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Mr Foster

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  1. Crypto do not equal to block chain which is where the real value is, and even with block chain, it’s only just started to become useful. The run up to the December high is nothing but speculative mania, not based on any value, like a good ponzie scheme, those retail investors it needs are now spooked after the recent crash. Unlike the previous crash, where only crypto enthusiasts are burnt, when retails are burnt, they tend to stay out for a while. What you’ll find is that thousands of the projects behind the alt coins have already failed, plus the scams, manipulating exchanges, hacking, government regulation, I do not see crypto raising for a long time unless something dramatic happens. Your strategy is correct though, in this economy, because there’s no other ways to make big money these days, taking a punt is not a bad idea, as long as you’re not going to take out a loan to buy crypto.
  2. TLT is around 120 at the moment. Do you think it will drop a lot e.g. to 100 before raising again as QE starts again?
  3. GDX (gold minors) and TLT (20+ year US treasuries) are taking a pounding.. do you see these recover in the near future?
  4. You do understand the difference between what's easy and what's hard to implement as a government? Easy (Labour) - Promise free everything to win votes.. loosen immigration laws, spend on schools/hospitals without quality controls.. rack up the debt.. everyone will love you Hard (Tory) - Rein in immigration once you had mass immigration for 13 years, try to balance the budget after 13 years' reckless spending and no saving, and keep your crumbling infrastructure afloat. everyone hates you. In the 7 years in power, Tories also had to share power with Liberal Democrats, whiych diluted their program (some will say for the good) I'm not against Labour values... a lot of them are good.. just the way Labour does things.. big government, reckless spending without quality control, uncontrolled immigration are not the answers. If anything it just breeds more dependence on the state; under-employment and more debt which future generations will have to pay for. Rather than more rights (entitlements), how about more responsibility (try look after yourself first).
  5. The issue of housing price bubble is a complex one.. one often hear political parties using it to score points.. Inflation factors 1. Mass Immigration in short amount of time - Immigration rules were loosened during Nu Labour. Once the flood gates are opened, it's very hard to close as Theresa May has found out in the last 7 years) 2. Low interest rates - Central banks now control the interest rates, and this is world wide. governments can't really interfere. 3. BTL - Again during Nu Labour, the government promoted the idea of BTL, this created a massive demand for properties. 4. Incentives - In Cameron's first term, Osborne tried to stimulate the economy and tried to buy votes by establishing Help To Buy. Out of the 4 factors above, the current government is already trying to do something about 1, 2 and 4, as well as start building more social housing.. The government wouldn't be able to build enough social housing to keep up with immigration.. and they end up being neglected and run-down anyway..
  6. TLT already up 1.3% today.. and will move hight from here? The market will bet FED getting it wrong and stop hiking rates (even drop rates when recession is confirmed). My question is why wait to buy treasury? Your USD index prediction is 88 (10%) lower, by then, TLT would have gone up 10% at least?
  7. I'm also of the view of deflation first then reflation, you should read David Stockton, Mike Maloney, Harry Dent. Deflation first. The reasons for deflation is that the global system is now so indebted, and over leveraged (all at almost 0% interest rate), the whole house of cards is only propped up by the sentiment (confidence in Central banks around the world). The global economy will not be able to grow itself out of it. Best scenario is like Japan where there is no real growth for 10-20 years. But any shock/shocks is likely to create a crisis, then a global financial crisis due to contagion. Because the global debt is now much larger than 2008, the impact is going to be much worse. Followed by inflation. Central banks will run out of ammunition and lost confidence of people. Once the crisis is bad enough e.g. >50% fall, government is going to resort to emergency measures.. bypass central banks and print massive amount of money themselves to pay for infrastructure projects, benefits etc, creating inflation.. Of course, you can't time when it's going to happen.. the market can stay irrational for a long time.. That's why the best measure now is to stay out of debt.. and save money. If massive deflation doesn't happen, at least you'll have saved some money for your future.
