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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?


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HOLA441
4 minutes ago, The Spaniard said:

Thank you for your detailed reply.

Very refreshing to read a cogently argued explanation instead of a kneejerk refusal to look.

That's because 14stFlyer is able to answer as a scientist.

I explained earlier why it is not worth my time looking. It is not a kneejerk refusal to look, it is that I am not a scientist and I am aware of how scientific information can be dressed up to mislead the ignorant (I still smart from the fact that I fell for the Channel 4 global warming video about ten years ago which misrepresented a lot of scientists to make inaccurate claims). I leave the expert stuff to the experts and accept that I cannot become an expert from watching a few videos in Bitchute and will just as likely come away worse informed or more inclined to Dunning-Kruger-esque opinions.

 

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1
HOLA442
6 minutes ago, Megadebt said:

 No, totally wrong.  Average stay is 2 years in residential care, I in 3 end up in care now in uk.

 This was never like that for the previous generation, parents dying in their 70's kids often inheriting property in their 30's.  

 Previous generations didn't need to sell their homes to pay for their care fees either, and normally parents actually still had mental capacity to know who their kids were at the end of their lives.  sad but true.

 

And my parents were still taking international holidays in their 70s and 80s, rather than croaking in their 70s. They did not become geriatrics young. Yes, more people end up in care now more often than before, but these also spend a longer period of their lives active.

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HOLA443

Here is the BMJ take on PCR testing.

My science is limited to GCSE, but it looks like they are saying here, the testing results are limited due to how it is being classified from a single gene?

Regarding 14stFlyer's post, could this article be an example of a test not being done in the right way for the right question?

https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n208/rr-3

Quote

Positive results from UK single gene PCR testing for SARS-COV-2 may be inconclusive, negative or detecting past infections........

Professor Alan McNally, Director of the University of Birmingham Turnkey laboratory, who helped set up the Milton Keynes lighthouse laboratory, contradicted what was stated in the ONS report in a Guardian newspaper article about the new variant. He reported that all lighthouse laboratories operated a policy that adhered to the manufacturer instructions for use: requiring two-or-more genes for positive detection [6] (this policy is also documented in [16], which defines the standard operating procedure reported in [7]).

In correspondence with Mr Nicholas Lewis about single gene testing, in February 2021, the ONS confirmed that they do indeed call single gene targets as positives in their Covid-19 Infection Survey and also confirmed that the samples are processed by UK lighthouse laboratories [8], [9].......

Section 10 of this ONS Covid-19 Infection Survey report [11] on 8 January 2021 confirms that one gene is sufficient for a positive result.

Obviously, there is a higher risk of encountering false positives when testing for single genes alone, because of the possibility of cross-reactivity with other human coronaviruses (HCOVs) as well as prevalent bacteria or reagent contamination....

...Without diagnostic validation it is not clear what can be concluded from a positive PCR test resulting from a single target gene call, especially if there was no confirmatory testing. Many of the reported positive results may be inconclusive, negative or from people who suffered past infection for SARS-COV-2. Even with diagnostic validation of the single target gene call, the UK lighthouse laboratories appear not to be in strict conformance with the WHO emergency use assessment and the manufacturer instructions for use. Given this it is clear the ONS and the UK lighthouse laboratories needs to publicly clarify their use of, and justify the reasons for, deviating from these standards.

 

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HOLA444
7 hours ago, Ah-so said:

Here's good article which shows where off-Guardian's heart is:

https://off-guardian.org/2021/01/07/the-storming-of-the-capitol-americas-reichstag-fire/

In the title, I refer to this as America’s Reichstag fire, and that’s not just emotive language, the parallels are pretty clear: A staged attack on a political building, deliberately misattributed to political enemies and used to consolidate the power of a freshly installed leader.

Not one single part of this story is true:

  • There was no “storming”
  • There was no “incitement”
  • There was no “violence”
  • And the riot effectively ended Trump’s presidency.

There was no violence. Indeed whether or not Trump “incited” anything is moot, because there was no violence. Disregard the reports of chemical weapons, pipe bombs or IEDs – none of which ever appeared. None of the “rioters” are as yet shown to have hurt anyone.

The only person reportedly killed or injured was a protester allegedly shot by the police. Compare and contrast the attitude of the media to this “violence”, vs the “fiery but mostly peaceful” protests all last summer.

Oh dear. 

Russian Trolls p1ssed off for being booted off the Guardian ? Common or garden reactionary nut jobs ? Is there any difference ?

