Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[crouch]

4 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

are now 'unhinged'

"Many" of them "almost" unhinged - yes.

[sbn]

Not long to go now..... soon be free!

[dances with sheeple]

6 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said:

I think so, yes. But no shortcuts. It would need to spend a decade in preparation to join; meeting all sorts of membership criteria. What is unlikely is a separate region of a current/former member state, becoming independent and retaining membership.

Can`t see the EU hanging together that long TBH, the prospect of Scotland totally alone will be even more scary to most voters IMO.

[Chunketh]

1 minute ago, dances with sheeple said:

Can`t see the EU hanging together that long TBH, the prospect of Scotland totally alone will be even more scary to most voters IMO.

The idea of the EU ceasing to exist should scare the shit out of everyone. Don't forget where we were less than 80 years ago.

Something has to fill the vacuum that would be left in its collapse. Given the populist tone of late, it wont end well.

[rockerboy]

8 minutes ago, slawek said:

Humans are simple creatures, it is beyond why we chose to organise each other in the competing fraction, which fight and kill each other. No side really gain much apart from few at the top who satisfy their ill ambitions. 

The only simple creatures are those that ignore 4000 years of human history 

Happiness is being in a stable law abiding democracy, a freedom to live and say as you choose.

 

The human condition has never evolved from a "survival of the fittest" outlook. You could say that we are all fighting against oursleves, and are bound to it.

Some states have tried to change this - most recent is this 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_re-education_camps 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/50843797

 

Its not long ago that this was normal

https://www.berliner-mauer-gedenkstaette.de/en/todesopfer-240.html

 

Its a lot easier to say what is not happiness - the ability of some other agency to assert over the individual on a whim of their chosing - no matter how cruel - to control you.  

 

 

 

 

[winkie]

38 minutes ago, slawek said:

Not very well defined term. In general people more happier, in particularly safer, healthier, with better access to food/water, enjoying life with families and friends.  

Humans are simple creatures, it is beyond why we chose to organise each other in the competing fraction, which fight and kill each other. No side really gain much apart from few at the top who satisfy their ill ambitions. 

People need people......they tend to prefer people they deem are similar to themselves.

[dances with sheeple]

1 minute ago, Chunketh said:

The idea of the EU ceasing to exist should scare the shit out of everyone. Don't forget where we were less than 80 years ago.

Something has to fill the vacuum that would be left in its collapse. Given the populist tone of late, it wont end well.

How about a number of countries who control their own laws and borders cooperating peacefully? It was the advent of nuclear weapons that woke people up to the fact that you don`t go walking into other people`s countries with your tanks in front of you, not the EU, the EU is there basically to benefit big banks and corps.

[slawek]

7 minutes ago, crouch said:

This is the motherhood and apple pie argument which no-one could object to but where does that blessed artefact, the EU, fit into all this miasma of delight?

I think the EU moves us closer to the stated goal because it

1. makes life easier as it harmonises different regulation and laws, removes barriers etc. (EU laws)

2. provides mechanisms to balance different interests across the EU without a need to resolve to violence (EU Council and Parliament)

3. increases cooperation across continent, which allows a more efficient use of resources (different organisations and funds)

4. levels the living standards in the EU by redistributing capital more equally between different regions  (EU law, budgets, funds, FOM)

This is what comes to my mind now, I've probably missed a few things.     

[winkie]

17 minutes ago, sbn said:

Not long to go now..... soon be free!

Have you not always been free......you would soon know about it if you were not......tied then released only to be tied again, to something else.

[Chunketh]

7 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said:

How about a number of countries who control their own laws and borders cooperating peacefully? It was the advent of nuclear weapons that woke people up to the fact that you don`t go walking into other people`s countries with your tanks in front of you, not the EU, the EU is there basically to benefit big banks and corps.

How many of the 27 have nukes? 1.

I hope your optimism is proved correct. Given the toxic environment in which politics sits at the moment, I don't have the same happy feeling about it all.

Be careful what you wish for.

