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Oliver Sutton

Nationwide +0.8%

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From the press release. 

All regions saw house price growth in 2016, with East Anglia topping the table for the first time since 2010, with average prices up 10.1% year-on-year. London saw a further moderation in the annual rate of price growth to 3.7% from 7.1% in Q3. This is the first time since 2010 that London has 
not ended the year as the strongest performing region, and the first year since 2008 that it has been below the UK average.

Edited by AvoidDebt

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Great graph though on the release:

jZ8LOwU.png

I live in the South East ... I need to be in the 80th percentile for earnings ... is there an ONS UK salary graph that goes into that level of detail?

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I genuinely hate to say this, but I'm glad I emigrated.  The UK is making those that don't own a home poorer and poorer (i.e. most people under 45).  This is the opposite of aspiration.  Even if you want to just "get by" and have no particular aspirations in life, you have to run faster and faster simply to stand still.  There is no neutral position to hold on this.  We are all participants of some crazy game though we don't want to play it.

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It seems more and more like a one way bet. Either economic fundamentals improve and cause prices to increase, or economic fundamentals go to pot and yet prices continue to be supported by the 'emergency' measures introduced as a result. It's a bit annoying.

I suspect that if this is a boomlet, then it's driven by people hopping on using htb2, buying 'before it's too late'.

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1 hour ago, canbuywontbuy said:

I genuinely hate to say this, but I'm glad I emigrated.  The UK is making those that don't own a home poorer and poorer (i.e. most people under 45).  This is the opposite of aspiration.  Even if you want to just "get by" and have no particular aspirations in life, you have to run faster and faster simply to stand still.  There is no neutral position to hold on this.  We are all participants of some crazy game though we don't want to play it.

Just about every western nation, particularly those in the commonwealth, are operating the same loose money / NIRP central bank schemes.

All the 'desirable' bits of land in western (and english speaking) friendly nations are equally as expensive and undergoing massive inflationary pressures...backed by almost identical governmental & bank schemes & incentives.

Where did you emigrate to that isn't under the same constraints?

Perhaps you emigrated ages ago?

Because emigration now certainly isn't what it used to be.

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4 minutes ago, cashinmattress said:

Just about every western nation, particularly those in the commonwealth, are operating the same loose money / NIRP central bank schemes.

All the 'desirable' bits of land in western (and english speaking) friendly nations are equally as expensive and undergoing massive inflationary pressures...backed by almost identical governmental & bank schemes & incentives.

Where did you emigrate to that isn't under the same constraints?

Perhaps you emigrated ages ago?

Because emigration now certainly isn't what it used to be.

I agree with this but there are a fair selection of places which are "not as bad" as UK. I have long thought about going the "expat Brit in Spain" route for example, assuming Brexit doesn't put a stop to that.

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+0.8 is expected with the drop in interest rate, there are plenty of stupid people.

There will be a crash, all the data particularly in the bond market, points to one soon, I hope it is 2017.

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Just now, Funn3r said:

I agree with this but there are a fair selection of places which are "not as bad" as UK. I have long thought about going the "expat Brit in Spain" route for example, assuming Brexit doesn't put a stop to that.

Brexit won't stop people emigrating, in fact, it will encourage it as we subjects may lose our 'passport' into Europe.

Want to work somewhere else? Find the required gap in the job market, fill the forms, pay the fees, play by the rules, wait... jingo, there's you're new citizenship.

I guess on a positive note from my point of view, one possible Brexit scenario will exclude un-qualified and un-skilled people from emigration to most places... keep them back in the UK where they belong. Increase the flow of qualified, educated, competent people outbound and hopefully in less than a generation the UK will wake up to the fact its shot itself in the foot.

I know plenty of folk who've emigrated to Canada, USA, AUS, NZ, and gone through the whole process.

I know plenty more who are planning to do so now, with increased zeal as well.

The ultimate litmus test for the UK in terms of its perceived marketability outside of its own shores will occur when/if Article 50 is enacted.

I'm afraid this island is in for a hell of a shock, as are a great many of its inhabitants.

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1 hour ago, Grumpysod said:

FFS

That's it, I hold my hands up and admit I don't understand basic maths and common sense and have no clue to how the world really works.

Every calculation in my head tells me that this is just impossible and yet month after month year after year it continues.

Mark Carney wants the first paragraphs of his C.V. back.

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We should expect the house prices according to keep rising. Those who qualify for mortgages are typically already home onwers, have well paid jobs or are just stinking rich. They have plenty of money and can afford the ridiculous house prices. It is their home purchases which are driving the statistics.

House prices will only decrease when it becomes a buyers market

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I am just a touch brassed off yet again this year.

My neighbour's house has, yet again, increased by another (on paper) £60k. His £300k mortgage at 0.5% over base will have cost him £3k so a net, tax free gain of £57k after housing costs.

I meanwhile have to pay rent in the order of £30k from taxed income. To be in the same position as him at the end of the 12 month period, I would have needed to earn £87k net.