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HOLA445
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HOLA446
23 minutes ago, ticket2ride said:

I know it's wrong to have these thoughts, but there's a 1 in 2 million chance that our Prime Minister could have an adverse to the Oxford vaccine.

According to VAERS it's more like 22.7 / million. Deaths that is. 

Would be interested to know where you got the 1 in 2 million stat from, assuming it's not just made up. 

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HOLA447
5 hours ago, scottbeard said:

People dying of old age isn't a failure - it's a success!

We want people to die aged 88 of old age, not aged 60/70/80 of COVID.

The average age of COVID death throughout 2020 was 82.4, which is slightly above average life expectancy.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/average-age-of-coronavirus-fatalities-is-82-pcwqrzdzz

88 life expectancy will never happen in the UK. For example, dementia was increasing among people in their 40s well before 2020.

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HOLA448
29 minutes ago, Dr Doom said:

According to VAERS it's more like 22.7 / million. Deaths that is. 

Would be interested to know where you got the 1 in 2 million stat from, assuming it's not just made up. 

Evdience to the 22.7 deaths per million... Are you multiplying by 100 again? 

Also have caused by rather than a yellow card repot of someone 88 with dementia who sadly passed within a week of a vaccine with no known link. Although we've had that discussion 876 times. 

Edited by captainb
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HOLA449
3 hours ago, Ah-so said:

Channel 4 global warming video about ten years ago which misrepresented a lot of scientists to make inaccurate claims

Wow, I vaguely remember that too, or more so the complaints afterwards. I think Ofcom upheld complaint about someone who didnt want to be in the documentry or something, but couldn't uphold anything for the science side of it. Cant imagine a woke Ch4 daring to do such a documentry again anytime soon.

Leave stuff to the experts maybe, but dont be afraid to question them though.

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HOLA4410
2 minutes ago, captainb said:

Evdience to the 22.7 deaths per million... Are you multiplying by 100 again? 

For the US VAERS has ~1,609 deaths, which would mean out of 70.8 million jabbed people if at 22.7 deaths per million.

If you multiplied by 100 due to fewer than 1% of adverse vaccine events being reported that might be 160,900 deaths in the US, 2270 per million, since Dec 2020.

WHO's Vigiaccess for "Covid-19 Vaccine" is currently at 276,272 adverse reactions, 83% (228,968) of which are in the Europe region. Most of the jabs in Europe are the UK.

The UK MHRA yellow card system was at 508 deaths the last time I looked. 297,274 adverse reactions altogether. A few are below. Some things like "Blindness" don't show but would be under "Eye disorders".

The reactions that don't kill, may contribute to long term ill health, disability or death sometime in the future.

Pfizer:

  • 2294 Blood disorders including 1 death
  • 1153 Cardiac disorders including 26 deaths
  • 5 Congenital disorder
  • 819 Ear disorders
  • 12 Endocrine disorders
  • 1398 Eye disorders
  • 10,534 Gastrointestinal disorders including 12 deaths
  • 28,915 General disorders including 114 deaths
  • 18 Hepatic disorders
  • 528 Immune system disorders
  • 2059 Infections including 38 deaths
  • 458 Injuries including 1 death
  • 1073 Investigations
  • 587 Metabolic disorders including 1 death
  • 12,823 Muscle & tissue disorders
  • 24 Neoplasms
  • 18.059 Nervous system disorders including 17 deaths
  • 34 Pregnancy conditions including 1 death
  • 1409 Psychiatric disorders
  • 212 Renal & urinary disorders
  • 389 Reproductive & breast disorders
  • 3986 Respiratory disorders including 14 deaths
  • 6809 Skin disorders including 1 death
  • 20 Social circumstances
  • 58 Surgical & medical procedures
  • 1119 Vascular disorders including 1 death

 

AZ

  • 1098 Blood disorders including 1 death
  • 1922 Cardiac disorders including 39 deaths
  • 16 Congenital disorders
  • 1217 Ear disorders
  • 36 Endocrine disorders
  • 2150 Eye disorders
  • 22,336 Gastrointestinal disorders including 5 deaths
  • 71,732 General disorders including 153 deaths
  • 29 Hepatic disorders
  • 542 Immune system disorders
  • 3839 Infections including 38 deaths
  • 916 Injuries including 1 death
  • 2436 Investigations
  • 2644 Metabolic disorders including 2 deaths
  • 24,631 Muscle & tissue disorders
  • 18 Neoplasms including 1 death
  • 43,951 Nervous system disorders including 19 deaths
  • 20 Pregnancy conditions
  • 3554 Psychiatric disorders
  • 563 Renal & urinary disorders including 1 death
  • 297 Reproductive & breast disorders
  • 5323 Respiratory disorders including 11 deaths
  • 10,507 Skin disorders including 1 death
  • 48 Social circumstances
  • 151 Surgical & medical procedures including 1 death
  • 1635 Vascular disorders including 3 deaths
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HOLA4411
6 minutes ago, Arpeggio said:

For the US VAERS has ~1,609 deaths, which would mean out of 70.8 million jabbed people if at 22.7 deaths per million.

