Surveyor - impossible to value houses - "might've gone down by 25%-50% I just don't know"

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

On 04/04/2020 at 09:28, spyguy said:

Surveyor is an idiot. He does not understand how the housing market works, thinking it someone stands apart from wages and jobs.

House will sell for ~4x the local income minus repeated expensive.

Find out what the local median wage is. Thatll cover ~50% of house sales.

Trying to a 'fit' a 30k income to a ~300k house is long over.

My bets bet for the UK is we'll have a very short, deep recession.

Then .due to the daft measures, we'll see moderate inflation.

A lot of low end profit less activity will end - think caual dining,. dog walk and all that crap.

Then UKGOV will look to recover some ofthe money wasted. This will have to be base on benefit reductions and probably more actin around public sector pensions ,which are the llumbering disaster that are getting closer and closer to beign a vast issue.

 

 

 

 

Short... nope. More like a long, slow and painful readjustment - heaven knows what is happening to the USA. The world will tilt towards Russia/China and away from the USA and its hangers on - the English speaking world has - on the whole - enacted failed and flagging responses, maximizing ongoing disruption (and death). 

There is so much economic disruption to contend with, and that will stay with us for sometime once the virus fizzles out/a vaccine is found. 

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

On 03/04/2020 at 19:51, iamnumerate said:

Sadly if prices drop by 50% I don' t think that they will be as affordable than when Blair took office - shows how much they have risen under BBC - Blair Brown Cameron.

a good point - heaven knows how much median wages will fall by too. 

[iamnumerate]

On 03/04/2020 at 21:25, Dorkins said:

Cameron left office 4 years ago, there have been 2 further PMs since then, both just as useless.

I know - but I don't think that prices have risen so much under them but I could be wrong.

If prices had been reasonable when Cameron had left, they still would be.

Also BBCMJ - sounds awful.

Although I do agree with you that they have been poor - but I don't think that they have made housing worse.

Edited April 5, 2020 by iamnumerate

[iamnumerate]

1 hour ago, gruffydd said:

a good point - heaven knows how much median wages will fall by too. 

It could be a wonderful time for people whose jobs are not affected and are not put into negative equity - for others awful.

[Belfast Boy]

Didn't the banks move from a lending model based on average incomes to a model based on individual household affordability? Both models require a degree of economic stability.

Currently, neither lending model is going to work due to economic instability. What are average incomes? What is affordable?

Edited April 5, 2020 by Belfast Boy

[longgone]

Hopefully cashbuyers will have some clout again. 

3 bed detached for 300k with routes to london would  be perfect.

[Locke]

On 03/04/2020 at 23:50, longgone said:

fuel i don`t need i can walk instead, rent i don`t pay communication i can do without. 

food buy a house grow your own 

You may not need it, but the guys who cart your food, clothing and tools around do.

Good luck to  you getting enough land to feed your family. 

By the way, fertiliser requires fuel to create so...

[Locke]

On 04/04/2020 at 00:04, Confusion of VIs said:

A few days ago I bought into Tesla, this years 40k ISA money for myself and wife, bit of a gamble but they seem far better positioned to come through this than the established manufacturers.

Why do you think that?

Are you able to show historical evidence from previous depressions to back up this idea?

[cbathpc]

On 03/04/2020 at 23:13, Confusion of VIs said:

If you devalue money by printing enough of it without any asset backing, unless you believe in the MMT, inflation has to follow.

Lots of people will have plenty to spend, millions or even tens of millions are sitting at home on full salary with no travel or entertainment costs. Some people may even find they have a deposit on a house when they are finally let out and I can see the government expanding help to buy, 30-40%loan,  to make sure they use it. 

Sat at home on full salary, wife on 80%. No nursery fees, no travel, no entertainment. 

Weekly shop being done at M + S, still got more money than I've ever had in my life. I won't be the only one in this situation

[cbathpc]

On 04/04/2020 at 18:24, Now or never said:

I was in a company meeting two months ago, we were told all recruiting now through HR - no more agencies. Apparently last FY agency cost amounted to over 200K, circa 3K for an advisor role on 16K.

Then the lowlife come back and tap them up for another position elsewhere - the cycle starts again.

