I think the wait is over

[Speed1987]

Examples of Birmingham developments, this is just the centre....

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/business/shape-things-come-birminghams-skyline-14108165.amp

[2rocketman]

8 hours ago, Freezer? Best place for it said:

The BBC is The Establishment’s back crack, and now makes Channel 5 look high-brow.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47155720

 

[2rocketman]

28 minutes ago, Speed1987 said:

I've noticed the complete opposite to be fair here in Birmingham, increased buying pressure 25 people are viewing my mates house this Saturday, even with Brexit fears. 

Land being developed by house builders everywhere I turn and houses being trickled onto the market very very slowly.

I think the economy will be damaged in the next 12 months, answer monetary inflation, Q+E, increased competition from banks to lower rates.

Increased help to buy support, reduced council building and auctioning of council houses, this is happening here in Birmingham right now.

Easier access to mortgages maybe even a return to a true 100% mortgage.

Actually it's most likely after Brexit we will see even more buyers, I know plenty holding off for afterwards, maybe my mates house would have around 50-100 viewers, houses here are easy going up 7-12% near Birmingham city some fetching 75% increase in two years.

London is cooling not crashing, the market can't be entered by anybody now you need to be a wealthy. HS2 is driving all middle range earners to Birmingham and they'll use HS2 to visit mom and dad.

Immigration is still high, to high to reduce house prices... even after Brexit it will still likely stand at 300k a year. 

I think your time will come up there, just need to be patient. They were selling the same day down here around 2015 then everything changed. 50-100 viewings seems a bit extreme but then so does 25 in one day! As for London, I looked at some flats out of intrigue in Battersea some 12-18 months ago. They are nearly 200k cheaper today than they were then, circa 30%. There are some very big reductions across the board up there and it’s not over yet. I’d say it is crashing. 

[Si1]

8 minutes ago, 2rocketman said:

I think your time will come up there, just need to be patient. They were selling the same day down here around 2015 then everything changed. 50-100 viewings seems a bit extreme but then so does 25 in one day! As for London, I looked at some flats out of intrigue in Battersea some 12-18 months ago. They are nearly 200k cheaper today than they were then, circa 30%. There are some very big reductions across the board up there and it’s not over yet. I’d say it is crashing. 

I remember a few years ago there was a TV documentary cited here, showing people buying/investing in New Battersea apartments. You can't go wrong with London property they said. Interesting of someone could dig out out 

[2rocketman]

Just now, Si1 said:

I remember a few years ago there was a TV documentary cited here, showing people buying/investing in New Battersea apartments. You can't go wrong with London property they said. Interesting of someone could dig out out 

Would probably be like watching a comedy. Going to get worse before it gets better. Not sure if you ever go up that way but the amount of apartment blocks going up is immense. All high end stuff aimed at the investor who has disappeared. 

[bear.getting.old]

On 06/02/2019 at 10:16, ftb_fml said:

Nice post / thread

I'd agree that the tide is definitely turning; although I'm not sure we've gone over the edge yet. It's taken over two years for London to reach the point is has and those of us outside PCL are still waiting to ride the ensuing ripples.

Both sentiment and hard economic / HPI data have also been declining for a while now; and globally this seems to have accelerated markedly in the past 3 months - which I believe is very important. I think given all the factors concerned the rate of deterioration is only going to increase for the foreseeable.

Public sentiment is definitely souring towards the establishment lies and their increasingly obvious fallout, however en-masse the people are still largely uneducated and placated; still being led by the nose by the media. This has not been, and there is unlikely to be, some enormous national epiphany / awakening of understanding. As times get harder the public look for someone to blame (anger which is often hi-jacked by opportunists with agendas - see Brexit and Trump); when (if) they get better, the people go back to sleep. 

How things play out also depends on the government's actions; however IMO the incumbents' time is almost up as they've proven to be one of the most shamefully dysfunctional and overtly exploititive assemblies in living memory; one whose hypocrisy, lies and ineptitude have become clear for all to see as the situation has deteriorated. 

A Brexit "deal" outcome might result if short-term optimism for 6 months until everyone realises we're all screwed. A "no deal" outcome will cause things to collapse far more rapidly since everyone has been conditioned to accept this as basically the end of the world. Regardless, in the medium to long term things will continue to tank as people realise the true horror of the situation we're facing (in general terms, not just as a result of Brexit) and we'll see recession, job losses, asset price collapse and a change of government as the Tories rightfully cop the blame for it all despite thier whimpering and pointing of the finger of blame at Brexit as the sole cause.

I don't think anyone can deny that the housing market is in for a kicking and that the decline has already begun; the only questions remaining now are "how long" and "how far". 

