Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[FallingAwake]

29 minutes ago, Arpeggio said:

The seat belt comparison is completely flawed for numerous reasons.

Agreed. It's like comparing chalk and a cheese-making factory.

[Bruce Banner]

27 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

What's hard to understand. Lots of treatments have to be provided rapidly to prevent further deterioration e.g. clot busting drugs to minimise the damage caused by strokes.   

But those treatments can not be provided rapidly if the patient is unconscious and has in place an advance directive, which I do, that forbids any life saving treatment without consent in every instance. In that case the patient either dies or regains conscientiousness and makes their own decision of what treatment they want. 

27 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Well I did spend 4 yrs working as a companies SRO then CRO so perhaps I do.

However most of the time these assessments are made at the subconscious level. Few people need to be told or reminded to put on a seat belt as it provides an obvious benefit, around a 50% reduction in the chance of injury/death, for a completely trivial amount of effort.  Quite why you regard it as an attack on your personal liberty is a mystery to me. It is just one of the many rules we agree to follow in return for being allowed to drive a car.  

I don't need risk assessments to decide what to do thank you. If you want to use them to plan your daily life the go for it but please don't lecture me about it as I'm really not interested.

I object, on principle, to laws that are solely to protect an individual against their own actions and seat belt and crash helmet laws fall into that category. I wore a seatbelt before the laws came in and still do, I even remember to, it is automatic to me, but I still object to the compulsion. 

[Bruce Banner]

51 minutes ago, Arpeggio said:

The seat belt comparison is completely flawed for numerous reasons.

I only mentioned it in reply to this gentleman...

https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/235722-coronavirus-potential-black-swan/&do=findComment&comment=1103795983

 

[anonguest]

1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

However most of the time these assessments are made at the subconscious level. Few people need to be told or reminded to put on a seat belt as it provides an obvious benefit, around a 50% reduction in the chance of injury/death, for a completely trivial amount of effort.  Quite why you regard it as an attack on your personal liberty is a mystery to me. It is just one of the many rules we agree to follow in return for being allowed to drive a car.  

Likely because you, like millions of others, are a product of post-70's thinking and have never known a world where government did not dictate how to protect yourself - and cannot grasp/relate to the concepts of personal liberty in the same way that pre-70's people took for granted.  As young as I may have been at the time I recall very well the heated debates that went on about the major lines, regarding personal liberty, that was being crossed IF the seatbelt law was passed. 

IIRC a similar debate took place around the same time in the U.S and, to placate the politicians, the auto industry over there brought in the airbag - which we take for granted over here today - to negate the need for people to be required to wear seatbelts.

I can very much relate to BB's gripes.

Edited October 28, 2021 by anonguest

[Riedquat]

29 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

I object, on principle, to laws that are solely to protect an individual against their own actions and seat belt and crash helmet laws fall into that category. I wore a seatbelt before the laws came in and still do, I even remember to, it is automatic to me, but I still object to the compulsion. 

Amen! But don't expect anything other than to get patronised (at best) for saying that.

It's telling that CofVI says it's a mystery to him why someone would be bothered about it. Another one freely criticising something that he openly admits he cannot understand.

I've said it before and I'll say it again - "do something unless you have a good reason not to" is an obnoxious, dismissive, and unthinking retort to someone who is unimpressed by what you think they should do. I'll stick with "don't bother unless I think there's a good reason to." So I'll happily wear a seatbelt (or take a Covid vaccine) because it seems to me that the risks justify that level of mitigation. I'll usually, but not always, wear a bike helmet (depends where I'm going), but I'd utterly condemn anyone who says "then wear it all the time you're on your bike" - or suggests that it should be law.

Edited October 28, 2021 by Riedquat

[Arpeggio]

5 hours ago, Arpeggio said:

I forgot a couple with the seatbelt comparison brought up by others, with equivalents to the flawed argument in brackets;

7. There wasn't a lack of interest to autopsy people who had died in car crashes (Covid19), never mind being written into policy. When seatbelts (vaccines) were invented / new design features are added I'm not aware of a reluctance to autopsy for that either.

8. Half of the people who designed seatbelts (vaccines) weren't driving around without seatbelts on (unvaccinated) while trying to get children to wear seatbelts (vaccinate).

8 isn't the best comparison because children are less at risk than the people who work for the FDA, CDC and drug companies etc.

9. Seatbelts don't have undisclosed proprietary ingredients.

10. Seatbelts are not injected, bypassing first pass metabolism.

31 minutes ago, FallingAwake said:

Agreed. It's like comparing chalk and a cheese-making factory.

Yes it's like having a chalk sandwich for your lunch-break where you work in a chalk factory, then after work you go to evening art classes where you learn to draw pictures with different types of cheese.

