Nationwide +1.6% August

[Brave New World]

Not a single house risen in my Yorkshire checking areas using property bee?. Loads of juicy drops.

Exactly when i see stuff rising on mass for 4-6 months, then i will panic. Have not seen any rises for months in my sample area.

Very likely to be the lower nos. of transactions skewing figures but most strange that we have had a quarter of rises yet i have not seen this reflected in prices on rightmove. Anyone else seen the rises?

[GordonBrownSpentMyFuture]

I will emigrate before I take out a huge mortgage secured against an asset that is worth at least half the amount of the debt.

(Of course when I say "before" I mean "rather than" and not "prior to" )

And if I don't emigrate, and prices continue to rise indefinitely, I'll just rent forever. Screw it. You can't take it with you and I'd rather pay £600 pcm in rent than £1200 pcm in mortgage repayments. At least that frees up an extra £600 a month to go out and actually live a little rather than work until I'm 70 because I have no other choice. Home-ownership isn't what it used to be.

Of course, I don't think any of that will happen. IMO, this is going to be a W-shaped depression/recession. 2007-2009 made up the first V of the W, 2010 onwards will make up the other V.

And if I'm wrong I'm wrong. But I'm just not prepared to follow the herd, play the game and pay £200,000 for a home that cost £80,000 seven years ago. It's just not going to happen.

And if all FTBers continue to strike, as we are doing, then we simply won't have to. The market will correct itself eventually and desperate sellers holding on for 2007 prices will have to repay their own massive debt rather than pass it on to us.

[MarkyB]

A friend of mine just build his own house.

I dont understand how everyone on here is moaning about how much a house costs, when they can just get one built...

Oh i forgot you have to buy the land, ge the permision, get an architect, and builders who are reliable, spend 6 month project managing it, and they finance somewhere else to live in the meantime.

I personally think that the house prices are not rising, I just think with interest rates virtually zero, and banks unstable, people think bricks and mortar is as safe as houses by comparison, and inflation proof.

Inflation is our next problem, buy a house to shield yourself!!!!

Joke...

[Houses_Burning]

The market has been manipulated in the short term for political ends, i think this is all going to end in tears sooner rather than later. They can keep adding fuel to the fire but at some point the fuel (money) will run out and the fire (house prices) will stop burning. Lets rememeber that the banks went bust due to the reckless lending. The government CANNOT reintroduce these practices with the banks however much they want to unless they want it to happen all over again. Real house prices will need to fall alot more before the economy gets any better.

[IMHAL]

During the 90s crash the longest dead cat bounce was 4 months in the nationwide data.

We are now up 6 months in a row.

And there were never 2 calendar quarters in a row where prices went up, the first time that

happened was in 1996 when the market started its 12 year up trend.

The second quarter of 2009 (Apr-Jun) was up.

And unless september comes in as a big down month, the third quarter is going to be an up quarter too.

The authorities, the BoE, most of the population want this. There appears to be nothing to stop the momentum - even the small matter of restrictive loans will be cast aside as the gov appears to encourage them to get back to reckless level.

I think the system is fcuked - we are in break-up boom - they just don't know it.

[vega]

this seems like really really bad news but its still summer. I expect September may be positive too -

the real game begins in October, November and December when the sun disappears. I think we all know that deep down, bulls and bears alike

Edited August 27, 2009 by vega

[BernieT]

Not very happy.

I took a gamble in renting and I'm not so sure I was right now.

Me too - i think that this is the final nail in the coffin for us.

I feel it's time to go looking for somewhere to buy.

I was expecting this crash to last much longer than this!!

[DownsizingDiva]

Me too - i think that this is the final nail in the coffin for us.

I feel it's time to go looking for somewhere to buy.

I was expecting this crash to last much longer than this!!

That's EXACTLY what the Government want everyone to do. Sure, figures are very disappointing today, but the fundamentals are still there. Rising unemployment, unaffordability in terms of wages to house price ratios, etc. etc.

I am also renting, and will continue to do so until at least the GE is over and we can see which way things are going.

[Joey Buttafueco Jr]

No, the mortgage on an equivalent house in the SE is still more expensive than the rent on it. That's why we're still renting.

Not in Weybridge

[VeryMeanReversion]

As one of our resident bulls pointed out recently, the level of available credit is clearly sufficient to support rising prices.

As a bear, I have to admit this argument is true given the current lack of supply. Whilst banks are providing credit and holding back repo's, I see no reason why prices cannot rise.

As to HOW the banks can do this without breaking acceptable methods of accounting baffles me. I wonder how long they can keep it up.

VMR.

