2016 Predictions Thread

[Killer Bunny]

Most are bearish commodities.

Adding to my -5 to -10% HPs 2016...

Major rally across commodity space - oil, gold, copper, uranium, nat gas etc and Em Mkts shares (espec Russia and Brazil)

Major rally in Euro and Yen. Major fall in US$.

Major fall in Developed Mkt stocks.

Sizeable rally in long term govt bonds ie long term rates stay low and falling.

Much slower econ growth and maybe outright Recession in many Western countries. US yield curve flattening quickly last few months and heading for inversion...

QE4 announced.

Edited December 30, 2015 by Killer Bunny

[Ash4781]

NASA are closely monitoring el Nino. Reports are it is still incredibly strong and looks to continued weather effects in 2016.

Maybe Tesco to be involved in a hideous complexity deal to take it private.

[AC44]

£ will drop below 1.40 $.

Fed rates at 2% in the end of 2016.

[The Masked Tulip]

NASA are closely monitoring el Nino. Reports are it is still incredibly strong and looks to continued weather effects in 2016.

Maybe Tesco to be involved in a hideous complexity deal to take it private.

Some el Ninos have lasted several years. I thought it was a kind of seasonal thing but, having read up on them recently, they can go on for years.

[R K]

They should alter that as I've publically altered it - in 2009 and 2013. Prices, however, did fall nationally c 25% in the 2008 crash. Not far off the 40%. Turns out my 40% was too little - if Capitalism were allowed to happen.

I said prices would rise with bailouts and rate slashing. I said they would be flat to down after the rally in 2009 to 10 (I was wrong about PCL). I said they'd rise into the GE, the day HTB was announced on Budget 2013.

Been mildly bearish since early 2015. (Possibly earlier, can't recall exactly.) Strongly bearish for months.

So you didnt make that prediction in October 2010? 40-50% nominal falls?

[R K]

Most are bearish commodities.

Adding to my -5 to -10% HPs 2016...

Major rally across commodity space - oil, gold, copper, uranium, nat gas etc and Em Mkts shares (espec Russia and Brazil)

Major rally in Euro and Yen. Major fall in US$.

Major fall in Developed Mkt stocks.

Sizeable rally in long term govt bonds ie long term rates stay low and falling.

Much slower econ growth and maybe outright Recession in many Western countries. US yield curve flattening quickly last few months and heading for inversion...

QE4 announced.

So you concurrently believe in a major commodities rally

& a major fall in developed equity markets

& a fall in long term bond yields.....

Just so I can continue to bet the opposite with increased confidence.

US yield curve is very bullish for the economy and equities, so not sure what you base your guesses on.

Edited December 30, 2015 by R K

[EssKay]

I know many are being a little jokey on this thread as with any threads that discuss the possible crash in house prices.

But is there anyone left on HPC that still thinks HPC will happen? :-)

or

Has it just become a " I am pi***d off house prices are so high" forum

For me, it's a "dose of reality" forum. Many switched on posters here who haven't drunk the cool aid and can see the state of the world for what it is - a complete cluster****

As for my predictions, if we somehow manage to avoid a major escalation of the war in the Middle East, I reckon this is the year we could finally see another major market crash - possibly "the big one"

[oracle]

Oil soars on unrest in the KSA.

might be right on this.

iran(+ proxies) v saudi arabia(+ proxies) war in the offing.

result.....iran beats saudi arabia, but the west/isreal beats iran.turkey moves in to pick up the caliphate.

middle east oil supply comes to shuddering halt....brief period of $500 oil, then a collapse...sort of like 1973 iranian oil crisis on steroids.

putin lapping it up.

uncle sam goes independent

europe caught in a vice.(with the exception of norway and UK).

turkey goes for the neo-ottoman empire

western interest rates to rise more significantly than predicted.

sector rotation from bonds/property into "real" stuff.

Edited December 30, 2015 by oracle

[B63]

Well lets hope 2016 is the beginning of a much needed correction. What a totally screwed up state of affairs that an entire generation is having to put up with the unnecessary burden of high house prices, a problem that could be swiftly dealt with if there was any great will to do so.

The fact that basic shelter is being speculated on and rises trumped up by the majority of the media is just so wrong.

2016 and the 'best' offered to the priced out is a 25% share of a studio in Kent that will take the rest of your working life to pay for.

[Silverfinger]

It is going to be the warmest year globally since the records began.

...

middle east oil supply comes to shuddering halt....brief period of $500 oil, then a collapse...sort of like 1973 iranian oil crisis on steroids.

...

Interesting scenario. Finally, the 2016 oil calls I bought in 2011 (or so) would recover some value... What would gold do? Maybe go to $3,000 for a short time, then get permanently stuck above $2,000?