And this is not just my neighbour. It is the whole damn village. No wonder the local pub is full of smug boomer gits and can charge £10 for a glass of wine whilst I work my backside off to survive.. I want out.  

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52 minutes ago, Grumpysod said:

I look at the forever rising house prices as many do and it makes me totally understand why the UK voted to Brexit this year even with the fear of a short/medium downturn in the economy or worse. So many of us just want a stake in our economy and decent housing relative to our education and how hard we work. If that now means making the UK far less an attractive place to live and wages and welfare hard to come by in a country where migration sharply rises in order to escape it and more homes become available for working people, then I welcome that scenario.

I completely agree with this. The Brexit vote was a clear sign that the electorate was deeply unhappy with the status quo. One major element of that was housing. The response from the politicians? More of the same. This won't end well.

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Hang in there, its very clear things are changing.  

Who'd have thought S24 would ever have existed?  Many BTLs I've spoken to dont even know its coming...

Basel 3 is looking to make more impact - HSBC are removing their 95% products as of Jan 1st.  That's just the start.

BoE's printing machine doesn't look to be enough to stabilise UK GILTS, especially with US Treasuries heading up and away.

I know of a couple who have purchased a flat with 100% barclays mortgage (guarantor model) - sounds healthy doesnt it?  Transactions for anything above a 2 bed flat around here have dropped dead.

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3 minutes ago, Orsino said:

I completely agree with this. The Brexit vote was a clear sign that the electorate was deeply unhappy with the status quo. One major element of that was housing. The response from the politicians? More of the same. This won't end well.

They (politicians) don't have much left in the arsenal at this point, IMHO.  Especially against the undertone of Brexit.

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I would imagine this is a catch up for the rather odd results of zero in October aand November when the market appeared very strong.

I have been very bearish on my hpc commentary over the last ten years because the market up here has barely moved in twelve years, so actually i got that spot on. I have to rely on commentary elsewhere for other regions and tbh memebers here have got the South totally wrong given the 50% + growth since the peak.

Fwiw in Derbyshire stuff is selling (a change from previous Winters when most stuff festered unsold for months)  but i am stilll seeing no obvious change in price. Maybe 5%-10% up on 2007 at most. (and  indeed borne out by the stats). So stuff selling but no obvious increase in asking prices.

 

 

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/~/media/MainSite/documents/about/house-price-index/2016/Dec_Q4_2016.pdf

 

Edited by crashmonitor

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2 hours ago, cashinmattress said:

Just about every western nation, particularly those in the commonwealth, are operating the same loose money / NIRP central bank schemes.

All the 'desirable' bits of land in western (and english speaking) friendly nations are equally as expensive and undergoing massive inflationary pressures...backed by almost identical governmental & bank schemes & incentives.

Where did you emigrate to that isn't under the same constraints?

Perhaps you emigrated ages ago?

Because emigration now certainly isn't what it used to be.

I moved to Thailand.  There's no prescriptive advice on emigration - it will depend on your circumstances, preferences, opportunities.  I wouldn't rule anything out.  I'd also add that people should seriously consider the more obscure areas of the UK to move to.  I considered the west coast of Scotland ("unfashionable" towns such as Gourock, Largs).  IMO, risk is everywhere, but if it's everywhere, then everything is on the table as an option.  It's incredibly risky to just "do what's expected" (settle down where you are, or where the jobs are, then buy a place because the missus is putting the pressure on) - that is incredibly risky - many will end up broke, negative equity, divorced through financial pressure, under incredible financial strain.  Therefore, look at the positive side of that - if doing the "normal thing" is very risky, then the abnormal thing becomes not only a viable option, but often a sensible option. 

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4 minutes ago, Grumpysod said:

 

Of course you are right, so many of us agree with you. There is already reason enough to believe that this housing bubble is already inflated beyond reason, but it just keeps going.

I can add a 100 more reasons to your list why this should have already ended, but it just goes on.

Some of us are just getting a little deflated after all this time sadly.

Sanity eventually prevails.  If it wasn't for events such as Brexit, I would have been emigrating myself next year especially with my skillsets.  Rentseeking as an economic model simply isnt sustainable, and I believe the UK Gov are starting to realise this...if a bit late.

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3 hours ago, canbuywontbuy said:

I genuinely hate to say this, but I'm glad I emigrated.  The UK is making those that don't own a home poorer and poorer (i.e. most people under 45).  This is the opposite of aspiration.  Even if you want to just "get by" and have no particular aspirations in life, you have to run faster and faster simply to stand still.  There is no neutral position to hold on this.  We are all participants of some crazy game though we don't want to play it.

Yup, looking likely that the post-War home ownership boom was a blip and we're returning to the days when owning your own home is essentially a luxury, not something an average earner can aspire to. 

The idea that, say, an average retail worker in the South East could afford their own home (and a reasonably decent home in a reasonably nice area, maybe even a house) on their own wages is now so remote, it's absurd. 

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