Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[swankyman]

 

After all the fiasco, and info from other sources, which some will argue with (which is fair enough), but has been proven closer to the truth so far.... all the above is bollock5 imo.

If the mass dubious testing don't help the government, what next... 

Adopt a Mink?

Sorry I don't quite follow?

[swankyman]

Woman sheds coronavirus for 70 days without symptoms

A woman with COVID-19 in Washington state shed infectious virus particles for 70 days, meaning she was contagious during that entire time, despite never showing symptoms of the disease, according to a new report.

https://www.livescience.com/woman-sheds-infectious-coronavirus-70-days.html

[Timm]

 

And maybe kids half term.

Could be, but I doubt that would show up yet.

 

Why is there a reduced take up of tests?

Maybe less people have symptoms. (Chicken and egg)

 

And why hospital admissions leveling off?

Dunno. Maybe the number of sick people has stopped increasing so much.

 

But: If you test less - you find less.

[Itssimple]

 

Sorry I don't quite follow?

I don't believe anything from this government or their services/minions after last Saturday's presentation and the Whitty/Valance questioning.

[Megadebt]

 

Adopt a Mink?

 Refferring to a link here about a proposed cull of Mink.

This zoonotic virus may demand more than just a human toll; further known unknowns.

[The Preacherman]

 

The UK has two choices, neither of them politically motivated.

Eradicate the virus or keep falling behind those who have.

Belorus seem to have had success by letting it rip.

 

 

[swankyman]

 

I don't believe anything from this government or their services/minions after last Saturday's presentation and the Whitty/Valance questioning.

I do think the government is scared by the 'expert' 'modelling'. It's a hard position to sit with the 'experts' screaming at you that the sky's falling. If the government doesn't do something and the 'experts' are correct then they are literally screwed for a generation at the voting box. As I've said before it looks better to fail trying than fail without trying.

No idea what fail means though 🤨

The models are the problem. They are untested. And an untested model is a total waste time. Not much better than a guess.

The whole economy is been controlled by a couple of algorithms churning through data on a laptop somewhere. Dangerous.

[The Preacherman]

 

Eradicate = Zero domestic transmission for 14 days.

Falling behind? Rising debt/capita + rising unemployment + significantly reduced or negative GDP growth.

You'd need to cull many species of mammals as well as SARS-CoV-2 transmits in them. 

Dozens of mammals could be susceptible to SARS-CoV-2

https://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/2020/oct/dozens-mammals-could-be-susceptible-sars-cov-2

[The Preacherman]

 

I do think the government is scared by the 'expert' 'modelling'. It's a hard position to sit with the 'experts' screaming at you that the sky's falling. If the government doesn't do something and the 'experts' are correct then they are literally screwed for a generation at the voting box. As I've said before it looks better to fail trying than fail without trying.

No idea what fail means though 🤨

The models are the problem. They are untested. And an untested model is a total waste time. Not much better than a guess.

The whole economy is been controlled by a couple of algorithms churning through data on a laptop somewhere. Dangerous.

There a been a worrying growth of turning to models, algorithms and machine learning to make decisions. Here's another example that will lead to deaths from cancer.

 

 

[swankyman]

 

 Refferring to a link here about a proposed cull of Mink.

This zoonotic virus may demand more than just a human toll; further known unknowns.

Bats? Ferrets ? 

Ummmm

Evidence of SARS-CoV infection has also been observed in many other marketplace species, including the cat (Felis catus), the red fox (Vulpes vulpes), and the Chinese ferret badger (Melogale moschata) (31, 96).

Good I don't like cats 😂

 

[The Preacherman]

Whitty and Vallance receive a rap on the knuckles from the statistics regulator over their sexed up covid death charts. 

 

 

[swankyman]

 

Whitty and Vallance receive a rap on the knuckles from the statistics regulator over their sexed up covid death charts. 

 

 

 

[Megadebt]

 I wouldn't want to be in Boris's shoes if a cull of domestic pets needs to be ordered.

The H in HIV....I had to euthenise (kill) a cat of mine some time ago who was FIV+ . 

[swankyman]

 

 I wouldn't want to be in Boris's shoes if a cull of domestic pets needs to be ordered.

The H in HIV....I had to euthenise (kill) a cat of mine some time ago who was FIV+ . 

Doesn't the RSPCA get the most donations per year than any of the human charities?

I think that killing all the cats and dogs would lead to a revolution.

I have to kill our chickens when they get ill. Not fun, they flap like mad after you break their neck.

