Mikhail Liebenstein Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, anonguest said: THIS is yet another one of those seemingly 'small' overlooked sacrifices being made, in the name of keeping alive people already often well past their expected average life expectancy and oftern in poor health, but which the long term effects could potentially be profound IF these sorts of social restrictions become normalised and/or continue for any meaningful length of time. Well done to the BBC for at least reporting these various issues and making people aware that there will be a price paid to stop covid that most haven't even thought about. I would not be at all surprised to see in years ahead this come back to bite us collectively. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-55563579 "....classes and meet-ups are vital to a baby's development and Covid was having a "massive impact". "We are social creatures, social beings - it is pre-programmed in our brains," he says. "When children's brains are stimulated, they grow." AND, I would add for those unable to conenct dots, when they are not stimulated they do not grow to be 'normal' (lower intelligence, dysfunctional behaviour, etc). Are we going to prepare for a possible epidemic of 'problem' children? This has been my biggest concern about the whole lockdown. My kids are older, 8+, but it is not so long ago they did these sorts of activities. We have had other kids round to play at certain times and there has been a noticeable increase in feral behaviour from some of their friends. Typically seems to be either the ones more cooped up in smaller houses or the ones with very rich parents who have full time staff to manage the kids. Anyway, mine manage well with the technology, but this won't work for toddlers and I suspect we will produce s generation of socially damaged kids. Expect a teenager with a knife round your house circa 2034. Edited January 9, 2021 by Mikhail Liebenstein Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikhail Liebenstein Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said: You talk like this is already over. Well you and all your other covidiot deniers have since last summer and this tally of death is on you. But how convenient that you ignore the fact that the figure above doesn't include excess deaths, indirect deaths, or the hundered thousands suffering long-covid - of which no one knows the long-term prognosis. Still not wearing your mask? As I posted a few days back, the excess death tally is pretty low. Not saying there aren't any excess deaths, but 2020 only matched the 2019 figure in mid November. So perhaps 6 weeks more deaths, and actually the December numbers between the 2 years were reasonably similar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NobodyInParticular Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 51 minutes ago, anonguest said: You can read English BUT not understand it, so it seems. That is NOT what I said. I said I stopped listening to whatever Ferguson's thoughts/opinions are the day he stopped following his own advice. Integrity is good, but the research and modelling needs to be judged on its own merits as Fergusson is leading a research group, with interactions with others, not doing it all himself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NobodyInParticular Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said: As I posted a few days back, the excess death tally is pretty low. It's really not. 5 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said: Not saying there aren't any excess deaths, but 2020 only matched the 2019 figure in mid November. Citation? I've been following this from March, and that's news to me. Generally the figures, from ONS, have exceeded COVID death figures. 5 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob8 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 18 hours ago, Dr Doom said: More lockdown = more excess deaths. There's a pretty clear correlation, perhaps a slight lag. We had early and strict lockdown in Norway and Denmark. We have no excess deaths for 2020. They had a light lockdown in Sweden and lots of excess deaths. Thickie. https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938 I know it is annoying. We would all like to stay up late, eat lots of sweeties and not brush our teeth. And we all wish Covid-19 was not around. But we have to be big boys and girls rather than twats. Like you are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will! Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 24 minutes ago, anonguest said: Perhaps more a bit of British 'Stiff Upper Lip', rather than cold and clinical But that's probably a very un-PC phrase to use these days I assume? In medicine there’s a sort-of joke about “the mask of relaxed brilliance”, the ability to compose oneself when exhausted, stressed etc in order to earn patient’s trust and get the best from colleagues who may be also tired, stressed etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob8 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, NobodyInParticular said: It's really not. Citation? I've been following this from March, and that's news to me. Generally the figures, from ONS, have exceeded COVID death figures. If there is a debate and one side is citing reality and the other side are relying on making stuff up, it is clear the covid-deniers are not only deep down not believing their own arguments, the also that they are irredemible twats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikhail Liebenstein Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 (edited) 9 minutes ago, NobodyInParticular said: It's really not. Citation? I've been following this from March, and that's news to me. Generally the figures, from ONS, have exceeded COVID death figures. https://fingertips.phe.org.uk/static-reports/mortality-surveillance/excess-mortality-in-england-latest.html About 19% above typical expectation, it is not that much. This will reduce the figure in subsequent years too. Edited January 9, 2021 by Mikhail Liebenstein Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob8 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said: https://fingertips.phe.org.uk/static-reports/mortality-surveillance/excess-mortality-in-england-latest.html About 19% above typical expectation, it is not that much. This will reduce the figure in subsequent years too. Denmark and Norway had early lockdowns and clear Government meaages. It went far better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will! Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 21 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said: As I posted a few days back, the excess death tally is pretty low. Not saying there aren't any excess deaths, but 2020 only matched the 2019 figure in mid November. So perhaps 6 weeks more deaths, and actually the December numbers between the 2 years were reasonably similar. If I’m reading your link correctly on my phone then it says 69,925 excess deaths in England in 2020. