Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[rollover]

Nazi Flashback - Foreigners in London ‘Horrified’ by May’s Immigration Vision

Proposal to list foreign workers draws Nazi Germany comparison. A YouGov poll on Wednesday of 5,875 adults found that 59 percent of people support those policies, showing that Rudd and May are in tune with voters. That is of little comfort to the swathes of foreign-born Londoners, many of whom have become naturalized British citizens. For some, there are parallels with pre-World War II Germany.

“I’m horrified by this,” said Paula Levitan, an American lawyer at Bryan Cave who’s lived in London for 16 years and has acquired a British passport. “I can’t help but flash on the 1930s and early 40s. Are we going to have to wear badges on our arms?”

The Nazi parallels went viral on social media after LBC radio host James O’Brien read passages of Adolf Hitler’s autobiography that had echoes in the Home Office proposals. It touched a nerve, highlighting how emotions have been whipped up. “If you’re going to have a sharp line of distinction between people born here and people who just work here, you’re enacting chapter two of ‘Mein Kampf,’” O’Brien said.

[Sheeple Splinter]

6 hours ago, Peter Hun said:

The ratio is 5:1 indirect to direct jobs will be lost. So 35 k jobs out of about 100k workers. On top will be the increased tax burden which will be painful.

I guess 'horrors of economic blackspots' from 1980 TV have faded from memory.

QT was in Neath last night; evidently some of the Welsh remember the 80's with deep seated bitterness towards the Tories. Port Talbot steel industry was also mentioned.

[Drat]

2 hours ago, Chunketh said:

Ok we got a narrow leave vote. Now we have a government, that has not previously described what it would do in the event of a leave vote (that means it has no mandate) taking the most extreme form of leaving.

Not even all the leave voters will support this, so how is it representative of the population as a whole? It isn't. 

The population voted for leave, just because they didn't understand what it meant is of no consequence (do people ever know what a government is going to to do when elected? Iraq war anyone?). The trouble is, the rest of the EU have to show that leaving is really bad to stop other countries leaving (as they can't show that staying is really good) so we either accept a shitty deal that is worse than we currently have (I can't see that happening) or we go for a hard Brexit and take our chances. How will a hard brexit pan out?  I think going for WTO rules is slightly bad but not a disaster (probably), but I worry there will be a lot of bad feeling by the EU population against the UK (We are basically running from all the problems of the EU and leaving them to it) and people will stop buying UK exports, in which case things could be VERY bad for us.  There is very little we can do to make people buy our stuff if they don't want to....

[Futuroid]

2 minutes ago, Drat said:

and people will stop buying UK exports, in which case things could be VERY bad for us.  There is very little we can do to make people buy our stuff if they don't want to....

They've started stopping already (if you see what I mean):

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/jaguar-land-rover-boss-says-european-customers-are-avoiding-buying-british-cars-amid-brexit-1584275

[FrenchLondon]

Hey Rollover, I just wanted to put the link in here. I didn't read the article before  But the parallels to My Kampf are just hideous. What's going on? Born people versus working people - I mean everybody is struggling. 

And on Hammond: he promises Tier 2 whereas May said last Friday this would not be an option and this is why 

Most EU migrants in UK would fail visa rules in event of Brexit

[cock-eyed octopus]

7 minutes ago, Futuroid said:

They've started stopping already (if you see what I mean):

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/jaguar-land-rover-boss-says-european-customers-are-avoiding-buying-british-cars-amid-brexit-1584275

Yes, I read something similar in the Guardian.

Shame, because I really like my Tiguan. But when the lease is up, I don't think I'll be going for anything from Europe ...

 

 

[Sheeple Splinter]

4 hours ago, hotairmail said:

Of course there is. Trouble is one club is very much more appealing than the other and they will be scared about the ramifications of the breakup of the Euro. How would you do it? Where would the liabilities sit? At the moment, the likes of the Germans can pretend they are getting their money back. But like every lender that practices "extend and pretend", the bill gets bigger and bigger and bigger.

Perhaps metamorphosis, rather than breaking up, to reflect changing times would be a face saver for the EU's elite. However, Juncker's recent State of the Union speech does not bode well for creativity and I think he is President a five year term. (2014-19)

[ccc]

"On the other hand, I was astonished when I saw the stats about migration in the U.K. from EEA. They don't take away as much jobs as I would have thought And if so, it's only jobs with higher degreees."