[Bob8]

7 hours ago, Arpeggio said:

Viruses are sequences of genetic code taken from excretions in the absence of isolation of an entity that is confirmed to be what the particular genetic code is of. A hypothesis about the existence of an entity that cannot be isolated.

I see.

Except, the sequence codes for proteins. That include the proteins for transcription, perhaps reverse transcription, and for proteins. The proteins are found in the shells.

The shells are seen my electron microscope. They are also separated out by processes for separating out protein shelled (typically) particles and isolated separately from the nucleic acid chains. This can also be seen by serial dilution.

So, no. That really is a completely wrong statement. You really have no busy repeating this tosh.

Posted as a man who has worked in the field and helped do these things.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

On 15/02/2020 at 16:32, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

I propose a new Black Swan Virus. I will eat undercooked Black Swan for several meals and wait to develop early symptoms, before then attending a  Electrical Vehicle Conference at the QEII conference centre in Westminster. 

Yum... look what's on the menu.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10140739/North-Korea-pushes-delicious-BLACK-SWAN-meat-claims-exceptional-health-food.html

 

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

7 hours ago, Arpeggio said:

The vaccines work by causing the body to create its own spike protein, so that the body can adapt to this aspect of the virus and give it the heave ho, without the virus.

Vaccinated people can carry, catch and spread the "virus" as much as anyone. In the case of PHE data more so.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-28/getting-vaccinated-doesn-t-stop-people-from-spreading-delta

Yes, presumably that along with natural immunity is normal peaceful co-existence. The problem was never the virus, it has always been those that get sick with their stacked list of comorbidities.

[Will!]

9 hours ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

 

My take is, and has been from the start that what is really need is regular re-exposure to the virus.

The vaccines are half baked in the long term, and either people keep getting jabbed (assuming that actually works) or they just get on with things - half a dose of SARS-Cov-2 here and there if you have immunity keeps you topped up. This is why they are filling their pants over flu, normally most would have had some exposure and so would have some immunity, but guess what? We had a major FU called lockdown.

It was almost certain from the start that we would all be repeatedly exposed to the virus, so that’s much of a take.

As for the rest, here’s a concept that may not make sense to a salesman:  you can’t bullsh*t a virus.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

18 minutes ago, Will! said:

It was almost certain from the start that we would all be repeatedly exposed to the virus, so that’s much of a take.

As for the rest, here’s a concept that may not make sense to a salesman:  you can’t bullsh*t a virus.

I believe you introduced the BS phraseology.

Fact: this virus is pretty harmless to most.

Fact: there was a moral panic, mainly lead by pant filling baby boomers worried they might have their triple lock freebie cut short by their own expiry.

Fact: Viruses are everywhere as you say, and the only issue with this one was its ability to kill off deadwood.

[Will!]

3 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

I believe you introduced the BS phraseology.

Fact: this virus is pretty harmless to most.

Fact: there was a moral panic, mainly lead by pant filling baby boomers worried they might have their triple lock freebie cut short by their own expiry.

Fact: Viruses are everywhere as you say, and the only issue with this one was its ability to kill off deadwood.

There’s a problem with your utilitarian philosophy: it’s not limited to healthcare.

You can start by not providing healthcare to the useless weak, but that inevitably leads to asking who else is not useful enough to society to be allowed to use a finite resource, such as land, for example.

The list of roles useful enough to society is quite short.  Doctors weren’t on it when I last played this game as a first year medical student in the bar.  Salesmen weren’t either.

What use are you to a utilitarian society @Mikhail Liebenstein?

[zugzwang]

12 hours ago, Arpeggio said:

Do you mean this one?

and / or this one?

I just saw ranting.

 

 

The most recent for this discussion, i.e not large letter rants, is here:

 

Would you like to take it from here? ⬇️ I couldn't be bothered to correct you (again) but you could prod me I suppose?

 

Played yourself again, Lankaka

Saw the doomsday porn and couldn't help but link to it even though it represents an explicit refutation of your denialist claptrap about 'isolation'.

Of course SARS CoV 2 is a viral pathogen, the causative agent of Covid 19. Isolated, imaged and sequenced via whole genome sequencing millions of times from both human and animal hosts.

[zugzwang]

44 minutes ago, Will! said:

It was almost certain from the start that we would all be repeatedly exposed to the virus, so that’s much of a take.

As for the rest, here’s a concept that may not make sense to a salesman:  you can’t bullsh*t a virus.

 

As one by one the Nietzschean Supermen (Trumpy, Bozo, Bolso, Modi, Orban) have discovered.

Obviously, this anonymous coward would never talk carelessly about 'deadwood' in public for fear of getting his teeth knocked down his throat.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

14 minutes ago, Will! said:

There’s a problem with your utilitarian philosophy: it’s not limited to healthcare.

You can start by not providing healthcare to the useless weak, but that inevitably leads to asking who else is not useful enough to society to be allowed to use a finite resource, such as land, for example.

