Halifax Hpi September 2010 -3.6%!

[Mogy]

It's time for a bear party.

[lets get it right]

All around the country property owners are puzzled. 'Hmmm, prices haven't gone down around here, must be the North, South, East, West, Somewhere Else definitely not here'

On the other hand, what would the reaction on this site be if the figure had been 3.6% up.

It's regional, it's skewed by only big houses selling, it's wrong, it's VI bull, it's not what I'm seeing etc.

Trying to remain dispassionate for a moment - the reaction here proves the old adage ... 'people believe what they want to believe'

[Tired of Waiting]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-06/bank-of-england-may-step-away-from-stimulus-exit-as-u-k-economy-stumbles.html

done & dusted.

£?

Interesting article. thanks for posting it.

QE in November?

“There is a chance that Posen might be able to secure a majority to vote with him on QE,” former policy maker David Blanchflower wrote in an article for the New Statesman. “But more likely is that the MPC will agree to an additional 50 billion pounds worth of asset purchases at its November meeting, when it will produce its latest forecast.”

[lets get it right]

You got it.

Every Tory government comes with a free crash and a recession. Sometimes you even get two, if they hold on to power long enough.

Fixed that for you.

In the sense that, over the last 60 years or more, every Tory government has come after a Labour government, it is true. Free crash and a recession while Labour's inevitable mess is cleared up.

[Mrs Bear]

What are the VIs going to blame this 'blip' on? Rainy September weather?

We are apparently due a bit of Indian summer now (gorgeous here yesterday ) so £10 says we'll be hearing of an 'Indian summer bounce'.

Brilliant news though - esp. since we're viewing one tomorrow - first one for ages that looks as if it ticks most of the boxes.

[Georgia O'Keeffe]

You got it.

Every Tory government economy comes with a free crash and a recession. Sometimes you even get two, if they hold on to power you wait long enough.

it seems you have no concept of human nature of which govt is a small part.

You should try to understand that the crashes/recessions are actually the healthiest part of the economic cycle destroying malinvestment, it is the prosperity phase that is the destructive phase, it creates the malinvestment. If you want to be a good politician, it is no different to being a good investor, come in at the bottom of the cycle and get out before the top

[Umaguma]

some banks are going to die as this continues

[Brave New World]

Great news is that EAs will use this as a stick to beat down prices their end as the struggle to survive on the meagre transaction levels.

Have we got to the stage where not only the macro support aids but also the micro market is now self fulfilling in the way it will feed further and consistant falls?!

[Sour Mash]

Get ready for QE2 - figures as bad as this will be used as a trigger/justification IMO

Bingo ... seems like the Gold bull might have some way to run too, as a result.

The question is, how long before the next few hundred billion quid of freshly minted money starts to work its 'magic' like the last lot did? After all it boosted markets, pushed up the prices of commodities, sent gold rocketing and (eventually) put a false floor under house prices.

We could be in for a rollercoaster set of market graphs with the peaks and troughs getting ever closer as each batch of QE reduces its potency, demanding more frequent and bigger print runs. End game is ever debasing currency and eventual out of control inflation.

[Pent Up]

No cigar till its yoy negative..

Volumes so low stats are a bit dubious, I felt that on the 'bounce' I feel that now. A good day never the less.

Nice to see 500+ users reading the thread.

It's going to take a big rise next month not to go year on year negative.

Actual year on year, not 3 month average yoy which Halifax uses is already negative

[Timm]

Interesting article. thanks for posting it.

QE in November?

"There is a chance that Posen might be able to secure a majority to vote with him on QE," former policy maker David Blanchflower wrote in an article for the New Statesman. "But more likely is that the MPC will agree to an additional 50 billion pounds worth of asset purchases at its November meeting, when it will produce its latest forecast."

That's my take too.

How long does the funny money take to get into the market?

[babesagainstmachines]

I was just getting ready to hibernate for the winter and heard a commotion outside the cave. Is something going on?

[mirage]

Classic pic!

[Brave New World]

All around the country property owners are puzzled. 'Hmmm, prices haven't gone down around here, must be the North, South, East, West, Somewhere Else definitely not here'

On the other hand, what would the reaction on this site be if the figure had been 3.6% up.

It's regional, it's skewed by only big houses selling, it's wrong, it's VI bull, it's not what I'm seeing etc.

Trying to remain dispassionate for a moment - the reaction here proves the old adage ... 'people believe what they want to believe'

Sentiment is perhaps true with our readiness to embrace 'positive' news.

BUT i am only seeing increasing volume and price drops in an affluent and very attractive area. I have not seen for years now this perceived bounce we had over the last couple of years - i have not seen prices rising at all.

