Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[newbonic]

17 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

That's highly questionable Labour is after power, plus almost all their MPs and +60% of Labour voters are Remainers, they will face whatever way they need to gain electoral advantage at the next GE.

Their manifesto expressed support for a Brexit that is in the national interest.

if, as appears likely at the moment, it becomes apparent that Brexit is not in the national interest why would they not oppose this failed "Tory Brexit". 

Where do you get that 60% of Labour voters are remainers. This study says:

"These estimates showed that most parliamentary constituencies in England and Wales had voted to Leave (421 of 574 if you're counting), and that most Labour-held seats had also voted to Leave."

https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/revised-estimates-of-leave-vote-share-in-westminster-constituencies-c4612f06319d

 

[rollover]

1 hour ago, Byron said:

Labour of course is a Brexit party, so they would have to carry on if they won, same tactics, same plans.

As it was said before, that's questionable.

 

Quote

 

Meddling Corbyn & Abbott buddy up to EU negotiator Barnier

The Labour leader, who is a lifetime Arsenal fan, arrived in the Belgian capital with Diane Abbott to try and sway Mr Barnier, who is leading the bloc’s team of lawyers, into a softer Brexit. He said: “Labour is a government in waiting and we are ready to take up the responsibility for Brexit negotiations. “Labour respects the referendum result and the decision to leave the European Union. But a Labour Brexit would look very different to the race-to-the-bottom tax haven backed by this Conservative Government. "In contrast to the Conservatives' megaphone diplomacy, we will conduct relations with our European neighbours respectfully and in the spirit of friendship.”  Express

 

I heard rumor Arsenal is after big fish, but I didn't expecting that.

[pig]

54 minutes ago, newbonic said:

Where do you get that 60% of Labour voters are remainers. This study says:

"These estimates showed that most parliamentary constituencies in England and Wales had voted to Leave (421 of 574 if you're counting), and that most Labour-held seats had also voted to Leave."

https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/revised-estimates-of-leave-vote-share-in-westminster-constituencies-c4612f06319d

 

Let me get this straight - you're arguing that over 70% of the country voted to Leave and what 90% of Labour voters ?

[Futuroid]

4 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Is that the chocolate orange made in Poland?

Once we leave the EU, we'll magically become competitive on the chocolate manufacturing front again.

No plan required.

[Confusion of VIs]

3 hours ago, newbonic said:

Where do you get that 60% of Labour voters are remainers. This study says:

"These estimates showed that most parliamentary constituencies in England and Wales had voted to Leave (421 of 574 if you're counting), and that most Labour-held seats had also voted to Leave."

https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/revised-estimates-of-leave-vote-share-in-westminster-constituencies-c4612f06319d

 

You can find all sorts of details below, IIRC the estimate was that around 64% of Labour supporters voted Leave.   

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/How-the-UK-voted-Full-tables-1.pdf

The analysis you quote ignored the fact that many Leave voters had never/rarely previously voted in an election and still counted them as party supporters.   

Edited July 13, 2017 by Confusion of VIs

[GrizzlyDave]

4 hours ago, Futuroid said:

Once we leave the EU, we'll magically become competitive on the chocolate manufacturing front again.

No plan required.

Do birds which fly return back to the nest?

Edited July 13, 2017 by GrizzlyDave

[HairyOb1]

On 12/07/2017 at 11:46 AM, kzb said:

Do we know the outcome of this case?  David Owen's article (dated June 2017) argues that we do not automatically leave the EEA when we leave the EU.

No, I still think it's being discussed in legal circles as a plan B to stop a hard brexit

5 hours ago, kzb said:

They are taking the country to the left, and there is a mass movement, Momentum, behind them. 

All this is well known:  the left has always opposed the EEC/EU.  Jeremy Corbyn campaigned for Leave in the 1970s referendum and has voted against each and every treaty since then.

He's changed his hairstyle since.

I think there's another referendum in this.

[Confusion of VIs]

2 hours ago, HairyOb1 said:

No, I still think it's being discussed in legal circles as a plan B to stop a hard brexit

He's changed his hairstyle since.

I think there's another referendum in this.

That depends on whether the Brexit deal is in line with the expectations raised by the leave campaign. if it is no need for a second referendum. If it falls far short of expectations imagine how divided the country will be for generations to come if we are dragged out against the will of the people (which Leavers will be surprised to discover wasn't frozen in aspic on the night of the referendum).  

Give it 5 years and trying to find someone who admits to voting Leave will be like trying to find an Iraq war supporter (probably harder as the Iraq war was rather more popular than leaving the EU).

