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So there's a global pandemic, massive financial shock, Brexit and prices go up 8.5%.

So what's the consensus then? If you were considering buying now? Or advising your children? Buy now before they go up anymore? Or wait and see if they come down and possibly have to pay even more later?

With interest rates and QE it seems the majority on here now think prices will continue rising in the short to medium term at least. And this is housepricecrash.co.uk.

Depressing.

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7 minutes ago, Racing Piglet said:

So there's a global pandemic, massive financial shock, Brexit and prices go up 8.5%.

So what's the consensus then? If you were considering buying now? Or advising your children? Buy now before they go up anymore? Or wait and see if they come down and possibly have to pay even more later?

With interest rates and QE it seems the majority on here now think prices will continue rising in the short to medium term at least. And this is housepricecrash.co.uk.

Depressing.

I felt like 2017 was as good as it was going to get for me buying a place - in the run up to Brexit the market was going strong, tonnes of viewings and prices climbing so I felt pretty helpless. After the Leave vote I was actually nervous and delighted in equal measure. I'd been keeping a keen eye on things and it took a year to find something I wanted. It ticked almost all of the boxes (and will actually tick another one shortly when they do the local road changes and make it a no through road!). 

Anyway, between 2016 and about 2019 it felt like if anything houses were getting cheaper in the SE (at least in real terms anyway). AS you say, now all that money has been pumped out into the economy, rates are super low and possibly getting lower and Brexit is actually more or less done I think people feel confident again. 

Don't take this next bit as bragging but I am saving at least £2.5K/month at the moment from not being able to do much at all. It would be higher if my partner hadn't lost her job but there it is. Point is I'm not alone in being lucky enough to have a decent job working remotely and big reductions in outgoings. The money I'm saving will ultimately go into the house with a new extension and large outbuilding planned in the next year or two. 

I would say if the right place ticking all boxes comes up and your financially secure (as you can be these days) then go for it. If not then I'd be included to wait a little. OI suspect the end of the SDLT holiday will take some froth out of the market and things will slow back down but not markedly and I'd simply use the slower market to drive a harder bargain when putting in an offer but don't expect a crazy reduction. 

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4 hours ago, Sprrite said:

I'm starting to wonder if the data has been skewed on high value properties as the number of transactions for 2020 must be down from 2019 although I haven't checked this in detail. I wonder if there's granular data that does a deep dive in segmentation of value from 2019 to 2020 which would be interesting to see.

Houses with outdoor space and gardens will have boomed but flats and smaller properties will have probably flattened or decreased. Anecdotally I'm still seeing reductions for flats in London.

Pries have been inflated by giving out furlough pay and small business loans.

The idiots have poured the money into rental over summer, just as all the tenants stared disappearing.

Prices since Nov have started to fall.

Youll see a rise, then a similar size drop in the next release.

Seriously, Banks are not lending. 

Its idiots putting furlough cash and own house as secutiity.

 

 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Pries have been inflated by giving out furlough pay and small business loans.

The idiots have poured the money into rental over summer, just as all the tenants stared disappearing.

Prices since Nov have started to fall.

Youll see a rise, then a similar size drop in the next release.

Seriously, Banks are not lending. 

Its idiots putting furlough cash and own house as secutiity.

Funnily enough i know a bloke that took the 50k and just went out and rented a beautiful house in the middle of nowhere. 

On the lending point have you got any data? What I'm hoping for is an improvement in terms later this year for my remortgage. I think the lenders were able to pick and choose and restricted demand with hight ltv (no problem for me) and higher interest rates (let's face it never ideal for anyone with debt).

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5 hours ago, dugsbody said:

I bought a house during the stamp duty cut. I'm happy to explain why if you like.

Whether or not it's cheaper than renting depends on the market in your area, but it's not a saving, it's a transfer of money.

Short term effects

Deposit + Stamp Duty remains the same, more goes to the seller, less to the government.

