The Bubbly Bitcoin Thread -- Merged Threads

[markyh]

Well we have reached Week 26 from the 2017 peak of Bitcon.

If we follow 2014 now then we continue to drop until we hit around -80% from peak @ $4kish, then 2 years of sideways price movement before the next 10 x + rise.

If we follow the 1st 2013 rise then we start moving up this week (and last week was a fake out bear trap) and we quickly move to x10 to x 20 from here to the end of the year. 

Or........... it's no repeat of anything and 2018 does it's own thing. 

Time shall tell. Like JJ, still HODL, still up from £2k to £34k, mined in in 2013/14 and have been through 2 major boom and busts now and many many more minor ones. 

Interestingly only 2-3 countries can make money mining Bitcoin below $5.5k due to current dificultly and leccy costs. 

Will be interesting if expensive miners start switchng off and the difficulty drops 2 week later until mning becomes profitable again. I cant actually remember the last time Bitcoin mining difficulty actually dropped?, 2013 or 2015 would be my guess.

Also interesting that 99% of all the Youtube crypto experts and pundits and tech analysis have only had Youtube Channels since 2017. 

 I have not found one that has be broadcastng and uploading videos since 2013 or ealrlier. Like one said ealier this year, the "hero's" took long term Bitcoin and crypto posistions in 2009-2013 at under $400 and will be very hard to shake out of the market my the whales or Wall Street.

Me personally, came within £1k of having to post my pot had gone under £30k on Friday but have a feeling it might come soon. but i will HODL until £0 or £600k (when i then sell out 50%).

To risk £2k is 1/7th of what i am just planning to drop on a Solar and home storage battery system, it wouldnt be missed. 

 

[markyh]

21 hours ago, narco said:

$1,350.

I will happily bet you 1 Bitcoin it will get to $21k before it reaches $1350.

[markyh]

Interesting, just been looking at the 2013 Bistamp chart again. 

The 1st 2013 peak in the week of 8/4/13 reached $259, then crashed 75% to a low of $63 , in the week of 1/7/2013. At week 25, 30/9/2013, the equivilent of last week, there was a 33% flash crash from $127 to $85 (fake out bear trap). The following week was slow, week 26, this week, was slightly up from $122 to $133, +9% , then week 27 (next week) took off from $133 to $166 + 25% the onto a new high of £1163 just 6 weeks a later, a 950% rise.

I was expecting a flash crash last week, week 25 from peak, and it happened, so will this week be slightly up then a quick bull run again from $6153 of last weeks close to $58500 by the week of 13/8/18!!

We can only pray!

 

 

 

[Lavalas]

4 hours ago, markyh said:

I will happily bet you 1 Bitcoin it will get to $21k before it reaches $1350.

So if he wins you pay $1350 but if you win he pays you $21000?

[godnose]

1 hour ago, Lavalas said:

So if he wins you pay $1350 but if you win he pays you $21000?

Someone tried this exact same ruse with me on Reddit. Quite crazy that a lot of people don't notice it!!

[markyh]

12 hours ago, Lavalas said:

So if he wins you pay $1350 but if you win he pays you $21000?

It's called believing in your what you preach. He obviously believes he couldn't lose, as do i.

[Lavalas]

?

Amazing - it’s called something, that’s for sure.

?

[markyh]

2 minutes ago, Lavalas said:

?

Amazing - it’s called something, that’s for sure.

?

Nothing stopping him acquiring the Bitcoin now at a lower price if he thinks he would lose. As I acquired mine @ £250 would cost me almost the whole $21k to lose the bet.

[markyh]

1 minute ago, markyh said:

Nothing stopping him acquiring the Bitcoin now at a lower price if he thinks he would lose. As I acquired mine @ £250 would cost me almost the whole $21k to lose the bet.

I mean whole $1350. lol.

[Lavalas]

Sorry I don’t think it’s worth discussing such a ridiculous suggestion any further. Good luck finding someone to take your bet.  

[wsn03]

I will bet my own crypto holding of

1 1 0 01 1 0 0

It will reach a support level of or around 0

I'll bet my entire holding

[oracle]

On 25/06/2018 at 14:30, markyh said:

To risk £2k is 1/7th of what i am just planning to drop on a Solar and home storage battery system, it wouldnt be missed. 

 

oh for a bit of hindsight!!!  lol?? 

did mine the opposite way round!.  got my panels quite cheap(and got the decent feed-in tariff rate).I had £5K to spend 4 years ago and didn't get bitcoin(I was thinking about it!!)

the only thing missing is battery storage(which I definitely want).

FWIW I don't regret my decision.  I didn't hit jackpot,but I got quite a bit of security,and a reasonable steady income from generation.summer energy/aircon/showers etc are basically free now...winter is about 30% off. so can't complain

[frederico]

Everyone alright in here?

