Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[NobodyInParticular]

 

Has anyone looked at what would happen if 2000 votes were carefully depositied the other way? Yes fptp is not real democracy, but then i wonder what is? The EU woonders that too, it seems.

We should be able to do better than FPTP. HoL isn't democratic either so we have an opportunity to mix systems, forms of representation with appropriate reforms. The constituency system is good in that it means people have an MP and my preference would be to keep that but with some form of 'instant run off'. That's still not perfect as there is no perfect.

[spyguy]

 

Now we have Dominic Cummings applying his laser like focus in areas he has no idea about, can we expect to become more like the French?

No.

You dont want anyone in a cosy civil service making decisions.

The Us doesnt do well because their enarques are better than the French. The US doesnt have enarques - the state steps out of the way.

 

[captainb]

 

Has anyone looked at what would happen if 2000 votes were carefully depositied the other way? Yes fptp is not real democracy, but then i wonder what is? The EU woonders that too, it seems.

Nothing. As shown in this thread the corbyn would have been pm with 2000 carefully placed votes is a left wing myth anyway 

[IMHAL]

 

The "wayward child" (UK) is headed for disaster, according to Mommy/Daddy/Scary babysitter EU, in reality all countries following the Buy shite you don`t need and houses for big prices on debt model are headed for disaster, and that includes the EU who have a track record of talking Calm Seas while shovelling printed money into the furnace as the ship lists wildly to Starboard, in reality do you think the EU can cut loose a market as big as the UK after prolonged lockdowns? You need to think things through properly and stop spouting Pro-Remain headlines.

We need the EU roughly 4 times more than they need us for goods and 6 times more for services, economically speaking. That means that they will find cutting us loose about 4-6 times easier than we will them. Hope that answers the question for you.

For goods.

EU exports to the UK account for..............UK exports account for 2.3% of the EU 27 GDP.

UK exports to the EU account for..............The EU 27 accounts for 48% of UK exports of goods, and 8% of GDP.

For services:

In 2016, services exports to the EU were 7.2% of UK GDP; for the EU 27 services exports to the UK were 1.1% of their GDP.

 

Edited October 12, 2020 by IMHAL

[NobodyInParticular]

 

The Us doesnt do well because their enarques are better than the French. The US doesnt have enarques - the state steps out of the way.

😂

[NobodyInParticular]

 

We need the EU roughly 4 times more than they need us, economically speaking. That means that they will find cutting us loose about 4 times easier then we will them. Hope that answers the question for you.

EU exports to the UK account for..............UK exports account for 2.3% of the EU 27 GDP.

UK exports to the EU account for..............The EU 27 accounts for 48% of UK exports of goods, and 8% of GDP.

EU countries see the growth area in the BRICs, by and large, so the UK is important, but not critical. The EU also expects to pick up business from the UK as one of the things I haven't seen mentioned yet is that because the UK is losing existing trade deals with countries the EU has deals with then UK exports will become less competitive compared to EU equivalents come 1.1.21. There will be some stickiness for some things, but others can be substituted relatively quickly. So the UK companies will need to cut prices to remain competitive. You can then end up with a perfect storm - tariffs on imported costs increasing costs at the same time as the requirement is to reduce export prices. Given the UK has to import a lot of raw materials then a weak currency cuts both ways. So we are going to see failures and redundancies due to Brexit at about the same time as the ones from COVID start reducing. That's the sort of thing that could drag on long enough to induce a depression in the UK unless the government keeps the taps open. It could decide not to impose tariffs on incoming goods, but then there's no leverage in trade negotiations over goods as negotiating to increase tariffs isn't going to be a good strategy.

I revise my position with regards to 4D chess and tiddlywinks - in terms of benefit for the UK this government isn't even very good at tiddlywinks.

[IMHAL]

 

EU countries see the growth area in the BRICs, by and large, so the UK is important, but not critical. The EU also expects to pick up business from the UK as one of the things I haven't seen mentioned yet is that because the UK is losing existing trade deals with countries the EU has deals with then UK exports will become less competitive compared to EU equivalents come 1.1.21. There will be some stickiness for some things, but others can be substituted relatively quickly. So the UK companies will need to cut prices to remain competitive. You can then end up with a perfect storm - tariffs on imported costs increasing costs at the same time as the requirement is to reduce export prices. Given the UK has to import a lot of raw materials then a weak currency cuts both ways. So we are going to see failures and redundancies due to Brexit at about the same time as the ones from COVID start reducing. That's the sort of thing that could drag on long enough to induce a depression in the UK unless the government keeps the taps open. It could decide not to impose tariffs on incoming goods, but then there's no leverage in trade negotiations over goods as negotiating to increase tariffs isn't going to be a good strategy.