Crazy industry. Ok we'll get you a software engineer who might be gash. He wants £40k per year, and we want £10k for sitting him infront of you. In 12 months i'll be belling him up selling him on a job thats £45k per year, and you can then give me another £10k

Nuts that people pay for it. Once the belt tightens these guys are the first in trouble

[LetsBuild]

Only 3% according to this - lol. Don’t worry, it’s all going to bounce back, no depression or anything! 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/06/house-prices-will-not-fall-far-despite-lockdown-says-study

[spyguy]

12 minutes ago, cbathpc said:

Crazy industry. Ok we'll get you a software engineer who might be gash. He wants £40k per year, and we want £10k for sitting him infront of you. In 12 months i'll be belling him up selling him on a job thats £45k per year, and you can then give me another £10k

Nuts that people pay for it. Once the belt tightens these guys are the first in trouble

I know it might come as a big shock to both HR and recruitment consultants but ... they cant magic up some high skilled, in demand person, willing to work for for 30k in the middle of London.

If they do mange to fill the role, at that salary, then its likely to be a dud.

Put the ad on monster andor local paper. Dont put £competive . Put the salary range and list of benefits, with numbers.

If you dont get any responses then you seriously ned to up the money.

If you get people in for interviews but no takers then you need to sack your management/HR.

And, like all people/orgs a company subcontract to, recruitment people work and act for themselves not your company.

 

 

 

 

[Si1]

6 minutes ago, LetsBuild said:

Only 3% according to this - lol. Don’t worry, it’s all going to bounce back, no depression or anything! 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/06/house-prices-will-not-fall-far-despite-lockdown-says-study

Says an estate agency.

[spyguy]

4 minutes ago, LetsBuild said:

Only 3% according to this - lol. Don’t worry, it’s all going to bounce back, no depression or anything! 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/06/house-prices-will-not-fall-far-despite-lockdown-says-study

House sales in the UK will collapse this year as the coronavirus pandemic puts the property market into deep freeze. But prices will fall by only 3% and will rebound next year, according to global consultancy Knight Frank.

In the first reassessment of the property market by one of the major forecasters, Knight Frank said the number of house sales in the UK would plummet from 1,175,000 last year to just 734,000 this year.

 

Oh dear, granidain journos.

Global consultancy. Then major forecaster.

I wish I was clever, like a journo.

I probably just google, to check

https://www.knightfrank.co.uk/

Despite the blather, they are estate agents.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/knight-frank-profits-hit-by-fall-off-in-top-property-sales-8mrvnn06m

 

 

 

[Si1]

10 minutes ago, spyguy said:

House sales in the UK will collapse this year as the coronavirus pandemic puts the property market into deep freeze. But prices will fall by only 3% and will rebound next year, according to global consultancy Knight Frank.

In the first reassessment of the property market by one of the major forecasters, Knight Frank said the number of house sales in the UK would plummet from 1,175,000 last year to just 734,000 this year.

 

Oh dear, granidain journos.

Global consultancy. Then major forecaster.

I wish I was clever, like a journo.

I probably just google, to check

https://www.knightfrank.co.uk/

Despite the blather, they are estate agents.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/knight-frank-profits-hit-by-fall-off-in-top-property-sales-8mrvnn06m

 

 

 

Reminds me of the Boe's panicky response

[Smiley George]

10 minutes ago, spyguy said:

House sales in the UK will collapse this year as the coronavirus pandemic puts the property market into deep freeze. But prices will fall by only 3% and will rebound next year, according to global consultancy Knight Frank.

In the first reassessment of the property market by one of the major forecasters, Knight Frank said the number of house sales in the UK would plummet from 1,175,000 last year to just 734,000 this year.

 

Oh dear, granidain journos.

Global consultancy. Then major forecaster.

I wish I was clever, like a journo.

I probably just google, to check

https://www.knightfrank.co.uk/

Despite the blather, they are estate agents.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/knight-frank-profits-hit-by-fall-off-in-top-property-sales-8mrvnn06m

 

 

 

 

[Confusion of VIs]

3 hours ago, Locke said:

Why do you think that?

Are you able to show historical evidence from previous depressions to back up this idea?

