First-time buyers defy the doubters to drive house prices higher

[thewig]

On ‎20‎/‎02‎/‎2017 at 9:29 PM, A third of everything said:

We are FTB and since the end of HTB mortgage guarantee what we can borrow has dropped - AIP last summer was 15k more than one gotten last week. Deposit creeping up but have decided to limit ourselves to 10k less than we were looking for last year regardless and not ashamed to say I'm excited to see the amount of reductions and relists so far this year.

Viewed a house that went on last month guide price 325 - 350 and this month dropped 300 - 325 - as soon as it dropped we booked a viewing but when the vendors stood there announcing they would be mortgage free after this move (out to the sticks) it didn't make me want to pay top whack for a house where every single window was blown funnily enough. Lived there 8 years and didn't even bother to paper walls in one bedroom - no pride and no shame!

some DEBTjunkie mug'll offer them asking +5% to snap up a bargain then declare there were no FTBs in the running

 

Edited February 28, 2017 by thewig

[Little Frank]

On 2/14/2017 at 1:37 PM, TheCountOfNowhere said:

"

First-time buyers defy the doubters to drive house prices higher 

"

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/02/14/first-time-buyers-defy-doubters-drive-house-prices-higher/

 

Look at the graph in the article....here's the annotation:

 

 

Correlation isn't necessarily causation

2014 was when real wages started to rise again, along with rising employment.

Rising employment and real wage rises are drivers of rising house prices, which is exactly what happened. So no surprise there.

Similarly, falling growth in real wages due to current rising inflation is reducing the pace of house price growth into 2017. But this time still supported by strong (pretty much full) employment. Again, no surprises there.

If you want to 'blame' Carney and have him locked up I suggest you focus on his efforts to reduce unemployment from c. 10% down to less than 5% (if you think that's a criminal act)

[btd1981]

Well that's it gents, may as well throw in the towel. It's obvious this bubble is driven by credit and the numpty just opened the taps even more. 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Oh look, ity's that god awful man who wants to encourage everyone into debt so him and his ilk can profit

 

 

Ray Boulger, senior technical director at mortgage broker John Charcol, said the change means lenders will be able to offer about 10 per cent more borrowers a mortgage in excess of 4.5 times their income.

 

What a horrible/desperate f**king person that man must be.

[zugzwang]

27 minutes ago, btd1981 said:

Well that's it gents, may as well throw in the towel. It's obvious this bubble is driven by credit and the numpty just opened the taps even more. 

"No-one wants to see a house price crash."

Tory Housing Minister Gavin Barwell, 7th February 2017.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

13 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

"No-one wants to see a house price crash."

Tory Housing Minister Gavin Barwell, 7th February 2017.

Oddly...people were told house prices would fall if they voted for BrExit....people voted for BrExit.

Therefore, "THE MAJORITY wants to see a house price crash."

[sPinwheel]

1 minute ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Oddly...people were told house prices would fall if they voted for BrExit....people voted for BrExit.

Therefore, "THE MAJORITY wants to see a house price crash."

That was project fear. 

[Mr Banks]

6 minutes ago, btd1981 said:

Well that's it gents, may as well throw in the towel. It's obvious this bubble is driven by credit and the numpty just opened the taps even more. 

As I have always said it is a polictical game, basle 3, clause 24 are just window dressing if lending looks like it drops just pump more QE in, MMR a problem just use longer fixed rates to get around the problem. Now this technical change to the 4.5 times mortgage rule. It seems every day we hear about what may cause house prices to fall. I remember ye olde mmr days on here and how people were almost putting a peak on house prices for the day that came in ( 26 April 2014). Not saying that a crash cant happen but i don't think that it will be because first time buyers cannot afford it they will just be loaned more amd more money.

Since i first started reading this site in 2012 house prices in the area I live in (outer south east) have rocketed, around that time I abandoned buying a house which is now worth (because it has sold at the given price) twice what I was going to pay for it (it did indeed sell at that price). Most of my peers (left uni in 2008 or 2009) have now brought and believe property will only go up and currently they are being shown to be correct. They, the first time buyers see it as a political situation (even those who see it as wrong and an injustice to pay for housing financialization) and therefore want to align their interests with those they see with power. They seem to see it as aligning themselves having the same vested interest as those who hold power (homeowners are more likely to vote, lots of peer reviewed research here) and HPI is required to fund primary care in later life, proven parallels between rising house prices and consumer spending and Mark Carney and the BIS has mentioned house price falls as a risk to financial stability. They know and they will try to stay on the right poltical side.

