Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[slawek]

47 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Yes it is.

I am lost. Could you explain why you think that repeating words fEUtile or EUSSR is a valid argument?  

[GrizzlyDave]

1 minute ago, slawek said:

I am lost. Could you explain why you think that repeating words fEUtile or EUSSR is a valid argument?  

EUSSR isn’t really my bag. I’d describe it more of a plutocracy.

Resistance is fEUtile. Have you not seen Star Trek?

[thecrashingisles]

1 hour ago, thehowler said:

But it does resonate with the idea of how difficult it is to leave.

Quitting the Eu is so difficult/awkward/foolish/risky/impossible/backward/hostile/racist etc

It's a trading arrangement...

How easy do you think it would be to leave the WTO?  The fact is that all countries in the modern world are interdependent and true strategic independence is only possible if you're isolated or a superpower, and probably not even then.

[thecrashingisles]

1 hour ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Can we have that without all the political BS please.

No you can't, because it's not BS, and politics is inherent in managing human affairs.  That's just reality and cannot be avoided.  The moment you create interdependence, you create politics, and it's better to accept that than to bury your head in the sand.

As root, I feel a lot of Brexit support is a longing for the world to be simpler, but it just isn't and won't be.

[GrizzlyDave]

2 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

No you can't, because it's not BS, and politics is inherent in managing human affairs.  That's just reality and cannot be avoided.  The moment you create interdependence, you create politics, and it's better to accept that than to bury your head in the sand.

As root, I feel a lot of Brexit support is a longing for the world to be simpler, but it just isn't and won't be.

By politics I mean flags, parliments, presidents, anthems. All that jazz.

Im all for a bit of trade - but I don’t need all the extra frilly bits ?

[thecrashingisles]

3 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

By politics I mean flags, parliments, presidents, anthems. All that jazz.

Im all for a bit of trade - but I don’t need all the extra frilly bits ?

So you're ok with politics but you just don't want symbols?

[ZeroSumGame]

40 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

EUSSR isn’t really my bag. I’d describe it more of a plutocracy.

Totally understand, Dave.

USSK isn’t really my bag either. I’d describe it more of a plutocracy. In fact who wouldn't describe the USSK as a plutocracy, with Mogg, Johnson,Legatum, Bannon et al : no wonder you believe in Scottish independence. 

[GrizzlyDave]

21 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

So you're ok with politics but you just don't want symbols?

Trade Politics is fine, indeed it’s necessary.

[thecrashingisles]

9 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Trade Politics is fine, indeed it’s necessary.

Why do the symbols offend you though?  Does being in the UK weaken your attachment to this symbol?

[Guest]

3 hours ago, slawek said:

I agree with that, it worries me. I am not claiming it is British phenomena, another proof people from different part of the world are no much different, others are always the easiest to blame   

Good point, which made me wonder: could claiming that British people are any more xenophobic than those of any other e.g. EU nation itself be described as a display of xenophobia of the British?

[GrizzlyDave]

6 hours ago, thecrashingisles said:

Why do the symbols offend you though?  Does being in the UK weaken your attachment to this symbol?

That’s a flag not a symbol.

[dugsbody]

9 hours ago, thehowler said:

Just need to go to first results then to pdf link...

Immigration remains the leading concern at EU level, with 38% of mentions (-1 percentage point since autumn 2017). At 29%, terrorism remains in second position...

I'm talking about a general concern about the other as slawek pointed out, not region specific.

Ok, so nothing to do with European FOM. Bit naughty to try and conflate the two. 

[dugsbody]

9 hours ago, thehowler said:

You're all heart for your EU brethren.

Yes, and brexiters are strangely heartfelt when it comes to their EU brethren but only when they see them as an opportunity to attack the EU. I note the sentiment that the UK should most definitely not have contributed to actually helping the Greeks financially though. And again, strangely silent, no howls of outrage at the recent austerity conditions attached to the Argentina bailout.

[GrizzlyDave]

9 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

Yes, and brexiters are strangely heartfelt when it comes to their EU brethren but only when they see them as an opportunity to attack the EU. I note the sentiment that the UK should most definitely not have contributed to actually helping the Greeks financially though. And again, strangely silent, no howls of outrage at the recent austerity conditions attached to the Argentina bailout.