I revise my position with regards to 4D chess and tiddlywinks - in terms of benefit for the UK this government isn't even very good at tiddlywinks.

All good points. A weaker position for the UK begets an even weaker position. The EU may even end up making a profit out of Brexit, or at least reducing the smaller losses (relatively speaking) it will incure.

[spyguy]

 

We need the EU roughly 4 times more than they need us for goods and 6 times more for services, economically speaking. That means that they will find cutting us loose about 4-6 times easier than we will them. Hope that answers the question for you.

For goods.

EU exports to the UK account for..............UK exports account for 2.3% of the EU 27 GDP.

UK exports to the EU account for..............The EU 27 accounts for 48% of UK exports of goods, and 8% of GDP.

For services:

In 2016, services exports to the EU were 7.2% of UK GDP; for the EU 27 services exports to the UK were 1.1% of their GDP.

 

You are looking at this way to tranactional, a charge usually reserved for the Brexiteers.

The EU needs the UK because without the UK theres noone to counter balance France and Germany.

The EU also needs the UK as without it they face the under 40s rioting. As mentioned way earlier in this thread the UK has acted as a massive relief valve for mainlands under 40s, allowing them to work abroad learn English.

40 eyars the UK acted as a massive pressure releif from Irelands f-ups.

Since the late 80s the UK has provided the same to the French and now the Spanish, Italians, Portguese and EEers.

 

[NobodyInParticular]

 

All good points. A weaker position for the UK begets an even weaker position. The EU may even end up making a profit out of Brexit, or at least reducing the smaller losses (relatively speaking) it will incure.

Overall, over the next ten years, I could see the EU profiting from Brexit overall, but the outcomes will not be evenly distributed. However, Germany stands to lose more from export/import with the UK but also the most from the UK being able to compete internationally so perhaps it will even out.

For the UK the only real options seem to be low wages for many, reliance on suspect banking for others. Is it any surprise that many of those behind Brexit worked in those industries or have significant business interests in those areas or those likely to be deregulated? Note I am not saying it's a conspiracy, but rather those pushing it have individual vested interests in a particular outcome.

[debtlessmanc]

 

You are looking at this way to tranactional, a charge usually reserved for the Brexiteers.

The EU needs the UK because without the UK theres noone to counter balance France and Germany.

The EU also needs the UK as without it they face the under 40s rioting. As mentioned way earlier in this thread the UK has acted as a massive relief valve for mainlands under 40s, allowing them to work abroad learn English.

40 eyars the UK acted as a massive pressure releif from Irelands f-ups.

Since the late 80s the UK has provided the same to the French and now the Spanish, Italians, Portguese and EEers.

 

The way i look at it the UK has a substantial surplus with the rest of the world and a substantial deficit with the EU. In a federalist view this makes the UK a province which is an important source of foreign revenue for the EU.

Edited October 12, 2020 by debtlessmanc

[NobodyInParticular]

 

The EU needs the UK because without the UK theres noone to counter balance France and Germany.

Do the remaining 27 nations see this as critical?

 

As mentioned way earlier in this thread the UK has acted as a massive relief valve for mainlands under 40s, allowing them to work abroad learn English.

So you are saying someone motivated to learn English, who are often middle-class, are going to be the first to man the barricades? It seems unlikely.

 

40 eyars the UK acted as a massive pressure releif from Irelands f-ups.

Ireland's doing really well, though. UK no longer required. If anything many people from the UK are moving to the ROI. I know more than one person who has done so, and I considered it.

 

Since the late 80s the UK has provided the same to the French and now the Spanish, Italians, Portguese and EEers.

Portugal 2008-15, but it's likely Portugal will be doing better than the UK from this point. Also a lot of UK boomers went to Portugal and Spain, so surely those nations also provide a safety valve for the UK. I don't see boomers rioting, though.

