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SurreyVisitor

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  1. Once this comes in the market will go crazy. We will be out of lockdown, the weather will be better and people will have saved money over the last 12 months. Suddenly those people who thought they would never be able to get a 20% deposit together will have the 5% required. It is going to be carnage, it is going to be open house inspections and houses going to sealed bids. If prices went up 8% last year when we were in lockdown, I can easily see this adding another 10% to prices over the next 12 months. For those of you who are in a position to buy but are waiting for the fabled crash prophecy my advice would be to buy now.
  2. Spot on, the actual price of the property is irrelevant, it is how cheap you can borrow the money. A third of people rent now and a large percentage of these are priced out of owning property forever. We are rapidly heading towards a situation where you either own 2+ properties or none. For every example of a delivery driver who can never afford a house there is someone who can pretty much buy a second house for cash. In reducing interest rates the knock on effect is effectively forcing people to spend their savings. What is the point of having six figures in the bank when the best you can hope for is 0.5%. Much better to put it towards a BTL which will give you an income for life and will increase in value year on year. Property is different to Crypto, Shares, Classic Cars etc. as it actually is a basic requirement, everybody needs somewhere to live. Also with Covid forcing everybody to stay home, having a nice property is a higher priority for most people than ever. My advice to anyone who can afford to buy but is holding off for the crash is to buy a house, stop worrying about it and get on with life.
  3. Same here, it "saved" me £15K. What is crazy is paying rent to somebody for years and years because you are too scared to buy a house incase prices fall. In the mean time the landlord has enjoyed you paying tens of thousands of pounds of his mortgage and watched the value of his property increase. I purchased a house for £525K in August 2020 in a road of 12 identical houses. One opposite went on the market at Christmas for £595K and went under offer a couple of weeks ago. Essentially we cannot afford to live in our house anymore. Take a look around, the government are printing money like it is going out of fashion and it has to go somewhere. I think for a lot of people on this site, discovering it was the worst thing that ever happened to them. There is tons of money sloshing around at the moment being put into Houses, shares and even Crypto. If prices fell even slightly then this money would be pumped straight into the housing market. 8.5% in a year, I suspect people can't even save quickly enough to allow them to buy the house they could have bought a year ago.
  4. We bought our house in August and completed in October 2020. There are two rows of 6 houses in our square, before we had even completed one was on the market for £30K more than we paid and sold. All are two up two down Victorian terrace houses with slightly different layouts, but all are two bedroom with the same footprint. In December another one went on the market for £70K more than we paid. Ours was fully renovated (the previous owners spent £100K plus on it) and this one has not been touched for 10/15 years. It also has a tiny second bedroom due to how the bathroom was added. I thought they had no chance due to the condition and the stamp duty holiday ending but we kept seeing people turn up for viewings. Checking again last week I was amazed to see it had gone SSTC. Having spoken to the owner he admitted he was trying his luck with the price but said he would rip their arm of if they offered it. There are now literally no houses for sale in any of the 10 roads near us. Anything that is vaguely house shaped and under £750K is selling in weeks. Houses slightly further out from where we are in not such a good location are now more than prices were here six months ago. It is absolutely crazy, we can't even afford to live in our road four months after moving in. Don't bank on this crash, the government are printing far too much money and it needs to go somewhere.
  5. So for all of those who have recently persuaded friends and family to invest in Crypto, what do you say to them now? If you had to persuade them to invest it clearly means they don't understand Crypto and hence should not have invested in the first place. What do you say to them when they say "You told me to invest in this and now it has dropped 25% today, what do I do?". I personally would never tell anybody what to invest in for this very reason.
  6. What about since the London Tonight article in 2005 when a group of HPCers were bragging how they had sold to rent their London properties and were going to buy in after the inevitable crash. I am guessing prices have increased 300% by then. Your post raises an interesting point, that even if we had a 15% fall in prices we would only be back to where we were 2 or 3 years ago. Remember 2 or 3 years ago when people on this site were not prepared to buy because prices were too high? Why would you suddenly buy a house after a 15% drop if you were not prepared to buy a house when they were that price only a few years before? This waiting for prices to fall is too much of a gamble, I am sure there are people who were holding enough cash to buy a house outright 15 years ago who now barely have enough for a deposit. You only winners in this situation are the people who bought, the people that have been called idiots on this site over the last 15+ years.
  7. I think that also applies to the majority of the chains that sprung from nowhere over the last 20 years. Think Las Iguanas, Garfunkles, Chiquitos, Frankie & Bennys, TGI Friday, Bills, Harvester, Wildwood, Giraffe etc. I think the problem is they kept increasing the prices and lowering the quality of what is essentially microwave meals. In the end people got sick of being ripped off and went elsewhere. You know it is bad when Nandos is always rammed for what is essentially chicken and chips.