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anonguest Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 (edited) Just now, NobodyInParticular said: Integrity is good, but the research and modelling needs to be judged on its own merits as Fergusson is leading a research group, with interactions with others, not doing it all himself. No. It's not just good - it's important! It is just a part of the equation BUT it is important. The same data can be presented in diifferent ways by different people (emphasis here and not there, little nuances in suggestion of priorities, etc). I will bet you all the money in my pocket against all the money in your pocket that all the people in Fergusons reserach group do not think or feel identically to Fergsuon on evrry single thing. Edited January 9, 2021 by anonguest Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikhail Liebenstein Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 (edited) The best thing people can do is get fit. But there are too many are lard buckets in this country doing no exercise and eating junk food; that is the real issue. I'm 47 now and have just done another approximate VO2Max test, and this time scored over 50, that rates as superior for my age group, and would be condidered excellent for a 19 year old. I've pretty much done this with no more that 20-40m a day typically 5-10k on an erg. Edited January 9, 2021 by Mikhail Liebenstein Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anonguest Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Just now, Mikhail Liebenstein said: This has been my biggest concern about the whole lockdown. My kids are older, 8+, but it is not so long ago they did these sorts of activities. We have had other kids round to play at certain times and there has been a noticeable increase in feral behaviour from some of their friends. Typically seems to be either the ones more cooped up in smaller houses or the ones with very rich parents who have full time staff to manage the kids. Anyway, mine manage well with the technology, but this won't work for toddlers and I suspect we will produce s generation of socially damaged kids. Expect a teenager with a knife round your house circa 2034. And of course Grandma and Grandpa likely won't be affected by such outcomes by then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob8 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said: The best thing people can do is get fit. But there are too many are lard buckets in this country doing no exercise and eating junk food; that is the real issue. I'm 47 now and have just done another approximate VO2Max test, and this time scored over 50, that rates as superior for my age group, and would be condidered excellent for a 19 year old. I've pretty much done this with no more that 20-40m a day typically 5-10k on and erg. Yes. But, that is not going to happen. We have to accept the population we have rather than be sulky. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will! Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Police arrest 12 at Clapham Common anti-lockdown protest “One anti-lockdown protestor, who was detained at Clapham Common park, said "I stand under common law, not maritime law and this is assault" as he was put into handcuffs by police officers.” I’m not legally qualified, but there’s no cure for stupid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will! Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, anonguest said: Out of interest....how well is that being handled at present, overall? Compared with pre-pandemic? NHS England Statistics Cancelled Elective Operations Data collection has been cancelled because of Covid (perhaps a subject for the YouTube conspiracists), but anecdotally a significant amount of urgent elective surgery requiring post-op critical care is being postponed. Edited January 9, 2021 by Will! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 1 hour ago, anonguest said: So, in effect......they are claiming the intrinsic mortality rate of covid is actually about 2.5% ??? And NOT 0.25(ish)%, that many others seem to claim. (80K deaths/3 million cases = 2.66%) Well that's what they released. The CFR figures will be biased upwards by the infection getting into care homes, one reported losing half their residents to Covid over the Christmas period but still hard to believe that the overall rate will be anything like the 0.25% some people still claim. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nightowl Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said: As I posted a few days back, the excess death tally is pretty low. Not saying there aren't any excess deaths, but 2020 only matched the 2019 figure in mid November. So perhaps 6 weeks more deaths, and actually the December numbers between the 2 years were reasonably similar. The big reason 2020s mortality rate is up on the last few years is the contribution of April's freaky spike (and the last few years being historically low anyway). November and December were on the high side of recent, but not excessively so. It's like we have got used to rate about 1.0%pa and have forgotten 1.1%* isn't historically high.way back in 1980 it was almost 2%- a sobering thought! *pending upto date december numbers Edited January 9, 2021 by nightowl Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 53 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said: The best thing people can do is get fit. But there are too many are lard buckets in this country doing no exercise and eating junk food; that is the real issue. I'm 47 now and have just done another approximate VO2Max test, and this time scored over 50, that rates as superior for my age group, and would be condidered excellent for a 19 year old. I've pretty much done this with no more that 20-40m a day typically 5-10k on an erg. So some have no reason to live for so many extra years.....they wouldn't know what a VO2 Max test was.....risk v reward.......for some it might be a longer life today because they have something to live for, for others it will be cake today, a wish and a prayer for the future. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikhail Liebenstein Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 42 minutes ago, winkie said: So some have no reason to live for so many extra years.....they wouldn't know what a VO2 Max test was.....risk v reward.......for some it might be a longer life today because they have something to live for, for others it will be cake today, a wish and a prayer for the future. Boris to blame! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Hun Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 2 hours ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said: Herd immunity might work with flu. The UK genuinely mistook COVID-19 for influenza. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Hun Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 2 hours ago, Will! said: If I’m reading your link correctly on my phone then it says 69,925 excess deaths in England in 2020. More civilian dead than the six years of World War 2, that was spending 65% of GDP. What a waste of money WW2 was. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roman Roady Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 (edited) 2 hours ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said: Expect a teenager with a knife round your house circa 2034. The only reason any kids will have such problems in the future will be down to reactions of their hysterical parents. Children are stronger than we think. Both my parents were evacuated in the war aged 11. My father had a horrible time. My mother eventually enjoyed herself but would recant stories of clutching her brother in some village hall screaming "I'm not leaving my brother" as some strangers tried to separate them. One uncle who was apprenticed to my Grandfather on the River Thames remembered running in terror during a bombing raid whilst returning home walking through Greenwich Park. His father and mate were laughing at him saying "where do you think you are running to? You might run to your death!" He would have been 14 or 15 at that time. The family lost everything to a V1 at the end of the war; my parents didnt live in their OWN house until they were 37. They never assaulted anyone (to the best of my knowledge). The future will take care of itself, stop worrying and enjoy this time with your kids...they really do grow up too quickly. Edited January 9, 2021 by Roman Roady spelling Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nightowl Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 1 minute ago, Peter Hun said: Herd immunity might work with flu. The UK genuinely mistook COVID-19 for influenza. So what difference does that make when forming policy? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arpeggio Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 https://www.bbc.com/news/55536762 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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