Nationwide +0.8%

[ThePiltdownMan]

10 hours ago, canbuywontbuy said:

 

A crash of 20% takes a lot of people back to 2013 unaffordable levels.  It would be spun in the news as a "massive house market crash".  Enough people will pile in and buy at the -20% prices + the government will add some props - even printing money to hand out to people of a certain demographic as a "gift" for their deposit. 

Say they do "crash" 20% over the next few years...you may well have spent that on rent so not really be in any more favourable position anyway. 

[Venger]

21 hours ago, Bland Unsight said:

There is no forum position on whether or not HPC is desirable and no forum consensus on the when or the if of a crash. There is no forum consensus on the mechanics by which rampant real HPI could be sustained or a HPC become inevitable.

However, there are many posters (and many vocal posters) who would favour a HPC and think that as events reveal themselves the extent to which those events make a HPC more or less likely can be considered. Hence, if you keep up what I read as your position (house prices will rise forever, but don't ask me to justify that because I don't know what the hell is going on) you are going to get people tipping into you. It's just a numbers game; there are many active posters who'd take issue with the position that you appear to be taking, hence from time to time one of them will take issue. If your default response is to suppose that they need to get over themselves then maybe more than a dash of "physician heal thyself" ought to inform your thinking?

 

Maybe so - but on a wider level, but there is some theme to the forum - expressed in the name - where one would hope you can get an alternative view to the masses who claim ForeverHPI, 'HPC not possible', Generation Rent forever, core-voters BTL.     Which I have had just about everywhere else.   GS takes all that and doubles down on it, on HPC.

If there was not a central theme here, and a core argument against the housing financialisation, and position that is accepting for a HPC, then the forum wouldn't be here, IMO, and it wouldn't be called housepricecrash, imo.  

Is PovertyLater or PropertyTribals a place for renter-savers to discuss their hopes for better housing value?  How long does do any renters last on PovertyLater if they express view they want lower house prices?   Seems to me even BTLers getting banned there now if they're not amongst the highly leveraged BTLers, and express a view they can keep rents low.    If it's going to become a place where there are more HPC doubters than HPC believers, then might as well call it HPI. 

HPC is susceptible to big HPI VIs, determined doubters and crafty ridiculers.   Not claiming GS is one, but all his no-HPC is possible, mixed with Human Shields if it ever happens, cooks my head in.  

You can't fairly hold both positions imo on HPC.  

"No HPC because of VI", and if HPC,"not fair to Homeowning Innocents".  

And casually ignore fact homeownership levels for young have plummeted, BTL domination, along with long-wave older HPI mad-gainz.

SS went full on HPC doubt in a few posts in 2014.  I can partly understand it - but he did so from position of wealth (long term homeowner + pension from his 50s) and perhaps not realising the extremes of difference and challenges younger renter-savers are up against.  (Why I am HPC).

Previously I really enjoyed many of SS's stories, including buying his first home in the 80s, buying in London SW1 a couple years later where house prices weren't an issue for soon after he bought a porsche.  Upsizing.  Yet lot of doubt about any HPC from him in 2014 which got to me a little.  

However in late 2015 he came back to forum with technical postings of his view that we're heading into a HPC (his analysis of S24 and other policy measures that he did not expect to happen), and a lot of posts for hope of hard HPC - also wanting it as a 'good'.  \o/

GS as long term older homeowner... bought in his 20s and upsized into 90s HPC (not staying where he was and giving his money away to the few repoed owners but taking advantage of lower house prices) = "HPC so very very unlikely" (because "VI VI VI" - and no real explanation beyond that - but just constant doubting.

Even since S24, SDLT surcharge, PRA, MMR, and more....... HPC can't happen.  VI.    

Since 2008 and when I joined HPC, there have been HPCers come and go who have put 'homeowning innocents' ahead of renter-savers and those here looking for better housing value.  8 years. 

GS tips up in 2015 and goes on and on and on about 'homeowning innocents' - 'just wanted a home' - guilt tripping me, for wanting better personal home buying value that my family and friends position for (renting and refusing the pay the prices others have/do).