[rockerboy]

Just now, slawek said:

I think the EU moves us closer to the stated goal because

You missed the main gain of a united (and isolated from UK/USA) EU - an entity that makes it a lot easier for Russia and China to control - Mackinder's heartland theory never went away. 

https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/what-is-the-heartland-theory.html

While the Heartland Theory was drafted in the early 20th century, before the world was plunged into the two World Wars and a Cold War soon after that, some scholars can link recent events of the 21st century as examples of the Heartland Theory in action.

Based on Mackinder’s map, China is a constituent of the World-Island as are other major global powers including the EU, India, and Russia.

In recent years, China’s influence in countries of the World-Island has been on an upward trend, with the country using economic support to gain patronage and loyalty from the countries. Some see China's prominence in international affairs as culminating with the country being the global power.

China needed to first emerge as the largest economy in Asia-Europe, before it eventually surpasses the United States as the global superpower, fulfilling what Mackinder stated: “who rules the World-Island commands the world.”

 

 

 

  

[slawek]

8 minutes ago, rockerboy said:

The only simple creatures are those that ignore 4000 years of human history 

Happiness is being in a stable law abiding democracy, a freedom to live and say as you choose.

 

The human condition has never evolved from a "survival of the fittest" outlook. You could say that we are all fighting against oursleves, and are bound to it.

Some states have tried to change this - most recent is this 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_re-education_camps 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/50843797

 

Its not long ago that this was normal

https://www.berliner-mauer-gedenkstaette.de/en/todesopfer-240.html

 

Its a lot easier to say what is not happiness - the ability of some other agency to assert over the individual on a whim of their chosing - no matter how cruel - to control you.  

 

 

 

 

Humanity is older than 4000 years unless you are one of those Christians taking the Bible literally.

You are never free to live and say what you choose. This is not even desired. The life is more complicated, it is a delicate balance.

A "survival of the fittest" has been long ago discredited as a viable way for the human society. If you still believe it is the right way you than you are the reason why we can make progress.  The human civilization is changing much faster than the evolution timescale. The genetic selection, especially through violence, has long lost its purpose.  

[winkie]

26 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said:

Can`t see the EU hanging together that long TBH, the prospect of Scotland totally alone will be even more scary to most voters IMO.

Would you like the union to break up?....how would that benefit you?

Most would rather Scotland remained part of the team.....they can see a carrot and I can understand why they might resent being beaten by a stick......most out of choice do not choose to be alone including us.

Who will we be attaching ourselves to?

[rockerboy]

12 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said:

How about a number of countries who control their own laws and borders cooperating peacefully? It was the advent of nuclear weapons that woke people up to the fact that you don`t go walking into other people`s countries with your tanks in front of you, not the EU, the EU is there basically to benefit big banks and corps.

The people as you alude to,  mean nothing . The proles have always been expendable in war.

What is more likely, Is that nuclear weapons limited leaders making war decisions because the bombs would be falling in the leader's very own back gardens "ruining the roses".

The message "we must never forget" is very much a message for our leaders really

[slawek]

17 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said:

How about a number of countries who control their own laws and borders cooperating peacefully? It was the advent of nuclear weapons that woke people up to the fact that you don`t go walking into other people`s countries with your tanks in front of you, not the EU, the EU is there basically to benefit big banks and corps.

You underestimate people's stupidity. They have managed to kill 120mln (two UKs) in only the last two WW.

[rockerboy]

8 minutes ago, slawek said:

Humanity is older than 4000 years unless you are one of those Christians taking the Bible literally.

You are never free to live and say what you choose. This is not even desired. The life is more complicated, it is a delicate balance.

A "survival of the fittest" has been long ago discredited as a viable way for the human society. If you still believe it is the right way you than you are the reason why we can make progress.  The human civilization is changing much faster than the evolution timescale. The genetic selection, especially through violence, has long lost its purpose.  

I think we are talking about differnt things - you want to dream about what could be (all very nice I'm sure), whilst I would rather we dealt with the today's reality.

It is only recently that Russia invaded Crimea - that is the real world we live in today

Things done to others in wartime are terrifying -  In history, there are many examples where the invading army were encouraged to kill he men and rape women to make them pregnant.

It is a lot harder for the children of the victors to be rejected - which makes it easier for a population to be subdued 

But hey ho - you live in your ivory tower if you want to

Edited December 20, 2019 by rockerboy

[slawek]

24 minutes ago, winkie said:

People need people......they tend to prefer people they deem are similar to themselves.

