General Election 2015

[winkie]

At the end of the day a political party is only a 'name'.......it all comes down to the people in that party, how trustworthy, honest and transparent they are and the policies they promise to abide by.....pick a name, pick a party, all the same but different.......early days.

[The Knimbies who say No]

That's a fair question. But do you live in Great Grimsby? That's the only seat in the country where UKIP poll second, and the methodology of the polling has been subject to some criticism.

Maybe, just maybe they've some traction in Lincolnshire and East Anglia (where they've some council seats) but beware polling midterm. It says very little.

Simply incorrect, a November Survation poll in the South Thanet constituency of Laura Sandys (Tory incumbant who will not be seeking reelection in 2015) had UKIP in 2nd place on 30% behind Labour. Many other constituencies either have not been surveyed or the data is not public, so it is not known how frequently this situation occurs. It is hardly going to be hundreds of seats but given a few tens of seats is enough to make Cameron unelectable I'd suggest it could play a part in how the election pans out.

You didn't answer the question though. If your answer is "data is bad, and midterm polls are to be ignored", I feel entitled to say that's a copout worthy of Cameron himself. Ignorance is bliss.

[Harry Monk]

Basically, if you're happy with everything that has gone on over the last 15 years, then vote for more of the same.

[bearwithasorehead]

Simply incorrect, a November Survation poll in the South Thanet constituency of Laura Sandys (Tory incumbant who will not be seeking reelection in 2015) had UKIP in 2nd place on 30% behind Labour. Many other constituencies either have not been surveyed or the data is not public, so it is not known how frequently this situation occurs. It is hardly going to be hundreds of seats but given a few tens of seats is enough to make Cameron unelectable I'd suggest it could play a part in how the election pans out.

You didn't answer the question though. If your answer is "data is bad, and midterm polls are to be ignored", I feel entitled to say that's a copout worthy of Cameron himself. Ignorance is bliss.

Apologies for missing that. Interesting point made in the analysis to that poll:

78% of UKIP voters would not vote Conservative even if UKIP were not standing at all.

Still, it doesn't change the fact that it is unlikely UKIP would win any seats - perhaps apart from where Farage stands. In fact I'll put money on that.

Ignorance certainly is bliss if you don't understand the unreliability of polling mid-term. Have a looks at where Labour were in the 1980s and 1990s - well ahead of Thatcher and Major mid-term.

[John51]

Are any UKIP supporters here hoping that UKIP becomes a major party on the lines of liblabcon?

What I want is UKIP in > EU out > UKIP out.

[gf3]

Are any UKIP supporters here hoping that UKIP becomes a major party on the lines of liblabcon?

What I want is UKIP in > EU out > UKIP out.

+1

And then hopefully a party to appear that is worth voting for. The green party looks best at the moment. What has this come too.

What would it take to have a in/out vote at the next GE?

I genuinely believe that career politicians want to stay in the EU because of the increased job opportunity's for them and their kids. Politicians don't want to find themselves or their family having to stack shelves at tesco's

Edited January 1, 2014 by gf3

[Mrs Bear]

[The way I feel at the moment I would probably vote for the Monster Raving Loonies if they were fielding a candidate here.

[anonguest]

The truth is voting Labour achieves nothing. Voting or voting for the LibLabCon is the real wasted vote. Vote UKIP or for a local independent candidate.

Do they have 'independent' candidates???!!!

That was a bit tongue in cheek.

I don't know if I'm the only one to think/observe this but the UKIP could equally be renamed the Nigel Farage party - given that he seems to be the only public face of this party.

The party has grown in membership size has it not? It has a 'cabinet'? So where are all the other presumably well qualified and intelligent senior party bods? Why are they never on national TV?

OK. I grant you Farage is reasonably telegenic, undoubtedly educated and intelligent and articulate (with a fair 'gift of the gab' and art of 'riposte') and vocal - though perhaps to the point of giving the impression of being someone who likes the sound of his own voice too much.

