Surveyors predict house price falls on the way

[user not found]

5 minutes ago, Switch625 said:

If you look at all the new builds that have been going up over the last few years, I would say we are about to face a very similar situation. Flats in big towns and cities in particular look exceptionally vulnerable as do HMO's in university cities and towns.

I think students will still want to live at uni (rather than study near home), but will prefer purpose build (and professionally managed) student accomodation. The grotty HMOs will swiftly drop in price.

[Switch625]

54 minutes ago, GregBowman said:

True - on a smaller scale got a mate saying we should all go out and eat and booze to help local businesses.

The pub near to me had a real crowd in their garden as soon as the new rules were announced, the following day was a ripper too. The numbers in the garden have dropped each night until last night perhaps four people sitting in an empty forest of tables. I will be interested to see how many are in there tonight and tomorrow.

[GregBowman]

19 minutes ago, Switch625 said:

The pub near to me had a real crowd in their garden as soon as the new rules were announced, the following day was a ripper too. The numbers in the garden have dropped each night until last night perhaps four people sitting in an empty forest of tables. I will be interested to see how many are in there tonight and tomorrow.

I love a boozer - City centre -Covent Garden, West End City - then local gastro pub or old fashioned no food wet pub - love the lot.

But my habits have  changed - if I feel that way what about people who were ambivalent about the pub which is the vast majority ?

[Switch625]

I lived on the edge of the City for years, my haunts were Central and the East End so we probably overlapped and who knows could have been in the same pub at the same time ?

I do like a good gastro pub still, but even before this occurred I wasn't going very often and certainly not tempted currently. It's difficult to see how the trend in pubs closing won't accelerate as a result of this.

[Peter Hun]

14 hours ago, xxxx said:

I work in the industry.  These are small/medium developers.  The developer puts the money in a SPV and uses it for the build.  If he goes under, your name gets added to the list he owes to.  50/50 chance of getting it back.

When the lender calls in the loan, administrators are installed who administer the SPV on behalf of the creditors. Who gets paid and how much is complicated, but secured creditors get paid first, unsecured get paid a %age of their debt  at the end of the administration. 

One point, anyone who performs work for an administrator gets paid, before any other creditor including secured. Its illegal for an administrator not to pay. So if a employee performs  work for a SPV in admin then he WILL get paid. This will ensure a development is completed and the units sold off to pay the creditors back, at the maximum return possible.

 

[GregBowman]

3 hours ago, Switch625 said:

I lived on the edge of the City for years, my haunts were Central and the East End so we probably overlapped and who knows could have been in the same pub at the same time ?

I do like a good gastro pub still, but even before this occurred I wasn't going very often and certainly not tempted currently. It's difficult to see how the trend in pubs closing won't accelerate as a result of this.

I am sure we did and would of got on famously ! My son said to me Dad this whole thing will just accelerate changes that are happening or would be happening over the next five years so totally agree 

[winkie]

3 hours ago, GregBowman said:

I love a boozer - City centre -Covent Garden, West End City - then local gastro pub or old fashioned no food wet pub - love the lot.

But my habits have  changed - if I feel that way what about people who were ambivalent about the pub which is the vast majority ?

What is clearly happening is moving away from artificial happiness... false manufactured niceness.....back to natural reality, nature, openness, honesty, colour, fresh air and brightness......all that is freely available to all, why pay for something that is not real someone said would make you feel good, it will not make us feel any better, only feel a lot poorer after the event.....?

[Switch625]

Winkie you may have a point, but equally it could just be that Greg and I are getting old ?

[HovelinHove]

I viewed a house today, and told the agent it was over priced especially after the B of E said prices would go down 16%. He said the market is the busiest he’s seen in 30 years...then he said that only people with confirmed offers on their houses could make offers on other houses (or cash buyers like myself). I hate EA lying scum.

[GregBowman]

11 minutes ago, Switch625 said:

Winkie you may have a point, but equally it could just be that Greg and I are getting old ?

