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anonlymouse

Nationwide May 2018: -0.2% MoM, +2.4% YoY

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“The property type which has become much less prevalent is bungalows, which now make up 8.6% of the stock, down from 10.7% in 1996. This may be unexpected, given demographic trends and the popularity of this type of property amongst older people.

Why are they surprised about this when land values have quadrupled (?) since 1996?

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8 minutes ago, Smiley George said:

It's like a slow death....not sure how much more of this i can take 😡

I am with you as I am sure others are, I am hoping the housing market right now is on it's tip toes on the edge of a cliff with uncontrolled forces prodding it with swords, imagine the scene in the film 300 where they force the Persians over the cliff🙂🙂

I have heard a lot of talking from even Tories recently about relaxing immigration even more than it is already, the number one enemy of HPC in my opinion. Even that Ruth Davidson is wanting that which has now 100% ruled her out as far as I am concerned as a future PM. Seriously, it's like this country is hell bent on a far right uprising, I find it shocking that they have no idea of the anger in the real life working streets in the UK.

I am as organised as they come bordering on OCD, I plan and rarely get caught out, I hate mess and confusion and dis organised people and life. But that is now how I want the UK to go, it is the only way it can go now in order to rectify the mess the politicians have made who have tied themselves in knots, they don't even know what they are anymore, they placate everyone while doing nothing. What we need now is mayhem which is against my natural instincts, throw everything in the air and start again.

Years of -0.2% monthly falls will not cut it with me

 

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6 minutes ago, frederico said:

All seems to be a bit slow to me, maybe that's the plan.

I've come to believe that a glacial ten year bear market of real terms falls is more likely than a crash. Prob not what many want to hear, but it's the luck of the generation you're born into. 

Edited by PropertyMania

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Nationwide have really been pushing their BTL products lately. Rates are as low as 1.49%, or a massive 0.99% premium over the base rate!

It does make you wonder whether they even look at their own statistics when they're considering the wisdom of these ridiculously low rates...It wouldn't take much for many of these BTL loans to turn bad. You could even argue that with S24 etc the writing is already on the wall!

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Forgot to say... 

BTL makes little sense without capital appreciation in a lot of cases.  You only have to glance at the average BTL forum, or look at the massive 3/4% yields on offer to see that this is the case. 

As prices stall, or fail to rise, BTL becomes less attractive. The fact that BTL becomes less attractive removes some of the demand, which in turn, impacts on prices, which impacts on demand etc. A vicious circle. 

With something like 6 million BTL "properties" out there, there is really only one way this can play out, and it won't be pretty for BTLers...

Edited by oatbake

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33 minutes ago, FabulousSophie said:

At 0.1% or 0.2% monthly falls, will it take as long as another couple of years to go negative, year on year?

What you are saying is mathematically impossible. Since it is over a 12M rolling period of time. If each months are negative then it is impossible to have a YoY positive

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33 minutes ago, FabulousSophie said:

At 0.1% or 0.2% monthly falls, will it take as long as another couple of years to go negative, year on year?

Love the idea that with a run of monthly falls it could ever take more that a year for the index to go year on year negative. 12 months of 0.1% only takes you down by 1.206%, but obviously, it does take you down. I'll be back with the correct answer for the current NW stats after some coffee.

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1 hour ago, PropertyMania said:

I've come to believe that a glacial ten year bear market of real terms falls is more likely than a crash. Prob not what many want to hear, but it's the luck of the generation you're born into. 

That is their plan which looks like its ticking through the gears in my area.

BTL tax changes and second property taxes freeing up the lower end of the market.

Second home and stamp duty changes along with ated and money laundering changes at the top end.

Looking better for discounts at the lower end and the high end now.  I am not saying its time to buy or nothing less that silly prices .... but they are soft and there is stuff for sale.

Only now some months later are the family houses middle 250-500 (for here...10-20x average salaries...for the middle 😮) starting to stall.  There is not much inventory for sale and its still selling at silly prices.

My theory is that its 2 folks on 20-30k x 5 + flat equity + mum and dad to get you to 350-450 (or HTB).  That bank of mum and dad is taking the money out of their house so it needs falling valuations from the bank > equity withdrawl which looks like its starting to happen....with a lag as valuations catch up with sales prices.

Problem is with slow grinding falls things are either rising (by now pay more or miss out) or they are falling (wait = saving money).




 

Edited by Fromage Frais

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Keep the faith and ride the ripple. There's lots of regional variation as peak growth continues to travel out from the SE; leaving a vacuum of falling prices behind it; so national price falls should accelerate as this continues.

The market's slowing nicely and there are plenty of potential black swans on the horizon (many BTL scumbags finally realising they're cooked, the looming recession, another banking crisis).

It's increasingly vulnerable now, all we need is for something to tip it over the edge and really get the party started :D

Also - note that June last year posted a significant +1% MoM - so unless we see a similarly significant bounce back next month, that'll hammer the YoY figure nicely.

Edited by ftb_fml

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1 hour ago, Smiley George said:

It's like a slow death....not sure how much more of this i can take 😡

Death by a thousand house price cuts?

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1 minute ago, ftb_fml said:

Keep the faith and ride the ripple. There's lots of regional variation as peak growth continues to travel out from the SE; leaving a vacuum of falling prices behind it; so national price falls should accelerate as this happens. The market's slowing nicely and there are plenty of potential black swans on the horizon (many BTL scumbags finally realising they're cooked, the looming recession, another banking crisis).

It's increasingly vulnerable now, all we need is for something to tip it over the edge and really get the party started :D

I just want to echo this comment. Keep the faith everybody, the market is correcting and the price reductions are coming through. Every day there are between 2-3k price reductions on Rightmove and although this isn't a great indicator, it gives me (and I hope others too) hope that things are going in the right direction.

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Apologies if this analogy has been used hundreds of times before but I liken this situation to throwing a ball in the air. At the point it leaves your hand, A, it rises until it reaches the full height of its trajectory, point B, whereupon it starts to fall. We are at point C where the ball has only fallen a little from its zenith.

No one would say the ball is rising simply because it still happens to be higher than point A at this moment.

Anyhow. It's a monthly fall. I'll take that.

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7 minutes ago, ftb_fml said:

Keep the faith and ride the ripple.

That conjours up the image of a shockwave emanating from a bomb, flattening everything in its path. With "everything" being house prices and BTLers it's an image I can get behind.

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56 minutes ago, FabulousSophie said:

At 0.1% or 0.2% monthly falls, will it take as long as another couple of years to go negative, year on year?

If 0.1% falls persist the year-on-year index is negative by November (2018, obvs, because logic). If 0.2% falls persist then it's October, so your guesstimate of "a couple of years" was a little off the money.

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31 minutes ago, Freki said:

What you are saying is mathematically impossible. Since it is over a 12M rolling period of time. If each months are negative then it is impossible to have a YoY positive

Knowing NW they will probably have some kind of seasonal adjustment or exclude some type of transaction to make the historical number massage themselves into a yoy positive. eyes roll!

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1 hour ago, FabulousSophie said:

At 0.1% or 0.2% monthly falls, will it take as long as another couple of years to go negative, year on year?

Nay...small falls until the canadian dummy clears off next year, then the real FIRE-WORKS starts! :lol:

I think we will see a WORST CRASH :o than that of 1990...BRING IT ON!

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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