Nationwide +0.8%

[Gribble]

+0.8%????? - just dont believe it. Seen 10% falls in Surrey asking prices last 4 months. Complete BS from vested interest 

[MrMonkey]

The Government and BoE can only keep the plates spinning for so long. A weakening economy, rise in IRs (remember, low rates were always meant to be a temporary blip), or tightening of credit would each have the power to bring things crashing down. Not to mention the changes to BTL about to occur. 

But most significantly, the recent news that home ownership figures have been overestimated. Where will the political will to print money to protect house prices come from when the majority are calling for cheaper prices?

 

[awaytogo]

20 hours ago, Gribble said:

+0.8%????? - just dont believe it. Seen 10% falls in Surrey asking prices last 4 months. Complete BS from vested interest 

+1

[Venger]

On 12/30/2016 at 4:34 PM, Grumpysod said:

Maybe I should, there is only so many years you can waste your life hoping while there is so many other good things in life to get on with or try. Not sure how healthy it is waiting and hoping for a HPC along with all the innocents caught up in that, wishing bad on others cannot be a good thing for ones soul.

Waste life on HPC side / renting.  Yeah you gave me all that 10 months ago and I came right back to you with pic of a fully pregnant girl beside me holding a sign about BTL/HPI Innocents.  We have lives on rented side.  Home ownership isn't 'meaning of life' at any madder price.  

Good luck with the landlording in France.  

HPC = "innocents harmed."  That's your view... HPC = awful.

Says the man who has owned since early 20s. Who upsized into the 90s crash (didn't give his money away to victims).  Recently gone to rented side banking loads £.  Has had close dealing with many BTLers (his own sister joined the BTLers and family in love with HPI.    

Yeah no innocents on renter-saver side at all.   Like a HPC only is wishing bad from your view, rather than hoping for opportunity for millions of others and future generations.

Ownership levels plunged for young people.  Older owners sat on fortunes of HPI who wouldn't be hurt in a HPC.  BTLers who made their own choices turning would-be owners into renters.   Innocents in a HPC hmmm.   A few younger buyers who may go into negative equity, that's all - in a HPC - and so many of them having bomad help to buy.

Get back to agreeing it a 'good thing' if vast number of people on planet earth were killed - really positive stuff from you.  Great solution.

1 hour ago, Grumpysod said:

Of course not, silly question, just like nobody else would want to or should ever be euthanized. Just saying the good of the earth could do without most of us, Over 90% of species were wiped out by a comet to give way for us, I am sure if the could they would not have volunteered either,

 

Edited December 31, 2016 by Venger

[thewig]

On Friday, December 30, 2016 at 6:35 AM, Venger said:

Real estate runs on money.  

If immigrants are bringing big money with them to buy/rent - some with choice of lots of other countries to go to - or earning it here through positively contributing to the economy, then so be it.  

If it's at growing cost to Gov/taxpayers, that's a negative to be paid in a world where credit agencies taking sharper looks at Government finances, and competition between countries to attract highest skilled productive workers.  (Even to attract big sectors away to relocate).

Detrimental?  Not sure what you mean but doesn't sound like a positive for house prices in such areas.

Real estate runs on DEBT actually. Very little money involved.

[Venger]

9 minutes ago, thewig said:

Real estate runs on DEBT actually. Very little money involved.

If so in part, then no one has ever forced anyone to take on the ever higher levels of debt to pay ever higher prices - to extremes - for house prices.

BTLers made their own choices.

Hoping for HPC is wishing bad on others and innocents according to some who have only really ever known homeownership for decades. 

Their HPI chasing/loving relatives (HPCers 'wasting life' and 'wishing harm' on 'innocents' with HPC) don't come before any one else in the market from my point of view - no matter how some want to human shield protect the HPIers/BTLers.   

On 2/28/2016 at 9:52 PM, Neverwhere said:

Weak as hell.

More people are already suffering, because of the current dislocation between house prices and wages, than will possibly suffer in a HPC.

People who own their homes outright won't suffer.

People who have borrowed sensibly in relation to their household incomes and savings buffers won't suffer.

The only people who might possibly suffer are those who have acted speculatively, whether by holding multiple properties or by borrowing unsustainably for their main residences in order to maximise their stake in the housing market.

This relatively small cohort who might possibly suffer are also the ones who are most likely to have been driving the bubble and causing the suffering of those who are, as a result, priced out and unable to own homes of their own without borrowing in a similarly reckless manner.

