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House Price Crash Forum


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About AC44

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  1. it would be interesting if we hear the government pushing the envelope to BoE about this mess. That would be a game-changer..
  2. BoE is playing a dangerous game. They are not making any moves because they probably want to put pressure to the government. However, if £ continues to slide, then the inflation impact will be huge on the disposable income of tenants.. Lets hope PM send the MPC packing and replaces them with economists who will not subsidise asset holders again.
  3. Thought I should ressurect this. What is the floor of this crash? And at what point will BoE intervene?
  4. inflations is not low. Do not forget that CPI -does not include housing costs which is the main cost for most households -it is an average inflation. During 2003-20013 ONS showed that CPI for low incomes was almost 150% more than the average CPI -Essentials inflation is much higher than the CPI. When CPI reached 5% , essentials inflation index calculted that essentials inflation was near 8%..
  5. whisky prices are crazy. Big big bubble..
  6. So the job numbers for the Fed were quite good. If US economy continoues this way and is not impacted by Brexit, I wonder where the £ will stop when Fed raises rates again in 2016. Contemplating pushing money from ISA to Euro or Dollar account. Yes I will crystallise losses but I expect worse in the future.
  7. It all depends how the next months will play: -Labour is going down the drain. There will be probably be two L parties in the next months -Tories. Now not sure but AL is a BTL and TM is a known quantity. They will try to reach for the UKIP voters. What will they offer reg housing? Will they change anything regarding BTL? Will they introduce HTB4 or will they push for Carney to walk the plank? So trigger Article 50 or go for elections? What will happen with Scotland? There is a lot of uncertainty in the next months. The market will probably stall (and decrease) depending on the above outcomes. The BoE cant do anything anymore. QE is not effective and 0.50% decrease in rates will not be passed to mortgage holders. Bringing the base rate to 0% will decimate the bank shares. There is no way a bank can be profitable at so level. What worries me is a possibility of capital controls and negative rates...
  8. So at what point does the BoE stop supporting the housing ponzi scheme and starts defending the £? Is it when it reaches parity with $? Is at 1.10$? And at what point in time, does someone convert back to £ any $ or Euro? https://twitter.com/fathomcomment/status/750627740538310656
  9. Interesting to see what will happen to both parties in the next weeks. Anything can happen. Anyone who is thinking of buying better prepare themselves for sleepless nights..
  10. Really not sure what the hell happens now. One logic for the weakness of the £ is that they expect BoE to cut rates and start QE. We all know how much this ruined our economy few years ago. Surely they cannot "look-through" inflation again! And £ at 1.3 will kill our disposable income.
  11. You cant examine house prices in Scotland without taking into account Aberdeen. Brexit will add to the above since probably banks will cut credit. Only hope is if they are able to persuade EU to do a reverse Greenland. Then they might attrack people and stabilise prices?
  12. Not sure about that. If all parties implode then it might go the other way. The fact that no plan has been announced and both labour/cons are in pieces might have to force BoE to raise. Carney bought some time last week but the weekend has made the situarion worse with Labout going into piecea and no plan announced.
  13. The referendum is about our long term future. Short term events , no matter how sad, should never influence where we want our country to be in the future.
  14. I think specially in midlands/north there is a big gap between what the majority believe and what the main parties believe. Probably in the next elections, Labour will suffer the same fate of the Scottish Labour..
  15. Then explain to them that by voting Leave there is a big chance that rents /house prices will drop.
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