The list of roles useful enough to society is quite short.  Doctors weren’t on it when I last played this game as a first year medical student in the bar.  Salesmen weren’t either.

What use are you to a utilitarian society @Mikhail Liebenstein?

 

I can do all sorts of stuff. Build cryptographic chips (first job), build large containerised compute infrastructures, Tensor Mathematics, code in C++ and Python, Brew Beer, and sign large deals, pay lots of tax. You use salesman as an insult, but lots of sales guys I know at least are more technical than many of today's client and vendor technical architects.

[vadst43]

More Pfizer antics

https://tobyrogers.substack.com/p/ten-red-flags-in-the-fdas-risk-benefit

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

New ATH and lockdown for our comrades. You reap what you sow:

 

COVID-19: Moscow shuts schools and many businesses after number of daily coronavirus deaths in Russia hits all-time high

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

1 hour ago, Will! said:

There’s a problem with your utilitarian philosophy: it’s not limited to healthcare.

You can start by not providing healthcare to the useless weak, but that inevitably leads to asking who else is not useful enough to society to be allowed to use a finite resource, such as land, for example.

The list of roles useful enough to society is quite short.  Doctors weren’t on it when I last played this game as a first year medical student in the bar.  Salesmen weren’t either.

What use are you to a utilitarian society @Mikhail Liebenstein?

Didn’t you know? In a utilitarian society there will be a great demand for salesmen to sell on all that Chinese tat. Remember this stuff doesn’t sell itself. 😄

[anonguest]

54 minutes ago, vadst43 said:

More Pfizer antics

https://tobyrogers.substack.com/p/ten-red-flags-in-the-fdas-risk-benefit

Interesting reading.

Assuming it's all accurate and truthful, I wonder what some of our claimed qualified scientists and ardent pro-vaxxers here think of this?

Edited October 29, 2021 by anonguest

[Bob8]

11 hours ago, Arpeggio said:

The seat belt comparison is completely flawed for numerous reasons.

i.e. you say so!

[Will!]

Posted from my phone.

Today’s reading:

Effect of early treatment with fluvoxamine on risk of emergency care and hospitalisation among patients with COVID-19: the TOGETHER randomised, platform clinical trial

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(21)00448-4/fulltext

Edited October 29, 2021 by Will!

[zugzwang]

17 hours ago, Bob8 said:

Are they genuinely saying this has not happened?

 

There's a small number of denialist cranks associated with the alternative/holistic 'medicine' grift who affect to believe the SARS CoV 2 virus doesn't exist. Their chief inspiration is Stefan Lanka (pictured below), a former virologist turned self-publicist, who has spent three decades without success trying to resurrect the long discredited terrain theory of disease. These creeps, some of whom have done actual jail time for impersonating qualified medical practitioners, make a living advertising fake naturopathic remedies to the naive and stupid via the internet. Stefan Lanka is also a fellow traveller of the so-called New German Medicine movement, an antisemitic organisation established by the convicted alt. med monster (now deceased) Ryke Geerd Hamer.

Arpeggio adopted Lanka's position uncritically and without attribution earlier this year, clearly trying to pass off this science-y sounding hokum as his own handiwork. He periodically forgets himself, however, and attempts to quote genuine science to his cause, like the Nature paper he linked to above, all of which is naturally predicated on the assumption that the viral pathogen SARS Cov 2 is both real and the causative agent of Covid 19.

These lies and evasions would be amusing if they weren't so morally contemptible.

 

Edited October 29, 2021 by zugzwang

[Riedquat]

2 hours ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

 

I can do all sorts of stuff. Build cryptographic chips (first job), build large containerised compute infrastructures, Tensor Mathematics, code in C++ and Python, Brew Beer, and sign large deals, pay lots of tax. You use salesman as an insult, but lots of sales guys I know at least are more technical than many of today's client and vendor technical architects.

All rather less useful than a doctor I'd say. Humanity managed without most of those for a long, long time (except maybe brewing beer).

[Dweller]

1 hour ago, vadst43 said:

More Pfizer antics

https://tobyrogers.substack.com/p/ten-red-flags-in-the-fdas-risk-benefit

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZR6dO9KGx8
Vaccines 5- 11 - Dr Eric Rubin - 'We're never going to learn about how safe the vaccine is unless we start giving it'

[Bob8]

21 hours ago, Arpeggio said:

The trick for good punch is to only clench the fist just after contact.

It's a bit like putting a sand bag around a wooden pole and smashing it onto concrete, the wooden pole wont spit. It takes a lot of practise but once you get the timing right you can bend a 35kg  punchbag 90 degrees.

I would suggest that hard punching is a bit of a mystery once. Technique is of course vital, but some people walk into a boxing gym already punching harder than other bigger lads ever will.