We do - via our IMF contributions.

[Guest]

15 hours ago, Cryptotrader said:

Just lately I have bumped into more and more people who say they voted Brexit but would now vote remain.

From conversations, people seem a lot more clued up on the subject. Several have noted that we will see the same, if not more levels of immigration from much, much poorer Countries than that of EU. Others have mentioned the likelyhood of hard right policies by the likes of Mogg & Gove - no paid holiday entitlement etc etc. For many, it seems, the penny has dropped. Many openly admit that they were conned by the Brexit campaign and didn't know enough about the subject. A few said they just voted Brexit because they hated Cameron and were sure it wouldn't come to pass at the time.

Thats many, many anecdotes from just lately, quite a remarkable number of conversations about Brexit, with a surprisingly high proportion of mind-changers - who the polls tell us number relatively few.

Do you go up to every unsure looking stranger and ask them about Brexit? Or are you e.g. a hairdresser with an unusually high number of confused clients?

[Guest]

16 hours ago, thehowler said:

No, I just listen to a lot of contemporary music. Aside from a bit of jazz, the EU's got zilch. But you're right to condemn this, it's probably a silly sideline to the discussion - though a truth.

Whilst continental output is obviously dire compared to that of the UK, there are a few flashes in the pan:

Grands Corps Malade does original, melodic slam:

Sophie Hunger is great in English, French & Swiss German (although not from the EU):

Some German music is good (depending on taste):

Even the Belgians have managed a decent (very popular in Francophone countries) singer:

 

[thehowler]

1 hour ago, dugsbody said:

Ok, so nothing to do with European FOM. Bit naughty to try and conflate the two.

FOM is still classed as immigration and the chart doesn't specify what type of immigration is causing concern (unless I missed a footnote).

And I was clear that I was talking about a shared fear of the other playing on the electorate, rather than attempting to blame FOM for anything.

[thehowler]

Could it be possible that FOM has been suppressing UK salaries...partic in low skilled sector? From Gruniad, ref to this discussion only...

The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) said the number of applicants per vacancy had fallen since last summer across all levels of skilled jobs, and said shortages were forcing many companies to raise wages.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/aug/13/companies-brexit-supply-shock-fewer-eu-citizens-arrive-uk

 

[GrizzlyDave]

27 minutes ago, thehowler said:

Could it be possible that FOM has been suppressing UK salaries...partic in low skilled sector? From Gruniad, ref to this discussion only...

The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) said the number of applicants per vacancy had fallen since last summer across all levels of skilled jobs, and said shortages were forcing many companies to raise wages.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/aug/13/companies-brexit-supply-shock-fewer-eu-citizens-arrive-uk

 

How terrible; next you’re going to tell me house prices are falling; not sure how i’ll cope with that news!

[hurlerontheditch]

43 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

How terrible; next you’re going to tell me house prices are falling; not sure how i’ll cope with that news!

increased salary = more debt available via salary multiples

[kzb]

On ‎10‎/‎08‎/‎2018 at 17:01, thehowler said:

Beats the eurozone area too - that came in at 0.3% (I think, was out last month). All smoke and dust though. Even so, I'm sure it will get prominent mention in the Gruniad monthly economic impact digest..

The Turkish currency crash is more dramatic - 20% down at one point today - and twice as bad as the pound tumble at news we were abandoning our biggest trading partners and sailing off alone into the tempest. Some Italian banks are in deep with Turkey, those paybacks are going to hurt now.

 

I don't recall the Eurozone growth figures being given their usual prominence in the news media, wonder why ?

The Turkish Lira, we think we have it bad.  The GBP is 70% of its 2008 value against USD.  The Lira is one-eighth.

The again, it is a graph of remorseless decline.  It halved in value between 2013 and 2017.  So maybe this is just the latest chapter in this continuing trend.

[kzb]

On ‎11‎/‎08‎/‎2018 at 21:53, thecrashingisles said:

The UK is a net taker.  It takes the savings on not having customs infrastructure on its borders.  It takes the tax revenue from EU financial services being located in London.  It takes the savings from economies of scale in regulation.  It takes the tax revenue from EU workers employed in its economy.