Much more vertically integrated production, and far fewer components and suppliers.

They will be up and running long before the established manufacturers.  In fact their Chinese plant is already back and running at full capacity.

[Confusion of VIs]

2 hours ago, cbathpc said:

Sat at home on full salary, wife on 80%. No nursery fees, no travel, no entertainment. 

Weekly shop being done at M + S, still got more money than I've ever had in my life. I won't be the only one in this situation

I forgot about nursery fees/child care. For many people that's the biggie.

[Locke]

27 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Much more vertically integrated production

What does this mean?

I would have serious concerns about the cash they have been burning even before this WuFlu crisis. I don't think investors will be so generous moving forwards.

28 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

They will be up and running long before the established manufacturers.  In fact their Chinese plant is already back and running at full capacity.

Perhaps, but the auto market was already saturated, so I don't think the demand is there even for regular vehicles and in any case, I would have doubts about claims of Chinese manufacturing being up and running.

As a side note: I can believe that China is getting back up to capacity, however, I think this means that the numbers of deaths they reported are a total fairytale. I think that tens of millions of people have died, but that they accepted that as the cost of allowing the economy to get back on its feet.

[Locke]

30 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

I forgot about nursery fees/child care. For many people that's the biggie.

I have always found this insistence of mothers to dump their kids off with strangers so that they can traipse off and earn effectively far below minimum wage when the childcare is taken into account, annoying and irresponsible.

[btl_hater]

Just now, Locke said:

I have always found this insistence of mothers to dump their kids off with strangers so that they can traipse off and earn effectively far below minimum wage when the childcare is taken into account, annoying and irresponsible.

Children can get a lot out of the interaction with other small children and the activities a day care can offer. Do you have kids?

[Locke]

6 minutes ago, btl_hater said:

Children can get a lot out of the interaction with other small children and the activities a day care can offer. Do you have kids?

Not yet.

Understand, I am fully in support of social networking and gathering, but I think that it must be done 100% by the parents. It is neglectful and irresponsible to hand your toddlers off to strangers.

My sister is [was] a daycare nurse and she is disgusted by the other women who work and particularly run these places. She was going to quit actually before WuFlu struck.

[Si1]

9 minutes ago, btl_hater said:

Children can get a lot out of the interaction with other small children and the activities a day care can offer. Do you have kids?

+1

Stone age tribes share the child care duties in the village. Looks like we evolved that trait. 

[cbathpc]

43 minutes ago, Locke said:

I have always found this insistence of mothers to dump their kids off with strangers so that they can traipse off and earn effectively far below minimum wage when the childcare is taken into account, annoying and irresponsible.

Going to work is a bit of a break for the wife as much as anything. If she stopped working till school, she'd be starting from nothing. I think a lot of women work part time during the early years so they still have a place in the world once they child is grown up.

 

That said I know you're a troll, sooo.

[Confusion of VIs]

39 minutes ago, Locke said:

What does this mean?

Tesla have far fewer suppliers as a much higher proportion of the car of is built in house. Less chance of production being held up because a supplier fails or is slow to resume production.

39 minutes ago, Locke said:

I would have serious concerns about the cash they have been burning even before this WuFlu crisis. I don't think investors will be so generous moving forwards.

They were lucky in that respect having just completed a capital raising exercise at a very high share price. If this had happened a year ago they would have been in serious trouble.

39 minutes ago, Locke said:

Perhaps, but the auto market was already saturated, so I don't think the demand is there even for regular vehicles and in any case, I would have doubts about claims of Chinese manufacturing being up and running.

They have the benefit of a huge order book. Even if demand drops for at least a year that will just mean people having a shorter wait for delivery. 

39 minutes ago, Locke said:

As a side note: I can believe that China is getting back up to capacity, however, I think this means that the numbers of deaths they reported are a total fairytale. I think that tens of millions of people have died, but that they accepted that as the cost of allowing the economy to get back on its feet.

I can believe the real figure is up to 10 times higher but no more than that.

The effect of the lockdowns in other countries show that it is possible to contain it if you act quickly and China did.

I think that like most countries the death toll will be an accurate reflection of hospital deaths, with a much larger number of uncountable deaths happening outside of hospital.