In the current world you as likely to find someone similar on other end of the world as in your vicinity. 

[winkie]

6 minutes ago, slawek said:

In the current world you as likely to find someone similar on other end of the world as in your vicinity. 

Very true......

 

[Simhadri]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/20/britain-eu-can-agree-trade-deal-end-2020-goodwill-says-geoffrey/

As if EU is having great goodwill with UK now.

Sugar coated tongues will start dancing in new year.

[slawek]

3 minutes ago, rockerboy said:

I think we are talking about differnt things - you want to dream about what could be (all very nice I'm sure), whilst I would rather we dealt with the today's reality.

It is only recently that Russia invaded Crimea - that is the real world we live in today

I've only stated that the EU is a step in the right direction, which is a better life for all of us. How to handle the current geopolitical problems is a different issue.

Russia is an example where a nationalism leads, they had an empire, lost it, now resentful and try to reassert themselves with violence building their military power. The EU tried to engage them but Putin doesn't trust the West, the USA didn't help here by playing their empire game.  All screwed by the ambitions of domination.  

[jonb2]

18 minutes ago, rockerboy said:

You missed the main gain of a united (and isolated from UK/USA) EU - an entity that makes it a lot easier for Russia and China to control - Mackinder's heartland theory never went away. 

https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/what-is-the-heartland-theory.html

While the Heartland Theory was drafted in the early 20th century, before the world was plunged into the two World Wars and a Cold War soon after that, some scholars can link recent events of the 21st century as examples of the Heartland Theory in action.

Based on Mackinder’s map, China is a constituent of the World-Island as are other major global powers including the EU, India, and Russia.

In recent years, China’s influence in countries of the World-Island has been on an upward trend, with the country using economic support to gain patronage and loyalty from the countries. Some see China's prominence in international affairs as culminating with the country being the global power.

China needed to first emerge as the largest economy in Asia-Europe, before it eventually surpasses the United States as the global superpower, fulfilling what Mackinder stated: “who rules the World-Island commands the world.”

 

 

 

  

The EU will be better off without us. It is the UK that will succumb to Chinese influence first. Merely a numbers game.

https://www.moneyexpert.com/news/steel-crisis-uk-fire-blocking-eu-trade-defences/

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3518278/UK-blocked-EU-bid-raise-China-steel-tariff-protected-industry-cheap-imports.html

I agree it's a major threat. Mackinder's theory judges conventional warfare and borders were more impenetrable then. Taking into account aircraft, drones, cyber attacks and info-wars now.

NATO is looking very shaky.

[Chunketh]

15 minutes ago, slawek said:

You underestimate people's stupidity. They have managed to kill 120mln (two UKs) in only the last two WW.

History is most definitely not on the side of reason.

That is not to say that conflict will happen but wishing for the destruction of something that has demonstrably helped avoid it, simply to vindicate your own political point of view is short sighted. Especially in the current environment, where populism reigns supreme. 

[winkie]

If we can buy goods (and services) from the other side of the world and all the extra energy that would entail, I am sure Europe can sell what they have to offer to the rest of the world......always be plenty of new people that want new stuff.

[rockerboy]

1 minute ago, winkie said:

If we can buy goods (and services) from the other side of the world and all the extra energy that would entail, I am sure Europe can sell what they have to offer to the rest of the world......always be plenty of new people that want new stuff.

Hey Winkie - Did a check and there's not much of a transport cost difference between the shipping from China when compared to Europe. That transport cost difference is more than made up when you include the cheaper manufacturing cost in China.

I've heard it said, that it is cheaper for a washing machine to be delivered from a manufacturer to a store, than the delivery cost charged by the shop to get it from the store to the buyer's house.

https://www.movehub.com/advice/international-container-shipping-costs/

A 20ft container can hold:

 - 50-60 fridges or
 - 100 washing machines or
 - 400 flat-screen TVs or
 - 200 full-sized mattresses or
 - 48,000 bananas

[winkie]

Cheaper is not always better....we want workable regulation that can be enforced to ensure peace of mind that products, food and services we buy and use are ethical, of quality and are safe.....we are not the wild west, anything goes when the whistle blows.