OnionTerror Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 9 minutes ago, thehowler said: No, it's just not a promise to pay. I think CofVIs is right, many people expect NI to prosper in the new SM/UK duality. If the economy lifts then there'd be less of an economic jolt for NI and ROI to consider a ref. NI's fiscal deficit of around 10bn is roughly 30% of its budget. That's quite a gap to fill. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NobodyInParticular Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Is it a restriction? Yes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NobodyInParticular Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 NI's fiscal deficit of around 10bn is roughly 30% of its budget. That's quite a gap to fill. "Nine of the twelve UK statistical regions (the exceptions are London, South East England and East of England) carry a deficit. At nearly £5,000 per capita, Northern Ireland's is the highest, followed by a £4,300 per capita fiscal deficit in Wales and £4,100 in North East England" So on that basis can the UK afford Newcastle, Newport and Newry? In reality, in NI you'd see a lot of international companies open offices in Belfast as it's cheaper than Dublin. It might take a decade or so, but it would work itself out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NobodyInParticular Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 The EU has a process. The EU is keen on its processes. You are talking nonsense again. You're so quick to cast aspersions. And so wrong. Yes, there is a process. Yes, mid Nov is fine, even the French are indicating so - as last date for legal texts to get through EP. Where in your quote does it say this would not include ratification by the EU Parliament? By the way, when are you intending to respond to my post indicating I was right that Japan would have to offer the same terms to the EU as the UK-Japan deal if the UK asked. You went very quiet on that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Where in your quote does it say this would not include ratification by the EU Parliament? By the way, when are you intending to respond to my post indicating I was right that Japan would have to offer the same terms to the EU as the UK-Japan deal if the UK asked. You went very quiet on that. Your questions don't make any sense. What are you talking about? I said the deal could be ratified, even if deal not done until mid-Nov. Are you saying it can't? And I have no confidence in your analysis of the EU-Japan agreement. It all looks like standard straight-to-WTO for arbitration member stuff. I didn't want to get into this with you as we never make any progress, so let's just leave it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OnionTerror Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 "Nine of the twelve UK statistical regions (the exceptions are London, South East England and East of England) carry a deficit. At nearly £5,000 per capita, Northern Ireland's is the highest, followed by a £4,300 per capita fiscal deficit in Wales and £4,100 in North East England" So on that basis can the UK afford Newcastle, Newport and Newry? In reality, in NI you'd see a lot of international companies open offices in Belfast as it's cheaper than Dublin. It might take a decade or so, but it would work itself out. I thought offices were supposed to be the thing of the past? You might see regional offices, but not to the same scale as it was 12 months ago... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 (edited) Could this be the main date? Informal Meeting of Heads of State or Government on 16th Nov, Berlin. https://www.eu2020.de/eu2020-en/events/-/2403748 Edited October 14, 2020 by thehowler Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OnionTerror Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 That is absolutely massive... https://www.transportxtra.com/publications/parking-review/news/66945/so-where-do-you-park-7-000-lorries- Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 That is absolutely massive... Not good for Dover. It's going to start looking more like Zeebrugge or Rotterdam...but inland - no reclaimed. And the expense. And the new customs agents - more, some argue, than all the EU Comm staff. Brexit is staring to bite. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OnionTerror Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 That is absolutely massive... Not good for Dover. It's going to start looking more like Zeebrugge or Rotterdam...but inland - no reclaimed. And the expense. And the new customs agents - more, some argue, than all the EU Comm staff. Brexit is staring to bite. Portsmouth Port has enough room for 13 trucks end to end from the motorway to the port - they handle around 500 trucks a day... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Gove is terrified of No Deal. Didn’t you see his frightened speech at the NFU last time round? Mulling on your point, I see that you're quite right about the need/pragmatism for some spell of implementation. Indeed, there is already acceptance of implementation from the UK in their waiving of tariffs/import charges for a time-limited period. Would be sensible to extend this to allow businesses more time to adjust to any new controls as set out in a potential FTA. Touché. