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Surveyor - impossible to value houses - "might've gone down by 25%-50% I just don't know"


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HOLA441
18 hours ago, longgone said:

IT the hamsters of the work place jump off the wheel and you get crushed. 

Nah ? the underlying principles don’t change and the thick skin you generate from dealing with thousands of abusive users and the  Psychology Expertise you gain are priceless - many more tech background people in the board often COO’s 

Problem is most IT contractors don’t progress so are stuck in the wheel bit, it’s like a doctor not progressing from junior doctor ever 

I find my industry notoriously resistant to gaining the skills that will really move you on Sales/leadership/formal project management etc or create their own thing and employ a few people 

Their choice to stay in that wheel in many cases 

Edited by GregBowman
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HOLA442
1 hour ago, GregBowman said:

Nah ? the underlying principles don’t change and the thick skin you generate from dealing with thousands of abusive users and the  Psychology Expertise you gain are priceless - many more tech background people in the board often COO’s 

Problem is most IT contractors don’t progress so are stuck in the wheel bit, it’s like a doctor not progressing from junior doctor ever 

I find my industry notoriously resistant to gaining the skills that will really move you on Sales/leadership/formal project management etc or create their own thing and employ a few people 

Their choice to stay in that wheel in many cases 

Oh yes you need both of those skills recently i feel the fight or response coming back to me. , A good dose of blame deflection goes a long way too. ? 

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HOLA443
10 hours ago, nickb1 said:

Hmm, everything they taught us in economic history must have been wrong then.

Well, you got that right at least.

You mentioned unemployment and the output gap as preventing inflation. There are many historical examples that contradict this. The 1970s stagflation that was considered "impossible" under the Keynesian framework being the most obvious example.

10 years ago, a provocative thread about Britain being a potential candidate for hyperinflation would've received hundreds of replies. Deposit and STR funds were held in yen, francs and gold. This was very right for a time (2008-11), but was ultimately proved wrong.

Now, the forum, by and large is committed to deposit funds in sterling and buying the dip (20% and 2 months from the highest valuations in human history) in index trackers. It's also remarkably bullish on housing.

When it's not discussing the quality of Waitrose bread (Sainsbury's Taste the Difference thick-sliced is the best wholemeal on the high street in my view), HPCers seem to be fighting the last war.

After BusinessWeek's "The Death of Inflation" front cover last year, the prevailing sentiment on this forum should give contrarians pause.

https://www.ft.com/content/664c575b-0f54-44e5-ab78-2fd30ef213cb

Edited by 50sQuiff
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HOLA444
On 08/04/2020 at 08:04, Locke said:

I have always thought that home ed kids would be far more motivated to learn and enjoy it a lot more than the little prisoners chained to desks. I went to an excellent grammar school and I was bored out of my box most the time. I think that most subjects, the material could be learned within a couple of months at most.

I also went to a very good school and was bored a lot of the time. I think it is partly a matter of personality and how yo

You can learn a subject to GCSE level in a few months if its most of what you are doing, but it depends on prior knowledge, how good you are at a subject, and the subject itself - history, for example, has a really big syllabus so it needs time.

On 08/04/2020 at 08:04, Locke said:

I would be fascinated to hear about what you did with your kids and how you handled socialising and finding appropriate material to teach them, if you don't mind sharing?

Both my daughters went to school until they were 8,and we were abroad when they started. The older one went back to school for a while twice between 8 and 16 so our experience is a bit different from those who HE throughout or lived in the UK throughout.

One thing we did was to start on GCSE text books early. That also means that you can spread GCSEs out which is a lot less stressful than doing them all in one go when you are 16, and its easier to change your mind and drop or add subjects as you go. The older one sat her first when she was 11 and never sat more than 3 in one sitting. There are also vast amounts of online material these days, including things like MOOCs (in one case my daughter and I did the same MOOC).

As far as socialising goes we have not really needed to make much effort. The older one kept in touch with school friends. She is now at 6th form college so she started that in the same position as everyone else (they take kids from a lot of schools so not many people have friends doing the same subjects when they start). Incidentally she is the only girl in her year doing electronics A-level: something I put down at least partly to HE exposing her more to my interests

In terms of non-certificated education its helped a lot that both kids read a lot.

The younger one normally (obviously at the moment its all cancelled or taking place online) has art, drama and dance classes every week, she used to go to Guides, and sailing in the spring and summer so she has made a lot of friends at those.  As I said, because they are small classes with a greater spread of ages, and some are HE classes while others have mostly school going kids, she meets a wide variety of people.

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HOLA445
On 03/04/2020 at 17:20, Freki said:

As I told my GF, if one of us still has their job after this shit show, we are fine, 2 it is an opportunity of a lifetime

Yeah it will be.  Actually one good job will do it.  If you can get any surplus liquid together and you know what your doing you'll be the next generation middle class!