BUT....to claim to be a mainstream and 'grown up' party that has ambitions for the Westminster, it must start to show publicly that it is made up of many and not just one.

I appreciate and accept that it is likely the vast majority of the butchers, bakers and candlestick makers that comprise UKIP members and activists probably have no clue about the 'art' of presenting themselves well to the media. We forget that MP's and candidates in the mainstream parties are coached and groomed in this art by the resources of the party, before they are unleashed on the media.

UKIP need to ensure that those picked as candidates are thoroughly vetted (to weed out nutters) and given at least some 'training' in how to deal with the media. Then we might start to see some new faces and 'talent' appear and gradually become more familiar household names.

Does UKIP have policies that cover all manner of things of concern to the UK economy and way of life? Housing? Energy? Transport?

Then let's start hearing and seeing their designated spokespersons for those remits and not just Farage.

I suspect the reason we don't, yet, is that Farage himself (and party top brass) knows there is no one else in the party that comes anywhere near him in terms of ability to do this well? At some point they are going to have to start taking a chance and unleash their junior party bods on to the media.

[Bruce Banner]

Does UKIP have policies that cover all manner of things of concern to the UK economy and way of life? Housing? Energy? Transport?

They can select from the options, provided by the civil service, as well as anyone else.

[bonse]

labour. because I have a short memory.

not tory because I find posh twits offensive

not ukip because I think they are very offensive and nigel is a bully boy

not liberal because they will be wiped off the face of the earth at the next election so a wasted vote.

[Neverwhere]

I'm going to vote Green for the first time. Not because I am particularly Green (I like a pleasant environment as much as the next woman ). Not because I am a 'looser'. But because they are the only Party with the 3 policies required:

1. Land Value Tax

2. Full reserve banking

3. Citizens' Income

If anyone better (like the Liberals who really based on historical precedent should be doing this), changed their policy, I would vote for them.

Even Labour should really be doing it.

Tories though, I think they are just too f*cked up to even consider this would be a good thing for businesses and people, protecting their march back to feudal times instead.

+1

[John51]

[The way I feel at the moment I would probably vote for the Monster Raving Loonies if they were fielding a candidate here.

Can't remember the date but it was the first GE after the libs and the sdp merged to form the lib dems. Had a door knocker from the splinter (non merged) liberal party. Told him I was voting monster raving loony party. Oh he laughs, we were wondering whether to put them on the form or not. Turns out that in my constituency, the monsters got twice the vote of the liberal party.

[blobloblob]

Do they have 'independent' candidates???!!!

That was a bit tongue in cheek.

I don't know if I'm the only one to think/observe this but the UKIP could equally be renamed the Nigel Farage party - given that he seems to be the only public face of this party.

The party has grown in membership size has it not? It has a 'cabinet'? So where are all the other presumably well qualified and intelligent senior party bods? Why are they never on national TV?

OK. I grant you Farage is reasonably telegenic, undoubtedly educated and intelligent and articulate (with a fair 'gift of the gab' and art of 'riposte') and vocal - though perhaps to the point of giving the impression of being someone who likes the sound of his own voice too much.

BUT....to claim to be a mainstream and 'grown up' party that has ambitions for the Westminster, it must start to show publicly that it is made up of many and not just one.

I appreciate and accept that it is likely the vast majority of the butchers, bakers and candlestick makers that comprise UKIP members and activists probably have no clue about the 'art' of presenting themselves well to the media. We forget that MP's and candidates in the mainstream parties are coached and groomed in this art by the resources of the party, before they are unleashed on the media.

UKIP need to ensure that those picked as candidates are thoroughly vetted (to weed out nutters) and given at least some 'training' in how to deal with the media. Then we might start to see some new faces and 'talent' appear and gradually become more familiar household names.

Does UKIP have policies that cover all manner of things of concern to the UK economy and way of life? Housing? Energy? Transport?