  8. Those of you waiting for the crash, you cannot win. No matter how much cash you are sitting on the government are devaluing it day by day. They will go to any length to ensure house prices don't fall, and every time they do this your saved money as a percentage of a house gets smaller and smaller. While you are sitting on your money, terrified to buy there are endless people out there buying property with borrowed money without a care in the world. Compare a random person who happened to buy a house in the last 15 years with someone who rented and diligently saved instead. Who is better off? I am choosing to ignore the average HPC'er who obviously put their money into Crypto at exactly the right time and are sitting on a couple of houses worth.
  9. I have dipped in and out of this website for over 15 years now and not much has changed. The logic behind a house price crash is sound, it is just the lengths the government will go to avoid this were not appreciated. Here we are, in the middle of a global pandemic, hundreds of thousands of jobs have been lost, 25K jobs lost today alone with Arcadia and Debenhams, Brexit in under 5 weeks and...... House prices increasing at their highest rate in six years. For those that still hold the faith it is coming, what exactly do you think will be the trigger?
  10. Goldman Sachs Marcus account, they stopped new accounts a while ago. Don't get too excited, I have just received an email telling me it is going to be 0.5% from December 11th. For all those holding cash the government are screwing you over. The buying power of your cash is falling day by day and house prices are rising. The government don't want money hoarders, they are encouraging everyone to put it into assets, hence why there won't be a house price crash. All the time printing more and more through QE
  11. I have just ended three years of renting a 2 bedroom flat in Greater London, in that time I have paid the Landlord £47K. He has received £47K without even having to get out of bed, I am pretty sure he thinks it is worth it. Real world example. House - £325K, deposit £145K. £145K at 0.7% would be earning £84.58 a month Mortgage £180K at 1.61% interest only = £241.50 a month Rental income = £1100. £1100 - £241.50 (mortgage) - £84.58 (interest if the £145k was in the bank) = £773.92 Definitely worth it, especially if you have money in the bank earning no interest.
  12. Agreed, and we had it worse than the boomers as we didn't get the fantastic final salary pensions they got. Surely it is obvious that each generation has enjoyed less and less of the perks the previous generation enjoyed? The only way you can get on these days is with family money, if your family don't have any then you are screwed. My mother worked with a lot of middle class, privately educated children and the recurring theme used to be. 1)Fresh out of uni, single, first job and living in a period Victorian property. 2)Get married to someone similar, buy a £1 million house and keep both of their previous properties to rent out. I can only imagine they get given the £500K inheritance from granny early and put it into property, there is no other way they can do it. While the majority of people are scrimping and scraping to make ends meet there will always be a percentage of people who are a dead gran away from never really having to worry about money again. You cannot compete with people and it is why a house price crash will never really happen. There are far too many people with far too much money waiting to hoover up all the property.
  13. I started working in 1996 and things are way more difficult than they were back then. I would hate to be starting work fresh out of uni with £50K of debt in a massively competitive market with no hope of buying a house. My situation at 23 was 1)No student debt as fees were paid and I got a grant. 2)Walked into a £15K job that was £36K within 5 years. 9:00 to 5:30, no work mobile, no laptop, no overtime so as soon as I left at 5:30 I forgot about it. Using the bank of England inflation calculator I am earning less in real terms than I was then. 3)Bought my first house for £145k with a £7.5K deposit I put on my credit card. If I had graduated today it would be 1)£50K of student debt 2)Massive competition for roles and expected to work hard and stand out. The lines between work and home life are blurred due to working from home and constantly being contactable due to email and mobile phones. 3)No hope of buying a house without a £100K deposit. No hope of saving that deposit due to the student loads and massive rent. I can see why the young are terrified, add in the pressure of social media and it is a mental health time bomb. Unless your parents own multiple properties I can't see how you can ever get anywhere other than treading water. You can see why so many people in society just check out, go on benefits and don't bother competing.
  14. For me, it is just too risky waiting in hope of a crash, especially due to my age. I personally think the risk of prices increasing is worse than prices falling. In my example earlier, the thought of giving another £47K over three years to a landlord to pay towards his retirement and paying an additional £50K for this house is sickening. We were saving a good chunk each month and getting virtually no interest so paying towards a mortgage doesn't seem that different to me. Every month we are clearing £1271 from the debt, to me that is no different to sticking £1271 in a savings account. We are paying £537 a month in interest (which will decrease slightly each month over the term) but we were paying £1295 in rent with nothing to show for it. I also find it sickening that we paid 3.5 times more than one of our neighbours who bought in 1999. But I am sure we will look back and think thank god we bought when we did. I think the problem with waiting for a crash is the longer you wait the less likely you are to buy for fear of finally being proved right.
  15. In my area I would say flats outnumber houses 5 to 1. Decent houses seem to be selling in days, we are talking in the £700K to £1.5 million range. Flats do not seem to be selling and asking prices have definitely fallen a fair way. I looked at buying a flat in 2016 and asking prices in the same block are lower than they were back then.
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