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HOLA446
On 09/04/2020 at 10:04, 50sQuiff said:

Well, you got that right at least.

You mentioned unemployment and the output gap as preventing inflation. There are many historical examples that contradict this. The 1970s stagflation that was considered "impossible" under the Keynesian framework being the most obvious example.

10 years ago, a provocative thread about Britain being a potential candidate for hyperinflation would've received hundreds of replies. Deposit and STR funds were held in yen, francs and gold. This was very right for a time (2008-11), but was ultimately proved wrong.

Now, the forum, by and large is committed to deposit funds in sterling and buying the dip (20% and 2 months from the highest valuations in human history) in index trackers. It's also remarkably bullish on housing.

When it's not discussing the quality of Waitrose bread (Sainsbury's Taste the Difference thick-sliced is the best wholemeal on the high street in my view), HPCers seem to be fighting the last war.

After BusinessWeek's "The Death of Inflation" front cover last year, the prevailing sentiment on this forum should give contrarians pause.

https://www.ft.com/content/664c575b-0f54-44e5-ab78-2fd30ef213cb

Right, glad I am now finally conversing the the possessor of the little known troof about all that then. 

My point was that printing money and spending it into the economy in a debt deflation scenario, as we seem to have now, is not inflationary. Stuff about this school or that school, Philips curve, Keynesianism etc. is beside this basic point.

 

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HOLA4413
1 hour ago, Saving For a Space Ship said:

Coronavirus: Currently 'no evidence' that COVID-19 survivors have immunity, WHO warns

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-no-evidence-that-covid-19-survivors-have-immunity-who-warns-11975011

Most of us have had a coronavirus before - several times a year in many cases. No vaccine yet for the common cold - or immunity from catching its multiple variants.

Maybe this virus will be the same - different variants on a theme continuing indefinitely?

But if there is no immunity and you can get reinfected then all we are in a whole different ballgame!  Cos if you can't build up immunity then any vaccine if discovered probably isn't going to work!

Edited by MARTINX9
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HOLA4414

Coronavirus: Currently 'no evidence' that COVID-19 survivors have immunity, WHO warns

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-no-evidence-that-covid-19-survivors-have-immunity-who-warns-11975011

Well, in my n=1, I had it about 6 weeks ago - swabbed at an NHS testing facility, came back positive. It was no real surprise as I was in a real mess for 2 weeks - Shortness of breath, fevers, muscle and lung pain, lethargy, the works. Went back to work (ICU / Emergency care) on March 27th. Have been face to face (literally) with hundreds of COVID-19 patients since, and I have had no further infection or symptoms. Now, we have all be gowning up, masks etc etc, but nothing is perfect. My other half is an ICU nurse - same thing, probably actually worse than me as I get to escape the wards for a bit every few hours whereas she doesn't. Again, no re-infection, she's fine.

Conclusion? Make of it what you will, but I would 100% back the once infected, not again theory. However careful I am with my PPE, it is inevitable that I will mess up from time to time - rub a bit of the gown against my naked forearm whilst taking it off, not put my mask on properly etc etc. In fact away from ICU on the COVID-19 wards, we are wearing an apron and a surgical mask that is like a thin bit of tissue across your mouth. Even less protection. 

It is bizarre in many ways when you rejoin the local population. A security guy in Sainsbury's today had to remind me to stand 2 metres away from the lady infront. It wasn't intentional on my part, but coming out of the hospital where I am 2mm apart from COVID-19 patients for large periods of my day, and then sat with my colleagues as an example in the doctors mess eating lunch about 2 feet apart due to lack of space, I just forget. I think if people were getting re-infected then the NHS would be in dire straights by now. We have all been, or all are currently riddled with it, and if there were repeat infections you'd be getting your ventilator setup by the ward clerk.

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HOLA4415
15 minutes ago, Twenty Something said:

Well, in my n=1, I had it about 6 weeks ago - swabbed at an NHS testing facility, came back positive. It was no real surprise as I was in a real mess for 2 weeks - Shortness of breath, fevers, muscle and lung pain, lethargy, the works. Went back to work (ICU / Emergency care) on March 27th. Have been face to face (literally) with hundreds of COVID-19 patients since, and I have had no further infection or symptoms. Now, we have all be gowning up, masks etc etc, but nothing is perfect. My other half is an ICU nurse - same thing, probably actually worse than me as I get to escape the wards for a bit every few hours whereas she doesn't. Again, no re-infection, she's fine.

Conclusion? Make of it what you will, but I would 100% back the once infected, not again theory. However careful I am with my PPE, it is inevitable that I will mess up from time to time - rub a bit of the gown against my naked forearm whilst taking it off, not put my mask on properly etc etc. In fact away from ICU on the COVID-19 wards, we are wearing an apron and a surgical mask that is like a thin bit of tissue across your mouth. Even less protection. 

