Freki Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 1 minute ago, crazypabs said: Knowing NW they will probably have some kind of seasonal adjustment or exclude some type of transaction to make the historical number massage themselves into a yoy positive. eyes roll! Actually the report shows nominal value up by ~£600 but a seasonally adjusted of -.2% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 3 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said: Nay...small falls until the canadian dummy clears off next year, then the real FIRE-WORKS starts! I think we will see a WORST CRASH than that of 1990...BRING IT ON! Count is that you? Or your twin? ??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spiker Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 What are the London YoY figures? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doner Kebab Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 21 minutes ago, ftb_fml said: Keep the faith and ride the ripple. There's lots of regional variation as peak growth continues to travel out from the SE; leaving a vacuum of falling prices behind it; so national price falls should accelerate as this continues. Yep. Mania phase seemed to stop early summer in the south east, I have noticed Bristol and York follow suit over the last few months. In my searches just Scotland now still in the mania phase and I reckon they will get theirs by the end of summer. Fingers crossed anyway. Then it will/could be stagnation or more hopefully a black swan attack and serious carnage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanAffordWontPay Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 Last four months is -0.7. Hopefully we will see negative numbers for the remainder of the summer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow_Reduced_Sticker Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 13 minutes ago, The Crow said: Count is that you? Or your twin? ??? NO...i'm his cousin vinny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anonlymouse Posted May 31, 2018 Author Share Posted May 31, 2018 13 minutes ago, spiker said: What are the London YoY figures? Q2 Report (which breaks down regional performances) is out in June. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanAffordWontPay Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 28 minutes ago, spiker said: What are the London YoY figures? I just took that from the Land Registry HPI data. -3.10 from August onwards. The incoming data should be very interesting! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spiker Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 2 minutes ago, CanAffordWontPay said: I just took that from the Land Registry HPI data. -3.10 from August onwards. The incoming data should be very interesting! Once we get through July, that 1.7 drops off, will make much better reading Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FabulousSophie Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 I have noticed on other comments boards that as soon as someone starts saying house prices are now falling month on month, the property bulls (or vested interests) just extend the timeframe. When year on year prices actually go negative, I expect they will argue that prices are still rising because the 5 year on 5 year figures are positive. Some will no doubt try to do it all the way to century on century figures ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bland Unsight Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 44 minutes ago, crazypabs said: Knowing NW they will probably have some kind of seasonal adjustment or exclude some type of transaction to make the historical number massage themselves into a yoy positive. eyes roll! No sign of that between 1992 and 2018. If you compound the monthly rates it gives you the year-on-year rate. They publish the spreadsheet so you can check yourself if you wish (link). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmyblueeyes Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 Sad face Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gigantic Purple Slug Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 Don't see why they would fiddle the numbers anyway, because bad numbers can be used to call for government intervention. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 1 hour ago, The Crow said: Count is that you? Or your twin? ??? No, it's not me, it's my cousin Vinny. He's a good guy, mental tho. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bland Unsight Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 Just digging into the London data from the Nationwide from the previous peak (Q4 2007) to the latest data (Q1 2018), source is the spreadsheet here: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 9 minutes ago, jimmyblueeyes said: Sad face PMSL. I've tweeted that one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 1 hour ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said: Nay...small falls until the canadian dummy clears off next year, then the real FIRE-WORKS starts! I think we will see a WORST CRASH than that of 1990...BRING IT ON! I like your style Vinny. It's teetering now. He only needs to keep it going 9 months or so till he's got one foot out the door. Will he. Will he **** Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parkwell Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 1 hour ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said: BE more interesting next month when that 1% figure drops out the yoy. Indeed. I see that the last two significant upticks were Jun-17 1.1% and Jan-18 0.8%. If the current malaise continues the NW figures could look woeful very nice by Feb-19. Hopefully sooner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parkwell Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 1 hour ago, CanAffordWontPay said: Last four months is -0.7. Hopefully we will see negative numbers for the remainder of the summer. My kind of spring bounce. Will someone please escort the housing market to the back yard and shoot it in the head. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 1 minute ago, Parkwell said: My kind of spring bounce. Will someone please escort the housing market to the back yard and shoot it in the head. I think it's already flatlined... Save the bullet for anyone who refuses to raise interest rates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 Just returned home from a job and put the BBC new channel on to see a report about the Nationwide house price data. Ohh he did sound disappointed as he announced they were expecting a small rise. Then he went onto say they had already had three falls this year, you could nearly hear his voice breaking. Seriously, it's ingrained even though they might not have any idea they are imposing their personal frustrations on what should be unbiased news reporting onto us. The BBC are never going to properly do a story on the serious pain that HPI is causing millions of people, they never will have bad figures announced where there are 10,000's of smiley faces who are over the moon and wanting more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Skepticus Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 5/30 houses in my immediate vicinity (SW London) now having 'significant' building works done. 1 rebuild, 2 part rebuilds, rest loft conversions/ extensions....no-one can sell at these insane prices lol....so MEW, and lock themselves in at a higher price. It's just like doubling-down on poker, when you are bluffing...or even blind. This will end worse than most even anticipate on this forum! imo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oliver Sutton Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 4 hours ago, jimmyblueeyes said: Sad face Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benson55 Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 A torrent starts off as a drip drip drip, like -0.2% then suddenly one month its -2%, then -5% and then thats it the correction starts. having been through several booms and busts I can see the same old pattern showing its head, the figures may be bigger but the way it happens is always the same. This time could be a HUGE drop, so rent until it happens and then get what ya want to retire into. Its dog eat dog in the property world. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kurt Barlow Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 10 hours ago, oatbake said: Nationwide have really been pushing their BTL products lately. Rates are as low as 1.49%, or a massive 0.99% premium over the base rate! It does make you wonder whether they even look at their own statistics when they're considering the wisdom of these ridiculously low rates...It wouldn't take much for many of these BTL loans to turn bad. You could even argue that with S24 etc the writing is already on the wall! I went in to NW a few weeks back on Mrs B's bidding. What sort of deposit - 250- 300K Mortgage requirements - 250-300K Combined Income - 100K Result - ineligible because we haven't been resident for 2 years (although I'm a Brit Citizen and was born here) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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