If you multiplied by 100 due to fewer than 1% of adverse vaccine events being reported that might be 160,900 deaths in the US, 2270 per million, since Dec 2020.

WHO's Vigiaccess for "Covid-19 Vaccine" is currently at 276,272 adverse reactions, 83% (228,968) of which are in the Europe region. Most of the jabs in Europe are the UK.

The UK MHRA yellow card system was at 508 deaths the last time I looked. 297,274 adverse reactions altogether. A few are below. Some things like "Blindness" don't show but would be under "Eye disorders".

The reactions that don't kill, may contribute to long term ill health, disability or death sometime in the future.

Pfizer:

  • 2294 Blood disorders including 1 death
  • 1153 Cardiac disorders including 26 deaths
  • 5 Congenital disorder
  • 819 Ear disorders
  • 12 Endocrine disorders
  • 1398 Eye disorders
  • 10,534 Gastrointestinal disorders including 12 deaths
  • 28,915 General disorders including 114 deaths
  • 18 Hepatic disorders
  • 528 Immune system disorders
  • 2059 Infections including 38 deaths
  • 458 Injuries including 1 death
  • 1073 Investigations
  • 587 Metabolic disorders including 1 death
  • 12,823 Muscle & tissue disorders
  • 24 Neoplasms
  • 18.059 Nervous system disorders including 17 deaths
  • 34 Pregnancy conditions including 1 death
  • 1409 Psychiatric disorders
  • 212 Renal & urinary disorders
  • 389 Reproductive & breast disorders
  • 3986 Respiratory disorders including 14 deaths
  • 6809 Skin disorders including 1 death
  • 20 Social circumstances
  • 58 Surgical & medical procedures
  • 1119 Vascular disorders including 1 death

 

AZ

  • 1098 Blood disorders including 1 death
  • 1922 Cardiac disorders including 39 deaths
  • 16 Congenital disorders
  • 1217 Ear disorders
  • 36 Endocrine disorders
  • 2150 Eye disorders
  • 22,336 Gastrointestinal disorders including 5 deaths
  • 71,732 General disorders including 153 deaths
  • 29 Hepatic disorders
  • 542 Immune system disorders
  • 3839 Infections including 38 deaths
  • 916 Injuries including 1 death
  • 2436 Investigations
  • 2644 Metabolic disorders including 2 deaths
  • 24,631 Muscle & tissue disorders
  • 18 Neoplasms including 1 death
  • 43,951 Nervous system disorders including 19 deaths
  • 20 Pregnancy conditions
  • 3554 Psychiatric disorders
  • 563 Renal & urinary disorders including 1 death
  • 297 Reproductive & breast disorders
  • 5323 Respiratory disorders including 11 deaths
  • 10,507 Skin disorders including 1 death
  • 48 Social circumstances
  • 151 Surgical & medical procedures including 1 death
  • 1635 Vascular disorders including 3 deaths

You don't times by 100 as its a Wednesday or because in other common treatments reactions are underreported.. Yes not everyone reports swelling after taking aspirin as its so common but everyone is looking out for adverse reactions to these new vaccines. 

You also know full well the yellow card reports do not show death by vaccine or caused by vaccine but merely a death after a vaccine which given the number of 80+ year old having taken it are remarkably low as a figure 

Edited by captainb
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HOLA4412
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HOLA4413
20 minutes ago, captainb said:

You don't times by 100 as its a Wednesday or because in other common treatments reactions are underreported.

 

I don't think anyone was suggesting that you multiply by 100 because it's Wednesday. Anyone who read my post would see that I multiplied by 100 based on an investigation submitted to the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality.

20 minutes ago, captainb said:

You also no full well the yellow card reports do not show death by vaccine or caused by vaccine but merely a death after a vaccine.