In so doing this relatively small cohort who might possibly suffer have ultimately caused this possibility themselves. Not only in choosing their own personal exposure to the housing market, but also in the aggregate effect of their actions on house prices. It is the build up over the course of the boom that causes the bust. The boom is the bad times. The bust is just the bad times coming to an end.

This relatively small cohort who might possibly suffer are also, currently, not suffering. In fact they are enjoying the fruits of their speculation as we speak, and many of them have been doing so for quite some time now, and may well continue to do so even in the event of a HPC, if they play their cards right.

 

[Lambie]

1 hour ago, thewig said:

DEBT actually.

Starring Hugh Grant as a Los Angeles landlord forced by a hilarious series of circumstances far beyond his control to service his BTL loans through demeaning and degrading acts of prostitution. Contains nudity and strong language.

[zugzwang]

18 minutes ago, Lambie said:

Starring Hugh Grant as a Los Angeles landlord forced by a hilarious series of circumstances far beyond his control to service his BTL loans through demeaning and degrading acts of prostitution. Contains nudity and strong language.

Written and produced by Emma Freud's unfunny husband Richard Curtis following their re-location to America to do something unfunny for the United Nations.

[renting til I die]

On 29/12/2016 at 11:46 AM, CunningPlan said:

I am just a touch brassed off yet again this year.

My neighbour's house has, yet again, increased by another (on paper) £60k. His £300k mortgage at 0.5% over base will have cost him £3k so a net, tax free gain of £57k after housing costs.

I meanwhile have to pay rent in the order of £30k from taxed income. To be in the same position as him at the end of the 12 month period, I would have needed to earn £87k net.

And this is not just my neighbour. It is the whole damn village. No wonder the local pub is full of smug boomer gits and can charge £10 for a glass of wine whilst I work my backside off to survive.. I want out.  

I understand, we are all angry.

[thisisthisitmaybe]

Just now, renting til I die said:

I understand, we are all angry.

And this is why we might see if not a HPC, certainly a 20 percent reduction in prices.

The clever politicians will understand they would get more votes by speaking out against house price inflation. Even the boomers recognise this as they see their children struggling so extensively.

There are two emotions politicians try to take advantage of. Hope ("things can only get better") and anger. I'm amazed the young are so politically disengaged, given they are being royally screwed over. They seem to care more about third-world issues than whether they will ever be able to afford a home.

[Venger]

And you keep throwing up your human shields on HPC,  Mr.Anti-HPC.

Hopefully your sister who chose to be a landlord can take some HPC, and FTBs can buy the house at a much more reasonable price than today's values.

Those who laid claim to multiple houses made their choices.   There's a lot to look forward to with S24, SDLT surcharge, PRA - keep me happy for HPC ahead against the constant 'give up waiting and prove yourself a man and buy a house today' of some hpcers.

On 12/30/2016 at 4:34 PM, Grumpysod said:

Maybe I should, there is only so many years you can waste your life hoping while there is so many other good things in life to get on with or try. Not sure how healthy it is waiting and hoping for a HPC along with all the innocents caught up in that, wishing bad on others cannot be a good thing for ones soul.

 

 

Quote

Passion born out of deep and abiding concern for the quality of life of one's loved ones is the opposite of bitterness and hate.

One can also be legitimately pissed off about something without being at all bitter or hateful. Assuming that expressing that on a forum dedicated to that particular subject means that it consumes the rest of one's life also seems wildly off base to me.

-Neverwhere

[Bland Unsight]

1 hour ago, Grumpysod said:

And yet another incredible rant 

 

Bitterness mate, trust me it will destroy you, work on it.

Grumpysod, aren't you just dodging a totally reasonably point?

Here you are posting about BTL on the Scum thread on 25 November 2016:

Here you are on the post about your aspiration to invest in property on 28 August 2016, as flagged by Venger already

And here you are a few weeks before that banging the drum against the evils of being a BTL landlord again, on 7 August 2016

Why are you posting in such unrestrained terms about the supposed evils of BTL whilst being quite willing to snap up housing in rural France as an investment - or were you planning to build the houses and do so with cold cash and not borrowed money?

What gives, Grumpsod?

 Why, according to you, are BTL investors the scum of the Earth, but your plan to get into the holiday lets game in France is totally OK? Where is the bright line that you can see so clearly which distinguishes the former from the latter? I'd appreciate your thoughts on this.

Edited December 31, 2016 by Bland Unsight

[canbuywontbuy]

Isn't venger's usual point that you have to take full responsibility for your decisions - no sympathy, no victimhood? If so, what's wrong with Grumpysod wanting to rent out a place or two in France? Because the UK market is messed up, does that mean the French market is equally messed up? Personally I don't see anything inherently wrong with BTL IF (big IF) the housing market is allowed to be a market.  Winners and losers.  You take your choice and accept responsibility for the outcome.

