Times front page - Housing market slumps

[Arpeggio]

23 minutes ago, macca13 said:

The boom won't stop till the buyers stop.. 

there is so much coming this year I would not want to buy anything till 2018 at the earliest.. Brexit, Frexit, ITexit, Dexit.. Trump.. S24, Basil 3, council tax up, business rates up, benafits down, gas and electric up 9%, public, government debt and pension defacit soaring.. fuel prices up, food and cloths prices up..  the world is going to s##t at warp speed.. I would chuck ur landlord a few more months rent.. I hate landlords but i don't know if I would want to be getting a mortgage right at this moment .. too much uncertainty 

I don't mind buying a house just to live in if it doesn't go up above inflation as part of a market that doesn't. I make my money from working and some exporting and would love the right environment to make all that worthwhile. I agree with welfare for those out of work and genuinely need it but im not interested in carrying parasite landlords, hpi fanatics, land bankers and other forms of economic rent seekers.

I tend to think that if there's a crash there will be as many, if not more buyers with the intention of making profit later on. At least with things like Basel 3 there will be some kind of stopper to it.

[frederico]

3 hours ago, btd1981 said:

In not sure this is true, as much as I want it to be. In areas of high demand, can't 'ever' increasing prices be supported by wealthier people lowering their expectations? ie. Couples that traditionally would have been able to buy a 2+ bedroom starter home now settling for a flat instead, at what should be 2+ bedroom house prices?

Areas of high demand and unlimited wage rises

[frederico]

4 hours ago, btd1981 said:

 

Edited February 19, 2017 by frederico
Double post

[frederico]

30 minutes ago, Arpeggio said:

I don't mind buying a house just to live in if it doesn't go up above inflation as part of a market that doesn't. I make my money from working and some exporting and would love the right environment to make all that worthwhile. I agree with welfare for those out of work and genuinely need it but im not interested in carrying parasite landlords, hpi fanatics, land bankers and other forms of economic rent seekers.

I tend to think that if there's a crash there will be as many, if not more buyers with the intention of making profit later on. At least with things like Basel 3 there will be some kind of stopper to it.

I bought my first house in 1987, always just bought to live in and always ended up with stacks more equity when I sold. I did have one year in between houses mind, and a few years with very little movement in prices.

Prices always go up due to relaxed lending limits, but they have exhausted all means to lend more money. 

So, prices only drop with forced sellers, in the old days it was good old unemployment and repossessions. That's gone out of fashion, but the BTL brigade are about to suffer a whole heap of pain and will lead the way. Lots of new builds are going up as well.

If you want somewhere cheap, look to those estates that were built to sell to BTLers.

London is already going, mainly I suspect due to speculators legging it. Those who delay are going to be very disappointed.

 

[Venger]

2 hours ago, macca13 said:

 Blair had principles.. ?

Lardlord owning 15+ properties who signed the order for human rights and his wife is a human rights lawyer.. bet he made her a fortune..

mrs Blair was also in charge of the S24 court case, she claimed S24 would make tenants poorer as their rent would go up to pay the extra tax,

 

   Tell it like it is.

[Arpeggio]

1 minute ago, frederico said:

I bought my first house in 1987, always just bought to live in and always ended up with stacks more equity when I sold. I did have one year in between houses mind, and a few years with very little movement in prices.

Prices always go up due to relaxed lending limits, but they have exhausted all means to lend more money. 

So, prices only drop with forced sellers, in the old days it was good old unemployment and repossessions. That's gone out of fashion, but the BTL brigade are about to suffer a whole heap of pain and will lead the way. Lots of new builds are going up as well.

If you want somewhere cheap, look to those estates that were built to sell to BTLers.

London is already going, mainly I suspect due to speculators legging it. Those who delay are going to be very disappointed.

 

Thanks. I'd sell a.s.a.p if I where them. If prices were just inflation based then I wouldn't even need a mortgage. I'm guessing, like most people, you didn't benefit hugely financially knowing that the house you buy is as inflated as the one you sell.