It looks as though you are arguing that the deaths would have happened anyway. Now, why not give your view on the 62,010 Nervous system disorders.

20 minutes ago, captainb said:

which given the number of 80+ year old having taken it are remarkably low as a figure 

Many of those died of COVID 19 shortly after receiving the vaccine, such as this example:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/covid-19-nine-die-in-trim-nursing-home-despite-having-had-first-vaccination-1.4508545

Many care homes have outbreaks of COVID19 shortly after vaccination.

I also mentioned how Vigiaccess database for "Covid-19 Vaccine" has a disproportionately low amount of adverse reactions for the older age group (currently 19% for 65 and above) compared to the drug company's own trials.

http://vigiaccess.org/

Edited by Arpeggio
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HOLA4414
5 minutes ago, Arpeggio said:

I don't think anyone was suggesting that you multiply by 100 because it's Wednesday. Anyone who read my post would see that I multiplied by 100 based on an investigation submitted to the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality.

It looks as though you are arguing that the deaths would have happened anyway. Now, why not give your view on the 62,010 Nervous system disorders.

Many of those died of COVID 19 shortly after receiving the vaccine, such as this example:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/covid-19-nine-die-in-trim-nursing-home-despite-having-had-first-vaccination-1.4508545

Many care homes have outbreaks of COVID19 shortly after vaccination.

Your report was on two different things. 

Given 30% of the population has now received a vaccine with distribution heavily weighted towards those over 70,and over 90% of over 80 year old, yes,a lot of those people would have died anyway. 508 is remarkably small. 

 

Edited by captainb
Actual figure
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HOLA4415
7 minutes ago, captainb said:

Your report was on two different things.

What are you talking about? The report says "fewer than 1% of vaccine adverse events are reported"

7 minutes ago, captainb said:

Given 30% of the population has now received a vaccine with distribution heavily weighted towards those over 70,and over 90% of over 80 year old, yes,a lot of those people would have died anyway. 508 is remarkably small.

As I already said, many of those died of COVID 19 shortly after receiving the vaccine. Many care homes have outbreaks of COVID19 shortly after vaccination. Vigiaccess database for "Covid-19 Vaccine" has a disproportionately low amount of adverse reactions for the older age group compared to drug trials.

However, I will repeat:

It looks as though you are arguing that the deaths would have happened anyway. Now, why not give your view on the 62,010 Nervous system disorders.

You really should give your view on this knowing that "death" is not the only adverse reaction listed by a long shot.

Edited by Arpeggio
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HOLA4416
4 hours ago, Ah-so said:

And my parents were still taking international holidays in their 70s and 80s, rather than croaking in their 70s. They did not become geriatrics young. Yes, more people end up in care now more often than before, but these also spend a longer period of their lives active.

I think people were slimmer which helped in a range of ways. Those that dropped dead usually had heart attacks (smoking), those that were older stayed mobile and active.

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HOLA4417
10 minutes ago, Arpeggio said:

What are you talking about? The report says "fewer than 1% of vaccine adverse events are reported"

I will repeat:

It looks as though you are arguing that the deaths would have happened anyway. Now, why not give your view on the 62,010 Nervous system disorders.

You mean headaches. Brilliant. A known and common side effect. 

Just classified as "nervous system disorders" funny you didn't define that

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HOLA4418
2 hours ago, ticket2ride said:

I know it's wrong to have these thoughts, but there's a 1 in 2 million chance that our Prime Minister could have an adverse to the Oxford vaccine.

3500.jpg?width=700&quality=45&auto=forma

Not the first report of a pr1ck from Oxford University being inserted in a pig!

I will point out the the story about our former prime minister is not actually true: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-cameron-pig-*****-dead-mouth-oxford-initiation-ceremony-bullingdon-club-a9111246.html

Edited by Mikhail Liebenstein
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HOLA4419
1 hour ago, captainb said:

Evdience to the 22.7 deaths per million... Are you multiplying by 100 again? 

Also have caused by rather than a yellow card repot of someone 88 with dementia who sadly passed within a week of a vaccine with no known link. Although we've had that discussion 876 times. 

If the yellowcard / VAERS reporting systems aren't up to scratch why do we bother even having them at all ?

Sure you can point at the data there and say it's unreliable, but then you can't really make a claim that you know the risk profile of vaccines if you don't have reliable data. 

I can't be the only one who sees this situation has wholly unsatisfactory. 

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HOLA4420
2 hours ago, Arpeggio said:

The average age of COVID death throughout 2020 was 82.4, which is slightly above average life expectancy.