[pig]

19 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

That depends on whether the Brexit deal is in line with the expectations raised by the leave campaign. if it is no need for a second referendum. If it falls far short of expectations imagine how divided the country will be for generations to come if we are dragged out against the will of the people (which Leavers will be surprised to discover wasn't frozen in aspic on the night of the referendum).  

Give it 5 years and trying to find someone who admits to voting Leave will be like trying to find an Iraq war supporter (probably harder as the Iraq war was rather more popular than leaving the EU).

Yes well I've started thinking a credible post Brexit plan is a bit like the hunt for WMD.

Re: a 2nd referendum, are the public any better informed now/in 20 months time ?  Not really having a clear strategy also means the government is unable to engage the public in considering the future properly 

How would any options available at the end of the process be presented ? 

 

[Maynardgravy]

47 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Give it 5 years and trying to find someone who admits to voting Leave will be like trying to find an Iraq war supporter (probably harder as the Iraq war was rather more popular than leaving the EU).

I'll be shouting it from the rooftops that at least i voted against the inexorable march toward's Soros' NWO enslavement. Meanwhile all the remainers can enjoy their hijacking of democracy 'cos there'll be non once George gets his turkeys voting for EU glory.

[knock out johnny]

26 minutes ago, Maynardgravy said:

I'll be shouting it from the rooftops that at least i voted against the inexorable march toward's Soros' NWO enslavement. Meanwhile all the remainers can enjoy their hijacking of democracy 'cos there'll be non once George gets his turkeys voting for EU glory.

You forgot to mention the shape-shifting lizards

Edited July 13, 2017 by knock out johnny

[Confusion of VIs]

43 minutes ago, Maynardgravy said:

I'll be shouting it from the rooftops that at least i voted against the inexorable march toward's Soros' NWO enslavement. Meanwhile all the remainers can enjoy their hijacking of democracy 'cos there'll be non once George gets his turkeys voting for EU glory.

Hard to claim to be a champion of democracy while at the same time denying the people a second referendum if the promised Brexit cannot be delivered.

Where does this apparently widespread obsession with Soros come from - is it just because he is very rich and a bit lefty

[Confusion of VIs]

Just some of today's nuggets of Brexit joy:

Times:    A government adviser has compared Brexit to the appeasement of the Nazis in the 1930s.

FT:        Britain is incapable of managing Brexit and calamity will follow

FT:        More problems than solutions in Brexit repeal bill

FT:        Britain concedes it will have to pay EU exit bill

All behind paywalls but if you can be bothered you can find them by searching the text.

 

[bear.getting.old]

2 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

That depends on whether the Brexit deal is in line with the expectations raised by the leave campaign. if it is no need for a second referendum. If it falls far short of expectations imagine how divided the country will be for generations to come if we are dragged out against the will of the people (which Leavers will be surprised to discover wasn't frozen in aspic on the night of the referendum).  

Give it 5 years and trying to find someone who admits to voting Leave will be like trying to find an Iraq war supporter (probably harder as the Iraq war was rather more popular than leaving the EU).

bull. I'm going to put my vote leave sticker back in my car

Edited July 14, 2017 by bear.getting.old

[bear.getting.old]

23 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

The bad Brexit news just keeps on coming.

there really is no plan: 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/12/theresa-mays-government-could-come-apart-like-chocolate-orange/

the IT project needed to manage post Brexit trade, I posted about being way behind schedule with no chance of coming in on time about 6 months ago, hasn't improved

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-national-audit-office-amyas-morse-customs-check-computer-it-system-a7837811.html

Labours decision to oppose the great repeal bill means it will be impossible to get it through the Commons and Lords in this two year parliament, and even that assumes no Conservative rebellion:   

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/theresa-may-great-repeal-bill-parliament-brexit-negotations-deal-a7837616.html

Irish worried about hard Brexit, but at least they want the EU to give us a way out. 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40589248

I am beginning to suspect that the government already knows that Brexit is dead in the water but haven't yet worked out how they are going to break the news to the rest of us.

   

All from the usual biased news sources who are anti brexit and engaged in a media brainwashing campaign in a vain attempt to convince the plebs we should never leave and hope of a 2nd referendum.

[Confusion of VIs]

22 minutes ago, bear.getting.old said:

All from the usual biased news sources who are anti brexit and engaged in a media brainwashing campaign in a vain attempt to convince the plebs we should never leave and hope of a 2nd referendum.

Maybe but even if that was true they still have a lot of catching up to do with the 40 years of anti EU propaganda from all the foreign billionaire owned press.