[Bland Unsight]

5 hours ago, Grumpysod said:

I have a cash pot, and was considering it. It is the not the money side I was looking at, just a lifestyle choice. I did have conflicts considering my views on buying a holiday home to rent out, which might have won over in the end, Something I would never consider in the UK given the housing shortage and anger here. I get no sense of anger from the French, not sure about rental for people to live full time in France, but that's something I am not interested in.

I wonder if you might be overreacting so badly to Venger's comments because you've allowed your frustration with UK housing to get the better of you?

My general impression of your view on the housing market from your posts is that you have bought the whole "the VIs will never let prices fall" doom and gloom meme and that on top of that you think the whole thing is a conspiracy and not a ****-up.

Seeing as you are in the business of generously extending advice to other posters on how to approach life, let me do the same for you.

You clearly don't think that there is going to be a UK house price crash, and you profess to find the whole thing upsetting, so why not give up and move to France? If you have a practical alternative to staying here and wasting so much time essentially moaning about something that you don't think is going to change, why not do something to improve your situation?

[Venger]

9 hours ago, canbuywontbuy said:

Isn't venger's usual point that you have to take full responsibility for your decisions - no sympathy, no victimhood?

 

Yes.  My position here is with GS repeated gloom posting, on thread after thread, that HPC is basically not possible against all the powers that be.  That is is a 'hopeless cause'.

On 12/29/2016 at 11:41 AM, Grumpysod said:

I don't think volumes matter anymore to those that "truly matter", I mean, who really gives a s&*t about estate agents.

And Banks are more bothered about house prices staying high rather than lending even more out, though they would love to. The only thing that matters in the UK is keeping the illusion of property wealth to those that have.

So many posts on threads that totally overlook position measures that have been taken against housing VI and offer prospect for house prices sliding back.

That individuals who refuse to buy at these prices should be guilt tripped about 'innocents' who chose to outbid us for housing.   I can pull up post after post from GS and "the home owning innocents".     Where I contest the market is full of £Trillions in equity, outright owners, high equity rich, Bomad assisted owners (equity), and millions of BTLers - with homeownership levels for younger people having fallen steeply.  

On 12/30/2016 at 4:34 PM, Grumpysod said:

Maybe I should, there is only so many years you can waste your life hoping while there is so many other good things in life to get on with or try. Not sure how healthy it is waiting and hoping for a HPC along with all the innocents caught up in that, wishing bad on others cannot be a good thing for ones soul.

That HPC is doom and horrors - and that my HPC position (believing the housing market in many areas is extremely overvalued and unaffordable even for those on high incomes - and wanting values to fall back down) - is somehow associated to HPCers (me) 'wanting bad for other people who are so special on the owning side'.   In a multi-trillion-pound housing market.  £Trillions in equity on own ouright side.  BTLer millions of houses.  Younger people badly priced out.     And the waste of life position against those who rent, save and wait.

And  GS ridicule about HPC side/renter-saver side being forever-wrong about housing market.   In summary.  GS:  HPC not possible because of VI.  The home-owning innocents if it were to happen.  HPC forever wrong.  He can't have it all ways.  It's a market.

7 hours ago, Grumpysod said:

Oh Dear, off again

 

Lets hope you are right at last this year/decade.

[Venger]

You continue posting as you please GS.

It is just so great to read your all your weekly posts, on HPC (house price crash), about how a HPC is not possible (VI VI VI), despite an impressive set of measures (S24/SDLT surcharge/HTB ending/ PRA/ Mortgage Market Review / BTL regulation) that some HPCers have good reason to be excited about.  

Just divert it all away from that to HPC not possible. (VI VI VI - banks - politicians - "everything to protect HPI++++")

On 12/29/2016 at 9:40 AM, Grumpysod said:

I am going to have to agree with you, I am great believer in things eventually balancing themselves out, but it looks like it just is not ever going to happen in the UK. To me you are spot on, aspiration has left these shores years ago and it has been replaced by a sizeable group of people who have decided that there number one aim is to keep the delusional wealth in the property market at any cost and no matter how stupid and wrong those who heavily borrowed must be protected at all cost.

 

And even more posts please about the 'homeowning innocents' who would be affected, if we did get a HPC (that is not possible because of VI) to guilt trip with.  

That those here hoping for HPC - simply to buy a home at a price at a measure to incomes - is 'wishing bad on others' and 'bad for the soul'.  

