Halifax Hpi September 2010 -3.6%!

[Lambie]

Posting to record my name in the national archives for posterity, on an epic thread

In years to come, my children will ask "Where were you on Crash Zero Day daddy" "I was on the Great Thread son, I was actually there".

Are you listening Sibley, Hamish and Sarah Beeny? Your boys took a hell of a beating, one hell of a beating

[pajd]

Hamish from MSE's take on the 3.6% fall

Looks to me like Halifax is a statistical blip, as the three month on three month and annual figures for the two indices have now adjusted to a position more in line with each other.

If we get a big fall from Nationwide that opens the gap again, then it isn't statistical noise and I'd expect falls to continue until....

1. People pull their houses off the market, just like last time, supply falls off a cliff and prices rebound.

2. The BoE panics and pulls the trigger on QE2, mortgage availability increases and prices rebound.

3. The government panics and pulls the trigger on additional direct assistance for the housing market as any serious, and more importantly sustained, drops would trigger a double dip recession in the wider economy and threaten the banks stability. And then of course, prices would rebound.

Any way you look at it, sudden and steep falls will prove counterproductive for bears in the long term. So I rather think this will prove to be another false dawn for them.

[VeryMeanReversion]

Since these are September approvals, it is likely that these are for sale prices agreed in July and the first couple of weeks of August.

Since then, we have had the politicians come back to work and work on their austerity messages and of course, the Tory conference has reinforced this message.

It was around this time that some interesting properties came up in my target roads of ~60 houses, both priced lower than expected and with forced sellers (bankrupt, divorce settlement). One reduced asking by 7+% quickly so I went for it.

It needs £75K of work being done to it to make it the same as a house £175K more expensive sold in the road in just July this year (sold in less than a week at full asking). So if I can put up with some building work, I've saved £100K in a couple of months. (more including stamp duty, fees and future council tax, estimate another £10K)

My purchase (if it completes) should appear in next months approvals.

[neil324]

Im speechless

[Riedquat]

Terrible news. A big sign that one of life's essentials is getting cheaper. Just have to hope that the government will put up taxes to compensate.

[Ruffneck]

nice , great to see HPC rockin' again

looking forward to laughing at more VI spin

-3.6 could be enough to send the entire world economy into a tailspin

[Jin]

Bingo ... seems like the Gold bull might have some way to run too, as a result.

The question is, how long before the next few hundred billion quid of freshly minted money starts to work its 'magic' like the last lot did? After all it boosted markets, pushed up the prices of commodities, sent gold rocketing and (eventually) put a false floor under house prices.

We could be in for a rollercoaster set of market graphs with the peaks and troughs getting ever closer as each batch of QE reduces its potency, demanding more frequent and bigger print runs. End game is ever debasing currency and eventual out of control inflation.

It's sort of irrelevant if you're hedged...

[Brave New World]

Hamish from MSE's take on the 3.6% fall

Someone who can post on MSE please correct the idiot.

Isn't he an EA - re supply, he clearly has no clue!

QE = higher inflation = less cash in the Sibley's pocket to spend on mortgages.

[NEO72]

I disagree.

1% either way is 'meh and there isn't much to say about it. 3.6% either way is very significant.

I'd go out and buy this week off the back of a 3.6% rise.

Oh, and I'm not saying that HPI and Nationwide are conspiring () on the figures, but they clearly have a motivation to paint them in a positive light as possible. Publishing this number must have broken their heart.

Exactly - margins of error and all that. You'd need a f**king huge margin of error for this to be taken as anything other than significant. Also, I would say only the minority have discounted rises in the same index - you can see in the general dejection following rises that this is not the case.

Besides there are actually sound reasons that rises may be exagerated on these indices eg even though they are mix-adjusted and therefore not affected by different ratios of house types selling, anecdotal evidence suggests that 'desirable' properties are fetching relatively higher prices, which would skew the averages upwards.

One more step towards vindication!!

[Bozzbozz]

Maybe its designed to put the frightners on the FSA with the MMR report looming in a months time......

[getdoon_weebobby]

i waz ere 7/10/10

[Tired of Waiting]

Is this the politically engineered crash speed that many have mentioned hear - getting the falls out of the way early and hard ready for a recovereh in time for the next election?

That was usually me. But I am not so sure any more. We had no signs of it in 5 months. I thought the coalition would do something faster than that. So I started to think that their goal was instead to try to go for a very small and constant decline in nominal prices, less than 5%/year, and allow inflation to take another 3-5%/year. Steady, for a few years. "Under the radar".

