Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[GregBowman]

2 minutes ago, longgone said:

surely its safer to stay inside your car with recirculate mode mode all windows closed.  my mask is my pollen filter. 

Find it hard to get down the shop aisles in my car .....??

[longgone]

1 minute ago, GregBowman said:

Find it hard to get down the shop aisles in my car .....??

braver than me, had all the food delivered for over a month 

[Peter Hun]

16 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Linky?

( But I do think the British response has been woeful)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/

You may also like to read the WHO report, there are so many warnings I gave up reading them.

Quote

Estimates have varied widely. For instance, at a Feb. 24 news conference in Beijing, a top Chinese health official, Liang Wannian, said the fatality rate for COVID-19 was quite high.

"Between 3 to 4% of patients have died," said Liang.

https://www.wbur.org/npr/809904660/why-the-death-rate-from-coronavirus-is-plunging-in-china

https://globalnews.ca/news/6594612/who-coronavirus-mission-china/

[longgone]

5 minutes ago, winkie said:

Not what they think they are worth.....it is what others think they are worth rightly or wrongly.

someones value is determined by how you can convince others what you are worth rightly or wrongly whether based on fact or fiction.  

[anonguest]

17 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

New cases tested positive will be Hospital admissions, surely?

That is what I am largely assuming, yes.  Other than NHS workers for routine testing (still small numbers so I gather) those who are tested will be those clearly sick enough to warrant it.  Those testing postive, and sick, will mostly then be going straight to hospital.

[winkie]

14 minutes ago, Si1 said:

But then again another generation before that probably could (end of the 19th C saw cheap asset prices following the long depression)

Nobody wants a spare home/asset when very tangible, very low hanging fruit, open and easy to collect much needed taxes due...there was a time when property was much more of a liability than is today....no growth, little income and a tax liability why would anyone want to hold excess to what is actually needed, other than a place of shelter for them and their family?

Edited April 11, 2020 by winkie

[GregBowman]

Just now, longgone said:

braver than me, had all the food delivered for over a month 

Got to put mum to bed every other night so out and about anyway 

Only use small local shops - wear latex gloves ( you can wash and reuse  loads of times ) and buff or mask 

In shops everyone observing the rules - don’t think it changes the risk profile much but as I say out and about anyway 

[winkie]

2 minutes ago, longgone said:

someones value is determined by how you can convince others what you are worth rightly or wrongly whether based on fact or fiction.  

Facts please.

[Peter Hun]

Quote

3. It seems like there aren’t vast numbers of undetected cases

One of the big worries about this virus has been whether there are lots of asymptomatic, or “sub-clinical” cases — people with symptoms so mild they never see a doctor.

While this is good for these people, many experts worried that healthy-seeming people might unintentionally spread the disease.

Aylward said he didn’t see much evidence that this is happening.

https://globalnews.ca/news/6594612/who-coronavirus-mission-china/

[longgone]

Just now, winkie said:

Facts please.

ones mans facts is another mans fiction.  

[GregBowman]

3 minutes ago, longgone said:

someones value is determined by how you can convince others what you are worth rightly or wrongly whether based on fact or fiction.  

True 

11 minutes ago, winkie said:

Not what they think they are worth.....it is what others think they are worth rightly or wrongly.

which is basically based on your personal sales technique whether applying for a job or getting a daily rate 

[Si1]

4 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/

You may also like to read the WHO report, there are so many warnings I gave up reading them.

https://www.wbur.org/npr/809904660/why-the-death-rate-from-coronavirus-is-plunging-in-china

https://globalnews.ca/news/6594612/who-coronavirus-mission-china/

Ah I see.

Basically the criticism of China stems from them knowing in broad terms how bad it was in late December but not telling the WHO until mid January and not letting WHO observers come in at that point either.

By Feb they were on point. And indeed our govt was very complacent.

[winkie]

6 minutes ago, GregBowman said:

Got to put mum to bed every other night so out and about anyway 

Only use small local shops - wear latex gloves ( you can wash and reuse  loads of times ) and buff or mask 

In shops everyone observing the rules - don’t think it changes the risk profile much but as I say out and about anyway 

Same...wear gloves and mask, everyone I have met has been obeying the rules.....the way it comes over is we are totally irresponsible, do what we want, have little or no discipline.....maybe those spouting how awful we all are ought to look at themselves for a change. instead of projecting what is not working on to us?

[longgone]

11 minutes ago, GregBowman said:

Got to put mum to bed every other night so out and about anyway 

Only use small local shops - wear latex gloves ( you can wash and reuse  loads of times ) and buff or mask 

In shops everyone observing the rules - don’t think it changes the risk profile much but as I say out and about anyway 

Are they allowing care home visits now ? 

i`v been out once in 3 weeks to get mum`s drugs from the pharmacy and had to stop others coming in the shop only 2 at a time. 