<<<>>>

As for the above ^ have you ever actually been to the UK ?

Migrants from the EEA only take jobs with higher degrees ?!?!

Were you performing at the Edinburgh Comedy festival by any chance ? No offence but of all the nonsense posted on this thread over the years - no doubt some of it by myself - this is up there with the best.

Beyond belief.

[billybong]

^

bloomberg link

Quote

 

The chancellor gave his backing to Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, saying he would welcome a decision by the Canadian to serve a full eight-year term through 2021 rather than leave in 2018 as originally planned.

“The governor’s doing a good job,” Hammond said.

 

Deluded.  Carney should have left at the same time as Cameron and Osborne - soon after the Leave the eu vote that he opposed - or at the very least announced it was imminent subject to finding a competent replacement.

Edited October 7, 2016 by billybong

[workingpoor]

1 hour ago, Drat said:

The population voted for leave, just because they didn't understand what it meant is of no consequence (do people ever know what a government is going to to do when elected? Iraq war anyone?). The trouble is, the rest of the EU have to show that leaving is really bad to stop other countries leaving (as they can't show that staying is really good) so we either accept a shitty deal that is worse than we currently have (I can't see that happening) or we go for a hard Brexit and take our chances. How will a hard brexit pan out?  I think going for WTO rules is slightly bad but not a disaster (probably), but I worry there will be a lot of bad feeling by the EU population against the UK (We are basically running from all the problems of the EU and leaving them to it) and people will stop buying UK exports, in which case things could be VERY bad for us.  There is very little we can do to make people buy our stuff if they don't want to....

 

I believe we are going to be betrayed over Brexit. 

If a hardening of attitudes across the continent towards boycotting UK exports is already underway then i'm ok with that.

Edited October 7, 2016 by workingpoor

[Will!]

2 hours ago, FrenchLondon said:

On the other hand, I was astonished when I saw the stats about migration in the U.K.  from EEA. They don't take away as much jobs as I would have thought And if so, it's only jobs with higher degreees.

 

1 hour ago, ccc said:

As for the above ^ have you ever actually been to the UK ?

Migrants from the EEA only take jobs with higher degrees ?!?!

I think that point may have been lost in translation.  Of the UK's immigrants from the EEA, a greater proportion have higher degrees compared to any other country's immigrants from the EEA.  Not:  All migrants from the EEA have higher degrees.

[Futuroid]

1 hour ago, ****-eyed octopus said:

Yes, I read something similar in the Guardian.

Shame, because I really like my Tiguan. But when the lease is up, I don't think I'll be going for anything from Europe ...

The way the pound is going, you won't be able to afford one - and that's before a 10% tariff is whacked on top!

[Futuroid]

12 minutes ago, workingpoor said:

If a hardening of attitudes across the continent towards boycotting UK exports is already underway then i'm ok with that.

Brexit was obviously 30 years in the planning... we've foxed them by being a net importer and only making things in the UK in factories that are owned by other countries.

[cock-eyed octopus]

8 minutes ago, Futuroid said:

The way the pound is going, you won't be able to afford one - and that's before a 10% tariff is whacked on top!

Affordability is not a problem. EU attitude is what'll swing it for me.

 

[Will!]

2 hours ago, rollover said:

Nazi Flashback - Foreigners in London ‘Horrified’ by May’s Immigration Vision

What a lot of ridiculous hyperbole.

[Futuroid]

7 minutes ago, ****-eyed octopus said:

Affordability is not a problem. EU attitude is what'll swing it for me.

You can have any Nissan you like, as long as it's LHD.

[council dweller]

Quote

Well, I`ve got a 24 year old Nissan and a 5 month old Suzuki bike. Don`t tell me I`ll have to convert both of those to left hand drive ?

Fortunately I`ve got plenty of forex to convert which will see me though for the next couple of years. It`s not as if we couldn't see this coming.

 

[Futuroid]

Nobody will have to convert anything to LHD*. But I think Nissan (and Honda) could have quite a few LHD drive cars "on a great deal".

* If you do need a LHD conversion for your bike I can get one done for you... very cheap.  

[billybong]

Quote

A YouGov poll on Wednesday of 5,875 adults found that 59 percent of people support those policies, showing that Rudd and May are in tune with voters. That is of little comfort to the swathes of foreign-born Londoners, many of whom have become naturalized British citizens. For some, there are parallels with pre-World War II Germany.

