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8 minutes ago, msi said:

Good. Less argument to extend Stamp Duty holiday and more of a case to reform with a Wealth Tax. Let's see if Rishi has the true Blue Tory B*lls to do this or if he's happy just to shake the magic money tree.

That;s what I though, why would the housing market need support between now and March 3rd when the whole thing is clearly booming.

How long before even the thickest of Brits start questioning Reobert Jenrick's house being better paid the the PM ?

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7 hours ago, Sprrite said:

I'm starting to wonder if the data has been skewed on high value properties as the number of transactions for 2020 must be down from 2019 although I haven't checked this in detail. I wonder if there's granular data that does a deep dive in segmentation of value from 2019 to 2020 which would be interesting to see.

Houses with outdoor space and gardens will have boomed but flats and smaller properties will have probably flattened or decreased. Anecdotally I'm still seeing reductions for flats in London.

It could be down to houses that sell get included in the Land Registry stats and those flats that now dont sell dont get included.  If those not-in-demand-anymore flats would sell if the price was lower, it will take time before people come round to accepting it, but until then don't get included to counter balance those that sold.

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its like a episode of place in the sun in here, all telling of your 500k properties while average joe dont earn that after tax in 20 years work and saved every penny by living on turnips in a ditch. and then i realised there all up to their eyes in debt. leveraged to the hilt like a teenage bitcoin trader. or their parents ashes are still warm on the mantlepiece. 

carry on im heading back to my northern sink estate but least i can buy pizza on a friday 

 

 

Edited by jimmy2x3
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7 hours ago, Nick Cash said:

It’s the K shaped recovery in action. Large sections of working population are significantly better off financially in the short term. They are saving huge amounts and spending on long term assets. Holiday homes in UK and larger properties for WFH have both boomed. I suspect that accounts for much of the 8.5%.

The rest of the economy is really struggling. That’s where the distressed sales will come from this year. 

So, some huge winners but many more losers. The balance is moving towards a crash. The underlying economic principles all point in one direction.

I think the polarisation is massively marked and been totally lost on some people.

I know a shop that is a zombie business selling fashion clothes....the new state benefits were a god send and they are so much better off. Loving the holiday. 

Hairdresser earns £15k a year profit....happy as Larry with premises subsidy and furlough. Again enjoying the time off. 

Painter decorator never been busier and claiming the £2.5k a month. Wishes that system and Covid would continue indefinitely. 

People from my old employer (very large finance company) all working from home. One saved £8k so far in commuting and just can’t spend their wages each month because the usual 4/5 foreign holidays have been curtailed. He spends £20k a year on holidays at least....so whilst unhappy he’s never been richer. 

There is a large portion who are awash with cash and this cohort are ‘moving’ house or ‘improving’ their house....

It’s been a weird economic disaster and when the money tree stops dropping pound notes things will change. 

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3 hours ago, Tulip_mania said:

Whether or not it's cheaper than renting depends on the market in your area, but it's not a saving, it's a transfer of money.

Short term effects

Deposit + Stamp Duty remains the same, more goes to the seller, less to the government.

  • Buyer: No Difference
  • Seller: Better Off
  • Government: Worse Off

Long term effects

Mortgage for larger amount, you pay more capital and interest to the bank over 25-40 years.

  • Buyer: Worse Off
  • Bank: Better Off

So Overall: Sellers (outright or downsizing) and Banks are better off, Buyers (FTB or upsizing) and Government are worse off and those moving sideways about neutral. FtB's and those upsizing would have been better off overall if the government had done nothing.

 

 

Good post. Everyone's circumstances are different but I wonder how many have bought without fully appreciating the above.

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4 hours ago, mattyboy1973 said:

Well there was an article in one of the papers just yesterday saying that banks were upping their multiples again, so no sign of reigning in the lending that I can see. Same applies to rates, which are as low as I've ever seen, although admittedly I don't keep much of an eye on it unless I am due to remortgage. Currently 2 year fixes around 1.2-1.3% and 5 years at 1.7% or so (60% ltv). Even less than we paid last time.

Yes this is correct - banks are currently increasing income multiples because Covid is over (well, of course it isn't but these are banks we're talking about here!).

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1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

That;s what I though, why would the housing market need support between now and March 3rd when the whole thing is clearly booming.

How long before even the thickest of Brits start questioning Reobert Jenrick's house being better paid the the PM ?

True blue? Come on look at them - they're a bunch of spivs! 

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1 hour ago, Pop321 said:

I think the polarisation is massively marked and been totally lost on some people.

I know a shop that is a zombie business selling fashion clothes....the new state benefits were a god send and they are so much better off. Loving the holiday. 

