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House Price Crash Forum


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About blackhole

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  1. Well said, given up on this forum as virtually the same patterns emerge from the same set of posters. How dull. I'm always confused if these owner occupiers are so content & happy in their situation, why are they posting on HPC forum the same old **** each time? 🤔
  2. I'm not sure how much of the NI pricing is Brexit related, but you can see in Bloomberg/WolfStreet that shipping prices globally have shot up. How do you split the two events up?
  3. This is a global issue, USA port prices also shot up; not brexit per say but COVID which for a while caused a dip in production, and now we're seeing production come back online and companies trying to get their products into countries hoping to take advantage of the post-vaccination retail surge, amongst other things.
  4. Believe it or not the hospitality & travel industry is quite far fetching. Once you get out of the south east in many cases those sectors paid well enough to secure a mortgage.
  5. Simple really - more "help to" schemes, perhaps that 5% scheme turning up. The only problem is unemployment. (good chance it'll be a big one this time, even after a vaccine is deployed)
  6. Not just the UK, but the USA and EU are keeping their economies alive through sheer printy print / QE. "Markets" are now addicted to constant stimulus. Writing's on the wall as you say.
  7. TBH the longer they keep this charade going, the more likely we can kiss all this "wealth" goodbye. (bring it on - 2021 will make 2020 look like a small dumpster fire, IMHO)
  8. I think it might actually. You might as well call the current gov "new labour with a blue label" quite frankly. For some reason - maybe from not having a proper recession in 2008? - as a country we've seemingly forgotten why the bankruptcy mechanism exists in the first place. Now as a society we're absolutely terrified by the concept, when its simply a natural part of the business cycle.
  9. Fully aware, but I don't care tbh and I don't see why my generation and such should bail out your generation's pension pots. We can't even afford homes, so why the hell should we save your lot? Sod that. See above. My generation won't have a pension worth its salt by the time it comes around, provided they haven't pushed retirement age into 100 years by then. It's about time we faced our demons as a society. This all smells like extend-and-pretend to me. Like I said earlier even those in the commercial industry acknowledge its massively overpriced.
  10. Maybe its a good thing they go bankrupt and start again, afresh? Then as you say more sane business rates, saner commercial rents etc .... it cannot go on as is; something has to give. Even a chartered surveyor I know fully admits CMBS is in a massive bubble. Throwing more loans doesn't fix that fundamental issue. We're in extend-and-pretend forever otherwise, with the taxpayer on the hook.
  11. Retail was on its knees WELL before any of this. Targeted bailouts will just protect the CMBS industry to a degree, whilst leaving the businesses with loans they cannot service ... extend and pretend, basically.
  12. Jim Cramer's "Age of disorder" awaits the UK, as it does the US. As you say, either the existing government "owns" this disorder, or finds themselves replaced by it. I don't think politicians in the west have the guts to do what is right anymore, so disorder + political chaos it is.
  13. The issue is the state really has a limited playbook when it comes to "seismic events". Print, austerity, print, and goal seeking stats. The playbook is looking exhausted; there's only so much debt a system can take before kapow. Cgnao's right - prepare.
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