[GregBowman]

12 minutes ago, longgone said:

Are they allowing care home visits now ? 

i`v been out once in 3 weeks to get mum`s drugs from the pharmacy and had to stop others coming in the shop only 2 at a time. 

It’s her own place in a sheltered block no different to a block of flats really - her own kitchen, sitting room bedroom etc 

[Peter Hun]

14 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Ah I see.

Basically the criticism of China stems from them knowing in broad terms how bad it was in late December but not telling the WHO until mid January and not letting WHO observers come in at that point either.

By Feb they were on point. And indeed our govt was very complacent.

 

China told the World on  31st Dec. Wuhan was locked down on 23rd January, 2020. That is the date when absolute seriousness of COVID was known and that is when western governments should has sprung into action. China was will to close an entire province and stop hundreds of billions of GDP to stop it, how more serious can you get?

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200121-sitrep-1-2019-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=20a99c10_4

Quote

Event highlights from 31 December 2019 to 20 January 2020: • On 31 December 2019, the WHO China Country Office was informed of cases of pneumonia unknown etiology (unknown cause) detected in Wuhan City, Hubei Province of China. From 31 December 2019 through 3 January 2020, a total of 44 case-patients with pneumonia of unknown etiology were reported to WHO by the national authorities in China. During this reported period, the causal agent was not identified. • On 11 and 12 January 2020, WHO received further detailed information from the National Health Commission China that the outbreak is associated with exposures in one seafood market in Wuhan City. • The Chinese authorities identified a new type of coronavirus, which was isolated on 7 January 2020. • On 12 January 2020, China shared the genetic sequence of the novel coronavirus for countries to use in developing specific diagnostic kits. • On 13 January 2020, the Ministry of Public Health, Thailand reported the first imported case of lab-confirmed novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) from Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. • On 15 January 2020, the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan (MHLW) reported an imported case of laboratory-confirmed 2019-novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) from Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. • On 20 January 2020, National IHR Focal Point (NFP) for Republic of Korea reported the first case of novel coronavirus in the Republic of Korea.

 

[longgone]

1 minute ago, GregBowman said:

It’s her own place in a sheltered block no different to a block of flats really - her own kitchen, sitting room bedroom etc 

Ahh got ya warden assisted 

[Si1]

4 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

 

China told the World on  31st Dec. Wuhan was locked down on 23rd January, 2020. That is the date when absolute seriousness of COVID was known and that is when western governments should has sprung into action. China was will to close an entire province and stop hundreds of billions of GDP to stop it, how more serious can you get?

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200121-sitrep-1-2019-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=20a99c10_4

 

Selective stats there dude:

 

(From my initial link)

"John MacKenzie, the WHO’s emergency committee adviser, told me that the organisation was “a little misled” about the Wuhan outbreak. He says that by the time the government alerted the WHO on 31 December, scientists in China had already determined via genome sequencing that the outbreak was caused by coronavirus. Yet the government didn’t confirm that until 7 January and the full genome sequence was not officially shared until 12 January. “That’s very slow,” MacKenzie told me. “For at least two weeks, we could have been making far more kits and so on for testing.” MacKenzie added that the number of cases officially declared by the Chinese in the first week – 59 in the week ending 5 January – was “nowhere near as many cases as you’d expect”. (The statistics released by the Chinese government continue to be questioned, with some reports suggesting they may have seriously understated the number of coronavirus deaths.)

Despite mounting frustrations – in mid-January, China also refused the WHO’s request to send a team of scientific observers to Hubei province, the centre of the outbreak – Tedros has never come close to doing what Brundtland did and calling China out. Instead, on 28 January, he had a closed-door meeting with Xi Jinping in Beijing, and two days later, he praised Chinese efforts to contain the disease, declaring that China is “setting a new standard for outbreak control”. That same day, 30 January, the WHO declared a Pheic, and began issuing prescriptions to countries around the world. On 8 February, China finally allowed WHO observers into the country. "

[GregBowman]

13 minutes ago, longgone said:

Ahh got ya warden assisted 

Yep ? to be fair lovely little development two storey 10 mins walk to high st and only about 30 flats and  their own common room etc, guest rooms built in the 90’s when they weren’t cramming them in and good quality build 

mum was in hospital nothing major we pay for all the care ourself ( don’t get me going ) but have had a result because of the current situation they have given her a care package including an overnight carer foc for six weeks ( all sorts of special budgets ) To be reviewed 

my brother go in every other night to see her and put her to bed - makes it easier for the girls overnight 

 

Edited April 11, 2020 by GregBowman

[Peter Hun]

5 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Selective stats there dude:

 

(From my initial link)

"John MacKenzie, the WHO’s emergency committee adviser, told me that the organisation was “a little misled” about the Wuhan outbreak. He says that by the time the government alerted the WHO on 31 December, scientists in China had already determined via genome sequencing that the outbreak was caused by coronavirus. Yet the government didn’t confirm that until 7 January and the full genome sequence was not officially shared until 12 January. “That’s very slow,” MacKenzie told me. “For at least two weeks, we could have been making far more kits and so on for testing.” MacKenzie added that the number of cases officially declared by the Chinese in the first week – 59 in the week ending 5 January – was “nowhere near as many cases as you’d expect”. (The statistics released by the Chinese government continue to be questioned, with some reports suggesting they may have seriously understated the number of coronavirus deaths.)