[jiltedjen]

seen an article in the daily mail old man and thought you would pop onto here?

still up 1,560% im just fine

been through another big bubble, will be more in the future. 

Edited June 29, 2018 by jiltedjen

[markyh]

Alls Dandy, crypto not below what I paid for it yet!

[Horseradish]

https://www.ft.com/content/732f1614-7948-11e8-bc55-50daf11b720d "Millennials favour shares and bitcoin over home ownership".

Sensible.

[frederico]

8 hours ago, markyh said:

Alls Dandy, crypto not below what I paid for it yet!

Yeah but just think what might have been, one day Rodney 

[frederico]

13 hours ago, jiltedjen said:

seen an article in the daily mail old man and thought you would pop onto here?

still up 1,560% im just fine

been through another big bubble, will be more in the future. 

Lol everything is fine crypto will save the world!!

[Will!]

The real power of cryptocurrencies is that the hustle never ends!

Bloomberg:  Crypto Coin Graveyard Fills Up Fast as ICOs Meet Their Demise

Quote

But there is always the afterlife.

A new breed of crypto undertaker sees this as an opportunity. Startup CoinJanitor has partnered with Dead Coins, saying it wants to help investors and developers recycle failed coins with market caps of under $50,000.

"We take as many coins off the market as possible," CoinJanitor Chief Executive Officer Marc Kenigsberg said. “Every time we absorb a project, we have more audience and more marketing reach. Instead of linear growth, we should hit some kind of hockey stick growth. All the tokens we get we destroy, we actually burn them. Turn off the entire blockchain."

CoinJanitor plans to take over dead projects, and to burn the dead coins. To do so, it’s created its own token.

"Last year, there were many instances where a project that was essentially ‘dead’ was picked up by a developer, who might have been passively mining it, and brought back to life," Lucas Nuzzi, director of technology research at Digital Asset Research, said in an email. "Out of nowhere, a new version would then come out and the price appreciated, regardless of the substance of the changes made by the developer.

 

[markyh]

12 hours ago, frederico said:

Yeah but just think what might have been, one day Rodney 

Thing is no one can imagine the next all time high 10x up to $200,000, or the one after that to $2,000,000. 

But roll back to the past and no one could see $1 to $10 , or $10 to $100 or $100 to $1000, or $1000 to $10,000. 

This time we peaked to $20,000.  At some point in the future we will peak to 10 x that, certainly within my working lifetime. And it all no coiners will yet again scream bubbble, it will bust again to probably -80%, again, back to $40,000.

I'm sure many many in my position would have sold out @ £100k and ran. But what then? I say if a £2k investment can rach £100k in 4 years it can reach £1m in 8 ,or 10, or 15. 

The plan is the same and simple, when 50% of my pot i worth £300k and can clear my mortgage, sell 50%, have an easy stress free life and see what happens to the remaining 50%. This is only @ around $100k a BTC assume top ten alts rise in tandem. So a 5 x rise from the current all time high.

One thing i know for certain, maybe tomorrow it will cost you less, but today to be in my postion you need to risk £35k to be in my position, and apart from going STR in 2007 i have never had a roof above my head i owned, a mortgage and reasonable secure life and income and, £35k of disposable assets  can tap into anytme if wish. 

It takes many people decades or a lifetime to save that kind of money that isn't tied up to an unreachable pension, it took me 4 years for a one year span of "mining" investment.

I know many think it will all go to zero, but i bet many many many more wished they could buy in now at 2013/14 prices, and if offered that today would happily find a few thousand to do so as the future has already happened, but they couldnt see it 4 years ago.

[Mr Foster]

On 01/07/2018 at 04:08, markyh said:

Thing is no one can imagine the next all time high 10x up to $200,000, or the one after that to $2,000,000. 

But roll back to the past and no one could see $1 to $10 , or $10 to $100 or $100 to $1000, or $1000 to $10,000. 

This time we peaked to $20,000.  At some point in the future we will peak to 10 x that, certainly within my working lifetime. And it all no coiners will yet again scream bubbble, it will bust again to probably -80%, again, back to $40,000.

I'm sure many many in my position would have sold out @ £100k and ran. But what then? I say if a £2k investment can rach £100k in 4 years it can reach £1m in 8 ,or 10, or 15. 

The plan is the same and simple, when 50% of my pot i worth £300k and can clear my mortgage, sell 50%, have an easy stress free life and see what happens to the remaining 50%. This is only @ around $100k a BTC assume top ten alts rise in tandem. So a 5 x rise from the current all time high.

One thing i know for certain, maybe tomorrow it will cost you less, but today to be in my postion you need to risk £35k to be in my position, and apart from going STR in 2007 i have never had a roof above my head i owned, a mortgage and reasonable secure life and income and, £35k of disposable assets  can tap into anytme if wish. 