 

 

 

What true horror? All the things you describe sound like project fear textbook of the remain camp. If the UK thrives after brexit while the EU suffers and collapses without us, then that is good for HPI. Things are still good in the USA. I don't see a recession here and you forget that we are at record levels of employment here. I accept though that if Labour get in that will equal doom but I don't see that happening 

[bear.getting.old]

18 hours ago, 24gray24 said:

Global bubble means at some point tptb have to switch from blaming Brexit to blaming someone far away eg us or China. 

The certainty is they will try to keep prices up. 

No solution offered so far can do that. Htb for older properties? Won't work as currency cannot stand the losses. Etc.

So that's where Corbyn economics comes in. Milk £2 a pint will do it  so that must be the plan? 

What global bubble? There are plenty of places in the world where houses aren't UK stupid prices

[MarkG]

2 hours ago, bear.getting.old said:

There are plenty of places in the world where houses aren't UK stupid prices

Yeah, a few weeks ago I was looking at an ad for a shack in Alberta with a few acres of land for $60k (a bit less than 40k pounds, I think). Gonna wait until prices drop more, though.

Of course, I may regret it if Trudeau loses next year and the Conservatives build the oil pipelines he's been blocking.

Edited February 8, 2019 by MarkG

[“Nasty Piece of work”]

4 hours ago, bear.getting.old said:

What true horror?

In all due respect, putting Brexit to one side,  the UK is about to go in recession. You just are kidding yourself about record employment  -  a burger flipper with three jobs doesn’t have discretionary spending.  May’s race to the bottom continues. I last voted Tory in 1997  - never again.  You, like too many,  just don’t get it.

[24gray24]

5 hours ago, bear.getting.old said:

What global bubble? There are plenty of places in the world where houses aren't UK stupid prices

Global bubble in debt. As that bubble contracts , asset prices drop. 

There are house price bubbles in uk, Canada,  Australia,  China, usa. 

Brexit scapegoat has to be morphed into something far away's  fault. And keep calm and carry on ( buying houses) won't work. 

Any ideas on what will?  I can only see milk £2 a pint working; it's that or house price crash. 

[2rocketman]

19 minutes ago, Freezer? Best place for it said:

In all due respect, putting Brexit to one side,  the UK is about to go in recession. You just are kidding yourself about record employment  -  a burger flipper with three jobs doesn’t have discretionary spending.  May’s race to the bottom continues. I last voted Tory in 1997  - never again.  You, like too many,  just don’t get it.

Agree with you. Many have been forced out of one good job only to replace it with 2 minimum wage positions. I think the employment figures are grossly distorted. I was chatting to a coach driver the other day on £8.34 per hour. Even some carpet fitters (working for big stores) are close to minimum wage now due to foreign labour. 

[“Nasty Piece of work”]

Such an important job as a coach driver getting a few coloured buttons per hour - why would you want a skilled and responsible job?  You can’t take out a Bus Stop stacking shelves.

[TwoWolves]

There's quite a lot of evidence that there is a crash underway. Prices are falling in Silicon Valley and New York I read recently, even super bubble Hong Kong is drooping.

Things have been slowing here but high immigration and low supply coupled with strong employment have made the falls more gradual. It's coming now though.

Best people to watch is the housebuilders, they have cut new activity sharply in the last six months. They are experts in the market, much more than estate agents and they are clearly positioned for a crash.

[simvastatin]

43 minutes ago, 2rocketman said:

Agree with you. Many have been forced out of one good job only to replace it with 2 minimum wage positions. I think the employment figures are grossly distorted. I was chatting to a coach driver the other day on £8.34 per hour. Even some carpet fitters (working for big stores) are close to minimum wage now due to foreign labour. 

My company is going through big problems, just had my hours reduced, nothing to do with brexit not sure if the company I work for will still be in business in 8 months 

[2rocketman]

49 minutes ago, TwoWolves said:

There's quite a lot of evidence that there is a crash underway. Prices are falling in Silicon Valley and New York I read recently, even super bubble Hong Kong is drooping.

Things have been slowing here but high immigration and low supply coupled with strong employment have made the falls more gradual. It's coming now though.

Best people to watch is the housebuilders, they have cut new activity sharply in the last six months. They are experts in the market, much more than estate agents and they are clearly positioned for a crash.

I think there are a lot of people living in denial. It’s hard to see the wood from the trees though when you are up to your eyes in it! I will be amazed if we don’t see a big crash.

Car sales, holidays, apple, houses, fashion clothing, restaurants etc are all going to take a beating surely? 