[Bloo Loo]

As one of our resident bulls pointed out recently, the level of available credit is clearly sufficient to support rising prices.

As a bear, I have to admit this argument is true given the current lack of supply. Whilst banks are providing credit and holding back repo's, I see no reason why prices cannot rise.

As to HOW the banks can do this without breaking acceptable methods of accounting baffles me. I wonder how long they can keep it up.

VMR.

lets not also forget the various "Homebuy" schemes that many have run out of money, although some are still running on sme newbuild sites.

with the low volumes, these schemes would now be reflected in the figures...100% mortgages courtesy of HM Government.

[sbn]

The Auntie Pravda has nearly w4nked itself into a stupor I see.

God I detest that pinko bunch of luvvies.

All "nation speaking peace unto nation"

And F**king the next generation into debt missery to line their own pockets.

Disgusting!

Edited August 27, 2009 by sbn

[bear_or_bull]

Not in Weybridge

Not in weybridge really? Have you any examples?

I have friends in Weybridge and they're house, whilst... not bad, is not exactly on the cheap side.

(besides, over the lifetime of a loan it is very, very rarely cheaper to rent. But that doesn't mean you won't be poor if you buy).

[piece of paper]

The famous graph looks like it is about to be tested. Is this a return to normal?

p-o-p

[dapperdave]

I would say that we are at the stage where you can say confidently that the general population would think we are back to normal with HPI.

[Mammon]

The famous graph looks like it is about to be tested. Is this a return to normal?

p-o-p

With all this government intervention I think the return to normal phase could last several years.

Just like the stock market between 2003 and 2007.

Edited August 27, 2009 by Mammon

[gotout2006]

I have been watching house prices in a area in Bristol for the past 9 months

same old houses still for sale.

A friend of mine is selling a new build he bought in 2007 for £385,000 had it on the

market for 9 months for £375,000 same houses sold for £300,000 and one £330,000

in 2008 and 2009.

He said hes not going to Drop it in price.

[Joey Buttafueco Jr]

Not in weybridge really? Have you any examples?

I have friends in Weybridge and they're house, whilst... not bad, is not exactly on the cheap side.

(besides, over the lifetime of a loan it is very, very rarely cheaper to rent. But that doesn't mean you won't be poor if you buy).

1.

Asking rent £5k p/m

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-ren...y-25721672.html?

Reckon worth ~£1m

http://www.houseprices.co.uk/e.php?q=2%2C+...13+0SQ&n=10

2.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-ren...y-25494539.html?

On sale for £1m

3.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-ren...y-22811716.html?

Very similar place sold for £810k at Christmas (it was also up for rent at £4.5k)

So would need to do some digging to see how asking rent compares to actual agreed rent.

[BelfastVI]

The famous graph looks like it is about to be tested. Is this a return to normal?

p-o-p

If you overlay this graph against house prices from the 70's it fits perfectly. The 89 crash and the recent bubble fit right in. The dead Cat Bounce is also there, and about to be tested. However for the map to be correct prices would have to fall to £20k which, for me is the totally unbelievable bit.

But I do believe the current uplift is too much too soon and very worrying. And I am a VI

[Houses_Burning]

I would say that we are at the stage where you can say confidently that the general population would think we are back to normal with HPI.

Looks like the average house price in the UK will be 2 million pounds in 10 years time then. I wonder what the average wage will be?

Edited August 27, 2009 by Houses_Burning

[Guest theboltonfury]

Me too - i think that this is the final nail in the coffin for us.

I feel it's time to go looking for somewhere to buy.

I was expecting this crash to last much longer than this!!

Not possible though, as don't they still want a 20% deposit?

[MRMX9]

This story is getting little coverage on the news channels - thanks to Big brother, GCSE results and the migration figures.

[yellerkat]

And now business investment - 18.4% YoY.

HPC Thread LINK.

This is not going to end well.

[Mammon]

The famous graph looks like it is about to be tested. Is this a return to normal?

p-o-p

Actually if you price houses in gold we already had the return to normal phase a few years ago.

The market peaked at almost 700 ounces in '04.

It went down to about 450 then rallied to 550 in '07 (the return to normal blip).

It finally hit a low of 215 in '09.

I have the graph of uk house prices in gold and it looks similar to your bubble cycle graph.

Note im using quarterly data to construct the graph so its not as smooth as other graphs you might find on the net.

Edited August 27, 2009 by Mammon

[Confusion of VIs]

We are currently at around 40,000 approvals per month. It is accepted that around 70,000 approvals are needed just to SUSTAIN market prices.

Based on current data it looks like the accepted view may be wrong.