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Surveyor - impossible to value houses - "might've gone down by 25%-50% I just don't know"


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Just spoke to a surveyor who told me he could no longer value houses - he said he thought values may be down by 25%-50% yet he had no real idea because there is no clear end to the crisis because we don't understand the virus in enough scientific detail to map a route out of the crisis. Also, as he pointed out, the economy has been cratered and may take a decade to recover. 

What strange and awful times we are living through. I was far from gleeful. Sympathies to all who are struggling at the moment. 

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This surveyor seems to have broad expertise in many fields other than surveying houses for a valuation.

Any how if they go down that much the Banks will be insolvent (loss of up to £3.5Tn)...massive deflation which will be stopped.

So I doubt that many surveyors will be spouting that sort of line for much longer!

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Here they are saying that mortgage holidays, freezing the market and giving money from the state to workers hit by the crisis can masks house prices falls... the problem with this market is that everyone will look abroad to see what is actually happening out there. Let me be clear... the US will start seeing massive mortgages defaults, as they don’t have this measures at all.

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At the moment I think the market is essentially frozen - you just couldn't move house if you wanted to. 

Therefore right now there isn't really a market price - it's a case of #VALUE (for those famliar with Excel!)

There are so many moving parts to this it's hard to really know where it lands - the real values must go down, of course, and most of the factors would suggest a nominal house price fall too, but equally there are inflation-creating measures (QE etc) that work against that.

I don't really think we will see a clear picture until 6 months or more from now.

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19 minutes ago, Burbujista said:

Here they are saying that mortgage holidays, freezing the market and giving money from the state to workers hit by the crisis can masks house prices falls... the problem with this market is that everyone will look abroad to see what is actually happening out there. Let me be clear... the US will start seeing massive mortgages defaults, as they don’t have this measures at all.

Jingle mail is their solution isn't it?

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3 hours ago, gruffydd said:

Just spoke to a surveyor who told me he could no longer value houses - he said he thought values may be down by 25%-50% yet he had no real idea because there is no clear end to the crisis because we don't understand the virus in enough scientific detail to map a route out of the crisis. Also, as he pointed out, the economy has been cratered and may take a decade to recover. 

What strange and awful times we are living through. I was far from gleeful. Sympathies to all who are struggling at the moment. 

Sadly if prices drop by 50% I don' t think that they will be as affordable than when Blair took office - shows how much they have risen under BBC - Blair Brown Cameron.

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I would imagine a slight fall as deposits get eaten by living costs and unemployment and redundancies.

but probably only reversing about 2 years of gains. 

there is. A lot of pent up demand at price levels of even two years ago. 

the longer the crisis goes on the bigger a deal it will be. Three months of shutdown will wipe off two years off the housing market, anything longer suddenly amplifies the falls.

but the amount of printed money thrown at the problem will change a lot, flat out handing every FTB £10k of printed money, that kind of thing 

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10 minutes ago, jiltedjen said:

I would imagine a slight fall as deposits get eaten by living costs and unemployment and redundancies.

but probably only reversing about 2 years of gains. 

there is. A lot of pent up demand at price levels of even two years ago. 

the longer the crisis goes on the bigger a deal it will be. Three months of shutdown will wipe off two years off the housing market, anything longer suddenly amplifies the falls.

but the amount of printed money thrown at the problem will change a lot, flat out handing every FTB £10k of printed money, that kind of thing 

The government will already have decided the economy could not withstand a HPC so will provide whatever props are required to prevent it. The real HPC will come when they inflate away the probably £1Tn cost of the bailouts. The problem will be how to you keep the value of your deposit/house money intact while you wait for that to happen. 

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4 hours ago, Roman Roady said:

This surveyor seems to have broad expertise in many fields other than surveying houses for a valuation.

Any how if they go down that much the Banks will be insolvent (loss of up to £3.5Tn)...massive deflation which will be stopped.

So I doubt that many surveyors will be spouting that sort of line for much longer!

How are they going to stop the deflation, the central bank pays the bill on every contract? At that point there is no economy, just fraud and anarchy.

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1 hour ago, iamnumerate said:

Sadly if prices drop by 50% I don' t think that they will be as affordable than when Blair took office - shows how much they have risen under BBC - Blair Brown Cameron.

Cameron left office 4 years ago, there have been 2 further PMs since then, both just as useless.

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I like all these predictions of inflation. Is anybody here seeing a lot more money flooding into their bank account since this crisis started?

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1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

The government will already have decided the economy could not withstand a HPC so will provide whatever props are required to prevent it. The real HPC will come when they inflate away the probably £1Tn cost of the bailouts. The problem will be how to you keep the value of your deposit/house money intact while you wait for that to happen. 

Any props require borrowing, people won`t borrow when they are scared and locked down heading into Great Depression 2? The last one was a banking crisis, this is something from a SF novel, not really fixable with Monopoly Money.

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54 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

I like all these predictions of inflation. Is anybody here seeing a lot more money flooding into their bank account since this crisis started?

I agree, countless trillions destroyed on stock markets around the world. In the UK, the service economy cratered, possible record levels of unemployment, billions in property equity evaporated overnight, oil at multi-year lows, expected huge defaults on car leasing, zombie/vanity businesses bankrupted at a stroke, demand destruction everywhere.

AirBnBs being switched to long-term rentals at much lower pricing = DEFLATION

Glut of cars coming on to the second hand market = DEFLATION

No one will be making discretionary purchases - any helicopter money will be hoarded = DEFLATION

Banks and companies cancelling their dividends = DEFLATION

Where's the hyper-inflation coming from, in fact where will the inflation come from?

