Death debt divorce.

[user not found]

Folks often say house prices can't fall as too much demand, not enough supply, low IRs. The 3 Ds don't care about those factors... Last winter saw a rise in excess deaths (lovely phrase!). Ageing population should accelerate this.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-02/britains-excess-winter-deaths-soar-highest-over-40-years

Personally I think there's a 4th ? "desire for debt". In a falling market people get nervous and risk averse.

[spyguy]

8 minutes ago, Sausage said:

Folks often say house prices can't fall as too much demand, not enough supply, low IRs. The 3 Ds don't care about those factors... Last winter saw a rise in excess deaths (lovely phrase!). Ageing population should accelerate this.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-02/britains-excess-winter-deaths-soar-highest-over-40-years

Personally I think there's a 4th ? "desire for debt". In a falling market people get nervous and risk averse.

Its ******.

The current set of house price inflation is caused by Gormless Gordons credit bubble, then the BoE trying to get themselves off the hook with QE.

Itll be fixed by wages doubling or housing halving.

There's a numberof town I follow where there are more probates than purchases.

 

 

 

[btl_hater]

Forced sellers and less Tory voters. Now that’s what I call a BOGOF deal.

[Houdini]

29 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Its ******.

The current set of house price inflation is caused by Gormless Gordons credit bubble, then the BoE trying to get themselves off the hook with QE.

Itll be fixed by wages doubling or housing halving.

There's a number of town I follow where there are more probates than purchases.

The plan in 2008 was to use inflation to solve the issue but China rather broke that plan....

Where do you get probate details from as I suspect probate > than house sales is true for a lot of this country..

[Mrs Bear]

Two Ds you didn't mention are Dementia and Decrepitude - the need to sell for care home fees.  

Twice in this family - my mother and an aunt. 

[Tes Tickle]

We're in the midst of a long-term sell/buy process.  We started looking at what was available in Jan 2018, there was definitely a spike in the number of neglected looking old houses and bungalows with vacant possession in the spring/early summer, presumably it takes a few months until they appear on the market.

We'll be ready to buy next month, so we'll be ready for next year's batch of places with 1980s decor and handrails in the bathroom.

[spyguy]

2 hours ago, Houdini said:

The plan in 2008 was to use inflation to solve the issue but China rather broke that plan....

Where do you get probate details from as I suspect probate > than house sales is true for a lot of this country..

Just looking at the house piccies on the listings.

You can spot a probate a mile off.

'No chain ....' piccies full of shower rails and those indestructible furniture OAPs buy.

[longgone]

2 hours ago, spyguy said:

Its ******.

The current set of house price inflation is caused by Gormless Gordons credit bubble, then the BoE trying to get themselves off the hook with QE.

Itll be fixed by wages doubling or housing halving.

There's a numberof town I follow where there are more probates than purchases.

 

 

 

surely if wages double you would be in the same place as now ?? 

wages increase so does the ability to borrow more. 

[spyguy]

9 minutes ago, longgone said:

surely if wages double you would be in the same place as now ?? 

wages increase so does the ability to borrow more. 

Not quite.

Idiot Browns massive credit boom saw people borrowing ~9+ times their income - 5 x LTE plus non existent bonues.

MMR has fixed 80% of mortgages at 4.5 LTE max - if you can even borrow that.

That shows up in the ver low number of property transactions.

There's no point banging on about houses have gone up 1.35% when there a s0d all houses selling.

My guess normally transaction numbers will return for non London/Se will be sorted by 30% wage inflation and 30% house price deflation.

London/Se face a much bigger problem - HPI has to fall a lot. And the area has lost a lot of high paying jobs and gained a lot of non working migrants.

 

[jimmy2x3]

i think you are all missing the one major reason. 

this beast has been going for 20 years  now, older people only buy property if they have a property to sell. 50+ dont jump on the property ladder first rung often. by that time if they have not bought they have managed to aquire a decent council or association house. and they think, why give that up now so i need to fix a roof, pay a mortgage, repair a bathroom and equip with all the equipment mentioned above in later years. so these people stay put and accept that this is it for them. and they are probably happier for it as well, no mortgage worries and the council will not chuck you out. 

 

which brings me onto the main point. its young people that buy houses, not old people. they bring their money into the market. but because of 20 years of hpi they have not bought or entered the market and will mostly now just become they older people that will never buy. 

 

so you see this is the biggest thing to crash the market, the very fact that there are very few young buyers. no young buyers means no market at all. means prices will definetly crash and crash fast as the population death bubble increases. 

[spyguy]

24 minutes ago, jimmy2x3 said:

i think you are all missing the one major reason. 

this beast has been going for 20 years  now, older people only buy property if they have a property to sell. 50+ dont jump on the property ladder first rung often. by that time if they have not bought they have managed to aquire a decent council or association house. and they think, why give that up now so i need to fix a roof, pay a mortgage, repair a bathroom and equip with all the equipment mentioned above in later years. so these people stay put and accept that this is it for them. and they are probably happier for it as well, no mortgage worries and the council will not chuck you out. 