As an aside if you look at the Black wednesday documentory (a very political event to try and stay in the ERM) the powers tha be are quite open about their concern for mortgage rates and house prices as a result of there actions. Young people can see the political way the wind blows in this country and will try to allign their interests with them so long as there is credit and finance available (think help to buy, bank of mum and day, mortgages that allow a loan as deposit (santander), bank that lends to uni students) there appears to be no problem getting this finance or at least enough of my cohort have enough to pay these and higher prices.

[LC1]

This country needs a bloody revolution, quick smart.

[zugzwang]

30 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Oddly...people were told house prices would fall if they voted for BrExit....people voted for BrExit.

Therefore, "THE MAJORITY wants to see a house price crash."

Too bad Fartwell didn't give the name of the corporate identity behind his micro-housing scheme: Barcelona Housing Systems.

The Chinese are fronting up the international capital (and steel) but the technology is all Spanish.

Here's a prototype they threw up in Quito, Ecuador (note the prominent Communist flag, which I assume the Tories will forego) to accompany the UN Habitat III conference on sustainable housing development - bolted to the ground with 2m long screws! That's right, there are no foundations!

"No concrete, no water, no waste."

Welcome to your new 70sq meter dream home, kids. First step on the ladder.

http://citiscope.org/story/2016/save-water-and-cement-quito-apartments-will-be-bolted-ground

Quote

Designed with the affordable-housing market in mind, Barcelona Housing Systems aims for the apartments to sell for 10 percent lower than the price of similar units made through traditional building methods.

The price is country specific. In Ecuador, the apartments would retail for US$890 per square meter, according to Bustamante. The company has signed agreements to build in Chile, Croatia, Spain and the U. K. In Chile, development is underway with 48 units of a 180-unit development already standing.

The Ecuador development is a joint project between Barcelona Housing Systems and the China National Building Material Company. Financing is supplied through the Barcelona Housing Company’s financing mechanism.

Edited February 28, 2017 by zugzwang

[nome]

2 hours ago, satch said:

Have no fear Carney is here and has fixed the problem ...... 'The Bank of England has tweaked an obscure rule which could make it easier for borrowers to get a mortgage of more than four-and-a-half times their annual income.The rule change applies immediately .... '

Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-4263602/Bank-England-make-EASIER-borrow-mortgage.html#ixzz4ZyhHFmJE
 

 

Some very peculiar activity with the comments on that particular article.... the vast majority of comments are opposed to it (the BoE measure) and initially they (the comments) were met with widespread approval with green arrows far outweighing red, but in the last couple of hours those same comments have received a deluge of red arrows and green arrows have almost completely stopped, definitely some form of manipulation going on with it.

Edited February 28, 2017 by nome

[TheCountOfNowhere]

33 minutes ago, sPinwheel said:

That was project fear. 

I know that and you know that,...but the people voting wanted cheaper housing

[drunkincharge]

5 hours ago, LC1 said:

Apropos nothing in particular but this thread in general, it occurs to me that the governments of the world made a pact with the devil (bankers to you and me) and have been letting them run amok. Look at what the Count points out about GS cronies in such worldwide positions of power, and so it is naive to think that we don't have governbankments. The thing I could never really get my head around is why have our (mis)leaders allowed this takeover? I wonder if it wasn't largely a secret pact about taxation - no political party can be seen to raise taxes, else they will be voted out pretty sharpish. But transfer tax collection over to the bankers via debt inflation, and Joe Public remains mystified about the reasons why he is poorer and then the banks duly hand over a share to the Exchequer.

Is that a nonsense paranoid idea, or could it be at least part of the explanation!? 

Yes but also, the welfare state grew well beyond the means of taxation in the 70's. The government needed to borrow hence Thatchers liberalisation of credit. The Government and the bankers have been in Cahoots ever since......Now there is no way their paths can be separated. I'm afraid its inflation all the way.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 minute ago, drunkincharge said:

Yes but also, the welfare state grew well beyond the means of taxation in the 70's. The government needed to borrow hence Thatchers liberalisation of credit. The Government and the bankers have been in Cahoots ever since......Now there is no way their paths can be separated. I'm afraid its inflation all the way.