[ftb_fml]

7 hours ago, bear.getting.old said:

What true horror? All the things you describe sound like project fear textbook of the remain camp. If the UK thrives after brexit while the EU suffers and collapses without us, then that is good for HPI. Things are still good in the USA. I don't see a recession here and you forget that we are at record levels of employment here. I accept though that if Labour get in that will equal doom but I don't see that happening 

Lots of great responses on this subject already and I don't want to go OT on the fallout of Brexit, however I'm fully expecting: recession, bankruptcy, job losses, further inflation (imported goods and their knock-on effect), asset deflation, stock market correction, further debt, further wealth inequality, more homelessness, falling living standards, civil unrest and general hardship.

This has been building for years (since well before the can was punted far down the road post-2008) and while I don't think Brexit will be the singular or largest cause, IMO it will catalyse the collapse. We were screwed before Brexit will be more-so once its taken place and were never set to thrive under either scenario. As you suggest I think the only way it will benefit us is if it proves to be a lucky escape if the EU does collapse; which may or may not happen - they do have a lot of deadwood and have you seen Germany's industrial output figures recently?

On paper things are still "good" in the US; except that they're showing many of the hallmarks of heading into a recession (housing bubble starting to deflate, lots of stock market volatility) while debt grows ever higher. Globally there are plenty of warning signs too - ridiculously over-valued housing markets showing weakness / turning / plummetting (Here, the US, China, Canada, Australia) while manufacture is falling as consumers lose their appetite.

Back over here, by all accounts it seems that the employment figures are heavily "massaged" and tehre are plenty of people "in work" who struggle to make a living wage.

[dougless]

17 minutes ago, ftb_fml said:

Lots of great responses on this subject already and I don't want to go OT on the fallout of Brexit, however I'm fully expecting: recession, bankruptcy, job losses, further inflation (imported goods and their knock-on effect), asset deflation, stock market correction, further debt, further wealth inequality, more homelessness, falling living standards, civil unrest and general hardship.

This has been building for years (since well before the can was punted far down the road post-2008) and while I don't think Brexit will be the singular or largest cause, IMO it will catalyse the collapse. We were screwed before Brexit will be more-so once its taken place and were never set to thrive under either scenario. As you suggest I think the only way it will benefit us is if it proves to be a lucky escape if the EU does collapse; which may or may not happen - they do have a lot of deadwood and have you seen Germany's industrial output figures recently?

On paper things are still "good" in the US; except that they're showing many of the hallmarks of heading into a recession (housing bubble starting to deflate, lots of stock market volatility) while debt grows ever higher. Globally there are plenty of warning signs too - ridiculously over-valued housing markets showing weakness / turning / plummetting (Here, the US, China, Canada, Australia) while manufacture is falling as consumers lose their appetite.

Back over here, by all accounts it seems that the employment figures are heavily "massaged" and tehre are plenty of people "in work" who struggle to make a living wage.

You make some very good points here and it tallies with how I am seeing things at present.

[user not found]

A couple we vaguely know got a sudden bill for £2k... Very worried about paying it off over the next year. Seriously how can people in full time employment have that little gap between income and outgoings? Yet more evidence that people obviously overstretch themselves to buy a (bigger) house ... Second car... Foreign holiday.

Good friend has just spent £2k on a wooden play house for daughters but needed help from parents when car packed up.

[Errol]

2 hours ago, 2rocketman said:

 I was chatting to a coach driver the other day on £8.34 per hour. 

People were getting more than this 20 years ago for school-leaver admin jobs (i.e. filing, data entry etc).

The whole economy is buggered beyond belief.

Edited February 8, 2019 by Errol

[Pop321]

2 hours ago, Freezer? Best place for it said:

Such an important job as a coach driver getting a few coloured buttons per hour - why would you want a skilled and responsible job?  You can’t take out a Bus Stop stacking shelves.

Agree. Infact pay for me is a funny one  

If the job creates wealth for the employer then it pays well....I get that, even if the job is not responsible or worthwhile. For example, finance, a premiership footballer etc. If they earn the employer £80k a week then they can get paid £40k. I know we can challenge what income they do generate but in principal i see the relationship...and if the finance revenue (or football tickets) stops so does the high pay. 

An exception to the above seems to be executives of large companies (who never set up the company and are effectively just an employee) who pay themselves millions without haven taken any initial director risk. 

The example of the coach driver is where I start to see issue. There is a complete disconnect for perhaps less profitable but vital and skilled (or semi skilled) jobs that are required and have responsibility eg nurse, prison officer, teaching assistant (and the coach driver) 

Someone mentioned to me a ‘living in Australia’ program yesterday showed social workers working with kids with learning difficulties. Uk pays £20k and Australia pays £44k. Similar with nursing, teaching and emergency services. It’s not the pay that struck me but rather the value it gives the job and the message it sends.