 

which brings me onto the main point. its young people that buy houses, not old people. they bring their money into the market. but because of 20 years of hpi they have not bought or entered the market and will mostly now just become they older people that will never buy. 

 

so you see this is the biggest thing to crash the market, the very fact that there are very few young buyers. no young buyers means no market at all. means prices will definetly crash and crash fast as the population death bubble increases. 

Its ~15 years.

The issues are:

- BTL, who  replaced FTB from 2002-2017, will be exiting the market. Some know this, some are clueless. 

- Most people under 40 are little to no equity. Most appear to be buying HTB, so will hve zilch equity at all.

You already see the phenomena of getting more n more house for your money as they get bigger. Once you get beyond ~5 local wages the number of people with more money drops to almost nothing.

I see it in Scabby - go beyond 3/4 bedrooms and the price differential is tiny. And the liquidity is terrible.

 

 

[PeanutButter]

1 hour ago, spyguy said:

Just looking at the house piccies on the listings.

You can spot a probate a mile off.

'No chain ....' piccies full of shower rails and those indestructible furniture OAPs buy.

If you see a lounge with several single chairs and no sofa, also a giveaway. 

[macca13]

2 hours ago, Mrs Bear said:

Two Ds you didn't mention are Dementia and Decrepitude - the need to sell for care home fees.  

Twice in this family - my mother and an aunt. 

Does anyone know the £75’000 rule? 

A friend of mine got some lawyer and they dug up a rule introduced under the last Labour government that said you only have to pay the first £75’000 of care hone fees! 

The family sold the mother’s house, put £150’000 in a bank account for her care home, plus pension every month.. 

They divided the remainder of the money between the grandchildren, when the money runout the council went after the grandkids.. 

The council not only lost, but were forced to payback any money over £75’000 to the family and court costs, and additional monthly fee spanning the time spent by the mother in the home.. 

This was a 4 year court case and the council settled out of court.. 

[spyguy]

8 minutes ago, PeanutButter said:

If you see a lounge with several single chairs and no sofa, also a giveaway. 

Oh the best ones are a greasy old lady shape on the lounge floor.

And thats not a joke.

 

[PeanutButter]

4 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Oh the best ones are a greasy old lady shape on the lounge floor.

And thats not a joke.

 

this is why it's best to have a few cats or dogs - they clean that mess right up

[Kosmin]

53 minutes ago, jimmy2x3 said:

so you see this is the biggest thing to crash the market, the very fact that there are very few young buyers. no young buyers means no market at all. means prices will definetly crash and crash fast as the population death bubble increases. 

I can't remember the statistic, but I think it's something like the number of young people (under 30? 35?) has halved roughly in 15 years. Transaction volumes are low, but they aren't yet low enough.

 

8 minutes ago, spyguy said:

- Most people under 40 are little to no equity. Most appear to be buying HTB, so will hve zilch equity at all.

This will certainly be true of a lot, but there must be a substantial proportion of under 40s who bought before HTB. These people will probably have a fair amount of equity.

A lot of those who have used HTB will struggle. That could be a big factor coming up soon, but will it be as significant as those on IO with no means of repayment and BTLers being forced out?

[spyguy]

52 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

I can't remember the statistic, but I think it's something like the number of young people (under 30? 35?) has halved roughly in 15 years. Transaction volumes are low, but they aren't yet low enough.

 

This will certainly be true of a lot, but there must be a substantial proportion of under 40s who bought before HTB. These people will probably have a fair amount of equity.

A lot of those who have used HTB will struggle. That could be a big factor coming up soon, but will it be as significant as those on IO with no means of repayment and BTLers being forced out?

No.

40yo of 2018 would have been 24yo in 2002, typically (from a home buyer in the South) just coming back from their year of after Uni.

In the North the most common house-related saying i hear is 'Oh xxx cannot sell their house'

 

[Shrink Proof]

1 hour ago, spyguy said:

I see it in Scabby - go beyond 3/4 bedrooms and the price differential is tiny. And the liquidity is terrible.

Here's a good example. 5 bedrooms, asking price just shy of half a million quid. But in Scarborough the average wage is just £21,258 a year - over £3,000 less that the North Yorkshire average and £7,000 below the national average.

So it's still unsold after four years...

Edited December 3, 2018 by Shrink Proof

[Tes Tickle]

1 hour ago, spyguy said:

Oh the best ones are a greasy old lady shape on the lounge floor.

And thats not a joke.

 

I rented a house that it turned out the newbie BTLers had inherited from a relative who'd died there.  I should have seen the signs when I viewed, it all had new cheapo carpet but the downstairs back room had a plug-in air freshener with an overpowering sweet smell.  I found when living there that there was an indescribable manky off-meaty/fishy smell in there that I could never get rid of.  I guess they'd pickled into the floorboards, this was an uncle, not a parent, so possibly wasn't visited very often.  Yuck.

[Kosmin]

8 minutes ago, spyguy said:

No.

40yo of 2018 would have been 24yo in 2002, typically (from a home buyer in the South) just coming back from their year of after Uni.