[Megadebt]

 

Whitty and Vallance receive a rap on the knuckles from the statistics regulator over their sexed up covid death charts. 

 

 

 Your analysis has been hugely biased too, I can't be arsed to trudge through hundreds of of your postings on this thread to quote you directly.  

      

 

 

Pot   kettle  .... 

 Agreed all data should be available, realtime, for anyone.  Kills any easy accusations of blagging.

[captainb]

 

Doesn't the RSPCA get the most donations per year than any of the human charities?

I think that killing all the cats and dogs would lead to a revolution.

I have to kill our chickens when they get ill. Not fun, they flap like mad after you break their neck.

Nah in top 20 though.

 

Cancer, Blind, Children... people tend to leave legacy's in their wills of £100ks to those... rather than £10 in a tin

[Megadebt]

 

Doesn't the RSPCA get the most donations per year than any of the human charities?

I think that killing all the cats and dogs would lead to a revolution.

I have to kill our chickens when they get ill. Not fun, they flap like mad after you break their neck.

Yes, like taking guns away from the USA,  we like our domestic pets here. 

But what if...?   how to make the Conservative party unelectable for the next two generations....

Again this wartime coalition government in times of national emergency idea that no-one gets.

[swankyman]

 

Yes, like taking guns away from the USA,  we like our domestic pets here. 

But what if...?   how to make the Conservative party unelectable for the next two generations....

Again this wartime coalition government in times of national emergency idea that no-one gets.

Okay, but what is the metric to determine when a coalition government would kick in?

[Megadebt]

 Just a loose idea,  I think around the time of the "many more will loose loved ones" speech before lockdown.  

 I'm suprised there is no civil emergency planning in place already.  Imagine nuclear war, but contained strategic rather than tactical...if there is such a thing: would the pair of them still be bickering over a despatch box, in some ferroconcrete bunker?

 I suggest for 'civvies' and non-key workers,  life disruption and economic strife now maybe actually be worse than for many here than during the prelude and opening months of ww2. (the 'phoney' war)

    

[The Preacherman]

A NHS data analyst speaks. 

 

 

Edited November 6, 2020 by The Preacherman

[nightowl]

 

Belorus seem to have had success by letting it rip.

 

 

The UK's mortality rate for 2020 isn't remarkably high by historic standards either, and when I say historic I mean 2000-2003ish.  

From memory 2020 is about the same as 2009 but even if it crept up because 1/6th of year is left still to go, it still only reaches 2003 - a year embedded into all our memories for deaths and doom I'm sure 🙄

[Arpeggio]

 

The UK's mortality rate for 2020 isn't remarkably high by historic standards either, and when I say historic I mean 2000-2003ish.  

From memory 2020 is about the same as 2009 but even if it crept up because 1/6th of year is left still to go, it still only reaches 2003 - a year embedded into all our memories for deaths and doom I'm sure 🙄

Ah the great nothing of 2003 I remember it well. I was on my bicycle and didn't crash.

I crashed in 1999 though, right into a lamp post, was going too fast and couldn't turn away enough. My penny farthing was wrecked and there were Shillings all over floor from my pocket.

[A.steve]

 

Belorus seem to have had success by letting it rip.

Have you considered the possibility that the novel virus is so unprecedented that the entire population of Belarus has actually died from this terrible disease... and the political protests are actually hoards of the living undead?  Will our third wave be an unprecedented zombie invasion?

[SAGE:  If you present this idea as fact at your next public information briefing, I demand commission!]

Edited November 6, 2020 by A.steve

[Clarky Cat]

 

Belorus seem to have had success by letting it rip.

 

 

I've discussed this before. Ivor Cummins has no idea.

Belarus did not let it rip - their policy was and is "test test test" and isolate people in hospital using their large excess of hospital beds.

https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3543

[swankyman]

 

I've discussed this before. Ivor Cummins has no idea.

Belarus did not let it rip - their policy was and is "test test test" and isolate people in hospital using their large excess of hospital beds.

https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3543

Interesting bit from article:

Another factor is that Belarus has very few care homes (203 beds per 100 000 of the population compared with 854 in the UK), with most elderly citizens living separately.10 This has helped shield its most vulnerable. “In many cases in Belarus, you have already had some isolation of elderly people, particularly in the countryside or in single flats” says Nilsson.

Not sure where it says they 'test test test' though. It just says they have tested around 10 percent of the population.

Edited November 6, 2020 by swankyman