In a market with millions of BTLers who have positioned to stop young people becoming owners and to keep them as Generation Rent, and £Trillions in equity on the homeowner side.   I look at many of the houses on roads around here and feel I would be the only owner with a mortgage if I chose to buy today.  Oh but HPC on their £500K valued houses!  No the horror.

And the ridicule of HPCers wasting life on rented side being forever wrong anyway.

[Bland Unsight]

1 hour ago, Grumpysod said:

I can only articulate my own views, and I am not on my own on here for thinking what the hell is going on.

Isn't this a contradiction in terms?

If your view is "what the hell is going on" then you have no view, and if you have no view then surely you have no view to articulate?

However, much as Venger finds, I do see the outline of a view in your posting, and that view is that there won't be a house price crash. Now you're totally entitled to hold that view, but if you hold it, own it. If that's your view and you're willing to stand behind it then the forum would benefit from you expressing that view, though of course you might be expected to be able to explain why you hold it.

If your actual position is house prices will rise forever, but don't ask me to justify that because I don't know what the hell is going on then your predicament, regarding drawing a little bit of sniper fire from time to time (metaphorically speaking, natch) surely requires no explanation, but I'll explain it anyway.

There is no forum position on whether or not HPC is desirable and no forum consensus on the when or the if of a crash. There is no forum consensus on the mechanics by which rampant real HPI could be sustained or a HPC become inevitable.

However, there are many posters (and many vocal posters) who would favour a HPC and think that as events reveal themselves the extent to which those events make a HPC more or less likely can be considered. Hence, if you keep up what I read as your position (house prices will rise forever, but don't ask me to justify that because I don't know what the hell is going on) you are going to get people tipping into you. It's just a numbers game; there are many active posters who'd take issue with the position that you appear to be taking, hence from time to time one of them will take issue. If your default response is to suppose that they need to get over themselves then maybe more than a dash of "physician heal thyself" ought to inform your thinking?

Edited January 1, 2017 by Bland Unsight

[canbuywontbuy]

BU and Venger, we can still have a HPC and prices remain unaffordable.

That's how I see it playing out.

A crash of 20% takes a lot of people back to 2013 unaffordable levels.  It would be spun in the news as a "massive house market crash".  Enough people will pile in and buy at the -20% prices + the government will add some props - even printing money to hand out to people of a certain demographic as a "gift" for their deposit. 

For me prices, need to crash 70% to 80% i.e. a £250,000 3 bed semi in Northampton needs to be around £60,000 for it to be reasonable value for money in my eyes.  I don't see that ever happening.  Instead we might be looking at £50,000 reduction to £200,000 which is still massively massively over-priced in my view, and is to most young families on average wages. Factor in that the population is growing by at least 500,000 a year (that's official figures, you can bet it's far higher in reality) - that is going to have SOME upward pressure on house prices (I'm not saying supply/demand, but these extra people have to live somewhere). 

[Odin]

1 hour ago, canbuywontbuy said:

A crash of 20% takes a lot of people back to 2013 unaffordable levels.  It would be spun in the news as a "massive house market crash".  Enough people will pile in and buy at the -20% prices + the government will add some props - even printing money to hand out to people of a certain demographic as a "gift" for their deposit. 

For me prices, need to crash 70% to 80% i.e. a £250,000 3 bed semi in Northampton needs to be around £60,000 for it to be reasonable value for money in my eyes.  I don't see that ever happening.  Instead we might be looking at £50,000 reduction to £200,000 which is still massively massively over-priced in my view, and is to most young families on average wages. Factor in that the population is growing by at least 500,000 a year (that's official figures, you can bet it's far higher in reality) - that is going to have SOME upward pressure on house prices (I'm not saying supply/demand, but these extra people have to live somewhere). 

Where is the money coming from ?  There are not enough people to "pile in" at 2013 levels to create a functioning market.

Prices need to correct to 4.5 x gross single income, call it a crash if you will but this would still be more expensive an the historical normal.

Transaction volumes are already on the verge of market collapse, give it another 3 months of no growth in transaction volumes, then a big fanfare of budget announcements.  By then maybe the US will have another 0.5% IR rise planned / expected.

For there to be a market now FTB needs to find a way to afford, first they need to save their deposit, how many are not able due to paying rent and that bottom rung just being too far away to bother right now.  If the housing market seizes up all that money won't be proping up the GDP anymore and a recession is expected, try saving a deposit in that climate.  So once the market has turned into a buyers market and seized up it is going to take much longer than expected to unwind.

Now of course there maybe some new magical government intervention on the way that we don't know about yet.