Edited July 14, 2017 by Confusion of VIs

[Confusion of VIs]

22 minutes ago, bear.getting.old said:

bull. I'm going to put my vote leave sticker back in my car

I didn't  say no one would admit to it, after all I am sure there are people out there who still think the Iraq war was a good idea, but I suspect you will be pretty much on your own.

[bear.getting.old]

Oh come on you know there has been much more pro EU propaganda over the 40 years than anti. Nigel Farage until recently was never given airtime and UKIP was a tiny party that meant nothing. Meanwhile the BBC has been funded by the EU and its bias against Brexit is clear to see. The BBC is very mainstream and because of its supposed inpartiality a lot of people believe it. Very handy for the EU is that.

The Iraq war was a good idea at the time but unfortunately the USA and UK got no thanks for removing an evil dictator. Todays Iraq is North Korea. Should we ignore that one?

Edited July 14, 2017 by bear.getting.old

[Confusion of VIs]

1 minute ago, bear.getting.old said:

Oh come on you know there has been much more pro EU propaganda over the 40 years than anti. Nigel Farage until recently was never given airtime and UKIP was a tiny party that meant nothing. Meanwhile the BBC has been funded by the EU and its bias against Brexit is clear to see. The BBC is very mainstream and because of its supposed inpartiality a lot of people believe it. Very handy for the EU is that.

Most even reasonably educated people support remaining in the EU, so I agree there is probably a degree of pro EU bias in reporting by the BBC but many newspapers are now are owned by billionaires who want a mouthpiece for their views, which seem to be rabidly anti EU.    

[bear.getting.old]

Yes that makes me rather upset, that otherwise usually intelligent people have been so brainwashed by a culture of fear that they support remain. But that is the power of the VI's of the EU, a bit like the VI's of the pro HPI world. Those benefiting from the gravy train of the EU want it to continue. They also know that a complete exit would mean the EU having to find the UKs huge contibrution elsewhere, but where. The EU is on borrowed time. If anyone should be pro EU its me as I have EU investments which will suffer, but I put the UKs best interests before myself. Thats what leavers do they are unselfish, put the country first.

Edited July 14, 2017 by bear.getting.old

[Confusion of VIs]

14 minutes ago, bear.getting.old said:

Yes that makes me rather upset, that otherwise usually intelligent people have been so brainwashed by a culture of fear that they support remain. But that is the power of the VI's of the EU, a bit like the VI's of the pro HPI world. Those benefiting from the gravy train of the EU want it to continue. They also know that a complete exit would mean the EU having to find the UKs huge contibrution elsewhere, but where. The EU is on borrowed time. If anyone should be pro EU its me as I have EU investments which will suffer, but I put the UKs best interests before myself. Thats what leavers do they are unselfish, put the country first.

We went through this upthread a while ago, our huge £8bn net contribution amounts to around 0.09% of the EUs GDP,  not even a rounding error and less than the upward revision in the EU's GDP in the first quarter alone of this year - not nearly enough to influence decision making.

I also have significant EU investments, mainly pensions accrued while working in the EU and have seen them rise in value by over 15% since Brexit with more to come if we get a hard Brexit, and like you I put the national interest first, but in my case by voting Remain.  

[bear.getting.old]

If by your logic the EU is so strong and the 0.09% figure you quote makes no difference at all then EU clearly doesn't need the UK...  you should have voted leave.

Edited July 14, 2017 by bear.getting.old

[Peter Hun]

6 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Hard to claim to be a champion of democracy while at the same time denying the people a second referendum if the promised Brexit cannot be delivered.

Where does this apparently widespread obsession with Soros come from - is it just because he is very rich and a bit lefty

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Goldstein

Its a reminder of Russia's and Putin's Useful Idiot's  role in Brexit.

[Maynardgravy]

6 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Hard to claim to be a champion of democracy while at the same time denying the people a second referendum if the promised Brexit cannot be delivered.

Where does this apparently widespread obsession with Soros come from - is it just because he is very rich and a bit lefty

Ha, Soros a 'lefty'. The Rothschild pawn who goes around the world stealing wealth from countries then funds any group he can via his 'Open Society Foundation' to cause chaos in his 'divide and rule' strategy. Claiming them to be progressive policies - progressive to him and no one else.

where does your democracy end? Third, fourth referendum or just the one the right result ends at?

You can have a second referndum when our choice has had a decent run.and not before. 

Not that i believe it will be given that chance.

[Futuroid]

5 hours ago, bear.getting.old said:

If by your logic the EU is so strong and the 0.09% figure you quote makes no difference at all then EU clearly doesn't need the UK...  you should have voted leave.

I don't think the people who voted Remain were doing so because they were worried the EU would fail without the UK.

In fact, quite the opposite...