Despite mounting frustrations – in mid-January, China also refused the WHO’s request to send a team of scientific observers to Hubei province, the centre of the outbreak – Tedros has never come close to doing what Brundtland did and calling China out. Instead, on 28 January, he had a closed-door meeting with Xi Jinping in Beijing, and two days later, he praised Chinese efforts to contain the disease, declaring that China is “setting a new standard for outbreak control”. That same day, 30 January, the WHO declared a Pheic, and began issuing prescriptions to countries around the world. On 8 February, China finally allowed WHO observers into the country. "

They stated that that 3-4% of patients died. If this is a understatement, why did the UK decide that it was 1 % and ignore all the effort required to keep it so low? One thing the Uk did was invent the the idea that patients were infected but not tested. WHO explicitly warned that was not happening.

The UK decided that China was OVER stating the death rates and it ignored the warning about ventilation of hospitalization..

[Confusion of VIs]

1 hour ago, longgone said:

LOL 

i have yet to see any genuine skills in your posts either just self righteous rubbish and delusions of grandeur based on BS. 

"i was approached to be CIO of brighthouse" 

HAHA 

Gave up seeking grandeur deluded or not many years ago. Now happy to be working doing something I actually enjoy, at a level where CIO of Brighthouse was a whatever offer, even before I found out just how sh!tty a firm it was. 

[Si1]

11 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

They stated that that 3-4% of patients died. If this is a understatement, why did the UK decide that it was 1 % and ignore all the effort required to keep it so low? One thing the Uk did was invent the the idea that patients were infected but not tested. WHO explicitly warned that was not happening.

The UK decided that China was OVER stating the death rates and it ignored the warning about ventilation of hospitalization..

I think I agree. That's a separate point to the one that China withheld important information in the early days.

I'm not blaming the Chinese govt fior Britain's mess. But on a global scale they were irresponsible.

[Confusion of VIs]

1 hour ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

I do think our politicians have a lot to answer for. I personally believe a lot of the delay in the UK was down to them still being distracted by the stupidity that is Brexit. The UK was actually luckier than Italy, who got a much more virilant strain of COVID earlier than the UK. 

Somehow the UK politicians allowed this to turn into the current mess. If it weren't for all this bending over for China nonsense as demonstrated by Huawei, then we might have been able to close the airlinks to China much quicker. 

Brexit and the accommodation of China that goes with it has a lot to answer for. 

I doubt Brexit was a direct factor, the early dreams of creating a partnership with China had evaporated long before the virus started spreading. You could make an indirect association in that it led to our current incompetent government.  

The Huawei issue is more about the US's reacting to US firms losing their technical edge to a strong foreign competitor than it is about security.  All of the 5G vendors raise similar security issues and the truth is if China/Huawei had the ability to hide back doors in the network software that GCHQ cannot find, they certainly have the ability to insert it into 5G Networks from any other competitor.   

 

[Dorkins]

1 hour ago, GregBowman said:

The golden days from 45 to the 80’s will be looked back on as a bit of a ‘blip’ for all sorts of reasons a unique time including low crime 

Lots of people say my dad a postie could get a 3 bed semi etc and they could - the thing is their grandparents couldn’t 

1945 to the 80s wasnt a blip, it was the continuation of a long established trend. Homeownership rose fairly steadily from the start of the 20th century to its peak in 2001.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

3 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

I doubt Brexit was a direct factor, the early dreams of creating a partnership with China had evaporated long before the virus started spreading. You could make an indirect association in that it led to our current incompetent government.  

The Huawei issue is more about the US's reacting to US firms losing their technical edge to a strong foreign competitor than it is about security.  All of the 5G vendors raise similar security issues and the truth is if China/Huawei had the ability to hide back doors in the network software that GCHQ cannot find, they certainly have the ability to insert it into 5G Networks from any other competitor.   

 

Absolutely get the US Geopolitics on 5G, but as I am sure you recall out leaders in the UK wanted to go against the grain of opinion from our security advisers and the US - just for some cheap deal with China. 

Brexit is now rendered useless and obsolete. The best deal we can get with Japan is the same as the one they have with Europe and the best we can have with Europe is what we had before. 

Frankly the only other chip on the table is the chlorinated chicken one.