Even with such bear comments from me, I don't think a 70% average fall will be seen either, but a 125k (which looks like 50% from your numbers) maybe just possible when all is said and done, but we maybe 5+ years from now to that point.

There is a lot of pent up desire but this doesn't necessary translate into pent up ready demand, they still need to afford it after deciding they want it and work towards it.

What kind of population growth do you refer?  Births take years to be relevant, imported labour doesn't usually come over with plenty of cash or high skills to make lots of money.  When the correction happens it will affect the economy and with GBP/EUR not looking good, with EU agreement to withdraw benefit entitlements, with our expensive cost of living, with them probably having young families to support; then our own native young workers stand an easier chance to save and become FTB before imported labour.

 

[Guest]

17 minutes ago, Odin said:

Where is the money coming from ?  There are not enough people to "pile in" at 2013 levels to create a functioning market.

Prices need to correct to 4.5 x gross single income, call it a crash if you will but this would still be more expensive an the historical normal.

Transaction volumes are already on the verge of market collapse, give it another 3 months of no growth in transaction volumes, then a big fanfare of budget announcements.  By then maybe the US will have another 0.5% IR rise planned / expected.

For there to be a market now FTB needs to find a way to afford, first they need to save their deposit, how many are not able due to paying rent and that bottom rung just being too far away to bother right now.  If the housing market seizes up all that money won't be proping up the GDP anymore and a recession is expected, try saving a deposit in that climate.  So once the market has turned into a buyers market and seized up it is going to take much longer than expected to unwind.

Exactly. There are lots of people who would like to be FTBs, but that does not mean they will or can buy at 2016 prices. or 2013 prices. Until now the houses have been bought by BTL landlords with lots of cash, or more likely lots of easy credit. Now that has dried up ... the gap between wages and prices becomes even more evident (and crucial).

[EnglishinWales]

Brexit will crash everything. Can't see all these Chinese 'investors' wanting to hold onto their UK property once it really gets underway. Once the foreign money goes there'll be an almighty crash in the whole UK economy. 

[“Nasty Piece of work”]

The potential FTB's have been vastly depleted because they NEVER WILL afford a place, this is currently reflected in volumes.  The mouth breathing BoE has just about can kicked all it can, the USA is starting to raise IR's.  The ducks are in a row.

[Gush]

5 hours ago, canbuywontbuy said:

Enough people will pile in and buy at the -20% prices

There is no proof for it. The dynamics of falling market are hard and sharp, the FTBs in the last quarter statistics would mostly be buying just because they believe price will go up 20%, you just took away the only main motive running at this mad bubble price. In falling market FTB will wait till it becomes long term affordable, BTLer would desperately search exit doors. The floor price is just what working people are allowed to borrow and that is continued to be restricted.

[thewig]

Happy new year to one and all, I wish you nothing but the best for the year ahead!

 

(unless you are a DEBTjunkie then I wish you to taste the pain and suffering you have gleefully caused others over the years)

 

 

[thewig]

11 minutes ago, Grumpysod said:

 

 

DEBT DEBT and DEBT

 

This is what this is all about, this whole HPC site, Brexit, reactionary politics, 2007 financial crisis, Jeremy Corbyn, £90 for a premier league football match, pubs shutting down, out of control welfare state, out of control welfare state, crippling working ours and poor conditions........... All linked to debt and I can name 100's of more  damaging effects to society.

The trouble is for the last few decades there have been no real consequences with gambling using debt, the cocky jack the lad that brags about his £100,000's of personal loans and credit card debt spent of gambling, fast cars and drinking and women. to have it all just written off with a one years bankruptcy, even those that borrowed to invest or buy assets who got it wrong, one way or another have been let off, and then right at the top we have the biggest criminal let off in history, the pre 2007 banking system.

 

They will have you believe that debt problems in the UK will have you fretting in the early hours with hand in head, but there are no real penalties, try owing and not paying back a £100 in the third world. 

you might be right, certainly you have been right until now, there don't seem to be any consequences to DEBT anymore, and I have toyed with the idea more than once of racking up a SH*TLOAD on credit cards and loans and whatever then just defaulting on the lot. I must be the real MUG for trying to "do the right thing" when it is clear that isn't really the right thing any more in the eyes of our controllers.

It still doesn't make it right just because the majority are doing it remember, history has taught us if nothing else, that the majority are always wrong with the benefit of hindsight.

Thing is I believe in market cycles and long term reversion to mean, and I think we are at that point right about now. The US rate rise last month could be the first domino to set off the race back to the middle, with a little overshoot naturally.