I get the economics....but key is supply and demand. If there are a queue of people demanding to work in hospitals, prisons, police etc then fair enough....but if there isn’t the government will need to ensure they pay a competitive wage. 

Shortage of prison officers (earn around £23k)....orderly queue this way? 

It might be then need to increase pay to say £35k and get rid of the final salary pension. Then more competitive with private jobs...and whilst a final salary scheme is great it wouldnt really sell a job to a 23 years old.

I am not sure why ANYONE is s teacher in a tough secondary school in North London....on a similar pay structure as a primary teacher in a North Yorkshire village. Both a challenge and vital, but very different jobs and I am sure very different skills and demand for the job. I guess we rely on good faith....but if I were 23 and not being offered a job for life then my ‘good faith’ would be very low for any employer. 

[Pop321]

41 minutes ago, Sausage said:

A couple we vaguely know got a sudden bill for £2k... Very worried about paying it off over the next year. Seriously how can people in full time employment have that little gap between income and outgoings? Yet more evidence that people obviously overstretch themselves to buy a (bigger) house ... Second car... Foreign holiday.

Good friend has just spent £2k on a wooden play house for daughters but needed help from parents when car packed up.

True and not even a recent occurance. My job involved finance. Lots of people earning £60k household income and less that £5k savings. (Today’s money) 

At 20 (in 1988),  I had seen so much already I knew that being frugal brought me more happiness than a new sofa. Made me save and other than family holidays (albeit always on a deal) I rarely spent and we built massive savings. Really massive...ie I have just left work at 50. 

I saw lots of examples of middle aged ‘kids’ borrowing from elderly parents even back then. And those elderly parents weren’t boomers they were the hard up pre boomers...whilst the 40 year olds were driving new big cars their parents were sharing a small 10 year old Nissan type car.  

I was lucky...at 18 I got an officer junior type job and worked my way up.

Not sure I could save like that nowadays....but if I did my plan wouldn’t involve university or help to buy. I know house prices would be massively disconcerting.  

[ftb_fml]

On 06/02/2019 at 13:24, winkie said:

This guy Richard Baldwin was talking on the radio today about the book out this year called:

The Globotics Upheaval.......fascinating, we just don't know what is coming our way, it is the service jobs we will be losing including legal and journalist work....Brexit will make us a bigger part of the greater globalised world faster than would have done by staying for longer......careful what is wished for.....having said that the real people to people caring, social, therapy, healing style jobs will be better placed, the low valued jobs become the most valued jobs.When our job depends on our humanity, we are going to be okay.

https://www.waterstones.com/book/the-globotics-upheaval/richard-baldwin//9781474609012

Nice point about the "low valued job" - I hope it pans out this way as it's disgusting how little we as a society value those who are truly essential to its core operation!

1 hour ago, dougless said:

You make some very good points here and it tallies with how I am seeing things at present.

Thanks - I lack the insight and knowledge of many on here but only seeking to call it how I see it. Glad you feel the same!

22 minutes ago, Pop321 said:

Agree. Infact pay for me is a funny one  

If the job creates wealth for the employer then it pays well....I get that, even if the job is not responsible or worthwhile. For example, finance, a premiership footballer etc. If they earn the employer £80k a week then they can get paid £40k. I know we can challenge what income they do generate but in principal i see the relationship...and if the finance revenue (or football tickets) stops so does the high pay. 

An exception to the above seems to be executives of large companies (who never set up the company and are effectively just an employee) who pay themselves millions without haven taken any initial director risk. 

The example of the coach driver is where I start to see issue. There is a complete disconnect for perhaps less profitable but vital and skilled (or semi skilled) jobs that are required and have responsibility eg nurse, prison officer, teaching assistant (and the coach driver) 

Someone mentioned to me a ‘living in Australia’ program yesterday showed social workers working with kids with learning difficulties. Uk pays £20k and Australia pays £44k. Similar with nursing, teaching and emergency services. It’s not the pay that struck me but rather the value it gives the job and the message it sends.

I get the economics....but key is supply and demand. If there are a queue of people demanding to work in hospitals, prisons, police etc then fair enough....but if there isn’t the government will need to ensure they pay a competitive wage. 

Shortage of prison officers (earn around £23k)....orderly queue this way? 

It might be then need to increase pay to say £35k and get rid of the final salary pension. Then more competitive with private jobs...and whilst a final salary scheme is great it wouldnt really sell a job to a 23 years old.