No one will be buying anything (forget the latest iphones)

Expect to see the adoption of a "make do & mend culture"; the end of globalisation, the end of cheap international travel, the end of immigration and the start of countries making their own products that are expensive, but built to last. And laws passed to ensure the UK can produce enough food and medical equipment for its own needs.

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23 minutes ago, jaseywasey said:

I agree, countless trillions destroyed on stock markets around the world. In the UK, the service economy cratered, possible record levels of unemployment, billions in property equity evaporated overnight, oil at multi-year lows, expected huge defaults on car leasing, zombie/vanity businesses bankrupted at a stroke, demand destruction everywhere.

AirBnBs being switched to long-term rentals at much lower pricing = DEFLATION

Glut of cars coming on to the second hand market = DEFLATION

No one will be making discretionary purchases - any helicopter money will be hoarded = DEFLATION

Banks and companies cancelling their dividends = DEFLATION

Where's the hyper-inflation coming from, in fact where will the inflation come from?

No one will be buying anything (forget the latest iphones)

Expect to see the adoption of a "make do & mend culture"; the end of globalisation, the end of cheap international travel, the end of immigration and the start of countries making their own products that are expensive, but built to last. And laws passed to ensure the UK can produce enough food and medical equipment for its own needs.

If you devalue money by printing enough of it without any asset backing, unless you believe in the MMT, inflation has to follow.

Lots of people will have plenty to spend, millions or even tens of millions are sitting at home on full salary with no travel or entertainment costs. Some people may even find they have a deposit on a house when they are finally let out and I can see the government expanding help to buy, 30-40%loan,  to make sure they use it. 

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9 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

If you devalue money by printing enough of it without any asset backing, unless you believe in the MMT, inflation has to follow.

Lots of people will have plenty to spend, millions or even tens of millions are sitting at home on full salary with no travel or entertainment costs. Some people may even find they have a deposit on a house when they are finally let out and I can see the government expanding help to buy, 30-40%loan,  to make sure they use it. 

I imagine if this goes on much longer, companies, will be seizing on this point in order to reduce salaries  ("just look at how much you are saving every month - if you want this business to stay afloat, you need to take a 30% pay-cut") - exactly what has been proposed to the premiership footballers.

I agree that QE/printing money is inflationary, but that has to weighed up against the trillions that have been lost elsewhere.

And of course, the deflationary death spiral is self-fulfilling - why buy a house now, when it will be x% cheaper next month/year?

However, I am sure we will see inflation in food-stuffs, which will also eat into any money being saved.

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2 hours ago, Dorkins said:

I like all these predictions of inflation. Is anybody here seeing a lot more money flooding into their bank account since this crisis started?

nope  

seems those advocating high inflation probably own a home and have money invested in stocks. ;) 

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3 hours ago, jiltedjen said:

there is. A lot of pent up demand at price levels of even two years ago. 

Can you point at a real world item which represents this pent up demand? e.g. savings?

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4 minutes ago, jaseywasey said:

I imagine if this goes on much longer, companies, will be seizing on this point in order to reduce salaries  ("just look at how much you are saving every month - if you want this business to stay afloat, you need to take a 30% pay-cut") - exactly what has been proposed to the premiership footballers.

I agree that QE/printing money is inflationary, but that has to weighed up against the trillions that have been lost elsewhere.

And of course, the deflationary death spiral is self-fulfilling - why buy a house now, when it will be x% cheaper next month/year?

However, I am sure we will see inflation in food-stuffs, which will also eat into any money being saved.

I think the government should be imposing an across the board haircut on salaries, maybe 25% and redistributing it via a flat rate payment to everyone with an NI number. 

At the moment like many others I am working from home on full pay doing probably 50% of normal and saving about £1,000 a month on travel, lunch, drink, restaurant and entertainment costs.  Seems too good to be true so probably is.

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1 hour ago, jaseywasey said:

I agree, countless trillions destroyed on stock markets around the world. In the UK, the service economy cratered, possible record levels of unemployment, billions in property equity evaporated overnight, oil at multi-year lows, expected huge defaults on car leasing, zombie/vanity businesses bankrupted at a stroke, demand destruction everywhere.

AirBnBs being switched to long-term rentals at much lower pricing = DEFLATION

Glut of cars coming on to the second hand market = DEFLATION

No one will be making discretionary purchases - any helicopter money will be hoarded = DEFLATION

Banks and companies cancelling their dividends = DEFLATION

Where's the hyper-inflation coming from, in fact where will the inflation come from?

No one will be buying anything (forget the latest iphones)

Expect to see the adoption of a "make do & mend culture"; the end of globalisation, the end of cheap international travel, the end of immigration and the start of countries making their own products that are expensive, but built to last. And laws passed to ensure the UK can produce enough food and medical equipment for its own needs.

What a nice world that would be to live in, if we could burn out EA`s letting agents and agency employment pimps in the process too the world would be so much better, burn up all the debt slaves too while were at it. 

make do and mend is my micro business gives me enough to survive and live without any hassle pays for a few beers a couple holidays a year run a car. what else do you need. 

hopefully my cash savings will buy somewhere outright soon now.  ?

 

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2 hours ago, Dorkins said:

I like all these predictions of inflation. Is anybody here seeing a lot more money flooding into their bank account since this crisis started?

Did goyish people have cash flood their bank accounts in Weimar Germany?

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7 minutes ago, longgone said:

nope  

seems those advocating high inflation probably own a home and have money invested in stocks. ;) 

I didn't have you down as a believer in the MMT? If we really can print £1tn without inflation then we can all be rich. 

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9 minutes ago, longgone said:

nope  

seems those advocating high inflation probably own a home and have money invested in stocks. ;) 

Deflation in things you want (car, owning your own house, xbox, iPhone), inflation in things you need (food, fuel, rent, communications)

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  • 417 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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