Quote

Foreigners in London ‘Horrified’ by May’s Immigration Vision

 

As far as I'm aware it happened in post war Germany as well and in Britain before Britain joined the Common Market etc - or at least you had to register your presence at the local police station or something similar and they would want to know who you worked for, where you lived etc.  Possibly the company you worked for did the actual registering and paperwork.  Lots of countries (probably all countries?) do something similar with foreign nationals.  

They probably do it already with some non eu workers.

Part of the visa and work permit process.

Edited October 7, 2016 by billybong

[F-sake]

3 hours ago, FrenchLondon said:

... Don't get me wrong - last year, I have volunteered to teach German on my free weekends - but one of the members in my class flew in from Dubai. He was even proud of his cleverness. I kind of felt naive and even abused. I must admit, I stopped teaching them. It's not rational and I should have done better and get over it - but I didn't and I still don't. 

On the other hand, I was astonished when I saw the stats about migration in the U.K.  from EEA. They don't take away as much jobs as I would have thought And if so, it's only jobs with higher degreees. That's a difference towards Germany where the poorest people fear immigrants with no education.
Put differently, I think you can not compare immigration taking up lower paid jobs and European immigration with higher degrees towards the U.K..
In my mind, it's especially the lower paid jobs that must be prevailed for local population in order to keep social peace.
In the U.K. nowadays everybody has at least a bachelor degree even if the job didn't need such a degree some years ago. In my mind this really throws working class out of jobs because of the difficulties of access towards higher education for working class.  

And I have quite a thought for my dear British friends in Southern France. People voting for Brexit did not even think about their fellows. My British friends are going to loose everything: they can't really sell their properties in Provence because the market is down, they can't exchange euros towards pounds because of the exchange rate and they will be thrown out in case of hard brexit.
So I still wonder if the hole Brexit debate wasn't more a class fight among British - but I don't know?Actually I like to prefer to interpret Brexit like this because it's not racist. And I have told you about my own struggle with this. I don't want to be racist mpbut I don't want immigrants making a mock of my goodwill to help. 

I am Russian living in the UK since 2002. I happened to be on holiday in Europe when the eastern-European countries joined the EU in May 2004. I was crossing the channel to get back to Britain from France in early May 2004, and even though it was only few days after I still remember seeing a few groups of Polish people with rather massive carrier bags crossing border in the same direction. I was well surprised to see them in such numbers, it just looked as they were there long waiting in a low start position for barriers to go up after the 1st May. I didn’t realise at the time it was a beginning of people influx to such a massive scale, and it would steadily go worst year by year.

A couple of years after that, a company I was working for at the time sent a recruiter from a job agency to Poland. About a month later a team of about 20 people turned up from Poland to work on the shop floor. These Polish workers were placed in a large private house converted into flats and as I was later told by one of them, they were paying £70 a week for a bedsit, obviously no council tax paid. A few local contracting fitters were laid off subsequently. Few months later more Polish people joined the company.

To be fair, many of these new Polish guys worked really well and I later made friends with a few of them. However not all of them were up to hard work. For instance, one of them was brought as an electrician. He didn’t speak English at all, but could get round in Russian. As an electrical engineer I had to look after the team of electricians, so I was tasked to guide this guy, explain him what was going on and what was required, and help him around in general. He pretty much straight away asked me where the local benefit agency was; to his great surprise I didn’t know it. He told me about various benefits which he was entitled to and which he was going to get asap. As for the job, he didn’t seem very interested in it and wasn’t keen on following the instructions. He half-heartedly straggled in this employment for a little bit and then happily left us - there must’ve been other benefits he found out about. Some other fitters from the same group later were dismissed for stealing tools and raw materials.

I am a kind of a “bloody foreigner” myself, so I don’t have moral rights to judge anybody in this situation and I am trying not to. I am not sure I would resist milking the system if I was in his shoes. Luckily I’m in my own shoes and as a naturalized British citizen I had an opportunity to have my say over this state of affairs in a non-vocal way. I went to the referendum and I voted “leave”.  I suppose there are many benefits to this country from being a part of the EU, which I recognise. However there are also too many glaring disadvantages, which many remainders fail to recognize. I could put forward tons of negative examples which I noticed over the years but don’t think there is any point. I’d like to think that I’m not racist; I really don’t mind any nationalities and have quite a few friends from Eastern Europe whom I regard well. But the state of affairs in Britain just couldn't carry on as it was. Though I’ve got a lot to loose, I am prepared to face the consequences from my vote and don’t regret it a bit. Bring it on.