More signs of inflation

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/feb/28/government-departments-told-to-outline-cuts-of-up-to-6-per-cent

 

 

[crashmonitor]

Edit.

Edited February 28, 2017 by crashmonitor

[thisisthisitmaybe]

4 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Oddly...people were told house prices would fall if they voted for BrExit....people voted for BrExit.

Therefore, "THE MAJORITY wants to see a house price crash."

I spoke to a number of Leave voters, who were retired, living in the south east, who normally voted tory, and had paid off their mortgages.

Many of them referred to insane house prices as the reason for their vote, thinking about their kids and even their grandkids. Obviously immigration was the number one factor (coupled with a general dislike of the EU), but House Price Inflation is a hot political potato. 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

16 minutes ago, thisisthisitmaybe said:

I spoke to a number of Leave voters, who were retired, living in the south east, who normally voted tory, and had paid off their mortgages.

Many of them referred to insane house prices as the reason for their vote, thinking about their kids and even their grandkids. Obviously immigration was the number one factor (coupled with a general dislike of the EU), but House Price Inflation is a hot political potato. 

My in laws are the same. No one wants the bubble...bar the corrupt, greedy and thick.

[thisisthisitmaybe]

3 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

My in laws are the same. No one wants the bubble...bar the corrupt, greedy and thick.

48 percent of the population, unfortunately. 

[AvoidDebt]

The final death throes of the ponzi? 

The bank of Granny and Grandad now helping first-timers on to housing ladder

MARCH 6, 2017 | MARC SHOFFMAN

 

Forget the Bank of Mum & Dad: first-time buyers are increasingly turning to grandparents for help on to the property ladder.

Research from Santander Mortgages found that 8% of first-time buyers now rely on the Bank of Gran and Grandad to help with a deposit, a four-fold increase compared with five years ago.

Of those currently looking to buy, 32% told the bank they would use a family loan to help with the deposit, up from the 13% of current home owners who asked for financial help from their families.

http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/grandparents-increasingly-funding-grandchildrens-deposit/

[thisisthisitmaybe]

I've just had the biggest indicator yet of a HPC.

My sister is looking at buying a house.

She is the unluckiest person I know, she last bought in 2006 at the top of the market, and was forced to sell through divorce (not her own thought) in 2012 just before prices surged once more.

Along with the other unluckiest person I know buying a London flat a few months back (which involves his dad taking out a personal loan), all the red flags are now flying.

The market WILL crash this year.

[iamnumerate]

On 28/02/2017 at 6:26 PM, thisisthisitmaybe said:

I spoke to a number of Leave voters, who were retired, living in the south east, who normally voted tory, and had paid off their mortgages.

Many of them referred to insane house prices as the reason for their vote, thinking about their kids and even their grandkids. Obviously immigration was the number one factor (coupled with a general dislike of the EU), but House Price Inflation is a hot political potato. 

I think my parents voted remain because they like having a house most can't afford.

[Si1]

24 minutes ago, thisisthisitmaybe said:

I've just had the biggest indicator yet of a HPC.

My sister is looking at buying a house.

She is the unluckiest person I know, she last bought in 2006 at the top of the market, and was forced to sell through divorce (not her own thought) in 2012 just before prices surged once more.

Along with the other unluckiest person I know buying a London flat a few months back (which involves his dad taking out a personal loan), all the red flags are now flying.

The market WILL crash this year.

My sister in law bought in 2006 and 2015. Lots of showing off about climbing the ladder etc. Back slapping etc

[thisisthisitmaybe]

1 minute ago, iamnumerate said:

I think my parents voted remain because they like having a house most can't afford.

That why a lot of Project Fear centred on a fall in house prices. In this respect, I hope they were right.

 

[Muddlehead]

4 hours ago, thisisthisitmaybe said:

I've just had the biggest indicator yet of a HPC.

My sister is looking at buying a house.

She is the unluckiest person I know, she last bought in 2006 at the top of the market, and was forced to sell through divorce (not her own thought) in 2012 just before prices surged once more.

Along with the other unluckiest person I know buying a London flat a few months back (which involves his dad taking out a personal loan), all the red flags are now flying.

The market WILL crash this year.

I think the question is whether there is a crash followed by a recovery (like the last ten years), or whether this is more like the crash to end all crashes.