[Bear Hug]

2016 predictions for areas I sometimes monitor:

North West / East Midlands - flat

South East - flat but no transactions

London - small drop

I don't expect btl changes to do their job quickly: have not seen any remotely reasonable prices in Reading yet since the tax changes announcements.

[200p]

Donald Trump is President.

Well since posting, odds have narrowed 7/1 to 9/2

[BubbleBlower]

Things will be shuffled about here and there. Despite some apparent ups and downs stagnation under any other name will continue.

Britain will remain within the EU as the potential for moaning about bloody foreigners will be severely reduced outside of it.

HPI will not really increase over the year as a whole, despite periods of glorious excitement and rampant despair. Any real crash will be avoided by financial shenanigans of the utmost quality.

In short, much like the previous five years, not a lot will actually happen, despite the appearance of quite a lot being done very visibly by rather important people. Word economy is to ******ed up to recover, too large to fail.

[Digsby]

The "people's" predictions for 2016:

http://home.bt.com/lifestyle/money/mortgages-bills/peoples-2016-predictions-for-house-prices-interest-rates-and-more-11364033284643

[Killer Bunny]

Most are bearish commodities.

Adding to my -5 to -10% HPs 2016...

Major rally across commodity space - oil, gold, copper, uranium, nat gas etc and Em Mkts shares (espec Russia and Brazil)

Major rally in Euro and Yen. Major fall in US$.

Major fall in Developed Mkt stocks.

Sizeable rally in long term govt bonds ie long term rates stay low and falling.

Much slower econ growth and maybe outright Recession in many Western countries. US yield curve flattening quickly last few months and heading for inversion...

QE4 announced.

So far pretty good...

[crashmonitor]

On ‎29‎/‎12‎/‎2015 at 0:44 PM, crashmonitor said:

HPI 8% (may be the final blow out on the back of zirp and cheap oil)

FTSE 100 6500 (but possibly two capitulations to 5000 on the back of Brent at $30 and pre- Brexit nerves)

Pound $1.45

Gold $1100 supported by geopolitics not least Brexit and continued Middle East unrest

Brexit narrowly averted

GDP 2.3% ( possibly the loss of 0.5% because of Brext fears, would have been 2.8% on the back of cheap oil)

CPI 0.5%

Base Rates 0.5% (to try and close out HPI after the horse has bolted)

Brent $50 (picking up after Spring lows)

Not an easy year to forecast but I have got my HPI and GDP forecasts pretty spot on for several years now.

Rather came unstuck on Brexit re. the currency but most predictions came out correct, could have been a stonking resuly without Brexit, straight tens even)

HPI 7/10 (may come in at 6%)

FTSE 7/10 (correctly forecast the two capitulations in the spring and summer though they came in at 5,500)

Pound 2/10 ( the Brexit factor)

Gold 10/10

Brexit 0/10

GDP 9/10

CPI 3/10 (Brexit again)

Base Rate 5/10

Brent 10/10

Edited December 22, 2016 by crashmonitor

[Fairyland]

29 minutes ago, crashmonitor said:

Rather came unstuck on Brexit re. the currency but most predictions came out correct, could have been a stonking resuly without Brexit, straight tens even)

HPI 7/10 (may come in at 6%)

FTSE 7/10 (correctly forecast the two capitulations in the spring and summer though they came in at 5,500)

Pound 2/10 ( the Brexit factor)

Gold 10/10

Brexit 0/10

GDP 9/10

CPI 3/10 (Brexit again)

Base Rate 5/10

Brent 10/10

What are your HPI predictions for 2017?

[crashmonitor]

10 minutes ago, Fairyland said:

What are your HPI predictions for 2017?

 It appears to be in trouble in the Home Counties, peaking in the Southern Midlands and has yet to touch parts of Northern England which are still sub 2007 peak; so never been more difficult to call. Because a correction is expected my guess is it probably wont happen. May be +3%, But i'll think more on it when we get a 2017 predictions thread. Sold/ for sale ratios are the highest I have ever seen for this time of year so I doubt it is about to crash. Need more stock to come onto the market.

Edited December 22, 2016 by crashmonitor

[doomed]

On 12/27/2015 at 10:34 PM, doomed said:

Bitcoin $1500+

There's still time.

[Digsby]

On 28/12/2015 at 11:06 PM, goldbug9999 said:

Wonderpup will post 457 topics all rehashing the same old sh1te about how progress destroys economic value.

Ooh - so close...

[GreenDevil]

2017 - weather will be shite again, it will be the warmest, wettest and dullest, since records began. UK battered by storms from jan-may. Andy M will win Wimbledon again. Andy M will win BBC SpP again. 