 

[Venger]

9 hours ago, Greg Bowman said:

Good Post I agree not sure if there are enough £1 million house to make a difference did someone say there are only 13000 property transactions in this band a year

..values are found at the margin.

Presumably there were only low-volume transactions at the higher end of the market, as the values ballooned and ballooned in value each year.

You don't need that many sellers transacting at lower prices, to bring wider values down (for other owners), in my opinion.

[frederico]

1 minute ago, Arpeggio said:

Thanks. I'd sell a.s.a.p if I where them. If prices were just inflation based then I wouldn't even need a mortgage. I'm guessing, like most people, you didn't benefit hugely financially knowing that the house you buy is as inflated as the one you sell.

 

Indeed, makes no difference to me except I may have to sell to fund my kids houses, if prices drop enough they might be able to support themselves.

I did sell my first house at below apparent market value as I wanted to capture the most reliable buyers I could, worked a treat for me , rented a cheap place and put the equity in the bank as interest rates went through the roof.

None of this was through choice though I had to move in a rush. In hindsight it probably set me up nicely. But that's a long story.

[macca13]

2 hours ago, Dorkins said:

Who should young people vote for?

Politicians IF THEY LISTEN tend to say whatever they think will get them elected, the public need to voice their concerns over house prices and rent, then wait for a party to pick up on it and add it to their manifesto. No guarantee that it would achieve anything but at least you could call the scum bags on their promise.

[Dorkins]

1 minute ago, macca13 said:

Politicians IF THEY LISTEN tend to say whatever they think will get them elected, the public need to voice their concerns over house prices and rent, then wait for a party to pick up on it and add it to their manifesto. No guarantee that it would achieve anything but at least you could call the scum bags on their promise.

Politicians know exactly what younger people want: homeownership at a price they can afford on their wages. Still waiting to see it in a manifesto.

[macca13]

10 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

Politicians know exactly what younger people want: homeownership at a price they can afford on their wages. Still waiting to see it in a manifesto.

I look back at when I was young and all I wanted was enough money to go down the pub and have fun.. That's why I'm in this mess.. I never even thought about housing or politics.. But then as my wages grew with age I found house prices grew faster.. If only,, where was my crystal ball!

[Noallegiance]

I've written to two Tory MPs in the last 18 months.

Based upon the responses received, they are either 1) utterly clueless over what they're doing to an ever growing section of society and are living in their own (aptly named) bubble or 2) cannot legitimately be seen to agree with any of the sentiment of the likes of HPC for it will show, as and when things turn, that they knew all along. They can do nothing other than toe the party line.

The latest response I got was simply breathtaking in it's ignorance of the points I raised, the facts at hand and the responsibility of long term government and central bank policy.

[macca13]

30 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

I've written to two Tory MPs in the last 18 months.

Based upon the responses received, they are either 1) utterly clueless over what they're doing to an ever growing section of society and are living in their own (aptly named) bubble or 2) cannot legitimately be seen to agree with any of the sentiment of the likes of HPC for it will show, as and when things turn, that they knew all along. They can do nothing other than toe the party line.

The latest response I got was simply breathtaking in it's ignorance of the points I raised, the facts at hand and the responsibility of long term government and central bank policy.

We are always told that People at the top are the brightest and most valuable in our society and are worth their 6 million a year, take the Chief executive of British gas, he sits at the top of a company that sell gas and electric to people that need.. Gas and Electric.. I don't know how he does it, .. :-)

So why is it a surprise that MP's are totally and utterly incompetent.. Even Sajid Javid, owner of many houses (sa properties), ex Deutsche Bank Director.. sounds like the right man for the job, vested interest in housing and ex Director of a bank that is now almost bankrupt.. clearly a man that should be in charge of our country, greedy and incompetent. If he can bankrupt a bank and has absolutely no morals of course I want him steering the ship..................... ICEBERG!