Seriously - it never gets old to me.   8 years later, and house price here up 35%.  

Homeowning innocents 2008-2017.

 

Peck peck peck at heads about 'never any HPC' (because of VI), homeowner innocents, wanting 'HPC is bad for soul', if prices fall 'then others will buy and keep them inflated'.

This USA (South California HPI bubble) HPCers position summarises my entire issue with GrumpySod's posts on HPC.
 

Quote

..with all due respect, what do you expect this forum’s users to do? Just stop talking about it and go cry in their soup? I get that your conclusion, and a reasonable one, is that the system is quite rigged against all but the deep pocketed and those connected to the central planning/government types will win while the rest lost. But it is in the discussion of it that people become educated about the exact levers  that are directly related to the distortion in prices and markets. If those that are outraged just all turn into a one-tune chorus of “it’s all rigged and we’ve lost” then they risk being taken as conspiracy theorists and sore losers. Credibility is lost. One has to choose a theme to battle upon…and have some ******ing faith that ultimately we still live in a democracy. Talk, educate, know the issues–a little feeling sorry for yourself is natural, but taking it to the point where you consider all action, including talking, futile, is, well, just pathetic, isn’t it?

What do you want us to do GS?  Be brave and buy a house?  Give up?

GS; HPC doubt doubt doubt post post post, with no argument apart from "HPI VIs won't let it happen", and if prices begin to weaken then "other buyers will step in and prevent proper HPC because no sense of value" (in a falling market - we need some buyers in falling market to set lower prices), and keep prices high.  And if HPC then "homeowner innocents, bad for your soul wanting HPC".  

I just hope all his doubting on HPC (no HPC because of VI VI VI) doesn't influence some uncertain renter-savers into overpaying for a house before a HPC - although that would be entirely their own market decision.

4 hours ago, Grumpysod said:

That is more in line to my thinking, it really has now reached the point where if we were to get a big fall in property prices people would still be blinded as to what really is value in property. I have done the maths as much as most people and from as far back as 2005 the sums just did not add up and back then on paper as much as in my view a property crash was inevitable it was not as bad as today in 2017, it should have already happened. 

I look at normal people and what they earn in the real world, my biggest interest and has been for a while is our love affair with debt, I look at the bond and gilt markets and just cannot fathom it all out, it really should have happened by now. To not question your beliefs makes you a fool, the collapsing of the economy and along with it the housing market is inevitable, but will it be in our lifetime.

 What about S24, SDLT surcharge, MMR, EMCD (making it hard for non UK earners to buy in UK with mortgage from UK banks), end HTB2.   This is just a light one - many others on this thread.  "HPC not possible."  If possible, "homeowner innocents/suffering" - renters hoping for lower prices is 'bad for your soul' etc etc etc.    If it is as you claim then what's the point posting?   Close the forum down?  Buy a house and be happy.  Renter-savers should give up and get used to being priced out forever?  Fine.  I have been on HPC and expect HPC - huge policy measures from 2009 prevented it in my area and then saw big new HPI, but I am still HPI positive (for my family, friends and future generations), despite all your "no HPC" postings, "homeowner innocents, if drop then other buyers will continue to pay extreme prices"

Think I would be more uplifted discussing HPC with Stuart L, and a room of many other housing VIs, vs GS's No-HPC posts, on HPC, backed up with nothing.   And actually many of them are now cool on the market, fearing some correction.  I get more of a pickmeup and HPC-hope elsewhere (although lot of great HPCers on HPC), even from big-time HPIers, than from GS, on HPC. 

[darkmarket]

23 minutes ago, Venger said:

If there was not a central theme here, and a core argument against the housing financialisation, and position that is accepting for a HPC, then the forum wouldn't be here, IMO, and it wouldn't be called housepricecrash, imo.

There's no need for a safe space, and I would have no interest in visiting this forum if there weren't a diversity of opinion here. Whether the view that challenges your own is linked to in national media or raised by another poster, you have to be able to deal with it every time, as indeed you do.