  • Buyer: No Difference
  • Seller: Better Off
  • Government: Worse Off

Long term effects

Mortgage for larger amount, you pay more capital and interest to the bank over 25-40 years.

  • Buyer: Worse Off
  • Bank: Better Off

So Overall: Sellers (outright or downsizing) and Banks are better off, Buyers (FTB or upsizing) and Government are worse off and those moving sideways about neutral. FtB's and those upsizing would have been better off overall if the government had done nothing.

 

 

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25 minutes ago, adarmo said:

On the lending point have you got any data? What I'm hoping for is an improvement in terms later this year for my remortgage. I think the lenders were able to pick and choose and restricted demand with hight ltv (no problem for me) and higher interest rates (let's face it never ideal for anyone with debt).

Well there was an article in one of the papers just yesterday saying that banks were upping their multiples again, so no sign of reigning in the lending that I can see. Same applies to rates, which are as low as I've ever seen, although admittedly I don't keep much of an eye on it unless I am due to remortgage. Currently 2 year fixes around 1.2-1.3% and 5 years at 1.7% or so (60% ltv). Even less than we paid last time.

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1 hour ago, spyguy said:

Pries have been inflated by giving out furlough pay and small business loans.

The idiots have poured the money into rental over summer, just as all the tenants stared disappearing.

Prices since Nov have started to fall.

Youll see a rise, then a similar size drop in the next release.

Seriously, Banks are not lending. 

Its idiots putting furlough cash and own house as secutiity.

 

 

 

 

You have been saying "banks are not lending" since the summer if not before. 

The reality is there for everyone to see. 

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/home-loans

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6 hours ago, SurreyVisitor said:

Same here, it "saved" me £15K.  What is crazy is paying rent to somebody for years and years because you are too scared to buy a house incase prices fall.  In the mean time the landlord has enjoyed you paying tens of thousands of pounds of his mortgage and watched the value of his property increase.

I purchased a house for £525K in August 2020 in a road of 12 identical houses.  One opposite went on the market at Christmas for £595K and went under offer a couple of weeks ago.  Essentially we cannot afford to live in our house anymore.

Take a look around, the government are printing money like it is going out of fashion and it has to go somewhere.  

I think for a lot of people on this site, discovering it was the worst thing that ever happened to them.

There is tons of money sloshing around at the moment being put into Houses, shares and even Crypto.  If prices fell even slightly then this money would be pumped straight into the housing market.

8.5% in a year, I suspect people can't even save quickly enough to allow them to buy the house they could have bought a year ago.

People pay £15k to agents to sell a home.....I agree that money printing has to find a home, excuse the pun......but it is getting beyond a joke......those closest to the money are best easiest to reap the rewards.....saving to buy from taxed earnings, after pension provision and monthly rent,during a CoVid pandemic.......the growing divisions are clear to see and not getting any brighter......for some, but anything can happen, as it usually does.;)

 

 

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The figures are grossly skewed by middle movers as anyone can see the lower end of the market is dead in the water. 

While millennials will happily commit 30-40% of their take-home on mortgages that currently contain a very small portion of interest, the older generations are being more a astute and choosing now to cash in at the expense of these muppets. I’ve seen so many prestigious houses near me come onto the market these last 12 months and I don’t think that’s a coincidence - people are selling up for a reason.

If I scroll through recent sold prices I see lots of losses, lots of resales at the same 2014 prices but admittedly there are some daft prices in their too. 
 

Tomorrow I will jot down every sold price near me that also sold previously at some point in the last 5 years. I’ll do a quick tally of the average increase but I can already see it’s nowhere near 8% yoy. Lots of places to of resold are barely up 8% over 3 or 4 years. 

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6 hours ago, dugsbody said:

We previously owned a smallish three bedroom semi-detached, bought around 2012(ish). We have children now and wanted something larger and nicer nearer better schools. We both have demanding jobs in London. We are also keeping a vague plan to move to France (or another continental country) in the future. Paying £25k sunk cost to move to a new house, then discover you don't actually like the area, you don't like your neighbour, your plans change and you decide to move to France sooner rather than later was preventing us from living in a house more suited to our needs.