[council dweller]

Quote

14 minutes ago, Futuroid said:

Nobody will have to convert anything to LHD*. But I think Nissan (and Honda) could have quite a few LHD drive cars "on a great deal".

* If you do need a LHD conversion for your bike I can get one done for you... very cheap.  

Well there`s a rumour going around that on mainland Europe they`re going to make motorcyclists ride facing backwards. You couldn't make it up !

 

Edited October 7, 2016 by council dweller

[FrenchLondon]

Sorry.

My source was FT and I can find the other article for degrees and diplomas.

I stated that only a small portion of the immigrants are from EU ... 

Quote

 "out of the 8.6m total U.K. migrants only a little more than a third comes from the EU"

 (it's just 38% - their source is as always Migration Oberservation Observatory at Oxford) 

I found this rather surprising. What's then all the fuss about leaving EU in order to control immigration?

Intersting is as well that everything seems to be planned well ahead of negotiations...

Quote

The study also applies a new earnings threshold of £30,000 the government plans to introduce for most non-EU workers in April 2017.

 

And yes, of course not all migrants from EU have earned a higher degree but those who will come in the future will definitely need one because without one, they won't able to get in -> tiere 2. 

This won't be the case in Germany as for historic reasons, selective immigration won't even be a subject for the most right wing parties. UK gets it all right whereas Germany just simply can't. But don't worry, we're getting the same riots from working class.

Ahen I say that Brexit vite was right, I think more in French. La révolution vient du peuple.  

BTW, German minister already speculates about a coming back of the U.K. as son as there will be a new left UK government.   So doors won't be shut down definitely.... 

They never loose hope once they think they're right.

 

 

 

[Futuroid]

6 minutes ago, FrenchLondon said:

I found this rather surprising. What's then all the fuss about leaving EU in order to control immigration?

Immigration was a smokescreen - they needed a "hot button" to press that would get the less questioning, more dogmatic part of the electorate onboard who would perhaps not understand their urgent need for complete sovereignty.

There has been a movement within the Conservative Party since the early 1990s working towards Britain leaving the EU.

This is a good read if you want to understand where the referendum and the result came from:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/29/daniel-hannan-the-man-who-brought-you-brexit

The problem now is that "Brexit" means so many things to so many people; for some it's all about immigration, for others it's about sovereignty, and for yet more it will be about "being left behind" and the results of globalisation. Not all of them can be kept happy simultaneously.

[Will!]

21 minutes ago, FrenchLondon said:

What's then all the fuss about leaving EU in order to control immigration?

The UK has a centuries-old tradition of welcoming skilled immigrants who contribute to our GDP per capita.  (The Huguenots are a good example of this.)  However, in approximately the last ten years, the in-work benefits (working and child tax credits) of our non-contributions based welfare state have attracted a significant number of immigrants from the EU who do not contribute to our GDP per capita.  We want to reduce this latter form of immigration.

Edited October 7, 2016 by Will!

[Futuroid]

1 hour ago, Will! said:

The UK has a centuries-old tradition of welcoming skilled immigrants who contribute to our GDP per capita.  (The Huguenots are a good example of this.)  However, in approximately the last ten years, the in-work benefits (working and child tax credits) of our non-contributions based welfare state have attracted a significant number of immigrants from the EU who do not contribute to our GDP per capita.  We want to reduce this latter form of immigration.

I know this is reported in the FT and sourced from UCL (and therefore categorised as an expert opinion) but it turns out EU immigrants are net contributors to the UK economy, UK born citizens are a net cost:

https://www.ft.com/content/c49043a8-6447-11e4-b219-00144feabdc0

Interesting the UCL figures also split out the eastern europeans from the accession countries (the A10 migrants) and show they were also net contributors to the UK (to the tune of £5Bn in the period 2004-2011).

UK citizens being a net cost is quite easily understood due to the population of the UK born population in old age. Similarly the immigrants from the EU tend to be younger (and therefore fitter) and in work.

I apologise in advance for shattering your prejudices and fully deserve the vitriolic outbursts that are sure to follow.