And given the very nature of taking a sample of property and halving its data set combined with FTBs being KO'd and a sustained demand higher up i think we have seen a lot of figires skewed the other way with those with liquid cash (older and bigger property purchases) still buying and FTBs not.

Nonetheless it is a monumental figure.

[200p]

Here's some more images, now i have a little audience..

^You like the little illuminati symbol in the top left eh?

[leicestersq]

So Mumsnet went into 'meltdown' on the news that Child Benefit was being withdrawn.

Now HPC'ers get a taste of 'meltdown'.

Next I am expecting Gold Bulletin boards to go into meltdown as the price really starts to take off.

[Kyoto]

Very true.

Pure comedy.

I disagree.

1% either way is 'meh and there isn't much to say about it. 3.6% either way is very significant.

I'd go out and buy this week off the back of a 3.6% rise.

Oh, and I'm not saying that HPI and Nationwide are conspiring () on the figures, but they clearly have a motivation to paint them in a positive light as possible. Publishing this number must have broken their heart.

[VeryMeanReversion]

Who is going to volunteer to work out how much the Wilsons have just lost?

[Tired of Waiting]

That's my take too.

How long does the funny money take to get into the market?

Good question. I don't know. Sorry.

- - -

On another topic, right now, in this thread:

"508 User(s) are reading this topic 126 members, 375 guests, 7 anonymous users"

I tried to read this thread from the beginning, but it was growing much faster than I was able to read it. So, about half way, I jumped here.

[xux42]

Very happy not be sitting on a large mortgage right now.

Wahay!!

Mucho respect to everyone here who have doggedly kept the faith in the face of ridicule.

As alluded to already, this is hammering equity.

Many thousands of people will now have to save thousands of pounds more more to get 80-90% mortgages.

Many BTL'ers loooking to roll over finance will find themselves on the wrong side of the 60% barrier.

Someone who had £15,000 equity in a £150k house now has £9,600 equity.

- That security blanket looking a bit threadbare now?

Many, many more people will now be in negative equity.

This is going to KILL demand.

FANTASTIC NEWS!!!

[Pent Up]

All around the country property owners are puzzled. 'Hmmm, prices haven't gone down around here, must be the North, South, East, West, Somewhere Else definitely not here'

On the other hand, what would the reaction on this site be if the figure had been 3.6% up.

It's regional, it's skewed by only big houses selling, it's wrong, it's VI bull, it's not what I'm seeing etc.

Trying to remain dispassionate for a moment - the reaction here proves the old adage ... 'people believe what they want to believe'

If this had been 3.6% up I would have given up hope. It would have finished the HPC dream once an for all.

But is was down!

[lulu]

A friend of mine who is denial about the severity of what is coming WAS going to put her house on t' market after Christmas. I emailed her the good news this morning. I suspect her house will be on the market before noon--along with tens of thousands of others.

Which will lead to the VI's trotting out some nonsense about the increase in houses on the market being a sign of confidence.

Seriously this is fantastic news and should be on the front page of every paper. The cost associated with the price of a basic human need has decreased - the media should be celebrating - as they would if this were food/fuel/beer but instead we have the usual VI's talking about softening of prices and recovery expected in x number of months.

Don't forget everyone that this is happening with a background of record low interest rates, imagine the 'easing of prices' we would see if IR's where anywhere near normal.

Thank you Gordon Brown, you really did fulfil your promise of 'not letting house prices get out of control and affect the stability of the British economy' (first speech as Chancellor 1997) . The British economy is fcuked largely down to your policies which led to unsustainable houseprices. I sincerely hope the media pick up who is actually to blame here and it is not Mr Cameron or Osbourne. Brown is the culpable one, he could have moderated houseprices but controling lending and by policy.

[200p]

Fantastic that the next generation will have a FUTURE.

[Tired of Waiting]

Wahay!!

Mucho respect to everyone here who have doggedly kept the faith in the face of ridicule.

As alluded to already, this is hammering equity.

Many thousands of people will now have to save thousands of pounds more more to get 80-90% mortgages.

Many BTL'ers loooking to roll over finance will find themselves on the wrong side of the 60% barrier.

Someone who had £15,000 equity in a £150k house now has £9,600 equity.

- That security blanket looking a bit threadbare now?

Many, many more people will now be in negative equity.

This is going to KILL demand.

FANTASTIC NEWS!!!

Very good points xux42! Thanks for that!

[Tired of Waiting]

Fantastic that the next generation will have a FUTURE.

Hear him, hear him!