General Election 2015

[Dorkins]

voting UKIP in many cases will help Labour.

The only votes that help Labour are votes for Labour. The other votes go to other parties and do not help Labour.

[bearwithasorehead]

The only votes that help Labour are votes for Labour. The other votes go to other parties and do not help Labour.

Keep telling yourself that and ignore the reality of FPTP.

[Kalyayev]

Has anyone mentioned Class War yet? Or indeed the pirate party.

http://ianbone.wordpress.com/2014/01/22/general-election-2015-poll-result/

Looking at the list of parties is like looking at the runners in the Gold Cup.

[FallingAwake]

Keep telling yourself that and ignore the reality of FPTP.

We understand the reality of FPTP.

If the Tory vote is being split by UKIP and they (the Tories) lose the election as a result, it means they need to re-align their policies. End of.

I know some people in this thread think the sky will fall if Labour get back in, but it won't.

They won't be able to repeat their previous 13 years of government, not with a 100+ billion deficit the moment they get into office. In fact, they will have to be very careful, because if the markets think Labour are going to be reckless, the interest payments on the national debt will go up and up, putting the squeeze on.

I also suspect Labour *will* take immigration a bit more seriously, especially after the Brown debacle with "that woman". Even if they don't, well... the current Coalition still haven't brought the numbers down to "tens of thousands", have they? So they haven't really done much, either - except, of course, as the election is coming up and suddenly they've been *talking* about it.

So a vote for UKIP at the General Election achieves multiple things...

(1) If enough people do it, it shows there IS enough concern about the EU to actually vote that way in a GE.

(2) It influences marginal constituencies in particular

(3) It forces the Tories to re-align (i.e. Cameron gone, party moves towards UKIP on Europe... a "win" for UKIP!)

(4) Even if it lets Labour back in, they have to behave or interest rates on our ever-growing national debt goes up, putting pay to any ambitious spending growth. If they don't behave, great! HPC is more likely!

So what's the problem?

[tomandlu]

So what's the problem?

He doesn't like UKIP and you do?

[bearwithasorehead]

We understand the reality of FPTP.

If the Tory vote is being split by UKIP and they (the Tories) lose the election as a result, it means they need to re-align their policies. End of.

I know some people in this thread think the sky will fall if Labour get back in, but it won't.

They won't be able to repeat their previous 13 years of government, not with a 100+ billion deficit the moment they get into office. In fact, they will have to be very careful, because if the markets think Labour are going to be reckless, the interest payments on the national debt will go up and up, putting the squeeze on.

I also suspect Labour *will* take immigration a bit more seriously, especially after the Brown debacle with "that woman". Even if they don't, well... the current Coalition still haven't brought the numbers down to "tens of thousands", have they? So they haven't really done much, either - except, of course, as the election is coming up and suddenly they've been *talking* about it.

So a vote for UKIP at the General Election achieves multiple things...

(1) If enough people do it, it shows there IS enough concern about the EU to actually vote that way in a GE.

(2) It influences marginal constituencies in particular

(3) It forces the Tories to re-align (i.e. Cameron gone, party moves towards UKIP on Europe... a "win" for UKIP!)

(4) Even if it lets Labour back in, they have to behave or interest rates on our ever-growing national debt goes up, putting pay to any ambitious spending growth. If they don't behave, great! HPC is more likely!

So what's the problem?

Good response.

on 3) my point is that while this is true, it is bad for the Tories - if they move towards the right, it makes them less electable overall.

I say this an a dyed-in-the-wool anti-Tory (excuse the pun), which I've been open about on this thread.

[FallingAwake]

on 3) my point is that while this is true, it is bad for the Tories - if they move towards the right, it makes them less electable overall.

I'm not sure taking a more anti-Europe stand is a "move towards the right". I don't see being in or out of, or reforming, the EU, fits neatly within the Left / Right paradigm.

Anyway, I think the Tory dilemma is that they are more naturally the party of big business and bankers, who are more pro-EU in general because it provides them with a simpler, larger marketplace, makes lobbying easier, and the cost of labour is reduced through immigration or by moving factories to cheaper areas of the EU.

By contrast, the Tories' biggest segment of voters are older people who are perhaps more inclined towards UKIP's views. (That's also why UKIP have such NIMBY policies, in my opinion... they know who their biggest supporters are.)

So speaking with my politically neutral hat on, the Tories are going to have a tricky time juggling these two political forces. Having said that, the simplest solution is to give people a referendum on the EU, which it appears they're trying to do.