LOL I get on well with my old friend Winkie but I think your closer to the truth although I appreciate nature of course. For a social ape like me unless its rammed and there is the chance of talking to all sorts of people loses its allure a little

I started walking the West End and City as an engineer for IBM when I was 21 so know it absolutely inside out. The trouble is that was 80/90's and then also got to know Canary Wharf

Perhaps now looking back I will know it as those halycon days when I could walk past The Ivy and book a table that evening and afford it as a young man with a girlfriend but no dependents

 

 

[GregBowman]

7 minutes ago, HovelinHove said:

I viewed a house today, and told the agent it was over priced especially after the B of E said prices would go down 16%. He said the market is the busiest he’s seen in 30 years...then he said that only people with confirmed offers on their houses could make offers on other houses (or cash buyers like myself). I hate EA lying scum.

House in our road priced right 30+ viewings went in two weeks is he lying I don't know 

[Pebbles]

29 minutes ago, GregBowman said:

House in our road priced right 30+ viewings went in two weeks is he lying I don't know 

indeed two gone sold on our road last week. seems to be a busy market here still. (Suffolk area)

[micawber]

42 minutes ago, HovelinHove said:

I viewed a house today, and told the agent it was over priced especially after the B of E said prices would go down 16%. He said the market is the busiest he’s seen in 30 years...then he said that only people with confirmed offers on their houses could make offers on other houses (or cash buyers like myself). I hate EA lying scum.

I think that there is a lot of activity right now. I'm looking too. I saw a house that I was going to try and 'engineer' a lower offer on, but it had SSTC within 2 days. Now, it may not actually Complete, and the activity may not last for more than a few months. Who knows. But I got the same spiel from the EA - "the market is bananas as people look to move post Covid".

[GregBowman]

4 minutes ago, Pebbles said:

indeed two gone sold on our road last week. seems to be a busy market here still. (Suffolk area)

I know this is  a bit of evidence seeking (we all do that don't we ?) but we are 35 mins from London on a slow train (minimum 4 an hour) overground station just gone to Oyster which facilitates 2-3 day working - the house was priced about £150k below a clean fully refurbed one so realistic apparently went over its asking  

[Switch625]

1 hour ago, GregBowman said:

LOL I get on well with my old friend Winkie but I think your closer to the truth although I appreciate nature of course. For a social ape like me unless its rammed and there is the chance of talking to all sorts of people loses its allure a little

I started walking the West End and City as an engineer for IBM when I was 21 so know it absolutely inside out. The trouble is that was 80/90's and then also got to know Canary Wharf

Perhaps now looking back I will know it as those halycon days when I could walk past The Ivy and book a table that evening and afford it as a young man with a girlfriend but no dependents

 

 

I was a student in the early nineties. Lived in shared student house £17 a week, then hospital accommodation in London for the rest of the 90's and early naughties similarly heavily subsidised. I used to get last minute tickets to shows and gigs across London, loved it and similarly walked everywhere, no car, no house, footloose and fancy free, happy days.

[Tit-In-a-Trance]

1 hour ago, micawber said:

I think that there is a lot of activity right now. I'm looking too. I saw a house that I was going to try and 'engineer' a lower offer on, but it had SSTC within 2 days. Now, it may not actually Complete, and the activity may not last for more than a few months. Who knows. But I got the same spiel from the EA - "the market is bananas as people look to move post Covid".

Lots of appetite to move, but actual ability? I guess we'll see come October. 

[iamnumerate]

43 minutes ago, Switch625 said:

I was a student in the early nineties. Lived in shared student house £17 a week, then hospital accommodation in London for the rest of the 90's and early naughties similarly heavily subsidised. I used to get last minute tickets to shows and gigs across London, loved it and similarly walked everywhere, no car, no house, footloose and fancy free, happy days.

Where on earth were you living? I paid a lot more than that outside London.

[cnick]

20 hours ago, xxxx said:

And it was full on panic.  Many developers have cut all costs and reduced staff to minimum.  They have been given payment plans from the bank stating how many houses have to be completed by when.  They are on the edge of defaulting trying to pay the interest from their loans.  When it was paused yesterday, the panic was intense, some didn’t complete until today.  Many are one house sale away from going under.

Surely all that's needed is a little bit more stimulus......it's worked before.....