Hairdresser earns £15k a year profit....happy as Larry with premises subsidy and furlough. Again enjoying the time off. 

Painter decorator never been busier and claiming the £2.5k a month. Wishes that system and Covid would continue indefinitely. 

People from my old employer (very large finance company) all working from home. One saved £8k so far in commuting and just can’t spend their wages each month because the usual 4/5 foreign holidays have been curtailed. He spends £20k a year on holidays at least....so whilst unhappy he’s never been richer. 

There is a large portion who are awash with cash and this cohort are ‘moving’ house or ‘improving’ their house....

It’s been a weird economic disaster and when the money tree stops dropping pound notes things will change. 

If, not when 

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One thing to remember is the recruitment sector is in a bad place. A signficantly lower number of jobs coming through (I'm hearing numbers around 25-30% down on this time last year). Re: wage inflation - my "boom sector" is seeing day rates fall for contractors. 

Brexit is having a huge impact too... 700,000 foreign born immigrants along have left London a returned home. Huge demographic shifts that are not in the housing market's favour. 

So the money isn't there in the real economy, hence the spivving on steroids. Rishi and his pals can only keep the balls in the air for a bit longer, of that I have no doubt whatsoever. Enjoy the show while it lasts! 

Edited by gruffydd
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14 minutes ago, gruffydd said:

So the money isn't there in the real economy, hence the spivving on steroids. Rishi and his pals can only keep the balls in the air for a bit longer, of that I have no doubt whatsoever. Enjoy the show while it lasts! 

I want to share your sentiment, but the balls have been in the air for 20 years now.  When a global pandemic isn't allowed to crash houseprices, what will?

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3 hours ago, Pop321 said:

I think the polarisation is massively marked and been totally lost on some people.

I know a shop that is a zombie business selling fashion clothes....the new state benefits were a god send and they are so much better off. Loving the holiday. 

Hairdresser earns £15k a year profit....happy as Larry with premises subsidy and furlough. Again enjoying the time off. 

Painter decorator never been busier and claiming the £2.5k a month. Wishes that system and Covid would continue indefinitely. 

People from my old employer (very large finance company) all working from home. One saved £8k so far in commuting and just can’t spend their wages each month because the usual 4/5 foreign holidays have been curtailed. He spends £20k a year on holidays at least....so whilst unhappy he’s never been richer. 

There is a large portion who are awash with cash and this cohort are ‘moving’ house or ‘improving’ their house....

It’s been a weird economic disaster and when the money tree stops dropping pound notes things will change. 

Elysium 3.0

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29 minutes ago, msi said:

I want to share your sentiment, but the balls have been in the air for 20 years now.  When a global pandemic isn't allowed to crash houseprices, what will?

It was never going to be allowed to crash houseprices, yet the economic fundamentals are incredibly weak right now... the moment of maximum risk is when the economy emerges from the Covid stimulus (as countless economists have been warning). 

We will suffer this heightened risk together with the incoming impact of the US stimulus which will feed through to inflation here pretty quickly - probably boosting HPI and other asset price inflation too, for a while... but ultimately it will destabilize both N America and Europe... a family member who is a banker told me least week that the only bright spot is China / SE Asia... the sun is about to set on Anglo-America (if you give it a few months...).

 

Edited by gruffydd
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52 minutes ago, longgone said:

From what a loan ?

Nah. The insanity is you can get the self employed grant and still work.... Nice eh?! 

At least they pay a tax premium over those mugs paying PAYE, working and not getting furlough.. Oh wait... 

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7 hours ago, captainb said:

Nah. The insanity is you can get the self employed grant and still work.... Nice eh?! 

At least they pay a tax premium over those mugs paying PAYE, working and not getting furlough.. Oh wait... 

 Yeah it's a joke. Not to mention the NI advantage and general advantage of running a cash ledger and an official ledger..... i mean..... After all..... How would anyone ever find out?

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10 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

If, not when 

Fair comment. 

9 hours ago, longgone said:

From what a loan ?

A non repayable furlough grant. Yummy.😉

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1 minute ago, Pop321 said:

Fair comment. 

A non repayable furlough grant. Yummy.😉

A mate of mine is getting these grants. Somehow though the 80% Isn't eigh to keep things going for him despite having no travel..... something doesn't quite stack up. I suspect he's got (used to have) a fair bit of undeclared income. 

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13 hours ago, captainb said:

You have been saying "banks are not lending" since the summer if not before. 

The reality is there for everyone to see. 

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/home-loans

That shows fewer mortgages being sold than 2019.

Most of the increase in sales post June are going to be sales pulled forward from 2021.

Wait and see th numbers for the year and next (2021).

 

 

 

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