It is bizarre in many ways when you rejoin the local population. A security guy in Sainsbury's today had to remind me to stand 2 metres away from the lady infront. It wasn't intentional on my part, but coming out of the hospital where I am 2mm apart from COVID-19 patients for large periods of my day, and then sat with my colleagues as an example in the doctors mess eating lunch about 2 feet apart due to lack of space, I just forget. I think if people were getting re-infected then the NHS would be in dire straights by now. We have all been, or all are currently riddled with it, and if there were repeat infections you'd be getting your ventilator setup by the ward clerk.

cheers for that

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HOLA4416
1 hour ago, Twenty Something said:

Well, in my n=1, I had it about 6 weeks ago - swabbed at an NHS testing facility, came back positive. It was no real surprise as I was in a real mess for 2 weeks - Shortness of breath, fevers, muscle and lung pain, lethargy, the works. Went back to work (ICU / Emergency care) on March 27th. Have been face to face (literally) with hundreds of COVID-19 patients since, and I have had no further infection or symptoms. Now, we have all be gowning up, masks etc etc, but nothing is perfect. My other half is an ICU nurse - same thing, probably actually worse than me as I get to escape the wards for a bit every few hours whereas she doesn't. Again, no re-infection, she's fine.

Conclusion? Make of it what you will, but I would 100% back the once infected, not again theory. However careful I am with my PPE, it is inevitable that I will mess up from time to time - rub a bit of the gown against my naked forearm whilst taking it off, not put my mask on properly etc etc. In fact away from ICU on the COVID-19 wards, we are wearing an apron and a surgical mask that is like a thin bit of tissue across your mouth. Even less protection. 

It is bizarre in many ways when you rejoin the local population. A security guy in Sainsbury's today had to remind me to stand 2 metres away from the lady infront. It wasn't intentional on my part, but coming out of the hospital where I am 2mm apart from COVID-19 patients for large periods of my day, and then sat with my colleagues as an example in the doctors mess eating lunch about 2 feet apart due to lack of space, I just forget. I think if people were getting re-infected then the NHS would be in dire straights by now. We have all been, or all are currently riddled with it, and if there were repeat infections you'd be getting your ventilator setup by the ward clerk.

Wow illiminating.

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HOLA4417
On 09/04/2020 at 10:04, 50sQuiff said:

.When it's not discussing the quality of Waitrose bread (Sainsbury's Taste the Difference thick-sliced is the best wholemeal on the high street in my view)

What's your opinion of Cranks bread, as sold by Waitrose?

I would say that Cranks is to (any) supermarket wholemeal sliced as Capstan Full Strength is to Benson and Hedges. ☺️

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HOLA4418
15 hours ago, Twenty Something said:

Well, in my n=1, I had it about 6 weeks ago - swabbed at an NHS testing facility, came back positive. It was no real surprise as I was in a real mess for 2 weeks - Shortness of breath, fevers, muscle and lung pain, lethargy, the works. Went back to work (ICU / Emergency care) on March 27th. Have been face to face (literally) with hundreds of COVID-19 patients since, and I have had no further infection or symptoms. Now, we have all be gowning up, masks etc etc, but nothing is perfect. My other half is an ICU nurse - same thing, probably actually worse than me as I get to escape the wards for a bit every few hours whereas she doesn't. Again, no re-infection, she's fine.

Conclusion? Make of it what you will, but I would 100% back the once infected, not again theory. However careful I am with my PPE, it is inevitable that I will mess up from time to time - rub a bit of the gown against my naked forearm whilst taking it off, not put my mask on properly etc etc. In fact away from ICU on the COVID-19 wards, we are wearing an apron and a surgical mask that is like a thin bit of tissue across your mouth. Even less protection. 

It is bizarre in many ways when you rejoin the local population. A security guy in Sainsbury's today had to remind me to stand 2 metres away from the lady infront. It wasn't intentional on my part, but coming out of the hospital where I am 2mm apart from COVID-19 patients for large periods of my day, and then sat with my colleagues as an example in the doctors mess eating lunch about 2 feet apart due to lack of space, I just forget. I think if people were getting re-infected then the NHS would be in dire straights by now. We have all been, or all are currently riddled with it, and if there were repeat infections you'd be getting your ventilator setup by the ward clerk.

Sorry to be cheesy.

But thanks for what you are doing both of you.

My business is closed the roads are empty but it is care home central around here and my business is on the main road and recently the only evening traffic is the ominous steady back and forth of ambulances.