...... oh wait.....

[mrtickle]

2 hours ago, HovelinHove said:

I viewed a house today, and told the agent it was over priced especially after the B of E said prices would go down 16%. He said the market is the busiest he’s seen in 30 years...then he said that only people with confirmed offers on their houses could make offers on other houses (or cash buyers like myself). I hate EA lying scum.

I hope you called him on that lie to his face? The law says he MUST pass on ANY AND ALL OFFERS. No ifs or buts.

It's really important they are taught that we won't tolerate their lies any more.

 

[Switch625]

1 hour ago, iamnumerate said:

Where on earth were you living? I paid a lot more than that outside London.

It was glorious Costa Del Whitechapel, where I shared the house with five or six other reprobates and several semi-tame rats until we evicted them.

When I moved in I filled a skip with the rubbish in my room, painted it, laid a new carpet, hung a new door and kitted it out with old furniture from the morgue which was being refurbished at the time. Total cost was under £50 and most of that was the new bed. That was proper student living! East End geezer me ?.

[GregBowman]

1 hour ago, mrtickle said:

I hope you called him on that lie to his face? The law says he MUST pass on ANY AND ALL OFFERS. No ifs or buts.

It's really important they are taught that we won't tolerate their lies any more.

 

I bought a house once at a lower offer because the guys who should of been the next slot turned up early were rude and blocked my car in. They made an offer £20k higher than mine

The EA's are just people trying to get through the day like anyone else....I got on well with him and was polite should he have passed their offer on ? 

Laws - For the total obedience of idiots and the guidance of wise men putting it in capitals won't change the human element

[blackhole]

2 minutes ago, GregBowman said:

Laws - For the total obedience of idiots and the guidance of wise men putting it in capitals won't change the human element

Bingo.   The amount of amusing conversations I've had with various legal teams re: "application of law vs enforcement" is highly amusing, and insightful.

Edited July 10, 2020 by blackhole

[MarkD]

4 hours ago, HovelinHove said:

I viewed a house today, and told the agent it was over priced especially after the B of E said prices would go down 16%. He said the market is the busiest he’s seen in 30 years...then he said that only people with confirmed offers on their houses could make offers on other houses (or cash buyers like myself). I hate EA lying scum.

I hate to burst your bubble, but he’s not lying! Unusual I know, and I’ve been trying to work out why the market is so buoyant? The only thing I can think is that people don’t understand, or realise what a recession is.

The last recession was a non event, and unless you’re over 40/45 you won’t have experienced the 80’s or 90’s recessions. For those of us who did listening to the chancellor of the exchequer declare the worst recession for 300 years strikes fear!

[Borg1234]

When will this worst recession for 300 years actually hit us? is it when the furlough scheme ends in October?

also as they say in the link below GDP declined 25% - February to April 2020 and The OECD projects that the UK will suffer the deepest downturn (a GDP contraction of 14%) among its members in 2020. If it took more than a decade to grow that much how quickly would be grow again to the pre covid economy will it take another decade or more? and surely that will affect house prices?

https://voxeu.org/article/risks-rapid-recovery-views-top-uk-economists

[HovelinHove]

15 minutes ago, MarkD said:

I hate to burst your bubble, but he’s not lying! Unusual I know, and I’ve been trying to work out why the market is so buoyant? The only thing I can think is that people don’t understand, or realise what a recession is.

The last recession was a non event, and unless you’re over 40/45 you won’t have experienced the 80’s or 90’s recessions. For those of us who did listening to the chancellor of the exchequer declare the worst recession for 300 years strikes fear!

I think you are right. I was out with 2 friends down the pub (Yay!) last night. Both think things will go straight back to 2019 by September. They don’t get it at all. these guys aren’t idiots. One owns 3 rental properties (no mortgages) the other has a business worth about 30 million. They do not understand what money is even though they have it. It will take over 10 years of tax 35 billion higher (7p extra on income tax if they went down that road, but will effectively be that whichever way they go) to pay back the debt. That much tax sucked out of The economy will Destroy jobs. 

I am going to offer 5% off asking (he’s already reduced by 5% recently), and then walk away and stick it out.