Many of the EU workers are not net tax payers.  In fact the UK has taken some of  the mass unemployed off the Eurozone books.  Without the UK providing benefits and low-paid jobs to these people they would be begging in the streets of Europe.

Anyway if you are going to include all these things then let's also include the trade imbalance, a cool £86 billion p.a. or so.

[jonb2]

1 hour ago, thehowler said:

Could it be possible that FOM has been suppressing UK salaries...partic in low skilled sector? From Gruniad, ref to this discussion only...

The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) said the number of applicants per vacancy had fallen since last summer across all levels of skilled jobs, and said shortages were forcing many companies to raise wages.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/aug/13/companies-brexit-supply-shock-fewer-eu-citizens-arrive-uk

 

From the financial times

Britain’s productivity crisis has entered a new phase with the overall efficiency of the economy being held back by a surge in low-value work.

One of the key drivers of Britain’s productivity malaise over much of the past decade has been the failure of the most efficient industries before the financial crisis to maintain their momentum.

Financial services, energy, management consultancy and telecoms have all experienced a marked slowdown in productivity growth since 2008.

John van Reenen, a professor of economics at the Massachusets Institute of Technology, said if the UK could not boost productivity growth, wages would not increase, tax receipts would not rise and austerity would continue. “Not very nice,” he added.

Conor D’Arcy, analyst at the Resolution Foundation, a think-tank, said: “The UK’s dependence on low-paid work has been a problem for decades. As well as contributing to the UK’s low productivity, the pay and prospects of workers in such roles are often limited.

“While providing a stable environment for higher-productivity sectors to grow is key, the government should also recognise the importance of lower-paid sectors to our economy by including retail and hospitality in its industrial strategy and sector deals.”

Analysis of official data by the Financial Times has found that in the past two years, increases in low-wage jobs in bars, social work and warehouses have served to hold back UK productivity growth.

This trend risks perpetuating the UK’s productivity slump over the past decade, when Britain has recorded the most acute slowdown in output per hour worked of any leading western economy.

Between 1997 and 2008, Britain’s productivity grew about 2 per cent a year on average, but since then it has fallen to close to zero.

Weak productivity hits living standards. If output per hour worked is not rising, employers can only find extra money to increase wages faster than inflation by more people securing employment or individuals toiling longer hours.

FT calculations show that in the seven quarters since June 2016, productivity growth ran at an annual rate of 0.8 per cent.

That annual rate would have been a much higher 1.3 per cent if there had been no changes in employment trends, but low-productivity industries have recorded large increases in their proportion of total hours worked in the economy.

For example, the transport and storage sectors rose from 5.26 per cent to 5.38 per cent between the second quarter of 2016 and the first quarter of 2018. There were also significant increases in share recorded by the business services, recreation and culture industries.

Meanwhile, high-productivity industries led by financial services recorded falls in their proportion of total hours worked in the economy.

he stated aim of the government’s 2017 industrial strategy white paper, and related sector deals such as those for aerospace and automobiles, is to improve the UK’s productivity performance.

In the first quarter of 2018, productivity fell 0.4 per cent compared with the previous three months, but rose 0.9 per cent compared with the same period last year. Second-quarter productivity figures are due to be published on Tuesday.

The Bank of England and the Office for Budget Responsibility, the statistical agency, expect some recovery in productivity growth, but only to about 1 per cent in the coming years.

[ccc]

14 hours ago, slawek said:

well known ccc's phobia of Polish shops, spyguy's 10 millions of EEs living on benefits, some posters complaining of hearing too many people speaking in foreign languages etc. I have to admit it is better now than it was. 

What are you actually on about. This place really cracks me up sometimes. 

[kzb]

54 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

From the financial times

Britain’s productivity crisis has entered a new phase with the overall efficiency of the economy being held back by a surge in low-value work.

<EDIT>

Following the financial crisis, many organisations made a welcome change in previous practices.

Rather than making valued staff redundant, they reduced hours, allowed unpaid leave and made other flexible adaptations so they could retain these staff for when the good times returned.

I think this is a welcome development in the work environment and is something to be encouraged.

Also, like I've said before, it is a miracle anything whatsoever gets done in Britain.

This morning the M6 was closed yet again.  Probably the M6 is closed somewhere on its length several days a week on average.   Yesterday Northern Rail cancelled hundreds of services.