Then let's start hearing and seeing their designated spokespersons for those remits and not just Farage.

I suspect the reason we don't, yet, is that Farage himself (and party top brass) knows there is no one else in the party that comes anywhere near him in terms of ability to do this well? At some point they are going to have to start taking a chance and unleash their junior party bods on to the media.

I think Paul Nuttall is worth listening to. Some woman whose name I forget too. In the main the media don't seem to keen on portraying UKIP as anything other than "Nigel Farage plus some nasty racist hangers-on" though.

[Quicken]

Green. LVT, CI, FRB, and council house building.

Cheers, Q

[The Knimbies who say No]

Apologies for missing that. Interesting point made in the analysis to that poll:

78% of UKIP voters would not vote Conservative even if UKIP were not standing at all.

Still, it doesn't change the fact that it is unlikely UKIP would win any seats - perhaps apart from where Farage stands. In fact I'll put money on that.

Ignorance certainly is bliss if you don't understand the unreliability of polling mid-term. Have a looks at where Labour were in the 1980s and 1990s - well ahead of Thatcher and Major mid-term.

Polling from 83-87 period. Quite volatile, as you might expect, although the greatest leads by either party seem to be recorded by the Gallup poll for the Telegraph. I can't comment on the reasons for that.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1983-1987

Here's a piece about the period, it cites some reasons for the unpopularity- defeat of miners in 1985 and some other stuff.

http://www.totalpolitics.com/history/333572/how-governments-recover-from-midterm-blues.thtml

Crucially the impetus for a recovery of electoral fortunes seems to be partially a strong rise in real wages in real terms in the years up to the election.

Major's term was somewhat affected by the fact he replaced Thatcher. Shortly after he became Tory leader Labour did not enjoy a lead and the polling remained close, with Major enjoying a lead at points:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-1987-1992

I'm not sure Cameron can take much comfort from Major's turnaround. Nothing is a sure fire thing of course, and the polls have closed on Labour in the weeks since the Autumn statement, but Cameron has hit work cut out, and that's without UKIP taking some votes from Tories.

[The Knimbies who say No]

I think Paul Nuttall is worth listening to. Some woman whose name I forget too. In the main the media don't seem to keen on portraying UKIP as anything other than "Nigel Farage plus some nasty racist hangers-on" though.

Diane James perhaps. I wrote to Nuttall a few months ago(he is my MEP) about UKIP's admittance of Brian Silvester, a criminal councillor. He never responded. That is a concern, and is a dealbreaker as far as giving them my vote goes. I could just about live with much of the clearly anti-HPC stuff in their manifesto in order to get an in/out EU referendum.

[blobloblob]

Diane James perhaps. I wrote to Nuttall a few months ago(he is my MEP) about UKIP's admittance of Brian Silvester, a criminal councillor. He never responded. That is a concern, and is a dealbreaker as far as giving them my vote goes. I could just about live with much of the clearly anti-HPC stuff in their manifesto in order to get an in/out EU referendum.

Shame about that. Maybe try tweeting it, so everybody can see?

@paulnuttallukip

[The Knimbies who say No]

Shame about that. Maybe try tweeting it, so everybody can see?

@paulnuttallukip

Did that in August a few times, sent it to Farage too:

‏@cheeznbreed 9:22 AM - 1 Aug 13

Convicted criminal @CllrBSilvester should not be in UKIP @Nigel_Farage @paulnuttallukip. @Conservatives, @LibDems @labourpress @BBCr4todayReply

@cheeznbreed 12 Aug

@GuidoFawkes There's an open goal concerning convicted criminal @CllrBSilvester's recent admittance to UKIP. Needs higher profile.

‏@cheeznbreed 13 Aug

@Timebandit_ @CllrBSilvester Talk about a vested interest. @GuidoFawkes we need a favour, @Nigel_Farage ignoring issue of criminal UKIPer.