Changing the subject slightly, I wonder if we might begin to see an era where no party is able to win enough seats to form a strong, majority government? Even though I think odds are that Labour could win the next election, I doubt it will be anything like Blair's 1997 landslide - (1) they've got Milliband in charge, who is NO Tony Blair, and (2) it's only been 5 years since Labour were booted out.

That means UKIP, the Lib Dems or the SNP have to take parliamentary seats from them (as well as the Tories, of course). It appears UKIP aren't quite ready for that yet (although we might be in for a surprise), so it's really down to how the Lib Dems and the SNP perform.

[shindigger]

I'm not sure taking a more anti-Europe stand is a "move towards the right". I don't see being in or out of, or reforming, the EU, fits neatly within the Left / Right paradigm.

Anyway, I think the Tory dilemma is that they are more naturally the party of big business and bankers, who are more pro-EU in general because it provides them with a simpler, larger marketplace, makes lobbying easier, and the cost of labour is reduced through immigration or by moving factories to cheaper areas of the EU.

By contrast, the Tories' biggest segment of voters are older people who are perhaps more inclined towards UKIP's views. (That's also why UKIP have such NIMBY policies, in my opinion... they know who their biggest supporters are.)

So speaking with my politically neutral hat on, the Tories are going to have a tricky time juggling these two political forces. Having said that, the simplest solution is to give people a referendum on the EU, which it appears they're trying to do.

Changing the subject slightly, I wonder if we might begin to see an era where no party is able to win enough seats to form a strong, majority government? Even though I think odds are that Labour could win the next election, I doubt it will be anything like Blair's 1997 landslide - (1) they've got Milliband in charge, who is NO Tony Blair, and (2) it's only been 5 years since Labour were booted out.

That means UKIP, the Lib Dems or the SNP have to take parliamentary seats from them (as well as the Tories, of course). It appears UKIP aren't quite ready for that yet (although we might be in for a surprise), so it's really down to how the Lib Dems and the SNP perform.

The person i see banging on about low pay amongst unskilled workers the most, is one Nigel Farage.

Quite left wing really.

[billybong]

http://

globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.co.uk/2014/01/nigel-farage-video-ukip-takes-lead-in.html

Nigel Farage Video

Inquiring minds should watch an interesting Video Interview of UKIP leader Nighel Farage. Here's the opening lead "The UK Independence Party has managed to win over the hearts of the British public."

[MattW]

I will probably vote for either the Lib Dems or the Greens.

[alexw]

The person i see banging on about low pay amongst unskilled workers the most, is one Nigel Farage.

Quite left wing really.

Yes but then I see his party's policies on taxation and housebuilding and I think, you may be giving the poor £5 but you'll be taking away £10.

[John51]

When did this changing of the party to get elected start?

You'd think that people would stand for what they believed in, then a bunch of them get together as a party, then establish some common ground to unify their message. Then the voters decide which message fits the current situation. Some would wait for the electorate to come round, like libs used to be. Others, like the militant tendancy, tried to jam the message down peoples throats.

Now we have career politicians seeming to not care what the message actually is, as long as they get a go at the trough. liblabcon trick.

[crash2006]

Never voted. See no reason to start now.

That's why we have the same governments because of people like you, if you dont vote you have no right to complain.

[billybong]

When did this changing of the party to get elected start?

You'd think that people would stand for what they believed in, then a bunch of them get together as a party, then establish some common ground to unify their message. Then the voters decide which message fits the current situation. Some would wait for the electorate to come round, like libs used to be. Others, like the militant tendancy, tried to jam the message down peoples throats.

Now we have career politicians seeming to not care what the message actually is, as long as they get a go at the trough. liblabcon trick.

The question deserves discussion.

Upto the early 90s there DID seem to be significant and real differences between the Lab and the Con (the Lib.. didn't seem to figure that much) - even before Thatcher's days.

After Thatcher was deposed it was quite noticeable how suddenly pally the Lab and the Con became (plus the Lib..) to the extent of hardly ever disagreeing to any extent during TV interviews and sometimes they seemed to belong to the same party which was at the time a bit shocking (remembering Heseltine and the mace brandishing etc) but the palliness is now pretty well taken for granted. It was particularly noticeable on matters relating to the eu.

Of course after the early 90s Blair and Brown converted the Lab to the Con 2 (maybe even to the Con 1). In hindsight it all seems to have been so well synchronised along with the changes in the banking system.

They've all merged now to form the LabLibCon con - and probably the most noteworthy aspect of the merger is the con.