Yes. There are more years between 2002 and 2013 than there are between 2013 and 2018. There will be a lot more 35 year olds buying in 2013 than 24 year olds buying in 2002, and there will be quite a few buying in their late 20s or early 30s in late 2000s/early 2010s. The proportion of people that age who bought compared to previous generations is lower, but those who did will have built a lot of equity.

9 minutes ago, spyguy said:

In the North the most common house-related saying i hear is 'Oh xxx cannot sell their house'

Are people saying that about poor areas? I'm not sure how relevant that is the UK housing market? Who cares if someone can't sell a house for £50,000? Who cares if the real price is £25,000? These places are detached from the rest of the country.

Or are they saying that about more expensive places? If so, this is far from unique to the North. There's a similar phrase you hear more in the south: "They're waiting for the right buyer."

[No One]

3 hours ago, jimmy2x3 said:

i think you are all missing the one major reason. 

this beast has been going for 20 years  now, older people only buy property if they have a property to sell. 50+ dont jump on the property ladder first rung often. by that time if they have not bought they have managed to aquire a decent council or association house. and they think, why give that up now so i need to fix a roof, pay a mortgage, repair a bathroom and equip with all the equipment mentioned above in later years. so these people stay put and accept that this is it for them. and they are probably happier for it as well, no mortgage worries and the council will not chuck you out. 

 

which brings me onto the main point. its young people that buy houses, not old people. they bring their money into the market. but because of 20 years of hpi they have not bought or entered the market and will mostly now just become they older people that will never buy. 

 

so you see this is the biggest thing to crash the market, the very fact that there are very few young buyers. no young buyers means no market at all. means prices will definetly crash and crash fast as the population death bubble increases. 

If Bxit can dampen immigration then it will be an almighty crash

[Locke]

5 hours ago, Tes Tickle said:

we'll be ready for next year's batch of places with 1980s decor and handrails in the bathroom.

 

4 hours ago, spyguy said:

'No chain ....' piccies full of shower rails and those indestructible furniture OAPs buy.

 

2 hours ago, spyguy said:

Oh the best ones are a greasy old lady shape on the lounge floor.

 

2 hours ago, PeanutButter said:

this is why it's best to have a few cats or dogs - they clean that mess right up

I'm laughing so hard you f###errs

[spyguy]

2 hours ago, Kosmin said:

Yes. There are more years between 2002 and 2013 than there are between 2013 and 2018. There will be a lot more 35 year olds buying in 2013 than 24 year olds buying in 2002, and there will be quite a few buying in their late 20s or early 30s in late 2000s/early 2010s. The proportion of people that age who bought compared to previous generations is lower, but those who did will have built a lot of equity.

Are people saying that about poor areas? I'm not sure how relevant that is the UK housing market? Who cares if someone can't sell a house for £50,000? Who cares if the real price is £25,000? These places are detached from the rest of the country.

Or are they saying that about more expensive places? If so, this is far from unique to the North. There's a similar phrase you hear more in the south: "They're waiting for the right buyer."

No.

This is coastal area with relative lot of interest moving there.

The issue is that there is no money at the bottom of the chain.

*THE* find of of the last couple of months has been:

https://www.home.co.uk/

Put aside its clunky interface, home.co.uk consoldiates all the sales and letting listing, across all the sites.

Its much better than rightmove. It also actively monitors and checks changes a la propertybee.

Anyhow, you can also look at asking prices in an area.

Then look at getting prices.

The difference is prices is stark - people are listing houses 250-300k. Stuff is selling 150-200.

 

 

 

 

[nightowl]

7 hours ago, Kosmin said:

I can't remember the statistic, but I think it's something like the number of young people (under 30? 35?) has halved roughly in 15 years. Transaction volumes are low, but they aren't yet low enough. 

 

I think the demographic trough is around early forties now, but there's a peak around mid twenties.  This will have some affect on the market but I'm not sure it will be a large contributor of any crash.

On the subject of death driving sales, of the three Ds is the one where many (not all, but many) people aren't always under any pressure to sell and benefit from being chain free .

[localhero1983]

12 hours ago, Sausage said:

Folks often say house prices can't fall as too much demand, not enough supply, low IRs. The 3 Ds don't care about those factors... Last winter saw a rise in excess deaths (lovely phrase!). Ageing population should accelerate this.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-02/britains-excess-winter-deaths-soar-highest-over-40-years

Personally I think there's a 4th ? "desire for debt". In a falling market people get nervous and risk averse.

Debt is my biggest interest these days, and has been for a while, I personally don't have a penny of it. Not that I am totally against borrowing, but in this day and age it has become The greatest evil. Debt issues are also up for abuse alongside mental health, which is another big interest of mine, and I have a great example of a media story today that may or may not make my point for me, I won't paste just in case it is hurtful to the person who is in debt and has mental health issues.

But it does concern me that we are talking about 100,00's of people each year attempting suicide over debt and some big names fighting their corner, I can see a few amnesties heading the way for those with massive mortgages and that bothers me. I have stayed away recently from buying poor value housing using some debt and have had to show strong mental resolve in doing so, as have many others. If people are going to start getting rewarded for making a mess of their finances, then this is going to bother me.

 

P.S the article I am on about is on the biggest web news site, not hard to find