TulipsFromThreadneedle Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 6 minutes ago, stuckin2up2down said: Feck 2010 prices, I decided not to buy in 2005 in east london as they seemed out of control I opted out of 2001-2007 prices .. then 2009-2013 dip, though was about to buy early 2014 until Gidiot and Carney decided HPI of 10% overnight was in order. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuckin2up2down Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, TulipsFromThreadneedle said: I opted out of 2001-2007 prices .. then 2009-2013 dip, though was about to buy early 2014 until Gidiot and Carney decided HPI of 10% overnight was in order. Any sane person would have done. It now looks like a lottery type windfall you miss out on if you aren't feckless. I did buy in the dip outside of london as I gave up on a rigged game and opted out of ever paying income tax again in the current system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ftb_fml Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 1 hour ago, Conquistador said: Just posted borough data on Prime Central London crashing thread: inner core meltdown with some outer boroughs continuing to rise. Bearish boroughs: City of London / Jul 2016 / -13.8% from peak (-20.7% annualised) Islington / Aug 2016 / -9.4% (-16.1%) Tower Hamlets / Oct 2016 / -7.0% (-16.8%) Southwark / Sep 2016 / -5.8% (-11.6%) Brent / Oct 2016 / -5.1% (-12.2%) Wow.. -20.7% annually in central London - while falling from disgustingly over-inflated prices and obviously very localised, if that's not a crash I don't know what is. As usual the capital has seen the fastest, highest growth and has now stalled - falling in spectacular fashion in a trend that will no doubt ripple out to the rest of the country over time. Â While hope is a dangerous thing when all the VI's are against you,I'm starting to think we could be on the cusp of something significant.. Nationwide and Halifax have consistently shown stagnation / falls in prices for the last few months and the LR now seems to be catching up (although admittedly showed +0.8 and +0.6% over the previous two months). CPI is up (no good for those of us with cash savings but great from the perspective of available funds to keep fuelling the deposits of others), consumer spending is down and it looks like the music might be about to stop with respect to ridiculous unsustainable loans on certain areas (automotive) which will further depress the economy. The Pound is weak (so hopefully more QE is unlikely), IRs remain low (and hence can hardly go any lower), the government seem happy to put the boot into BTL and public /MSM sentiment seems to be turning against BTL and acknowledging a market correction. My only concern now it Tory-ramping if (when) they get in again next month.. although I hope they have limited room for maneuver and will hopefully see the need to appease a changing voter demographic and move away from pandering to the self-entitlement-drenched Express and Mail reading boomers. A few more interesting snippets from the LR data: - Sales volumes in England fell YoY by 19.0 and 16.7% in December and January respectively. - Sales volumes in London fell YoY by 31.3 and 26.3% in December and January respectively. - In March the price of new builds fell 7%(!) for England and 8.5% for London compared to the previous month. Â Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cosmic Apple Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 Random pocket of hope up north, Calderdale -2.3% YoY Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spyguy Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 26 minutes ago, Northern Welsh Midlander said: Random pocket of hope up north, Calderdale -2.3% YoY Thatll be all those wimmin losing their jobs as social workers in Hebden, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cosmic Apple Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 (edited) 5 minutes ago, spyguy said: Thatll be all those wimmin losing their jobs as social workers in Hebden, I doubt Hebden is down, that's its own little pocket of overpriced moss covered crap. Said 'wimmin' are also, generally, moss covered! Edited May 16, 2017 by Northern Welsh Midlander Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldbug9999 Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 The interesting thing is that the more the transactions volume drop, the bigger the potential impact of a BTL sell-off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 (edited) 12 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said: The interesting thing is that the more the transactions volume drop, the bigger the potential impact of a BTL sell-off. Are people still thinking there will be a BTL sell off ? There wont be. There will be a lot of repossessions and a bank sell off tho. The chance to sell was there, it was telegraphed from a mile away yet many saw this "return to normal" as the time to pile back in. #Gotcha The collapse has been delayed somewhat by the need to recapitalise the banks, but maybe that time really is here    Edited May 16, 2017 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stop_the_craziness Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 1 hour ago, Maynardgravy said: As has been posted many times before - x% rise is not the same as x% falls. I suddenly feel very thick - can someone explain this one for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maynardgravy Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 Just now, stop_the_craziness said: I suddenly feel very thick - can someone explain this one for me. 100k house increases 50% = 150k house. 150k house decreases by 50% = 75k house Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crooksook Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 Google trends for the UK for 'house prices falling' show a strong surge in people searching in May. Higher than the 2007 peak... https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=GB-ENG&q=house prices falling Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darkmarket Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 34 minutes ago, crooksook said: Google trends for the UK for 'house prices falling' show a strong surge in people searching in May. Higher than the 2007 peak... Good spot, should keep an eye on that more often. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 We're all happy with a 0.6% drop...imagine how happy the Londoners have been with their 20% yoy untaxed unearned gains ?  #Criminal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 1 hour ago, stop_the_craziness said: I suddenly feel very thick - can someone explain this one for me. Dont worry, we'll save you from buying a BTL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASBEAR Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 1 hour ago, crooksook said: Google trends for the UK for 'house prices falling' show a strong surge in people searching in May. Higher than the 2007 peak... https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=GB-ENG&q=house prices falling Dunno why mine looks different. What's the options you gave for that?  Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolfie84 Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 20 minutes ago, ASBEAR said: Dunno why mine looks different. What's the options you gave for that?  The first one was filtered down to searches from England (I think).  Yours looks to be worldwide?  Are there any (easy to use/process) sources showing the average length of time since previous sale within Land Registry data?  So, for all sales in March 2017, what was the average previous sale date.  And is this a shorter or longer time frame from previous months/years.  I'm not sure what it will show, but think it could be interesting! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenDevil Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 2 hours ago, crooksook said: Google trends for the UK for 'house prices falling' show a strong surge in people searching in May. Higher than the 2007 peak... https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=GB-ENG&q=house prices falling Perhaps its time for Property Snake to get resurrected. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrtickle Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 nice antedote to the BBC in this article: https://www.digitallook.com/news/news-and-announcements--/land-registry-confirms-uk-house-prices-falling--2673416.html Quote Land Registry confirms UK house prices falling UK house prices are falling, official data confirmed on Tuesday, and are likely to continue doing as the housing market is hit by a softening consumer environment and sterling volatility that erodes the appeal for overseas investors. House prices dropped 0.6% month on month in March, the Land Registry revealed, with prices in March still up 4.1% over the last year. The annual rate was down from 5.6% in February and below the consensus forecast of 5.3%. An average price of a UK property was £215,848 in March, falling from £217,502 a month before. New build home prices plunged by 6.4%, the Land Registry estimated, PLUNGED!!!  Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bland Unsight Posted May 16, 2017 Share Posted May 16, 2017 10 hours ago, ASBEAR said: I've updated http://hpc.soboru.co.uk/ to grab the new Land Registry data. London's annual change is just about to back to 2011. Sales volume has been already as low as 2011. Sold price is falling. I can't wait to see the next month's graph.  Possibly worth flagging that the apparent dip in transaction volumes in the most recent months is usually just an artefact. Neal Hudson knows his onions so his "adjustment for lag in sales registration" is going to be legit. You need a lot of rear view mirror to see a trend in transaction volumes. I'd argue that by the time you could see the trend in transaction volumes that might be expected to accompany a dip in prices, you'll already be able to see the price falls 'live' in asking prices and more HPI indices which are more timely than the Land Registry transaction volumes.  Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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