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Tit-In-a-Trance

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  1. Here's a weird anecdotal - might be a warning sign or maybe i'm reading too much into it. We sold our house pre-covid, and was working through process but pulled out when it looked like economy and house prices might tank - didn't seem worth the risk of loading up on debt when such uncertainty, and assumed majority of UK population would follow suit to be honest. Recently, despite still being fairly certain prices are on course for big a fall, we have relisted (i know, but the pressure to move is very high as current house is way too small for the family and it's been a painful 6 months!), and we've sold our house again recently to a ftb. This week we have received two letters from Estate Agents (not the one we're listed with), basically trying to drum up business from us, eg. "sorry you didn't use us for your sale, but get in touch and we'll help you find your next home ready for when you've sold yours!!". We never got any of this kind of marketing when we listed pre-covid, and if houses are "flying off the shelves" like they keep saying why are they wasting time/money trying to get our details, surely they must be inundated with prospective buyers(?!). Only recently I was reading VIs pieces in the press me they wouldn't even let you view if you hadn't already sold - they were so busy! I'm taking it as a sign that they have a lot of sstc houses on their books with very shakey chains, and bugger all new buyers coming up the ladder because very few FTB's at the moment with tightening of LTV. Might be wrong, but seems like a real sign of a slowdown now in progress. I think they've burnt through the pent up demand.
  2. Someone needs to explain this to me, as other than anecdotes of rich types at the top of a chain buying the bottom to close it out, how can the market actually function without FTB's or Investors/BTLs (who i would think are getting hammered at the mo with eviction bans and possibly less keen to invest right now) closing the bottom of chains? If Banks continue to tighten LTVs so only FTB's with mega deposits can get a mortgage, surely the market must grind to a halt, and chains collapse? Combined with job losses actually starting to hit wouldn't prices have to drop as sellers chase a very small pool of BTLs who would have their pick? Or does the Government just sweep in with another bung?
  3. Reports yesterday suggesting FTB activity dropping, and market being driven by Movers. Could we have a situation where mortgages are being approved for those with equity, houses going sstc into long chains and driving up the mortgage approval based pricing index's, but not actually leading to completed transactions? When does the land registry data start to drop to actually confirm all this is converting to actual transactions? Would be really interesting to see any changes in timescales between mortgage approval to actually completed transaction over the past few months. I'm just thinking through the practicalities of buying/selling. How many sstc agreements and mover mortgage approvals are in chains with a FTB at the bottom, who's AIP was potentially given 3-4 months ago and is now effectively worthless thanks to tighter requirements?
  4. U-turn ahoy! https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53810655 This has to be the most incompetent UK government is living memory!
  5. "For gods sake get back in the office! Don't you realise how much we've got invested in commercial property?!"...yawn.
  6. If this becomes a significant change to working habits, would it be correct to assume London salaries will drop though? When you're inflicting London bubble prices and/or a monster commute with associated rail costs on your employees the salaries have to be competitive and at least factor that in to some extent. But as recession hits, unemployment mounts, and wfh culture grows does this mean the scope of recruitment extends beyond London and commutable areas and the London salary premium will drop accordingly?
  7. Lots of appetite to move, but actual ability? I guess we'll see come October.
  8. Yeh, I wouldn't be surprised if they attempt some form of HTB v2. But i'm not sure how they will message it now. Pre-covid = "We're helping FTB's afford their first home, high demand, scarcity of resource (eg. not our fault, blame immigrants)" - misleading but resonates with a lot of Joe Public. But now? "We're helping FTB's afford their first home, whilst paying 80% of their salary until they likely lose their job, and lending as much as possible to their employers in the hopes they don't go into administration and the economy collapses. And all whilst the BOE predicts a 16% fall in house prices..." But then that assumes the government even care what the majority of public think now. They've got a large majority and a full term -- maybe betting on anything they do now being chalked off by next election as "yeh but Covid innit"!
  9. Isn't stamp duty bugger all on FTB level housing though? £2500 on a £250k purchase from an online calculator. Would it actually make much impact in the face of the coming recession?
  10. Spot on. You don't have to look far to find forums where people are talking about still having their mortgage approved despite being on furlough. Those people haven't twigged yet that they are effectively unemployed. There are still people making offers that are in work for employers not yet heavily impacted from the forthcoming depression. They haven't twigged yet that their job security is likely to be shot in a few months and vacancies are already drying up. Lots of decision making based on the now rather than the near future. We need to wait for the "schemes" to wind up.
  11. I'm seeing this anecdotally in the area i look at, lots of lower end houses hitting the market chain free as landlords look to exit the market. At the upper end (+£500k) i'm seeing gradual re-listings of houses that were sstc at pre-covid asking prices, presumably as chains break down. We're only at the start of this, it's all forecasts, and indicators, and predictions in the media - these can all be ignored and rationalised away. It won't be until August onwards that reality starts to bite for a lot people. You've had countless years of HPI headlines, people who have bet everything on a single asset class, and the vast majority are unwilling to accept reality until they start seeing actual % fall headlines (and even then i expect people will try to convince themselves it somehow doesn't apply to their areas, or their type of house, or etc etc). I think it will be really interesting to see what happens when sentiment completely turns. A lot of the mumsnetters and MSE'ers i've read linked on other threads seem to think they'd never reduce their prices (particularly those at the top of chains), but wait until the market is in freefall, sentiment is in the toilet, and all that un-earned wealth is trickling away each month.
  12. He has no humility, and he isn't sorry. As soon as the rules actually had a negative impact on him, he ignored them and did what was best for him and his family. And he doesn't regret doing it. What's left of the governments integrity is blown. Lets hope they don't need to lock down again (possibly in winter over xmas!) because they'll struggle to get the widespread adherence they've had these past few months.
  13. Hi, long time lurker. Why would you take your son with you for a test drive, if you still felt partly unwell, your eyesight might be impaired, and you were unsure it was safe to drive? Sounds like a nice cover story for the sightings, that doesn't quite add up.
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