It takes many people decades or a lifetime to save that kind of money that isn't tied up to an unreachable pension, it took me 4 years for a one year span of "mining" investment.

I know many think it will all go to zero, but i bet many many many more wished they could buy in now at 2013/14 prices, and if offered that today would happily find a few thousand to do so as the future has already happened, but they couldnt see it 4 years ago.

Crypto do not equal to block chain which is where the real value is, and even with block chain, it’s only just started to become useful. The run up to the December high is nothing but speculative mania, not based on any value, like a good ponzie scheme, those retail investors it needs are now spooked after the recent crash. Unlike the previous crash, where only crypto enthusiasts are burnt, when retails are burnt, they tend to stay out for a while. 

What you’ll find is that thousands of the projects behind the alt coins have already failed, plus the scams, manipulating exchanges, hacking, government regulation, I do not see crypto raising for a long time unless something dramatic happens. 

Your strategy is correct though, in this economy, because there’s no other ways to make big money these days, taking a punt is not a bad idea, as long as you’re not going to take out a loan to buy crypto. 

[Silverfinger]

Haven't been on here in a longer time, but wanted to say:

I am very, very impressed by how strong Bitcoin is performing/holding up given it obviously has no intrinsic value and no backing.

This amazing "social phenomenon" (Robert Shiller) can possibly be explained along the lines of religion. Obviously, there has never been any scientific proof of the validity of any religion (proof of a deity etc.), but billions of people are happily going along with it, some deeply convinced that there is great benefit for them in it, which might indeed be true (possibly mostly socially ("church"), but certainly also mentally - I personally know people who claim so). Similarly with Bitcoins, there must be some perceived benefit for people holding them.

Very, very interesting. Never thought it would be so well established and so strong even under this amount of pressure.

And, obviously, a really beautiful bubble, a la Tulip, 1929, and Dotcom. Beautiful charts! Anyhoo, I missed the train!

[jiltedjen]

to understand Bitcoin you really have to go right back to the basics of money creation. You talk about no intrinsic value, but what about sterling or the dollar? what are they backed by? pure confidence, same as bitcoin. Both fiat and bitcoin can be used to buy goods and services. 

All fiat trends to zero value over long enough of a time-scale, lots of money printing and deliberate devaluation. Bitcoin (when you remove the massive speculative bubbles) will keep growing in value, its value for values sake, but unlike with fiat you can hold on to it for 20-30 years without fear of money printing. 

Think in 30 years time (sorry oldies!) when they do charts showing purchasing power of 2018 sterling, a 2018 house, and a 2018 bitcoin. That's when the Bitcoin really gets very serious indeed. When its crystal clear that you can save outside of central bank control. During that period we will have several recessions and continuous mal-investment into zombie companies.

Look at what house prices have done in reaction to pension changes, and to the stock market crash. Houses wont be the store of value forever, its the obvious cash cow for the gov, your not allowed to build personal wealth! 

any sensible person would have a varied portfolio which includes a small % of bitcoin. Thats prudent. If you have chosen to keep out of the mania that's good! but dont be lazy and ignorant and miss adding even some to your portfolio.

[scottbeard]

3 minutes ago, jiltedjen said:

All fiat trends to zero value over long enough of a time-scale, lots of money printing and deliberate devaluation. Bitcoin (when you remove the massive speculative bubbles) will keep growing in value, its value for values sake, but unlike with fiat you can hold on to it for 20-30 years without fear of money printing. 

You see this is what I don't get - I thought bitcoin had been invented as money, and if it's money it should be a store of value, I.e. its value should be STABLE (the same way, as people often quote, a gold coin would buy you a suit of clothes in Roman times and still buys you one today).  However, a lot of people seem to be holding bitcoins expecting the value to INCREASE.

If bitcoin was treated as money, with 1 BTC able to buy me in 20 years' time *exactly* what it buys me today, then I could be on board with it.

I can't, however, see where the future is in an "asset" that produces no income and has no intrinsic value. The only way it seems one can make money with bitcoins is to ride speculative bubbles, and that surely can't have a long-term future?

[jiltedjen]

there is no asset which is a store of value which is not controlled by central banks or normal banks, even gold is printed via paper contracts. Gold no longer works like gold, technology has passed gold by. Its not settled in physical, thus it no longer acts like a true value store. 

i have said previously that bitcoin works better as a store of value than a currency, however lightening network is now making transactions smoother. 

Besides you can buy a cup of coffee with fiat, but you cant protect your savings from being stolen with it. (via inflation). 

The younger generation 'get it' the older generation generally dont. But when looking at future value you dont look at the oldies now, you look at what the young value. 

There will be plenty more countries having currency collapse over the next few years, its pretty common really, US dollars are quite hard to get hold of. The case for Bitcoin grows strong every day.