I am not sure why ANYONE is s teacher in a tough secondary school in North London....on a similar pay structure as a primary teacher in a North Yorkshire village. Both a challenge and vital, but very different jobs and I am sure very different skills and demand for the job. I guess we rely on good faith....but if I were 23 and not being offered a job for life then my ‘good faith’ would be very low for any employer. 

Completely agree with this.

IMO it's both obscene and absurd how our society seems to attribute pay in a seemingly totally-counter-meritocratic manner -  those who contribute the most real value to society through performing essential (often grotty and stressful) jobs get sod all, in contrast to those who take enormous sums for the creation of nothing of legitimate value in servitude only of their own greed.

[longgone]

15 hours ago, 2rocketman said:

I think your time will come up there, just need to be patient. They were selling the same day down here around 2015 then everything changed. 50-100 viewings seems a bit extreme but then so does 25 in one day! As for London, I looked at some flats out of intrigue in Battersea some 12-18 months ago. They are nearly 200k cheaper today than they were then, circa 30%. There are some very big reductions across the board up there and it’s not over yet. I’d say it is crashing. 

pretty sure they wanted 800k for a 1 bed 600k is still a joke.  250k maybe 

[longgone]

3 hours ago, 2rocketman said:

Agree with you. Many have been forced out of one good job only to replace it with 2 minimum wage positions. I think the employment figures are grossly distorted. I was chatting to a coach driver the other day on £8.34 per hour. Even some carpet fitters (working for big stores) are close to minimum wage now due to foreign labour. 

i got this in my email the other day  24k a year they want to pay ? 

less money than 20 years ago. ? whats that 11 quid an hour. 

 

We are looking for a self-motivated and dedicated break-fix engineer to work in a fast-paced, customer focused environment. You will have the responsibility of responding to customer calls in a timely and efficient manner to troubleshoot, analyse and diagnose HP, Dell, Lenovo, and IBM servers in a critical environment.

Job Description: 
Install, troubleshoot, and maintain client equipment (e.g. Lenovo/HP/Dell/IBM Servers). 
Identify, analyse, and repair product failures.
Maintain and order spare parts as needed. 
Determine and recommend which product or services best fit the customers' needs.
Relies on experience and judgment to plan and accomplish goals.
Familiar with a variety of the field concepts, practices, and procedures a plus. 

Your Experience and Skills: 
Possess a positive attitude and have strong analytical skills
Must be a self-starter who is able to work independently without supervision and within a team environment.
Must possess a professional demeanor and the ability to develop effective working relationships with end users and stakeholders.
Working experience with Hardware RAID (e.g. IBM ServeRAID, HP SmartArray, Dell PERC).
Working experience with IBM DSA, Dell DSET, HP Firmware updates
Solaris knowledge
Working experience with Remote Access Cards (e.g. IBM IMM, HP iLo, Dell iDRAC).
Working experience with IBM BladeCenter.
Working experience with HP BL\DL\ML series.
Working experience with Dell PowerEdge series.
Should be a good team player.
CompTia A+ and/or Server+ certification a plus.

[dougless]

15 minutes ago, longgone said:

i got this in my email the other day  24k a year they want to pay ? 

less money than 20 years ago. ? whats that 11 quid an hour. 

 

We are looking for a self-motivated and dedicated break-fix engineer to work in a fast-paced, customer focused environment. You will have the responsibility of responding to customer calls in a timely and efficient manner to troubleshoot, analyse and diagnose HP, Dell, Lenovo, and IBM servers in a critical environment.

Job Description: 
Install, troubleshoot, and maintain client equipment (e.g. Lenovo/HP/Dell/IBM Servers). 
Identify, analyse, and repair product failures.
Maintain and order spare parts as needed. 
Determine and recommend which product or services best fit the customers' needs.
Relies on experience and judgment to plan and accomplish goals.
Familiar with a variety of the field concepts, practices, and procedures a plus. 

Your Experience and Skills: 
Possess a positive attitude and have strong analytical skills
Must be a self-starter who is able to work independently without supervision and within a team environment.
Must possess a professional demeanor and the ability to develop effective working relationships with end users and stakeholders.
Working experience with Hardware RAID (e.g. IBM ServeRAID, HP SmartArray, Dell PERC).
Working experience with IBM DSA, Dell DSET, HP Firmware updates
Solaris knowledge
Working experience with Remote Access Cards (e.g. IBM IMM, HP iLo, Dell iDRAC).
Working experience with IBM BladeCenter.
Working experience with HP BL\DL\ML series.
Working experience with Dell PowerEdge series.
Should be a good team player.
CompTia A+ and/or Server+ certification a plus.

They are having a Giraffe....