Edited February 2, 2014 by billybong

[Ulfar]

One way the system could be fixed is with true proportional representation (not the balls up we were offered). Our current system is leading to all parties being pretty much the same.

UKIP are scaring the current parties as people really want something different. The Liberal Democrats are also scared as they are finished at the next election in my opinion.

[snowflux]

When did this changing of the party to get elected start?

You'd think that people would stand for what they believed in, then a bunch of them get together as a party, then establish some common ground to unify their message. Then the voters decide which message fits the current situation. Some would wait for the electorate to come round, like libs used to be. Others, like the militant tendancy, tried to jam the message down peoples throats.

Now we have career politicians seeming to not care what the message actually is, as long as they get a go at the trough. liblabcon trick.

Was it not just a few days ago that Nigel Farage referred to UKIP's 2010 manifesto that he ran for election on as drivel? Was it not his party that did an immediate U-turn on their support for HS2 as soon as they sensed political capital to be made? UKIP are worse than any of the others when it comes to saying whatever they think will get them elected without any regard to consistency.

[FallingAwake]

That's why we have the same governments because of people like you, if you dont vote you have no right to complain.

We also have the same governments because of people who say "Vote X, Get Y". It means you'll always get X or Y.

America is the perfect example. They're stuck with Red or Blue for eternity. At least, until the Chinese invade.

[snowflux]

One way the system could be fixed is with true proportional representation (not the balls up we were offered). Our current system is leading to all parties being pretty much the same.

UKIP are scaring the current parties as people really want something different. The Liberal Democrats are also scared as they are finished at the next election in my opinion.

The Alternative Vote system may not have been perfect, but it would have been a big step forwards from FPTP as regards giving small parties a voice. The 2011 referendum was our chance, and we blew it.

[AThirdWay]

Jesus, a Tory/UKIP coalition is beginning to look like a real possibility!

SNP all the way, if only to spare Scotland the damage of a Cameron/Farage tag-team.

[dances with sheeple]

Jesus, a Tory/UKIP coalition is beginning to look like a real possibility!

SNP all the way, if only to spare Scotland the damage of a Cameron/Farage tag-team.

I`m more comfortable giving the new guys (UKIP) a shot, rather than established politicians (SNP) a bigger bite of the cherry.

[The Knimbies who say No]

Simon Heffer on Newsnight looking at declining Conservative membership numbers:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b03trt4y/Newsnight_04_02_2014/

The suggestion is that they no longer have sufficient activists to mount effective local campaigns.

From its post war high of about 2.8 million members in the mid 50s, it lost an average of 120 members/day for the following half century to its 134,000 members today.

edit, quite an enlightening discussion after the film with Heffer and Mitchell. Heffer said that he wanted to make a film about the constituency of Morley and Outwood, Ed Balls' home turf and a seat in which he holds a pretty slim majority, but the local Con party cancelled apparently as they didn't have the resources available to make the film.

Mitchell says numbers don't matter as social media can make up the disconnect, Heffer wasn't convinced. And neither am I.

Edited February 5, 2014 by The Knimbies who say no

[davemb]

I am voting ukip. If you vote liblabcon you will get liblabcon.

[The Knimbies who say No]

I am voting ukip. If you vote liblabcon you will get liblabcon.

A recent by-election in Clifton North (Nottingham) ably demonstrates the power of UKIP over the Conservative prospects.

The by-election was called as a result of the Labour incumbent councilor being excluded due to non attendance; the seat was a straight Labour/Conservative showdown last time out but the LibDems, UKIP and a joke candidate all stood this time. Labour held on in the poll with a new candidate with a majority of 154. UKIP were third:

Labour 1179

Conservative 1025

UKIP 536

Bus-Pass Elvis Party 67

Liberal Democrats 56

The stuff of nightmares for Dave&Co.

edit link:

http://www.nottinghamcity.gov.uk/article/26753/By-election---Clifton-North-Ward

Edited March 8, 2014 by The Knimbies who say no

[Dorkins]

The whole design of this so-called constituency based first past the post democracy engenders hopelessness, apathy, helplessness and resentment.

The geographical constituency system is a complete anachronism. It assumes that people living in the same area will have broadly aligned interests. In reality there is much more division within constituencies than between them, especially along age and income/wealth lines.

Actually a more representative system than we have now would be to group voters by one year wide age bands and then elect a number of MPs proportional to the number of people in that age band at the last census. (you might have to lump the over-90s into one big band).

[notMyName]

Well if anyone else would like a 'none of the above' option on the ballots, there is a petition going here: 38 degrees NOTA petition