 

 

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HOLA4419
16 hours ago, Twenty Something said:

Well, in my n=1, I had it about 6 weeks ago - swabbed at an NHS testing facility, came back positive. It was no real surprise as I was in a real mess for 2 weeks - Shortness of breath, fevers, muscle and lung pain, lethargy, the works. Went back to work (ICU / Emergency care) on March 27th. Have been face to face (literally) with hundreds of COVID-19 patients since, and I have had no further infection or symptoms. Now, we have all be gowning up, masks etc etc, but nothing is perfect. My other half is an ICU nurse - same thing, probably actually worse than me as I get to escape the wards for a bit every few hours whereas she doesn't. Again, no re-infection, she's fine.

Conclusion? Make of it what you will, but I would 100% back the once infected, not again theory. However careful I am with my PPE, it is inevitable that I will mess up from time to time - rub a bit of the gown against my naked forearm whilst taking it off, not put my mask on properly etc etc. In fact away from ICU on the COVID-19 wards, we are wearing an apron and a surgical mask that is like a thin bit of tissue across your mouth. Even less protection. 

It is bizarre in many ways when you rejoin the local population. A security guy in Sainsbury's today had to remind me to stand 2 metres away from the lady infront. It wasn't intentional on my part, but coming out of the hospital where I am 2mm apart from COVID-19 patients for large periods of my day, and then sat with my colleagues as an example in the doctors mess eating lunch about 2 feet apart due to lack of space, I just forget. I think if people were getting re-infected then the NHS would be in dire straights by now. We have all been, or all are currently riddled with it, and if there were repeat infections you'd be getting your ventilator setup by the ward clerk.

I wondered about the protective gear. It strikes me as fascinating that (and I'm not trying to sew any doubt) if you're correct, you think it is inevitable that people on the front line will contract COVID-19 despite PPE gear.

It is hard for a lay person to understand that, even if ones inclination is to suspect it to be true.

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HOLA4420
34 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

I wondered about the protective gear. It strikes me as fascinating that (and I'm not trying to sew any doubt) if you're correct, you think it is inevitable that people on the front line will contract COVID-19 despite PPE gear.

It is hard for a lay person to understand that, even if ones inclination is to suspect it to be true.

Unless you are in a hermetically sealed suit (the kind you might use in a Biohazard lab) and operate some pretty strict procedures on taking the suit off and decontaminating it, then it is almost inevitable given the amount of time exposure.

Couple that with over familarity (the more you are in a hazardous environment the less careful you get and the longer you are in a hazardous environment the more mistakes you can make) makes eventual exposure almost inevitable if the timescale is long enough and the PPE is not 100% efficient.

Also there is the degree of mental focus in a clinical environment. I work sometimes in hazardous areas and there are constant visual warnings that raise my awareness level, I'm constantly reminded. The work though is not that intense, so the reminders stick in your mind because you have time to focus on them.

But in a hectic environment if you are rushing round trying to deal with problems, your mind is on dealing with those problems and not on the hazards. I suspect clinical environments are more like this than the ones I work in.

 

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HOLA4421
18 hours ago, MARTINX9 said:

Most of us have had a coronavirus before - several times a year in many cases. No vaccine yet for the common cold - or immunity from catching its multiple variants.

Maybe this virus will be the same - different variants on a theme continuing indefinitely?

But if there is no immunity and you can get reinfected then all we are in a whole different ballgame!  Cos if you can't build up immunity then any vaccine if discovered probably isn't going to work!

Permanent lockdown then.

1984-John-Hurt.jpg

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HOLA4422
On 18/04/2020 at 22:03, Twenty Something said:

However careful I am with my PPE, it is inevitable that I will mess up from time to time - rub a bit of the gown against my naked forearm whilst taking it off, not put my mask on properly etc etc.

Seeing people in care homes putting on and taking off their PPE (on news reports) it looks like they’ve had no training in how to do it safely. So it’s only partially effective at best. But it makes people feel better on both sides.

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HOLA4423
12 hours ago, neon tetra said:

Seeing people in care homes putting on and taking off their PPE (on news reports) it looks like they’ve had no training in how to do it safely. So it’s only partially effective at best. But it makes people feel better on both sides.

You'd be quite surprised at how lacking the training is in the NHS too. We got a short video on the intranet and were then excepted to just get on with it. It's not rocket science, but there are plenty of areas you can slip up. We've been told that as of tomorrow we are going to run out of PPE, and therefore are moving to a stock of white hazmat type suits they have found somewhere. No idea how to put that on and off, and seems that not many others in the department do either. I know for a fact today that I rubbed my glove against my face whilst pulling off a bit of a sticky hood from my head that had tightened over the course of a morning. Given the entirety of my area is COVID positive, and I had seen pretty much the entirety of my area, I can guarantee that I have had another dose of COVID, so let's see how good my antibodies are! 

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