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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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HOLA441
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HOLA442
18 minutes ago, copydude said:

I think our relationship with Germany has been patchy since 1914 hasn't it?

And now they're threatening to disrupt our food supplies again. 

 

Don't Waste copy.jpg

The only people trying to starve the British people are British. Fifth columnists like the ERG.

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Voices out of the Commission today saying they stand shoulder to shoulder with ROI etc...but no going back on yesterday's stating the obvious presser.

I think the Commission are saying to ROI, we back you in any event, but you should be aware that if you won't bend on the backstop you have to deal with the consequences, and that'll be border checks.

Just make it a ten year deadline for talks on the border. The GFA only took two years.

Edited by thehowler
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3 minutes ago, thehowler said:

Voices out of the Commission today saying they stand shoulder to shoulder with ROI etc...but no going back on yesterday's stating the obvious presser.

I think the Commission are saying to ROI, we back you in any event, but you should be aware that if you won't bend on the backstop you have to deal with the consequences, and that'll be border checks.

Just make it a ten year deadline for talks on the border. The GFA only took two years.

The consequences are a United Eire, which will suit both Eire and the EU.

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8 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Do you think Scotland has ever had control over the UK currency, I cannot think of any time when policy was adjusted because of any concern over Scotland's requirements.  The really big question for Scotland would be whether to accept a share of the UK's debt, legally they do not have to and it would quickly become the central negotiation issue if Scotland ever votes for independence    

Whether there needed to be border controls would depend on our exit agreement with the EU.  If the there is a trade border there will be border controls. 

 

 

 

Just as the EU would demand the money and the backstop as preconditions to any inevitable talks in the event we left without a deal - one of the many reasons why I think we can't/won't - I guess the UK would do the same with Scotland on the debt.

It feels almost too silly to talk about, like much of the Brexit process.

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1 hour ago, kzb said:

Yes everyone please note.

The recent Macron/Merkel session was all about further integration. 

Most definitely not rowing back from it, or re-imagining the EU etc.  Not a bit of it.  Ever Closer Union is still the policy and, if anything, they want to speed it up.

Just wanted to make sure everyone noticed that.

Have you noticed that Macron's vision of ever closer union is an anathema to Germany. Or that we had an opt out from it.

There is no foreseeable prospect of the EU moving towards ever closer union, nothing will happen until a there is a new shared vision of the future that all 27 can buy into. You can probably check back in ten years time to see if there has been any progress.

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8 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

The consequences are a United Eire, which will suit both Eire and the EU.

Who will pick up the £10bn a year subsidy NI gets from the UK. Who will explain to people in NI they now have to pay 50 euro to see a GP, 70 euro a night to stay in hospital and 100 euro to go to A&E if they earn more than 14000 euro a year - and those charges even apply to kids aged 7 and over. Or the fact inheritance tax is 33% on any inheritance you leave to a grandkid or nephew or niece or sibling as the tax free threshold (and its one threshold for life covering all inheritances!) is only 32k euro - and only 16k euro if you leave anything to someone who isn't a close relative. Compare that to £325k plus in the UK - and that is per estate.

As with Scottish independence - the devil may be in the detail! And the Republic - given its massive national debt - might struggle to fund NI to the lifestyle it has been used to in the UK.

When they see the detail the people of NI might not be so keen - and they almost all keep FOM anyway as they are entitled to Irish citizenship anyway.

Edited by MARTINX9
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2 minutes ago, thehowler said:

Just as the EU would demand the money and the backstop as preconditions to any inevitable talks in the event we left without a deal - one of the many reasons why I think we can't/won't - I guess the UK would do the same with Scotland on the debt.

It feels almost too silly to talk about, like much of the Brexit process.

There was a legal basis for the EU exit payment.

There legal position with regard to Scotland's responsibility for UK is clear, there isn't any. There would no doubt be some sort of compromise in the end but this would be in return for a more favourable overall deal for Scotland. 

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7 minutes ago, thehowler said:

It'll suit the people currently in NI too otherwise you won't get it. And if it suits them it'll suit the rest of the UK.

So everybody's happy.

The biggest factor preventing re unification happening will probably be the diverging living standards between the RoI and NI. The turnaround in fortunes over the past 30 years has been amazing, and reunification would present an even bigger economic challenge than it was for Germany 

The Irish have already noticed this 

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/united-ireland-would-see-living-standards-in-republic-fall-by-15-1.3629748

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26 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Have you noticed that Macron's vision of ever closer union is an anathema to Germany. Or that we had an opt out from it.

There is no foreseeable prospect of the EU moving towards ever closer union, nothing will happen until a there is a new shared vision of the future that all 27 can buy into. You can probably check back in ten years time to see if there has been any progress.

Macron is the personification of 'mission creep'.

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HOLA4420

 

Quote

 

Rees-Mogg says May should close parliament temporarily if necessary to stop bill blocking no deal

Q: If no deal is taken off the table, will you encourage MPs to back May’s deal?

Rees-Mogg says no deal cannot be taken off the table without the connivance of the government. He says if the Commons passes a no-deal bill, there are other mechanism available to the government. It could prorogue parliament, he says.

Guardian

 

Looks like a last desperate throw of the dice to try and win.

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4 minutes ago, rollover said:

 

Looks like a last desperate throw of the dice to try and win.

It does highlight issues with our constitution - and the situation whereby parliament and the Government aren't in agreement. As laws and prerogatives are exercised by the PM and Ministers via the Queen - not by parliament. So while they cannot enact laws not passed by parliament they can refuse to implement its decisions.

Rarely do you get such divergence - as the PM normally commands the support of parliament. She does of course in terms of confidence but not on Brexit. So its rather unchartered territory.

Edited by MARTINX9
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37 minutes ago, MARTINX9 said:

Who will pick up the £10bn a year subsidy NI gets from the UK. Who will explain to people in NI they now have to pay 50 euro to see a GP, 70 euro a night to stay in hospital and 100 euro to go to A&E if they earn more than 14000 euro a year - and those charges even apply to kids aged 7 and over. Or the fact inheritance tax is 33% on any inheritance you leave to a grandkid or nephew or niece or sibling as the tax free threshold (and its one threshold for life covering all inheritances!) is only 32k euro - and only 16k euro if you leave anything to someone who isn't a close relative. Compare that to £325k plus in the UK - and that is per estate.

Yes, all true, which suggests that a United Ireland would have to (at least initially) be a soft United Ireland with the NI Assembly continuing to operate and having a lot of devolved powers on tax and spending rather than fully integrating into the RoI systems.

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53 minutes ago, thehowler said:

Voices out of the Commission today saying they stand shoulder to shoulder with ROI etc...but no going back on yesterday's stating the obvious presser.

I think the Commission are saying to ROI, we back you in any event, but you should be aware that if you won't bend on the backstop you have to deal with the consequences, and that'll be border checks.

Just make it a ten year deadline for talks on the border. The GFA only took two years.

Absolutely. If they made it 10 years it’s very hard to argue against that. But then maybe that’s the underlying goal (no deal).

tick tock

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3 hours ago, thehowler said:

Barnier not letting up the pressure on ROI this morning...means if Varadkar doesn't get the WA he'll have to sit down for talks with the UK - with EU Commission at table as its their border.

Natch the Commission are watching very closely to see if the Cooper amendment is Bercow-selected and passes, not that the actions of remain MPs has any influence on current UK govt/EU negotiations...

 

Didn’t I say that a couple of weeks ago and it was poo pooed? Not pointing any fingers ?

Edited by Dave Beans
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