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ThePrufeshanul

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Everything posted by ThePrufeshanul

  1. Ah OK - thanks for the update. This strikes me as a huge own goal for the site sadly.
  2. Phew - so is normal service resumed? This thread is the main reason i come to this site and DB is the main reason I come to the thread.
  3. From the discussion: "Of course, massive exogeneous shocks, although rare, could occur at any time, and the LPPLS model can provide no warning there." In other words it's a curve-fitting exercise and probably less accurate than some of the excellent contributors to this thread.
  4. Difficult to say really - I have been dabbling since 2013 but only more seriously into crypto since early 2017, TA for about two months. As the entire market is so affected by hype I try and keep abreast of developments on forums, Youtubers, podcasts, Google search data etc. I've been keeping a trading log and have worked out a system by which to manage my trades. Of course it's very early for me and I expect to lose most of them but i'm interested in developing consistency in my patterns. At least then if i'm consistently wrong i can alter my approach and track what happens.
  5. Well it forces you to put numbers on the state of the market on a daily basis and evaluate your risk/reward for each trade if you have worked out a strategy and the discipline to stick to it. Consequently, I'm much more cautious than I was previously using my fundamentals/HODL strategy and the majority of my crypto investment is now in fiat currencies. This doesn't get the best returns but is some insurance against a black swan. More importantly my primary goal has changed from making money to surviving in the space whilst i educate myself. And that education includes the understandi
  6. My view on this is that TA is a valuable prism through which to view what the market is actually doing rather than what is supposed to be doing. The key thing using a TA-based strategy isn't so much to refine analytical schemes to the "n"th degree but to use it as a tool which which to improve your portfolio management. So far my understanding is that this is the crucial difference between successful and unsuccessful traders. I use TA in the spirit of Taleb and the point he makes in Antifragile about not chasing the best returns but guarding against black swans.
  7. Good recommendation - I remember reading that at the expense of my A level maths textbooks and arguing with my teacher about it
  8. The "crutch" is information. TA doesn't work for everybody because learning what to do with that information is a very subjective sport. And, of course, part of the learning means gaining experience by making losing trades - which is often enough to drive people away from it with their fingers burnt. Perhaps i will be one of them. But nevertheless there is a group of people who consistently make big money over a timeframe of decades so it follows that there is something to it. Perhaps it's also a crutch to some to dismiss it so that they don't have to bother themselves
  9. Yes, very true - I take it all with a pinch of salt and have a level of acceptable losses worked out. So far it seems to be working well but of course I accept that could all change tomorrow (or even in the next hour). Nobody actually knows with certainty what is going to happen with this or any other market - that includes the method you're using
  10. Understanding TA helps me read what the market is actually doing as opposed to what people say it is doing. Personally I find that information valuable. Yes, professional traders use TA but that is actually an argument in favour of using it yourself. If the big institutions are using rules to decide when to buy or sell and their movements affect the market then it is advantageous to understand how they think. A lot of the people who are currently in crypto have no interest in learning TA - if you have an edge over them the advantages are obvious. It's not the complete a
  11. You may (and markyh) may be correct. I have to say that it's certainly been helpful for me as it forces you to consider entry and exit points as well as a profit-taking strategy. I'm one of those people who needs to put numbers on things, especially goals, to stop me fooling myself. I'm relatively new to investing - wife and child have forced me to focus my attention and learning TA at the moment to devise a trading algorithm. I made the mistake of buying and HODLing before, I only wish I knew then what i know how however there are few shortcuts that work
  12. I'm puzzled - are you saying that you CAN use data from the past to predict the future or that you can't?
  13. Ah fair enough, it's a random act. Frankly, you could be right. But have you come from that conclusion through studying/using/understanding chart analysis or is it just an assumption? Fugazi
  14. I think I read a book once about a girl falling down a rabbit-hole and encountering all sorts of weird phenomena If we take you at your word and history doesn't help you predict what your investments are likely to do - and on top of that you are discounting present market data - can you please explain what your investment decisions are actually based on then?
  15. Then, as Warren Buffet points out, you shouldn't be investing in cryptocurrency at all. It's a volatile market in an emerging asset class. There's no way of telling which company is the next Ford or the next Oldsmobile.
  16. You prove my point. Replace chartism with "newspapers". A person who understands the past (and who may discount it) is likely to perform better than someone who is ignorant of history. The medium is the message.
  17. I don't think it's that simple. Reading the charts allows to see how the market is behaving at present with a different prism to fundamentals. How that translates to future movements can be a matter of debate and may vary from period to period but the only alternatives are that you CAN'T predict good investments (which may be true but, in which case what are you doing posting on HPC.co.uk) or that you go by fundamental analysis (unproven in a super volatile market for a new asset class) or sentiment (probably the best predictor but how do you know you are measuring it accurately?).
  18. Me too - I feel that the market is teetering on the brink right now and go either way quite spectacularly.
  19. Yes of course but this is just one exchange (that currently stores $20bn of assets) and this is only the first step. The $10bn is what they think is immediately available - if they achieve that it will open the floodgates. As the CEO says "no-one wants to be first but many people want to be second." If every exchange develops tools that mean a 50% increase in cash virtually overnight then crypto will be back off to the races.
  20. The key thing that will drive the price to the next level is institutional buy-in. If you are a pension fund or JP Morgan you need to find a bulletproof way to keep your money safe from hacking, bail-ins, frozen accounts AND your own employees. Hence exchanges are looking at changing their business model: https://cointelegraph.com/news/coinbase-targets-10-bln-institutional-investor-market-with-new-suite-of-products
  21. I like it - it's like a reverse "Atlas Shrugged". The sheeples will never actually be able to co-ordinate such an event however the politicians and their idiot policies have partly ensured that this is happening already.
  22. Yes - apart from a few trolls everyone on the site is here because they are expecting the mother of all crashes that will affect housing prices and, even more so crypto prices. We know it's coming but the golden question is when. Unfortunately, as you pointed out there isn't much support till way down the charts but, equally, once through 10k there isn't much sign of resistance upto around the $30k mark. News this morning from the New York Times is that the NYSE is planning to open a Bitcoin exchange according to secret documents they have obtained. In other words theref
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