[NobodyInParticular]

 

The way i look at it the UK has a substantial surplus with the rest of the world and a substantial deficit with the EU. In a federalist view this makes the UK a province which is an important source of foreign revenue for the EU.

You are looking in much too narrow a way at trade. You could argue that the UK is a conduit for bringing in goods from the EU, adding value, and then selling them to the rest of the world. And given that the UK supply chain imports a lot of components from the EU, this is often what actually happens. It's how trade works and worrying about trade deficits with individual groups without considering the wider picture doesn't make sense. What the UK fails to do is to sell enough in general to balance trade but the need to do so changed when Bretton Woods ended. What is problematic is the potential weakness of the UK monetary position due to the strain of Brexit with respect to trade balance. In other words, the trade balance was tolerable before Brexit but might not be after it, so it's another foot shooting.

[spyguy]

 

Do the remaining 27 nations see this as critical?

So you are saying someone motivated to learn English, who are often middle-class, are going to be the first to man the barricades? It seems unlikely.

Ireland's doing really well, though. UK no longer required. If anything many people from the UK are moving to the ROI. I know more than one person who has done so, and I considered it.

Portugal 2008-15, but it's likely Portugal will be doing better than the UK from this point. Also a lot of UK boomers went to Portugal and Spain, so surely those nations also provide a safety valve for the UK. I don't see boomers rioting, though.

Most of those nations have barely been in the EU.

Most Euers already learn English to some level in their home countries. Having the easy ability to go to the UK, vastly improve their English and support themselves working is a vast advantage.

Most of the EUers whove done that i nthe last 10-15 years would have faced sat at home, in their parents, with no money.

Ireland is not doing really well. A brief look atthe book shows Ireland is totally ffed.

The UKers going to mainland Europe do so using their own money and health insurance. That does not happen when its the other way around.

 

 

[debtlessmanc]

 

You are looking in much too narrow a way at trade. You could argue that the UK is a conduit for bringing in goods from the EU, adding value, and then selling them to the rest of the world. And given that the UK supply chain imports a lot of components from the EU, this is often what actually happens. It's how trade works and worrying about trade deficits with individual groups without considering the wider picture doesn't make sense. What the UK fails to do is to sell enough in general to balance trade but the need to do so changed when Bretton Woods ended. What is problematic is the potential weakness of the UK monetary position due to the strain of Brexit with respect to trade balance. In other words, the trade balance was tolerable before Brexit but might not be after it, so it's another foot shooting.

The UK's exports to (eg) the USA is dominated by services ($120Bn). The devil is in the detail, how much of that is due to the UK's membership of the EU and how much is facilitated by being English speaking and how much by Both. However, "supply chains" does not seem to be the right terminology at least in this regard.

[thehowler]

Will Johnson blink on Thursday or crash the talks for a while? Clear sign he wants the deal if he doesn't walk away this week.

And Reuters are briefing that the trade deal with Japan will be signed off on Oct 23rd. Should get to see the text then - on state aid and whether there's any services component beyond the EU-Japan deal.

[msi]

 

The UK's exports to (eg) the USA is dominated by services ($120Bn). The devil is in the detail, how much of that is due to the UK's membership of the EU and how much is facilitated by being English speaking and how much by Both. However, "supply chains" does not seem to be the right terminology at least in this regard.

How much is facilitated by the lower financial regulations  the UK has compared to the US?  You can get away with far more and be less likely to be caught.  Why do you think so many US banks have offices here instead of Paris or Frankfurt?

[captainb]

 

How much is facilitated by the lower financial regulations  the UK has compared to the US?  You can get away with far more and be less likely to be caught.  Why do you think so many US banks have offices here instead of Paris or Frankfurt?

Because this is where historically the transactions have taken place hence all the lawyers, accountants, brokers etc are all set up. UK rules and regs are orders better than some of wild east states.

Its like asking why Singapore / Hong Kong rather than Bangkok and Beijing?

Or why New York rather than LA?

 

Doesnt mean it cant move. 

[msi]

 

Because this is where historically the transactions have taken place hence all the lawyers, accountants, brokers etc are all set up. UK rules and regs are orders better than some of wild east states.

Its like asking why Singapore / Hong Kong rather than Bangkok and Beijing?

Or why New York rather than LA?

 

Doesnt mean it cant move. 

You're point is valid, in that Business has no reason to stay in London. 

