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Surveyor - impossible to value houses - "might've gone down by 25%-50% I just don't know"


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HOLA442
14 hours ago, jaseywasey said:

Expect to see the adoption of a "make do & mend culture"; the end of globalisation, the end of cheap international travel, the end of immigration and the start of countries making their own products that are expensive, but built to last. And laws passed to ensure the UK can produce enough food and medical equipment for its own needs.

Won't happen, despite it being a wet dream for some people.

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13 hours ago, longgone said:

nope  

seems those advocating high inflation probably own a home and have money invested in stocks. ;) 

Not advocating it, just predicting. Governments could not have shown their hand more clearly over the last 15 years. 

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1 minute ago, dugsbody said:

Not advocating it, just predicting. Governments could not have shown their hand more clearly over the last 15 years. 

But how are they going to keep doing it ?  wages don`t go up.  only way would probably bring in a Citizens income 

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3 minutes ago, longgone said:

But how are they going to keep doing it ?  wages don`t go up.  only way would probably bring in a Citizens income 

I think you mean real wages don't go up and that is precisely what we're saying. Nominal wages go up but because of inflation, your purchasing power does not. 

eg:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/kgq2/qna

or

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/articles/supplementaryanalysisofaverageweeklyearnings/august2018

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2 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

I think you mean real wages don't go up and that is precisely what we're saying. Nominal wages go up but because of inflation, your purchasing power does not. 

eg:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/kgq2/qna

or

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/articles/supplementaryanalysisofaverageweeklyearnings/august2018

i have to disagree the job boards and agency pimps have a different set of rules.  there has been no wage inflation at all for over a decade. 

only inflation of assets, borrowing can`t be made cheaper hence HTB 

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3 hours ago, Voice of Doom said:

And the Great Depression was, funnily enough, deflationary.

Can we really compare then with now? We have a fait based currency and an electronic printing press. Yes, we are currently in deflation. Don't count out...

QE to infinity and beyond!

 

231299main_Buzz3-xltn[1].jpg

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1 hour ago, longgone said:

i have to disagree the job boards and agency pimps have a different set of rules.  there has been no wage inflation at all for over a decade. 

only inflation of assets, borrowing can`t be made cheaper hence HTB 

Well, I showed you the stats, can't do much more.

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HOLA449

OP wrote: "Just spoke to a surveyor who told me he could no longer value houses - he said he thought values may be down by 25%-50% yet he had no real idea..."

??? Why dpes'nt the surveyor follow the standard valuing process? (5 minute look at similar houses in a local EA and add 10%?)

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"Can we really compare then with now? We have a fait based currency and an electronic printing press. Yes, we are currently in deflation. Don't count out..."

Fair point about comparability. We were on the gold standard. Re. QE, can it avert deflation in the short term if unemployment sharply rises and businesses go to the wall? QE doesn't create demand and there will be very little in the near term.

I'm agnostic as to whether policy responses end up creating inflation in the medium- to long-term though.

Edited by Voice of Doom
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3 hours ago, longgone said:

i have to disagree the job boards and agency pimps have a different set of rules.  there has been no wage inflation at all for over a decade.  

Mark Gaisford had an interesting recruiters Webinar on linkedin yesterday had 6 recruiters all arguing that recruiters fees couldn't possibly drop as the quality of service would continue, and if anything rates may need to rise due to the skills needed to navigate the worse market conditions. 

They argued sure some recruiters might drop their rates.... But only because they are weak and don't have a USP.

Self important vermin in all sales/consulting/recruiting markets everywhere will be saying the same thing. Some of these markets will be a bloodbath. 

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I was in a company meeting two months ago, we were told all recruiting now through HR - no more agencies. Apparently last FY agency cost amounted to over 200K, circa 3K for an advisor role on 16K.

Then the lowlife come back and tap them up for another position elsewhere - the cycle starts again.

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10 hours ago, North London Rent Girl said:

Sadly, I agree. 50% would be but a start for many people. I might finally get to use my what-should-be-a-very-good-deposit savings, except I work for myself and am over the threshold so I might need to spend my savings if this thing really runs on. Am glad I developed a philosophical attitude towards my ineligibility to get anything back ever when I bust my wrist and couldn't work for a few months. Worker donkeys of the world unite.

We would have to agree on who we want to unite against.  For me - everyone who doesn't pay for their own housing and everyone who wants to stop more houses being built!

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1 hour ago, iamnumerate said:

Words fail me - it was not cheap then.

indeed average is around 2x the price but on some previously unfashionable areas and roads 3x the price from 2011 have been achievable 

i can`t see this virus taking much off if i`m truly honest with myself. 

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On 03/04/2020 at 20:07, jiltedjen said:

I would imagine a slight fall as deposits get eaten by living costs and unemployment and redundancies.

but probably only reversing about 2 years of gains. 

there is. A lot of pent up demand at price levels of even two years ago. 

the longer the crisis goes on the bigger a deal it will be. Three months of shutdown will wipe off two years off the housing market, anything longer suddenly amplifies the falls.

but the amount of printed money thrown at the problem will change a lot, flat out handing every FTB £10k of printed money, that kind of thing 

There has been so much disruption to the world economy (ongoing - and for how long? 3 years? 2 years? 1 years? Who knows - it'll be very challenging to go back to where we were. The USA, UK, Australia are all uniquely exposed due to failed responses. Laissez faire doesn't work with pandemics, the plonkers! 

 

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