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Portsmouth Port has enough room for 13 trucks end to end from the motorway to the port - they handle around 500 trucks a day... The free ports will save us, Dave. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecrashingisles Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Mulling on your point, I see that you're quite right about the need/pragmatism for some spell of implementation. Indeed, there is already acceptance of implementation from the UK in their waiving of tariffs/import charges for a time-limited period. Would be sensible to extend this to allow businesses more time to adjust to any new controls as set out in a potential FTA. Touché. My hunch is that this might morph into a way to kick the can on making concessions for the final trade deal. Technically we've missed the deadline to extend the transition period but I think they could find a way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecrashingisles Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Could this be the main date? Informal Meeting of Heads of State or Government on 16th Nov, Berlin. https://www.eu2020.de/eu2020-en/events/-/2403748 Good call. That ties in with what Barnier was saying about a mid November deadline. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OnionTerror Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 The free ports will save us, Dave. Of course they will...seeing as they were ditched several years ago, as there was no benefit to them - unless you were trying to smuggle stuff in without it being noticed... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
captainb Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 That is absolutely massive... https://www.transportxtra.com/publications/parking-review/news/66945/so-where-do-you-park-7-000-lorries- Each driver could be stuck there a week. 7,000 people. Got to have hotels, restaurants, shops, gyms (maybe not truckers) etc. etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 (edited) My hunch is that this might morph into a way to kick the can on making concessions for the final trade deal. Technically we've missed the deadline to extend the transition period but I think they could find a way. It does look a bit like a transition stage, self-imposed by Brits. I've heard whispers of us taking NI status with SM/CU inclusion for set time... but hard politically for Johnson to swing any of this without some big firework announcement on a deal. On another note, this yougov polling - I know, I know - is an eye-opener. Always hard to gauge perceptions. Edited October 14, 2020 by thehowler Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 (edited) Each driver could be stuck there a week. 7,000 people. Got to have hotels, restaurants, shops, gyms (maybe not truckers) etc. etc. They've lined up a few portaloos...ref only to this discussion... The Department of Transport will provide temporary roadside toilets for lorry drivers caught short in long queues caused by Brexit border delays, MPs have been told. https://news.sky.com/story/temporary-toilets-for-truckers-caught-short-by-brexit-12103924 Edited October 14, 2020 by thehowler Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OnionTerror Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Each driver could be stuck there a week. 7,000 people. Got to have hotels, restaurants, shops, gyms (maybe not truckers) etc. etc. If it ever took that long, hauliers wouldn't bother leaving the depot... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecrashingisles Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 On another note, this yougov polling - I know, I know - is an eye-opener. Always hard to gauge perceptions. That is interesting. I suspect it's because of the strong tendency in France, particularly on the left, to see the modern world as being under the hegemony of 'anglo-saxon' capitalism. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 I think Macron will (mostly) win his corner...and any benefits from the new arrangements for the UK will go to the Scottish fleet. Maybe we'll get something like better cabotage or slightly more flexible equivalence in return, and the LPF/governance stuff will go the EU way, though I still think the action-before-arbitration is too much to get through. Did you see the EU rules of origin draft that was leaked today? Nothing for cars with more than 50% non-EU or UK components, so all electric cars look to be under tariff - unless the EU can build all the batteries they need PDQ. Or we get the Cornish lithium mine pumping! The UK will have a problem with both ICEs and EVs, we don't have anything like a full supply chain for either. Maybe the biggest single Brexit related economic blow will prove to be Tesla's decision to base its European factory in Berlin rather than the UK. At a stroke the chance of the UK being a major player in EV production disappeared. Within a few years the Berlin plant will be producing more by value than the entire UK auto industry is today. Concentrating on ICE production isn't a way forward either. Although people are being slow to recognise it, the announcements made on Tesla battery day amounted to the death knell for the ICE industry. It showed the route towards removing the Cobalt dependency, increasing the production of a battery