 

Average age excludes those who die young. 

As we know, COVID-19 is a disease that mainly attacks the elderly. 

Those who reach 65 have an average age of 86 (women) and 84 (men). Actually, those were the figures ten years ago, so may be higher now. 

Glad to be of help

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HOLA4421
1 hour ago, captainb said:

You mean headaches. Brilliant. A known and common side effect. 

Just classified as "nervous system disorders" funny you didn't define that

No, nervous system disorders. A disorder of the nervous system, which entails many things, as well as various types of headache from the "Suicide cluster headache" and migraines to something else still severe enough that someone reported it.

So going by your logic, if headaches appear on the database, this is definitely because the vaccine causes headaches, but if death is on there it was merely a death after the vaccine that would have happened anyway, as you say below...

2 hours ago, captainb said:

the yellow card reports do not show death by vaccine or caused by vaccine but merely a death after a vaccine.

Breakdown below of nervous system disorders for AZ vaccine alone, with 16 types of headache and 8 types of migraine marked out for you. The database does not account for whether or not all of these nervous system disorders have stopped or if will last throughout someone's life (e.g. chronic migraines). Likewise for Blood, Cardiac or Congenital, which are not included here.

P1.thumb.jpg.de394e74a12e630761d1f4457d0f86bb.jpgP2.thumb.jpg.56c01ff5f13b2cb6bd102900b1a205af.jpgP3.thumb.jpg.d9e0100ad0aa394a4ec872b5b764973f.jpgP4.thumb.jpg.cbcc835be01b6f2fc90f4476be100391.jpgP5.thumb.jpg.50e68e1de3067d25bc962ebcfe321349.jpgP6.thumb.jpg.3c69e29f73f72da9d23d18171f2c5836.jpg

 

Edited by Arpeggio
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HOLA4422
13 minutes ago, Ah-so said:

Average age excludes those who die young.

Are you saying they excluded the deaths among those who are younger when working out the average?

13 minutes ago, Ah-so said:

As we know, COVID-19 is a disease that mainly attacks the elderly.

As most diseases do.

13 minutes ago, Ah-so said:

Those who reach 65 have an average age of 86 (women) and 84 (men). Actually, those were the figures ten years ago, so may be higher now.

What is your point? how is it relevant to COVID19? are the causes of death for people dying under 65 relevant to COVID19? If someone has an unhealthy lifestyle survives up to the age of 65 and continues like that, they will be less likely to live to 86 / 84.

Edited by Arpeggio
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HOLA4423
23
HOLA4424
26 minutes ago, Arpeggio said:

No, nervous system disorders. A disorder of the nervous system, which entails many things, as well as various types of headache from the "Suicide cluster headache" and migraines to something else still severe enough that someone reported it.

So going by your logic, if headaches appear on the database, this is definitely because the vaccine causes headaches, but if death is on there it was merely a death after the vaccine that would have happened anyway, as you say below...

Breakdown below of nervous system disorders for AZ vaccine alone, with 16 types of headache and 8 types of migraine marked out for you. The database does not account for whether or not all of these nervous system disorders have stopped or if will last throughout someone's life (e.g. chronic migraines). Likewise for Blood, Cardiac or Congenital, which are not included here.

P1.thumb.jpg.de394e74a12e630761d1f4457d0f86bb.jpgP2.thumb.jpg.56c01ff5f13b2cb6bd102900b1a205af.jpgP3.thumb.jpg.d9e0100ad0aa394a4ec872b5b764973f.jpgP4.thumb.jpg.cbcc835be01b6f2fc90f4476be100391.jpgP5.thumb.jpg.50e68e1de3067d25bc962ebcfe321349.jpgP6.thumb.jpg.3c69e29f73f72da9d23d18171f2c5836.jpg

 

Nope as you know you can get a headache for reasons other than a vaccine as well. 

I often have one on a Sunday morning. 

Would expect some headaches from vaccine though as well as general noise, given its a listed and reported side effect of any immune response. 

Depsite your chat of 49k neurological disorders amoungst the 20 odd million who have had the jab, the reality is 26k are "headaches", 6k feeling dizzy, 1800 migraine and 1600 feeling tired. 

A little bit different than implied. 

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HOLA4425
4 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

Tory drone on vaccination, Sky News just now...

"The people in Europe must be holding their head in their hands and wishing they had a program like ours at the moment".

According to this France and all other countries seasonal winter death spikes are on their way down regardless.

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

 

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