On that note, there's another position between yours and those of Grumpysod:

You can fully support a HPC that would lead to high levels of individual suffering, consider those who over-extended themselves to support an asset bubble as unwise investors who deserve the consequences of their poor decisions, and yet maintain a degree of empathy that recognises homo economicus is a myth and the market is comprised of emotional human beings. There are indeed no innocents, but that doesn't mean you should be blind to the inevitable suffering.

Assuming a degree of empathy for those who made unwise investment decisions also allows you to argue with integrity against the absence of accountability for so-called too-big-to-fail institutions, precisely because you recognise the suffering they deserve, but have been spared.

[Venger]

So what do you get from all of GS's posts?  

HPC not possible because of VI.  Wow.

Think of the innocent homeowners.  Wow.

It isn't that there is no empathy for the few who may have to sell and perhaps become renters in the future - but it hasn't happened... years of policy measures, own choice to buy... them not in rented, big time HPC doubts and lot of HPI forever mindsets anway.

Selling at a lower price and taking a loss, is just a market.  If in a few cases it's repossession... that's not cancer or death.  It's switching places to being renters that many housing VI and BTLers think is A-OK for us now in rented.  

Taking on debt is about making and keeping promises, in a market.  

What about all those extremely priced out and suffering now, on the rented side, from explosion growth of BTLers and 10% rolling annual mad-gainz in house prices, and new peaks in many areas.

All the homeowner focus (and £Trillions in equity) if IF IF there's ever a HPC (which GS doubts big time and his main posting position because of HPI VI) is simply using it as a human-shield against HPC.

One ForeverHPI owner I know upsized in 2014 to a 'forever home' and is now trying to flip it for £120,000 more (asking price £520,000).  Fur coat wearing, 2xAudi driving, HPI fanatics powered by BOMAD, hoping to find greater fool.

Maybe we can wait for some HPC before so much focus on the homeowning innocents at new peak prices in many areas - extreme prices/values.

Quote

 

-

Quote

"If it gets to the point where all landlords say I cannot pay what are they going to do reposes millions of homes think not."

 

Darkmarket: It seems to be slowly dawning on them who the landlords really are.

 

 

 

Quite - and - some concern from the BTLers.  BTLers with claims on millions of homes, and in last few years have been the group mostly behind the housing market, taking on the most debt of all.

 

Quote

 

November 2015

The stock of U.K. mortgage lending for buy-to-let increased to 200 billion pounds ($302 billion) from 65 billion pounds in the past decade and is growing by about 9 percent a year, Cunliffe said. The loans represent 16 percent of all mortgages and accounted for 80 percent of net lending over the past year. Demand for buy-to-let lending rose the most in at least three years in the third quarter, according to a Bank of England survey of lenders.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-10/boe-s-cunliffe-warns-buy-to-let-could-amplify-housing-shocks

 

 

And in GS repeated posts that "no HPC because of VI" followed by 'homeowner innocents/suffering' - and 'is complete tosh positioning. 

Had it from another HPCer, who claimed that you would be taking advantage of some poor person, when market is full of high equity rich owners, BTLers... and it turned out he himself had happily bought his upsize home from someone on edge of repo around 2010!!!  

Guilt projection when he bought a house a step away from repo from a desperate seller.   

What a croc of sh1t his empathy was.   I am putting my family and friends first on the rented side.

Homeowners are not suffering (mostly) at these prices in most areas.   8 years of human shielding for homeowners + mad mad more HPI gainz, vs renter savers plodding along refusing to be complicit in a housing financialisation/BTL bubble.

On 2/28/2016 at 9:52 PM, Neverwhere said:

Weak as hell.

More people are already suffering, because of the current dislocation between house prices and wages, than will possibly suffer in a HPC.

People who own their homes outright won't suffer.

People who have borrowed sensibly in relation to their household incomes and savings buffers won't suffer.

The only people who might possibly suffer are those who have acted speculatively, whether by holding multiple properties or by borrowing unsustainably for their main residences in order to maximise their stake in the housing market.

This relatively small cohort who might possibly suffer are also the ones who are most likely to have been driving the bubble and causing the suffering of those who are, as a result, priced out and unable to own homes of their own without borrowing in a similarly reckless manner.