plant tenfold, halving the cost of batteries and improving their power density enough to increase range to over 500 miles. A few months ago the UK government was rumoured to be ready to offer Tesla "whatever it takes" to get Tesla to locate a second European plant in the UK. That seems to have come to nothing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NobodyInParticular Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 Your questions don't make any sense. What are you talking about? I said the deal could be ratified, even if deal not done until mid-Nov. Are you saying it can't? I thought you meant that the deal would be pushed through by the EC without EUP ratification. That won't happen. Apologies if that is not what you meant. And I have no confidence in your analysis of the EU-Japan agreement. It all looks like standard straight-to-WTO for arbitration member stuff. I didn't want to get into this with you as we never make any progress, so let's just leave it. OK, you asked me to provide information on whether there were provisions for matching as you seemed not to believe it. So I did. It was there. The general options for the UK-Japan deal are: 1. Skinny FTA, in which case it's not likely to be better than the EU-Japan one, which is long and we are told that it is. 2. Mostly cut-and-paste of the EU-Japan deal. We were initially told by our negotiators that this is basically what it was going to be. The various bits that have been leaked, in terms of the general provisions sound a lot like a cut-and-paste. Indeed, the provisions on state aid, protection of IP, business personnel transfer and so on seem a lot like it. I've actually skim-read the whole damn EU-Japan trade deal. 3. Something else negotiated in record time from whole cloth (i.e. since January - the fastest deal in history). We can wait for the text, but my bet is (2). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NobodyInParticular Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 (edited) The UK will have a problem with both ICEs and EVs, we don't have anything like a full supply chain for either. Maybe the biggest single Brexit related economic blow will prove to be Tesla's decision to base its European factory in Berlin rather than the UK. At a stroke the chance of the UK being a major player in EV production disappeared. Within a few years the Berlin plant will be producing more by value than the entire UK auto industry is today. Concentrating on ICE production isn't a way forward either. Although people are being slow to recognise it, the announcements made on Tesla battery day amounted to the death knell for the ICE industry. It showed the route towards removing the Cobalt dependency, increasing the production of a battery plant tenfold, halving the cost of batteries and improving their power density enough to increase range to over 500 miles. A few months ago the UK government was rumoured to be ready to offer Tesla "whatever it takes" to get Tesla to locate a second European plant in the UK. That seems to have come to nothing. Sadly, unless it's sweeping away of employment rights (which Musk might like but wouldn't work as part of an LPF for the EU deal or Japan deal *) that's not going to happen. * Having skimmed the EU-Japan deal there is an awful lot on effectively LPF for employment. If the UK has a deal opening up the Japanese market but has poorer employment protections than the EU lowest common denominator then the EU could take Japan to arbitration. I don't see that Japan is going to risk its deal with the EU for the UK. So it means that if the UK wants the deal with Japan it has to maintain rough parity of employment rights with Europe or the EU-Japan deal goes in the bin. Since it's only worth around £50 a year per capita it probably makes few odds, but it would mean a floor under the loss of workers rights that the likes of Raab would like to see done away with. Interesting, as the Japan deal may force the UK into some level of LPF by the back door as it also does on state aid from what has been leaked. The leaks on state aid suggest the UK-Japan deal is quite similar to the EU-Japan one. Let's see what the text reveals when we get to see it... Maybe we weren't supposed to sign up to tightened rules on state aid, but like IDS, maybe Truss forgot to read it. Edited October 14, 2020 by NobodyInParticular Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 ...or the UK says before any reunification referendum...NI would be ROI's problem...you'll be getting no leaving payment out of us.. Making pre vote threats doesn't seem to be in the spirit of the GFA. The ROI would probably counter that the UK is responsible for the poor position NI is in so should provide "maintenance" payments until NI is back on its feet. Perhaps NI leaving without assuming any of the National debt would be sufficient for a clean break and a reasonable deal for both parties. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 How would it be prevented from doing so? Scotland leaving would be hugely complex and disruptive, even more so than the UK leaving the EU. If it looked like Scotland was set to vote or independence a good Devomax deal could be offered as an alternative option, I think that would be enough to swing the vote. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.