The point I was making that London edged ahead of EU and Far East was because London was easier to turn a dodgy profit with a skewed regulatory system. That allows US banks and EU banks to do worse than they could on home soil.  The Far East allows worse, but their regulatory system is tied to political support. 

The EU just needs to allow more than London with more security than the Far East, then you will see an exodus of Biblical proportions.

 

 

[captainb]

 

You're point is valid, in that Business has no reason to stay in London. 

The point I was making that London edged ahead of EU and Far East was because London was easier to turn a dodgy profit with a skewed regulatory system. That allows US banks and EU banks to do worse than they could on home soil.  The Far East allows worse, but their regulatory system is tied to political support. 

The EU just needs to allow more than London with more security than the Far East, then you will see an exodus of Biblical proportions.

 

 

I would strongly challenge than London has a "dodgy regulatory system" in terms of large scale banking transactions.

Geneva? jeez. Try getting transparency there. Even in the states they are much more comfortable in having off exchange transactions go through dark pools than anywhere in Europe. 

[msi]

 

I would strongly challenge than London has a "dodgy regulatory system" in terms of large scale banking transactions.

Geneva? jeez. Try getting transparency there. Even in the states they are much more comfortable in having off exchange transactions go through dark pools than anywhere in Europe. 

The number of 'complex' products created in London is enough evidence for me. Most of those wouldn't be allowed in the US (even contemplating them would be subject to charges).

Geneva is a freaking mess.  If it disappeared, then half the 3rd world trouble spots would suddenly be fixed.  The amount of blood money there is an offence to humanity.

[IMHAL]

 

The way i look at it the UK has a substantial surplus with the rest of the world and a substantial deficit with the EU. In a federalist view this makes the UK a province which is an important source of foreign revenue for the EU.

You are looking at this the wrong way. You need to look at the relative proportions of GDP that will be impacted when comparing the UK and the EU. They will both lose out with Brexit, it's just that the UK will lose out 4 to 6 times as much. So yes, the UK is an important area for foreign revenue for the EU, but the EU is 4-6 more important to the UK.

If our defecit with the EU is reduced it will have to be made up from elsewhere...probably another country or block...ie it just shifts, it does not evaporate unless we start to produce the things we currently prefer to buy in (for lots of different reasons). That is why you cannot focus on a defecit with a single block or country. It's the wrong thing.

In simple terms, I own a business that turns a profit, but I have a trade deficit with Tesco's (because I need to eat). Is that a problem? No, because I choose to shop at Tesco's for all sorts of different reasons, cost, quality, convenience. etc. If I stopped shopping at Tesco's then I would probably be spending this money elsewhere and the deficit will just move elsewhere.... unless I chose to run an allotment and brew at home, but this is not my speciality and would prevent me from running the business that I am good at.

Edited October 12, 2020 by IMHAL

[IMHAL]

 

You are looking in much too narrow a way at trade. You could argue that the UK is a conduit for bringing in goods from the EU, adding value, and then selling them to the rest of the world. And given that the UK supply chain imports a lot of components from the EU, this is often what actually happens. It's how trade works and worrying about trade deficits with individual groups without considering the wider picture doesn't make sense. What the UK fails to do is to sell enough in general to balance trade but the need to do so changed when Bretton Woods ended. What is problematic is the potential weakness of the UK monetary position due to the strain of Brexit with respect to trade balance. In other words, the trade balance was tolerable before Brexit but might not be after it, so it's another foot shooting.

Yes that's right. Looking at trade deficits with an individual country [or block] is too narrow a focus.

[thecrashingisles]

 

No.

You dont want anyone in a cosy civil service making decisions.

The Us doesnt do well because their enarques are better than the French. The US doesnt have enarques - the state steps out of the way.

 

That's a very rose-tinted view of the US. US bureaucracy is a nightmare.

[NobodyInParticular]

 

That's a very rose-tinted view of the US. US bureaucracy is a nightmare.

+1

[debtlessmanc]

 

 

If our defecit with the EU is reduced it will have to be made up from elsewhere...probably another country or block...ie it just shifts, it does not evaporate unless we start to produce the things we currently prefer to buy in (for lots of different reasons). That is why you cannot focus on a defecit with a single block or country. It's the wrong thing.

 

Food is cheaper on the international markets than within the EU. We can buy essentially everything the EU produces elsewhere.