In so doing this relatively small cohort who might possibly suffer have ultimately caused this possibility themselves. Not only in choosing their own personal exposure to the housing market, but also in the aggregate effect of their actions on house prices. It is the build up over the course of the boom that causes the bust. The boom is the bad times. The bust is just the bad times coming to an end.

This relatively small cohort who might possibly suffer are also, currently, not suffering. In fact they are enjoying the fruits of their speculation as we speak, and many of them have been doing so for quite some time now, and may well continue to do so even in the event of a HPC, if they play their cards right.

[darkmarket]

It's relevant context to point to the suffering of those who are priced out of ownership currently in response to the idea of others suffering losing their homes in future.

That doesn't preclude an acknowledgement of the suffering of the latter. It's possible, in good conscience, to assume the desire for suffering in one group as a cost worth paying for the alleviation of suffering in the other, among other reasons.

[Venger]

7 minutes ago, darkmarket said:

It's relevant context to point to the suffering of those who are priced out of ownership currently in response to the idea of others suffering losing their homes in future.

That doesn't preclude an acknowledgement of the suffering of the latter. It's possible, in good conscience, to assume the desire for suffering in one group as a cost worth paying for the alleviation of suffering in the other, among other reasons.

Many HPIers have made their market decisions seeing forever HPI.

If you and GS want to associate me to 'desiring' if 'innocents homeowners' who have bid the market up, meet some hard-market relaities if we ever get HPC, then so be it.

It is true I care not a jot for flippers of a £400,000 forever home bought at what I considered bubble-headed price of £400,000 in 2014, who are trying to sell it for £520,000 and in this market, may possible get it from free-will choice ADULT buyers - IN A MARKET.

My overriding view is far detached from that - simply that some choose/can't pay these extreme prices.  We are in a MARKET.   No one drags anyone in to pay £500K for a house in the 'crashed' North.

I am putting my family and friends on rented side, and millions of younger people coming through - badly priced out without BOMAD etc - ahead of those who have been bidding the market up on the buying market, and their own free-will market choices.

Housing market, with the extreme values reached in many areas, homeownership for younger people flatlined, BTL massive growth - is not just hugs and cuddles for the few who have paid such prices in recent times (with millions of homes owned outright).

On 3/5/2016 at 5:20 PM, anonguest said:

Firstly, I believe yes we have made quite a few preparations (financially speaking) to shelter us from a quite a flood - as have a great many. The fact is that, as history shows those who can see the madness for what it is, and take precautions, tend to survive more than those who do not. Whereas the financial zombies get completely eradicated.

But, as you say, it is indeed well possible that the 'flood' would exceed our expectations and not leave us completely untouched in some form or another (e.g. rising crime rates, etc). But then again are we not already 'touched', harmed and hard done by this ongoing financial madness? I would argue we, and our like, have already (unfairly!) suffered. So IF suffering should come to those who genuinely deserve it? GOOD! It cannot come too soon.

Using the fear tactic that you espouse (i.e. you too will get swept up in the flood) doesn't hold sway with me anymore.

What are you? Man or Mouse?

It has been said, in many different ways, in respect of personal liberty and freedom that it isn't 'free' - it has to, from time to time, be paid for in toil and blood. The same such applies to ensuring restoration of financial sanity to the world. IF I have to suffer some (more than already) to ensure a better world for my children and their children than I gladly do so. What are you prepared to do?!

These personal stories of people, in this day and age, having to resort to living in vans utterly disgusts me with the 'system' and TPTB. Anyone who is not similarly disgusted simply does not grasp the significance.

If it doesn't you then I put it to you that you have started to lose some crucial essence of your decency and humanity.

[darkmarket]

1 minute ago, Venger said:

If you and GS want to associate me to 'desiring' if 'innocents homeowners' who have bid the market up, meet some hard-market relaities if we ever get HPC, then so be it.

I can only answer for myself but that's what I'm doing, with a degree of empathy in reserve for those who lose in future. People like kids who'll have to move schools and make new friends, grandparents who'll no longer be able to live close to family carers, situations like that.

But yes, I assume the desire and I'm glad you do too. It's intellectually honest and ethically quite defensible.