[Ah-so]

7 minutes ago, macca13 said:

We are always told that People at the top are the brightest and most valuable in our society and are worth their 6 million a year, take the Chief executive of British gas, he sits at the top of a company that sell gas and electric to people that need.. Gas and Electric.. I don't know how he does it, .. :-)

So why is it a surprise that MP's are totally and utterly incompetent.. Even Sajid Javid, owner of many houses (sa properties), ex Deutsche Bank Director.. sounds like the right man for the job, vested interest in housing and ex Director of a bank that is now almost bankrupt.. clearly a man that should be in charge of our country, greedy and incompetent. If he can bankrupt a bank and has absolutely no morals of course I want him steering the ship..................... ICEBERG!

I think Sajid Javid just had the corporate title of Director, which in an investment bank is just part of middle management. Think equivalent of captain or major in the army. 

[shindigger]

Whatever he is, 2 years ago on BBC QT he said there was no housing bubble and kept a straight face.

[macca13]

4 minutes ago, shindigger said:

Whatever he is, 2 years ago on BBC QT he said there was no housing bubble and kept a straight face.

Botox

[billybong]

3 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

I've written to two Tory MPs in the last 18 months.

Based upon the responses received, they are either 1) utterly clueless over what they're doing to an ever growing section of society and are living in their own (aptly named) bubble or 2) cannot legitimately be seen to agree with any of the sentiment of the likes of HPC for it will show, as and when things turn, that they knew all along. They can do nothing other than toe the party line.

The latest response I got was simply breathtaking in it's ignorance of the points I raised, the facts at hand and the responsibility of long term government and central bank policy.

They are also experts at the fake pleading of ignorance and at fobbing off difficult questions using more fakery.

Edited February 20, 2017 by billybong

[macca13]

2 hours ago, billybong said:

They are also experts at the fake pleading of ignorance and at fobbing off difficult questions using more fakery.

They are trying to Lobby Shelter the charity to come to their rescue.. see below

""Shelter does not support landlords and in so doing does not support tenants, for without landlords there would be no tenants.

Start supporting landlords and work to repeal Section 24 before all the landlords are forced to increase rents beyond anything that a normal tenant can afford. Already I have been forced to increase my rents by 15% as a result of various government policies just to stand still, and this is before Section 24 bites. Gradually all my Housing Benefit tenants are leaving, forced out because they cannot afford the rent.

Remember no landlords, no tenants.""

 

http://blog.shelter.org.uk/2016/09/debate-around-buy-to-let-tax-changes-points-to-general-need-for-extra-safeguards-for-tenants/#comment-5971

 

YES no Landlords, just cheaper houses and more owner occupiers, you can go on the site attached and post replies to their messages without creating an account.. its great fun, see if you can get their heckles up!

[thecrashingisles]

On 17/02/2017 at 2:00 PM, Patient London FTB said:

It's all gone tits up.

[thisisthisitmaybe]

12 hours ago, Dorkins said:

Who should young people vote for?

Labour. Even if they hate Corbyn. Even if they hate Labour. 

IMO they should be undertaking various forms of public action. They are really screwed, and unless you start to act up, you will be ignored.

[nothernsoul]

Totally anecdotal, maybe I am just more hyperaware of this now, but I have never known so many acquaintances or their family members buying second properties. My boss and best mates dad both recently bought a flat each to rent out. Other mates girlfriend bought new house and kept other for rent. All of them have plenty of housing equity or own outright. Mates girlfriend used an inheritance and could have been mortgage free instead. All of these people are comfortably off. My only conclusion is this is a mixture of pure greed and a belief the only way to prosper in modern britain is to extract rent. Very clear that any money in britain, debt, inheritance, pension release is going to pour into property speculation until there is a very nasty shock. Its like living in feudal times.