On the bright side we will see interest rates at 3%, and a 25% crash in house prices- ahhh such wishful thinking. 

[Fromage Frais]

Trump will unleash a massive investment programme which will be bullish for some.

He will pull off a reverse Nixon and become best buddies with Russia to cause a cold war light with China.... Russian sanctions will be lifted.  Russians will see this as a reflection of their strength  but its actually a reflection of how small a threat they are in comparison to china.

Yellen will raise rates regardless as a)  it may screw with trump so a good excuse to do the right thing and b ) inflation caused by the spending binge.

Mark Carney will see that the game is up and will start coming out with more "i care" malarkey oblivious that he was part of the problem.  He may resign before interest rates are required to rise under the guise of not willing to harm the poor etc/fallout.

Europe will go further right and it will get nasty and attacks will continue.........leading to

Article 50 will be called but whilst we pontificate doing the right thing a European country will just leave either the EU or Euro........(longer term) leading to a US/UK backed EU alternative trade zone which will then tempt members across killing the EU off isolating china etc.  

House prices will start the year like this one as the rates are too low to force hands..........Then around April people will be concentrating on BTL and those properties will fall 20% in short time.    Family homes will stay firm(ish)/off the market unless a BTL property, by the end of 2017 you may consider buying two flats to knock through / reversing an HMO given the fall in those types of properties and the stubborn vendors of nice family homes.

By early 2018the crash in BTL will be in full swing and the pressures of inflation caused by the USA and global events will finally move the hands of the BOE playing catch up.  We will then have the HPC in family and nicer homes which may even be nastier than the BTL property crash as it will cause a nasty little recession.....those who can may go work in projects in the USA.

The recession will also come hand in hand with a proxy conflict possibly North Korea as China will either suck it up or aggressively try and pull others into its sphere of influence.

Gold down and then up up once things start kicking off

Apartments - Hmos - ex btl = 20% down  end  2017

Family homes - 5% outside London -10% inside end 2017

 

 

Edited December 22, 2016 by Fromage Frais

[Digsby]

On 28/12/2015 at 1:38 PM, Digsby said:

In Q1, house prices will increase by 2%. Sales volumes to OO's will fall but this will be masked by sales by prescient (to be generous) BTLers to those trying to beat the SDLT hike. Annual HPI will be running at 7.2% and ramping will be rife, with the ONS prediction of 6% HPI during 2016 touted a lot.

 

 

 

 

In April, sales volumes will fall off a cliff, and prices will drop by 1.9%, wiping out all of the gains in Q1. The rampers will go quiet. During the rest of Q2, prices will remain static as sellers refuse to drop prices further, leaving annual HPI at 3.5% by the end of the quarter. Talk will be of "house price growth slowing" and the ONS will slash their forecast for 2016 to 4%.

 

 

 

 

 

During Q3, panic will start to spread through the BTL market and those needing to get out of the market before 2017 will start slashing asking prices. Prices will decline by a further 2% during the quarter and annual HPI will be at at -1.32% in September 2016. The ONS will slash their forecast again to 2%, but they'll be starting to look a bit stupid to the common man. Osborne will expand HTB.

 

 

 

 

 

In Q4, talk of an impending crash will start to go mainstream and we will start to see a full blown HPC, with price declines accelerating to 3% on the quarter. Annual HPI will be at -4.98% at the end of the year. Official predictions for 2017 will be 1% HPI, but everybody will know 2017 will be carnage.

 

This is fun. I was being deliberately bearish here (yeah, yeah).

The April sales volume prediction turned out right, but I'd totally over estimated the intelligence of your average BTLer in discounting the idea that BTL sales would spike in March, and they did meaning although the magnitude of the fall was greater than I expected, it was mostly in comparison to the month before.

Sales volumes are still way down though after April, but the effect on prices has been nothing like I expected, so the "negative growth" I predicted (hoped for) has not happened.

HTB was not expanded, the mortgage guarantee scheme has been allowed to elapse, a good thing, but unexpected.

An impending crash has started to go mainstream in Q4 though, with the likes of Henry Prior talking about it.

I'm way off the annual HPI by the end of the year. Mainstream predictions for 2017 are 2% against my forecast 1%.

Apart from letting desire interfere with logic, I see the weakness in my prediction consisting of underestimating the scale of the stamp duty rush and the resilience of prices in the aftermath.

I reckon we're about 3 months behind the curve I plotted back then.

Who's going to start a 2017 predictions thread?

[jiltedjen]

On 12/27/2015 at 8:19 PM, jiltedjen said:

 

A royal dies

they have a cold, i count that as pretty accurate 

[200p]

On 27/12/2015 at 9:01 PM, 200p said:

Donald Trump is President.

Ha Ha I was RIGHT!!!!