Maybe it's the way I tell 'em. No-one seems to care. I don't know why. zzzzzzzz.

Edited January 2, 2014 by The B.L.T.

[Dorkins]

I am amazed that people don't tactically vote more. They did in the 90s.

What's the point in tactical voting when all you're going to do is trade one of the big three identical parties for one of the others?

The main three parties have given up trying to appeal to tens of millions of people and are trying to get into power by appealing to small but geographically concentrated demographic groups. We need a constitutional crisis to either scare the main parties back into responding to a wider audience or to allow new parties to enter Parliament. Voting UKIP/Green/other, spoiling the ballot or refusing to vote are all ways to bring this constitutional crisis closer.

[Dorkins]

Thanks for confirming my point. If you vote UKIP you are generally casting a vote that will count for Labour.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but even under FPTP only Labour votes count for Labour.

How other people choose to cast their votes is up to them.

[Dorkins]

20% on public payroll + 10% ethnic minority + 10% benefit lifers = Labour Party lock on power.

Where's the evidence that 100% of public sector workers vote Labour?

[Byron]

So many people I talk to are utterly fed up with the EU interference and want out.

Some feel that it is time to give the established parties a boot up the bum.

Remember the 'Bigot woman' that Gordon Brown clashed with?

The main parties have completely lost touch with people.

[pig]

I am voting for Liberty GB, the UKIP without the illeberal-left political correctness restrictions.

Paul Weston labelled a rascist or anyone else, by the mainstream politicos and media, for just wanting to preserve the culture and people of Britain.

Thats the beauty of a developed capitalist democracy - you get a choice of sh*t buckets to stick your head in.

I'm not entirely sure how believing babies will get their heads chopped off in Surbiton is going to help address any serious issues that Britain faces but I'm very persuaded by his suit and haircut. Much better than Farage's

[pig]

I'm going to vote Green for the first time. Not because I am particularly Green (I like a pleasant environment as much as the next woman ). Not because I am a 'looser'. But because they are the only Party with the 3 policies required:

1. Land Value Tax

2. Full reserve banking

3. Citizens' Income

If anyone better (like the Liberals who really based on historical precedent should be doing this), changed their policy, I would vote for them.

Even Labour should really be doing it.

Tories though, I think they are just too f*cked up to even consider this would be a good thing for businesses and people, protecting their march back to feudal times instead.

Sooo tempting in terms of shaking things up but not convinced by these yet:

1. Land Value Tax - yep love it because it says the entire system is broken and we need radical change….but would need 5 years of public debate and analysis before I trusted this as a viable solution.

2. Ditto

3. Well, again I sort of like what it implies, but I disagree with this one. Basically solving the housing issue should tend to solve the income issue too so it doesn't sound worth the effort. And on the face of it it just sounds inflationary and back to square one.

[FallingAwake]

The way I see it, voting for UKIP IS a tactical vote.

Sure, it might be handing Labour a victory this time round, but if UKIP's percentage of the votes is high enough, it will send a loud and clear message to the Conservatives.... that if they ever want to get elected again, they must give people the opportunity to decide whether they want to be In / Out of that "ever closer union" that is now looking very different from the EEC voted for in the 1970's.

If we claim to be a democracy, then really, it's only reasonable that the people should at least be asked! (Of course, technically we're a monarchy so the only opinion that actually matters is that of the Queen!)

That I see constant headlines on the BBC or The Telegraph suggesting that if people vote UKIP the UK will sink into the ocean after the sky has collapsed, and that millions of jobs will vanish into the ether, suggests that certain political groups (and their media / economic backers) are actually a little scared

Sorry, but if you vote for Labour or the Conservatives, you're essentially endorsing the status quo.

If you vote UKIP, you're at least saying to the two main parties, "Do something about this, or else."

Yes, it may be a protest vote for many... but if enough people protest "loudly" enough, things MIGHT change. If nobody protests, nothing changes.