  8. You do realise DUP is a harcore brexity party. Con (319) + DUP (10) = 329 And if you know how to add up, Lab (261) + SNP (35) + LD (12) + Greens (1) + PC (4) = 313
  9. Easy credit and low interest rates has indeed changed the whole investment game, not just for housing, but for bonds, stocks, arts etc. Consider the below group of people: 1. Pensioners - Bank interest is below 1%, so an investment property yielding 4% is better for the income they desperately need for retirement.. plus, property price only go up, right? 2. BTL investors - while property price goes up and they can service the interest payments, leverage helps them. Although the stamp duty, PRA and S24 changes this. 3. Foreign investors - During 2012-2014, london prices were raising at 10% a year.. this is a no brainer. 4. First time buyer - Interest rate is so low that their monthly payment is lower than rent... after many years of HPI, they want to buy in the fear of missing out. 5. Downsizing/upsizing - again, if mortgage rates are so low, and there is no other investment yieldingmore than 4%, just rent out the original property rather than sell. There you see, cheap credit and low interest rates have resulted in all of these groups entering the housing market because it seems the right thing for them to do at the time.. now stamp duty, PRA and S24 changes have level the playing field a little, when interest rates do go up (early next year?), things will then really turn.. unless we have another global financial crisis before that. All this is telling me the sentiment is not going to turn in a big way for a little while yet (for a 20% + crash), until mid/late next year, I suggest we all save our energy/time and come back to this forum in a year's time.. enjoy the summer
  10. Am i missing something? this is in Tooting? not Richmond.. or is Tooting part of Balham these days.. Even Balham is an up coming area. Splashing £1million plus on a non-prime area really signify the absurdity of the housing market.
  11. The 18 year debt cycle theory is way too simplic.. their premise is that the only deflation periods in the last 50 years started in 1989, 2007.. so the next one has to be 2025.. in another words.. 8 more years of HPI.. this is lazy analysis at its best.. a bit like eonomist using their one dimensional models to predict the future.. there is no other time like now where we have asset bubbles in bonds, stocks, house prices and even arts, all serviced with record debt globally.. the only saving grace is low interest rates.. this won't last too long.. two things may happen.. wage growth or deflation.. we all know wage growth is not going to happen in this labour outsourcing, pro-automation world.. added to this, we have black swans in China shadow banks, European debt, wars in Syria and potential war with North Korea..
  12. Just got a call from an estate agent about a dump in Notting Hill they are trying to flog.. sounded pretty desperate to me. He told me his colleagues think the market has stablised in the last few months.. expect prices to rise from now.. hahah.. they are dreaming.. they have been blaming price falls on the general election, on stamp duty rises, Brexit.. now general election again.. anything but the elephant in the room = outrageously high prices which were inflated by foreign money ; btl investors and low interest rates. This tells me many sellers are still hoping for HPI forever.. the estate agent will tell them this is only a temporary blip of course... I would say any realistic house price movement is not going to happen for another 6-12 months.. rather than getting frustrated at stagant prices for the short term.. I suggest we all should take summer off and come back to this forum at the end of the year
  13. Pimlico is prime central london (Between Chelsea and Westminster, and by the river).. as nice as Ealing is.. there's a big difference between the two.. hence why Ealing is so over-valued, mainly by new builds which are sold off plan to far east investors.
  14. At such elavated price level, volume is always going to be low. Plus interest rates are still low, only forced sellers and desperate BTL investors will transact. No one is willing to pay over the odds anymore, so there's little incentive to people to sell at a profit, especially when they don't know where to put their money next. I was hoping for the Central London price fall (15-20%) to ripple out by now.. but it's slow going because help to buy/shared ownership and new build completion are still holding up prices in the suburbs. If there are FTI (first time idiots) willing to pay up to £600k in "upcoming" areas like Croydon.. then it will take a big shock for price to drop dramatically e.g. another credit crunch/banking crisis.
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