Then the stamp duty holiday came along and it meant we could save ourselves £15k on stamp duty. Having a larger place had become particularly important since we were both working from home and probably will continue to do so > 50% of the time in future.

At the same time a house appeared in one of my search areas that ticked all of our boxes and we really wanted it. Nothing quite as good (particularly with the right price) has come available in the last few years. So we jumped on it.

I may have paid a little more on the price of the house which in theory I could lose should we sell it again soon and if the stamp duty holiday ends and if prices revert a little, but I took the view that this was unlikely. I think we'd likely get the same price we paid, so we're better off for making this decision.

In a note of irony, we love the new area so much that we're not thinking about the move to France so urgently any longer and we may end up staying here long term. 

Worked out well for us.

Nice post. I too feel house prices are insane but not sorry I bought. <emph> y neigbours opposite had exactly that issue: Two adults working from home and a family needs space..

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10 minutes ago, dryrot said:

Nice post. I too feel house prices are insane but not sorry I bought. <emph> y neigbours opposite had exactly that issue: Two adults working from home and a family needs space..

There are plenty of places that can offer more space and land for less....why in the age of technology, distance learning and working, a cosmopolitan of diversity widely dispersed do people need to stay in a specific area that does not always offer value for money?;)

 

 

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38 minutes ago, winkie said:

People pay £15k to agents to sell a home.....I agree that money printing has to find a home, excuse the pun......but it is getting beyond a joke......those closest to the money are best easiest to reap the rewards.....saving to buy from taxed earnings, after pension provision and monthly rent,during a CoVid pandemic.......the growing divisions are clear to see and not getting any brighter......for some, but anything can happen, as it usually does.;)

That's the sort of fee You'd pay for selling a £1 million house 

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To me it's simple.

You get zero return on savings, you can chuck it into bonds/equities/crypto and risk losing the lot, or you can buy a house with cheap money and always have a house.

It shouldn't be like this, but as we all know it has been engineered to be exactly like this. 

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Good. Less argument to extend Stamp Duty holiday and more of a case to reform with a Wealth Tax. Let's see if Rishi has the true Blue Tory B*lls to do this or if he's happy just to shake the magic money tree.

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2 hours ago, Tulip_mania said:

Whether or not it's cheaper than renting depends on the market in your area, but it's not a saving, it's a transfer of money.

Short term effects

Deposit + Stamp Duty remains the same, more goes to the seller, less to the government.

  • Buyer: No Difference
  • Seller: Better Off
  • Government: Worse Off

Long term effects

Mortgage for larger amount, you pay more capital and interest to the bank over 25-40 years.

  • Buyer: Worse Off
  • Bank: Better Off

So Overall: Sellers (outright or downsizing) and Banks are better off, Buyers (FTB or upsizing) and Government are worse off and those moving sideways about neutral. FtB's and those upsizing would have been better off overall if the government had done nothing.

 

 

I don't agree with that logic but I'm tired of trying and I don't even care anymore since we never plan on living anywhere else in the UK. If we do move, it'll be abroad.

Best of luck.

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27 minutes ago, GeneCernan said:

To you it's simple, to me it's even simpler.

You get zero return on savings, 40% on the stock market since April you can chuck it into bonds/equities/crypto and make 300% in 6 months and risk losing the lot, or you can buy a VERY VERY VERY OVER PRICED house with cheap money and always have a house UNTIL THEY TAX YOU OUT IT, INTEREST RATES HIT 20 OR THERE IS A WAR AND YOU'RE DRAFT AND DIE FIGHTING TO PROTECT THE BANKERS.

It shouldn't be like this, but as we all know it has been engineered to be exactly like this. 

I felt that needed a bit of tidying up

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