doomed Posted June 30, 2017 Share Posted June 30, 2017 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YAcOnvOVquo&utm_content=buffer2f8b4&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer Craig Wright (Satoshi?) giving unexpected presentation. Link is to live stream though it should let you go back to see presentation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiltedjen Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 Etherium seems to be crashing crazy style. Never did like the alt-coins myself. Bitcoin seems to be correcting, but no crash yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePrufeshanul Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 Any idea why its taking such a hit? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiltedjen Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 i guess etherium investors tend to be those who missed the bitcoin boat, and thus wanted massive gains via an altcoin. Which is a tail as old as bitcoin itself. Very much a pump and dump coin like the rest. Many people who gained in etherium just used those gains to get a reasonable position in bitcoin if they had any sense. I suspect bitcoin will be quite for a a year or two now before the next massive bubble, probably loose a lot of value in that time. But in 6 months time would be prime buying opportunities. Etherium has lost half its value already, unless it suddenly finds a value floor i suspect its going to go down a lot further and then unlikely to ever recover. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePrufeshanul Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 Wow - that would be a shock given the extreme amounts of hype that have been generated around Ethereum. Do you see any difference with Litecoin? I know there is a n upcoming soft fork decision with Bitcoin - do you see this affecting the value (either way) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiltedjen Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 i would guess most altcoins act like silver does in relation to gold. Does nothing for ages, then when gold bubbles hugely, silver suddenly spikes massive % more than gold, then falls back to virtually nothing back again. So silver is very volatile. there will always be hyped up altcoins, i personally dont like etherium as its centrally managed, can be rolled back. its basically the same system we have with banks allready but more efficient. i rather a coin which kills banks, and forces governments not to destroy currency value, bitcoin will do that one day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darby Ram Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 4 hours ago, ThePrufeshanul said: Any idea why its taking such a hit? There are good technical reasons that the Eth bubble is bursting, and bursting hard. Speculative demand was being driven by start-up ICOs (pushing the price up) but the start-up ICOs need to sell to fiat to meet their expenses (pushing the price down). As the price starts falling, those start-ups are either racing to sell their Eth at the best price, or there is an expectation that they will do so, and traders start trying to get out ahead of them. There is also, I think, a general sense that (a) Eth's best use to date (raising funds) is damaging to the value of Eth in the short- to medium-term if the community is throwing Eth at any old garbage and (b) either any old garbage will continue to get funded because the due diligence is absent or the due diligence will tighten up and the actual use of the network gets pushed out into the future. I don't agree with @jiltedjen that we'll never see a recovery in Ethereum. The technological fundamental are still good, developer engagement is great and Ethereum targets a space that Bitcoin talked about a few years and has now abandoned. There's a lot of space in the blockchain world still. But, yes, I think the alts are probably heading for an extended bear market, of the kind we've seen in Bitcoin before. As someone who is happy selling into euphoria, I also think the next 6-12 months could be a good time to start accumulating again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiltedjen Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darby Ram Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 4 hours ago, jiltedjen said: This tweet is wrong, though. Hedging with alts has been the right choice. Even hedging with objectively bad alts like Dash has been more profitable than just holding Bitcoin and, if you re-balance sensibly (i.e. to approximate the index), then the "they will go to zero argument" holds much less water. I track my investments pretty closely, to make sure that I'm not deluding myself, so I can put some numbers on this. To simplify things, if you'd hedged Bitcoin with just Ethereum from the beginning of this year, and bought in proportion to their market caps, you'd have approx 95% BTC and 5% ETH. $100 in a hedged portfolio would be worth $340 now (assuming no re-balancing in the interim). $100 in an un-hedged, all Bitcoin portfolio would be worth $244. The number of unknowns in crypto is so high that insurance by diversification is essential, I think. One way of looking at the recent alt bubble is simply that too many people realised, too late, that they didn't have that kind of insurance. But even if we're past the irrational exuberance stage of pricing alts, I'm not sure we just go back to the status quo of Bitcoin as a monopolist. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evetsm Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 23 hours ago, jiltedjen said: i guess etherium investors tend to be those who missed the bitcoin boat, and thus wanted massive gains via an altcoin. Which is a tail as old as bitcoin itself. Very much a pump and dump coin like the rest. Many people who gained in etherium just used those gains to get a reasonable position in bitcoin if they had any sense. I suspect bitcoin will be quite for a a year or two now before the next massive bubble, probably loose a lot of value in that time. But in 6 months time would be prime buying opportunities. Etherium has lost half its value already, unless it suddenly finds a value floor i suspect its going to go down a lot further and then unlikely to ever recover. I get into trouble saying this, but I agree. I think ethereum is cooked. I know that the Ethereum guys say that Turing Complete is not actually an Ethereum goal. But even though they may be attempting something less, the costs to secure what they have are huge , in gas and blockchain bloat. Specialized sidechains may prove to be its nemesis. "We can see here that it costs 0.09 ETH or $26.55 to add two numbers together 1 million times. Compared to running on a local computer or cloud server this seems pretty high. Let’s do a quick price comparison to AWS. I can add two numbers together 1 million times in python in 0.04 seconds. Amazon charges $0.0059/hour for their cheapest EC2 instance?—?t2.nano. This costs $0.000001639/second or $0.000000066 for the operation. Compared to $26.55, this is about 400Million times more expensive (or 40Million if you are willing to pay a low gas price). Whoa!" https://hackernoon.com/ether-purchase-power-df40a38c5a2f?lipi=urn%3Ali%3Apage%3Ad_flagship3_feed%3BBwntHKclQ46vi0lRte9cHw%3D%3D edit : this cost may actually be justified if you believe that the timeless blockchain security associated will render compensatory economies of scale. However, I believe that you are paying less for the timeless blockchain security of ethereum but more for the gas to secure Turing Completeness. eg. to stop raw computational attacks. If you use a purpose built side-chain on , say, bitcoin, like rootstock, you get the secure blockchain contracts without paying for gas. I think the "Turing Completeness" will rather come from multiple specialized sidechains rather than one very expensive Turing Complete system like Ethereum. IMO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doomed Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 I agree Ethereum is toast. In addition to what has been stated above there is a lot of potential legal problems down the road due to the ICO insanity taking place. Also the original funding model for ethereum itself could well fall foul of security laws. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePrufeshanul Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 "I agree Ethereum is toast" Wow - incredible given how hyped it has been over the past few weeks. Do you think this is a widespread point of view and where you do you see the price settling? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doomed Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 10 minutes ago, ThePrufeshanul said: "I agree Ethereum is toast" Wow - incredible given how hyped it has been over the past few weeks. Do you think this is a widespread point of view and where you do you see the price settling? It certainly doesn't seem to be a widespread view but for me it seems Ethereum's only use case is a speculation platform. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePrufeshanul Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 Interesting. I am keenly anticipating Miggsy's comments on recent events having kept an eye on the discussion with evetsm. Is this a speculative crash or acceptance of an underlying problem with Turing completeness? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 It's amazing when people on here can't spot a bubble/con/ponzi. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evetsm Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 (edited) 22 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said: It's amazing when people on here can't spot a bubble/con/ponzi. I think it's because most people here can see a systainable economic utility for crypto that has sound money properties. Some crypto truly has more monetary properties than any other money known. Portable Divisible Fungible Durable Relatively scarce Non counterfeitable/Inflatable Not consumed by industry Gold used to satisfy most properties, but bitcoin, for example, satisfies more(portable,divisible, non counterfeitable.eg. tungsten "gold"). Compare this to tulips and there is no comparison. By definition, a ponzi , unlike (some) crypto, is not economically sustainable. Edited July 12, 2017 by evetsm added to Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doomed Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said: It's amazing when people on here can't spot a bubble/con/ponzi. It amazes me when people on here can't see the need for sound money out of governments control after the 2008 shit show. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habeas Domus Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 How many people are using bitcoin to pay for groceries or rent? about 0.000001% I would guess meanwhile Apple Pay volume is up 450% over the past year, I might just buy some AAPL instead Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lombardo Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 14 hours ago, Darby Ram said: objectively bad alts like Dash Dash is brilliant. I don't know if all the hate is due to how they market it. But technically it's Bitcoin's biggest contender for the crown. Let's come back to this post in a couple of years time and see if I was right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiltedjen Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 2 hours ago, Habeas Domus said: How many people are using bitcoin to pay for groceries or rent? about 0.000001% I would guess meanwhile Apple Pay volume is up 450% over the past year, I might just buy some AAPL instead And how many use bitcoin as a none state based store of value? 99% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darby Ram Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 (edited) 10 hours ago, evetsm said: I get into trouble saying this, but I agree. I think ethereum is cooked. I know that the Ethereum guys say that Turing Complete is not actually an Ethereum goal. But even though they may be attempting something less, the costs to secure what they have are huge , in gas and blockchain bloat. Specialized sidechains may prove to be its nemesis. "We can see here that it costs 0.09 ETH or $26.55 to add two numbers together 1 million times. Compared to running on a local computer or cloud server this seems pretty high. Let’s do a quick price comparison to AWS. I can add two numbers together 1 million times in python in 0.04 seconds. Amazon charges $0.0059/hour for their cheapest EC2 instance?—?t2.nano. This costs $0.000001639/second or $0.000000066 for the operation. Compared to $26.55, this is about 400Million times more expensive (or 40Million if you are willing to pay a low gas price). Whoa!" https://hackernoon.com/ether-purchase-power-df40a38c5a2f?lipi=urn%3Ali%3Apage%3Ad_flagship3_feed%3BBwntHKclQ46vi0lRte9cHw%3D%3D edit : this cost may actually be justified if you believe that the timeless blockchain security associated will render compensatory economies of scale. However, I believe that you are paying less for the timeless blockchain security of ethereum but more for the gas to secure Turing Completeness. eg. to stop raw computational attacks. If you use a purpose built side-chain on , say, bitcoin, like rootstock, you get the secure blockchain contracts without paying for gas. I think the "Turing Completeness" will rather come from multiple specialized sidechains rather than one very expensive Turing Complete system like Ethereum. IMO I think this AWS comparison is a bit silly, to be honest. Since you can't start up and shut down an EC2 instance just to add 2 integers together, the real comparator would be AWS Lambda. Using that to send two million requests to add two integers together would cost around $0.20. Still a whole lot cheaper, but not as dramatic as the original post makes out. It's also comparing the costs of two very different things. The cheapest possible computation is not always the most useful computation, which is why the once pitiful processing power of mobile phones got bigger and better, and why mobile developers learned what to do on-device and what to do off-device. I'd expect a similar learning curve over what to compute on- and off-chain and an increase in the capabilities of on-chain or near- on-chain computation as scaling ramps up, gas prices (or whatever gas is called in the Ethereum killer) get cheaper and we get state channels and chain interoperability with Polkadot. Personally, I think Ethereum has further to fall but is not dead (although there is still a non-zero risk of both it and Bitcoin failing). But the Bitcoin maximalist stance that there is value in one decentralised consensus protocol but that all of the other decentralised consensus protocols are valueless looks increasingly hard to defend. Edited July 12, 2017 by Darby Ram Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inoperational Bumblebee Posted July 12, 2017 Share Posted July 12, 2017 5 hours ago, Habeas Domus said: How many people are using bitcoin to pay for groceries or rent? about 0.000001% I would guess meanwhile Apple Pay volume is up 450% over the past year, I might just buy some AAPL instead How many use gold? Probably less than your 0.000001%. Doesn't mean it doesn't have value as a means of exchange or storage. I'm not really up on the theory or tech behind cryptos (or gold for that matter), but they do actually seem to have some utility to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiltedjen Posted July 15, 2017 Share Posted July 15, 2017 (edited) I suspect Bitcoin will find support at £1,250 could take another 2-3 years before the next even more drastic mega bubble. next time probably passing £6,000 - £7,000 good to see some of the alts and ICO's fall away to nothing. This bitcoin bubble was just another growth spurt/growing pain. I do wonder what will happen to bitcoin if we do get another crisis though, which could happen in the next 18 months, gold could finally regain serious uphill momentum, perhaps that will have a moderating effect on the bitcoin falls after this bubble? could mean that the support level is much higher. Also people have learnt that bitcoin will bubble again, and thus be expecting (as i expect) it to eventually find support and be quiet for a while, if people will trade that way. and actually make bitcoins price confusing indeed. mini bubbles during the bust phase? Edited July 15, 2017 by jiltedjen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dugsbody Posted July 15, 2017 Share Posted July 15, 2017 1 hour ago, jiltedjen said: good to see some of the alts and ICO's fall away to nothing. Why? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddie_George Posted July 15, 2017 Share Posted July 15, 2017 5 hours ago, dugsbody said: Why? Because they're scams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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