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ThePrufeshanul

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About ThePrufeshanul

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  1. Ah OK - thanks for the update. This strikes me as a huge own goal for the site sadly.
  2. Phew - so is normal service resumed? This thread is the main reason i come to this site and DB is the main reason I come to the thread.
  3. From the discussion: "Of course, massive exogeneous shocks, although rare, could occur at any time, and the LPPLS model can provide no warning there." In other words it's a curve-fitting exercise and probably less accurate than some of the excellent contributors to this thread.
  4. Difficult to say really - I have been dabbling since 2013 but only more seriously into crypto since early 2017, TA for about two months. As the entire market is so affected by hype I try and keep abreast of developments on forums, Youtubers, podcasts, Google search data etc. I've been keeping a trading log and have worked out a system by which to manage my trades. Of course it's very early for me and I expect to lose most of them but i'm interested in developing consistency in my patterns. At least then if i'm consistently wrong i can alter my approach and track what happens. What I'm focussing on is trying to improve my portfolio management with the signals I get adjusted for how I think the market is going, how individual coins are doing, macro trends etc. I recognise that I was coming in far too hot before in terms of risk allocation. It worked out for me thanks to the market in 2017 but I was lucky. So far it reminds me of running; training for a run mainly involves a lot of restraint and emotional discipline for months in sticking to a programme - it's easy to overtrain and injure yourself if you are too exuberant. On the day of the race you can finally ditch that and go all out. Learning to control that emotional change of gears in different market conditions is the route to success I think.
  5. Well it forces you to put numbers on the state of the market on a daily basis and evaluate your risk/reward for each trade if you have worked out a strategy and the discipline to stick to it. Consequently, I'm much more cautious than I was previously using my fundamentals/HODL strategy and the majority of my crypto investment is now in fiat currencies. This doesn't get the best returns but is some insurance against a black swan. More importantly my primary goal has changed from making money to surviving in the space whilst i educate myself. And that education includes the understanding of what others are doing since the use of TA is so widespread. Using TA I'm going through the process of getting a "feel" for the market in a completely different way and appreciating what kind of things move it and when. This is more of a protection against black swans which are improbable but not impossible to predict. That's what I think people miss about TA; it's not a case of it "working" or "not working" it's a form of information, a tool. How you use it will determine whether you are successful. A chart pattern and indicators may point to a 30% chance that the market will run against you but a successful trader and an unsuccessful one will use that same information to manage their portfolios in different ways - does that mean that TA has succeeded or failed? Neither in my view, the struggle is an internal one.
  6. My view on this is that TA is a valuable prism through which to view what the market is actually doing rather than what is supposed to be doing. The key thing using a TA-based strategy isn't so much to refine analytical schemes to the "n"th degree but to use it as a tool which which to improve your portfolio management. So far my understanding is that this is the crucial difference between successful and unsuccessful traders. I use TA in the spirit of Taleb and the point he makes in Antifragile about not chasing the best returns but guarding against black swans.
  7. Good recommendation - I remember reading that at the expense of my A level maths textbooks and arguing with my teacher about it
  8. The "crutch" is information. TA doesn't work for everybody because learning what to do with that information is a very subjective sport. And, of course, part of the learning means gaining experience by making losing trades - which is often enough to drive people away from it with their fingers burnt. Perhaps i will be one of them. But nevertheless there is a group of people who consistently make big money over a timeframe of decades so it follows that there is something to it. Perhaps it's also a crutch to some to dismiss it so that they don't have to bother themselves with it?
  9. Yes, very true - I take it all with a pinch of salt and have a level of acceptable losses worked out. So far it seems to be working well but of course I accept that could all change tomorrow (or even in the next hour). Nobody actually knows with certainty what is going to happen with this or any other market - that includes the method you're using
  10. Understanding TA helps me read what the market is actually doing as opposed to what people say it is doing. Personally I find that information valuable. Yes, professional traders use TA but that is actually an argument in favour of using it yourself. If the big institutions are using rules to decide when to buy or sell and their movements affect the market then it is advantageous to understand how they think. A lot of the people who are currently in crypto have no interest in learning TA - if you have an edge over them the advantages are obvious. It's not the complete answer but (for me) it has to be part of the mix. I've set up a group of trading rules and, having backtested them, have worked out that my profits would be 3x higher had i started in December.
  11. You may (and markyh) may be correct. I have to say that it's certainly been helpful for me as it forces you to consider entry and exit points as well as a profit-taking strategy. I'm one of those people who needs to put numbers on things, especially goals, to stop me fooling myself. I'm relatively new to investing - wife and child have forced me to focus my attention and learning TA at the moment to devise a trading algorithm. I made the mistake of buying and HODLing before, I only wish I knew then what i know how however there are few shortcuts that work
  12. I'm puzzled - are you saying that you CAN use data from the past to predict the future or that you can't?
  13. Ah fair enough, it's a random act. Frankly, you could be right. But have you come from that conclusion through studying/using/understanding chart analysis or is it just an assumption? Fugazi
  14. I think I read a book once about a girl falling down a rabbit-hole and encountering all sorts of weird phenomena If we take you at your word and history doesn't help you predict what your investments are likely to do - and on top of that you are discounting present market data - can you please explain what your investment decisions are actually based on then?
  15. Then, as Warren Buffet points out, you shouldn't be investing in cryptocurrency at all. It's a volatile market in an emerging asset class. There's no way of telling which company is the next Ford or the next Oldsmobile.
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