[iamnumerate]

On 18/02/2017 at 2:53 PM, Dorkins said:

In general taxes are worn by both buyers and sellers. Higher price -> lower output and reduced surplus from trade to both buyer and seller. (P = price, Q = quantity).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deadweight_loss

Anecdotally, I live in an area with a very high house price to income ratio and the stock in this neighbourhood is mostly of the 'FTB stock' variety e.g. 2 bed terraces. Life goes on, young families grow and want/need more space. There is a ridiculous amount of loft conversion going on around us as people can't/won't pay for the next step up to a larger property so decide to try and muddle through with what they have. Yes, some of it is due to high prices in general but the high cost of stamp duty will also be encouraging this behaviour. It also discourages empty nesters from moving out of the bigger family homes as they perceive the SDLT bill to be throwing money down the drain.

HPC is like a chess game played out move by move by the various market actors. I would much rather have it be lightning chess than some dull drawn out affair where every move requires hours of contemplation. Stamp duty kills transactions, what we need are transactions and price discovery so that sellers can find out what the real price of their property is instead of clinging to delusional asking prices for 10+ months blaming a 'slow market' or 'Mexican standoff' or whatever other guff the property industry experts come up with.

Very true.  There is also a fairness attitude I don't mind paying more tax than someone else because I earn more, drive more, have a bigger house, drink more etc.  However why should I pay more tax because I have to move more.*

*In real life I probably don't have to move more and unless I emigrate or win the lottery I might never move house again - because I don't want to pay stamp duty.

[iamnumerate]

1 hour ago, thisisthisitmaybe said:

Labour. Even if they hate Corbyn. Even if they hate Labour. 

IMO they should be undertaking various forms of public action. They are really screwed, and unless you start to act up, you will be ignored.

Oh no he wants us to be like Venezuela with colder weather and more expensive petrol.

[Nabby81]

37 minutes ago, nothernsoul said:

Totally anecdotal, maybe I am just more hyperaware of this now, but I have never known so many acquaintances or their family members buying second properties. My boss and best mates dad both recently bought a flat each to rent out. Other mates girlfriend bought new house and kept other for rent. All of them have plenty of housing equity or own outright. Mates girlfriend used an inheritance and could have been mortgage free instead. All of these people are comfortably off. My only conclusion is this is a mixture of pure greed and a belief the only way to prosper in modern britain is to extract rent. Very clear that any money in britain, debt, inheritance, pension release is going to pour into property speculation until there is a very nasty shock. Its like living in feudal times.

3 people I work with all doing same thing , its greed pure and simply .One brought his house from council on RTB on cheap now wants to use the equity to buy another and admits he now couldn't afford to live there buying now..

I tried telling them the Gov White paper is specific that they want to end BTL and all the current changes ie stamp duty change are to reduce it ..don't want to listen.

 

I'd imagine that basically that the last 18 months of insane rises , especially in South East have left people with money in home to extract to go into BTL, ironically at the time the BTL landlords are getting out.

To add a friend was telling me recently his mum , just retired as a teacher one of her colleagues 68 just retired and ploughed some of her pension into a property to rent out ..Both of us completely mystified as to why someone close to 70 with a final salary teacher pension still feels need to go into BTL...

Edited February 20, 2017 by Nabby81

[29929BlackTuesday]

13 hours ago, frederico said:

 

but they have exhausted all means to lend more money. 

 

 

 

 

Morning frederico.

It would seem to be the case - but I do suspect they've got new ways to lend we've not dreamt of. I do think fear of the future prompts btl purchase or even just normal purchasing. Anything vaguely liveable is selling within a week here in Malvern. Up to say £220000. Anything in the 260+ range is sitting for months if not years. Many are bought, done up and put back on within 2months with a 25,000 mark up.

I may be wrong but I actually think we're on the verge of a mini-boom (once over this temporary worried patch). I sincerely hope not I should add.

I've got two chickens so I'm fine. Blacktuesday

Edited February 20, 2017 by 29929BlackTuesday
General stupidity