But now I have no idea, whatsoever.

Let's see the gov's reaction to the news.

[ccc]

Hamish from MSE's take on the 3.6% fall

Brilliant. Does he not realise that his arguments also work in reverse .

I have said this for a few years now. Due to the put it on the market > pull it off the market - depending on the media's spin.

Long slow drawn out drops over at least another 2-3 years. Probably a lot more. It is so obvious and clear now. Has been for a long time too IMO.

[sarah_id]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11491015

House prices fell by 3.6% in September from the previous month, according to the Halifax the largest fall on record.

Still holding on to their old trick to give false hope to avoid any panic

"However, the bank, now part of the Lloyds Banking Group, said it was too early to conclude that this was the start of a sustained fall in prices."......

[Bobajobbob]

Wooohoooo!

[Kyoto]

I don't think I'm imagining it, but the bee is showing lots of reductions on 7th October - really quite a lot to say it's only 10.30 am.

B1, M1, LS1, NG1.

Try your target areas....

Edited October 7, 2010 by Kyoto

[leicestersq]

Lets have a look at the various things that can affect house prices.

1) Mortgage availability - Much reduced. The banks are getting ready for the ending of the SLS, so they have less money to lend. They are, as a result demanding bigger deposits, proof of income, and tougher valuations.

2) The FSA finally appears to be taking liar loans away from the marketplace.

3) Private sector wages and Public sector wages appear to be frozen on the whole.

But on the plus side for houses we still have,

a ) very low interest rates.

b ) high net immigration

c ) lots of social security benefits that keep people who cant afford it in housing

d ) a reluctance by banks to evict families from homes they cannot afford.

Waiting in the wings we have stable employment, which could all change as the public sector receives an axe.

I cant see how b ) above is going to change, but a ) c) and d ) could change very quickly.

This Halifax Flash crash is the Start of the Beginning.

[Ex-Overseas Landlord]

Hmmmm

First the BBC headline was "UK house prices slide 3.6% in September, Halifax says"

Then:

"UK house prices plunge 3.6% in September, Halifax says"

Now its a rather modest:

"UK house prices fell 3.6% in September, Halifax says"

Edited October 7, 2010 by Ex-Overseas Landlord

[Byron]

I suspect that the Government are quite happy about this.

The Conservatives do not have a majority and must feel vulnerable.

Recent reports suggest that many boomers are not so happy about high house prices now that their children need to buy.

The bank of Mum and Dad can only sustain a limited amount of depletion, now that taxes wages etc are in adverse adjustment (I like that phrase), HPC will not be so unpopular.

Anyway, I have changed from being a bear.

I have decided to be a Stuka!

[neil324]

I don't think I'm imagining it, but the bee is showing lots of reductions on 7th October - really quite a lot o say it's only 10.30 am.

Try your target areas....

Nothing is being reduced in mine except flats. Maybe this will change that, it's got to be all over the news today and tommorrow.

[duckwomanloulou]

Bingo ... seems like the Gold bull might have some way to run too, as a result.

The question is, how long before the next few hundred billion quid of freshly minted money starts to work its 'magic' like the last lot did? After all it boosted markets, pushed up the prices of commodities, sent gold rocketing and (eventually) put a false floor under house prices.

We could be in for a rollercoaster set of market graphs with the peaks and troughs getting ever closer as each batch of QE reduces its potency, demanding more frequent and bigger print runs. End game is ever debasing currency and eventual out of control inflation.

Anybody with a core position and sitting on the sidelines to buy more gold (ie waiting for a pull back) considering buying in now if they announce QE2? Surely that will put a floor under the current price short term and squash any hopes of a decline in the price?

[cica]

I have decided to be a Stuka!

I kept the faith too.

[goldbug9999]

Makes my thread here http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=152304&st=0&gopid=2736915entry2736915 yesterday seem embarrassingly prescient.

"Eventually there is a capitulation stage.."

To be fair even I didnt expect it to happen overnight

[200p]

Sibers/Hamish why fight it. Go with the flow. Falls are good. Think of all those lovely commissions. Market becomes more liquid etc.

Edited October 7, 2010 by Money Spinner

[moonriver]

Well, I reckon that figure certainly surprised us all. I don't think even one of us here, would of predicted -3.6% in one month.

Looks like the lack of those liar loans is starting to bite.

I think this news may give us the treat of some extra large rainbow colour graphics, from our Eric soon.