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About bear_or_bull

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  1. Wasn't it CGNAO that 1st warned of this? Protect yourself etc. Came across two references today. It's the 1st I've read about it in the MSN. From the IMF via the FT: "Fear me, for I am a liquidity-giving economy" Again, from the FT... http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ad9ffab2-4741-11df-b253-00144feab49a.html Interesting... ...
  2. Which is why averages matter. Also, you didn't buy in 2007, did you?
  3. Sorry sunshine, you're confusing real and nominal. You can't take a nominal figure and say you "had it so bad".
  4. You can't do that without inflation. Idiot. Haven't been around this site for a while and that seems to have been forgotten. It's not about magnolia paint and elbow grease, it's about inflation and money. It worked then, but not now. Applying yesterdays high inflation strategy (the property ladder) in a low inflation world just means debt - lots of it. Buying a house today really is MUCH more expensive than EVER before. End of. It's just maths. This thread reflects a gradually growing theme in the press & general conversations; something you couldn't see 5 years ago. It's the dawning re
  5. Has anyone done the maths yet on the HPI we could have from here, at current nominal interest rates, before "affordability" equals that of the last peak? I'm betting it's something crazy like 50% increase, or more. Of course by then the country will be maxed 'til our eyeballs roll back on debt and the rates will have nowhere to go for a second go at moral hazard. Unfortunately no one seems to care - cue another 5 years in the wilderness of "doom-mongery" and "pessimism" and other good poop people throw about when you don't agree with their inbred idiocy. But at 3% mortgage rates, hell -call it
  6. Look, you've got no choice. You've been done over by your government. No one reads this site. Its quality has gone markedly downhill since the "upturn". Everyone believes in the religion of HPI. Debt? Schmedt... It's a done deal. The government decided they were happy to hobble the pound and raise taxes in the future (on the young or unborn generations) rather than suffer the calamity of (shock) falling prices. Can you smell the greed? Or at least the ignorance. But who knows? Who understands out there? No one. It's now over. The shock/denial bit of the psychology curve is not the market, i
  7. Does anyone have the historic figures, going back to at least 2001 say, for actual house purchase mortgages only? As no one is MEWing any more we need to strip this part out. It might make a surprising graph, if MEW was 30% of mortgages... Perhaps things are actually "better" than they look. The more I look at it, the more I think this is a done deal. They've kicked the can 5-10 years down the road. It'll be nasty, but no one seems to care. They'd prefer social change than the pain of economic re-adjustment. Our only chance to safely rebalance the UK economy may have passed.
  8. There will be no civil war. The young have been bribed by cheap electronic tat (or some weird belief that the world is fair and this is just a misunderstanding). I mean, when was the last demonstration? The last riot? Even the last well organised campaign? I mean, they haven't even managed to get a good PR person and get some articles out. I fear they we'll get the society we deserve. It's all talk, talk, talk. I'm as guilty as any, as I simply left.
  9. It does if you have rich parents, which... he does. Jobs a goodun. And lo, the government saw this and thought that it was good. In future there will be no inheritance tax, they said, for then we shall always have prosperity (or at least, the people we know will). Another anecdote pointing the way to a new victoriana, and everyone sleepwalking into it. Cute really.
  10. Steady on - there is quite a lot happening in Europe, it's just behind the curve compared to the US. Plenty of (major) IOCs shopping around looking for the right shale. Think Poland and E. Europe. Watch the US majors slug it out. Exxon is basically sounding the death knell of convetionals with its recent purchase. All this could put the willies up the russkies (god bless 'em) when it's in their back yard though. Also there are more potential projects in, of all places, the Middle East. But you're right, i can't see us digging up dorset. I'm pretty bearish on Nat Gas prices all in all. Not s
  11. It's nice and everything. I applaud that. But revolution through facebook is a non starter. No one gets it. Most people don't know what APR is. And the modern zeitgeist means that anyone questioning HPI still gets labelled "doomsters". It's still location, location, location. The cultural shift you've described is already a done deal. Nothing is gonna change that short of some serious investment in PR and some pitchforks. And who on earth is going to do that? The generation most affected have been bribed by cheap consumer goods and the prospect of some parental handouts.
  12. Seriously - where on earth did you hear it was as big as Ghawar? Falklands has potential, but not that sort of potential, and definitely not in one field. It's all pretty hairy stuff. Working system, but challenging geology to get working fields. That said, I think the shares are worth a punt, just don't get carried away with the hyperbole...
  13. For reference, or a fact based conversation, here is a link to a meta-analysis of gasoline elasticity of demand. http://www2.cege.ucl.ac.uk/cts/tsu/papers/transprev243.pdf mind the politics, given the date of the study... but it's not that elastic. Lots of other things will give before we stop spending on oil. Like consumerism, and look where that got us. We have designed the perfect economy for not being able to deal with energy stress. Also, before getting carried away about short-term peak oil (not the concept, but the timing), think about what Iraq has to offer. If you want to keep t
  14. At $300 bbl you don't have to worry about coal, uranium, or wind getting more expensive (and thus built). We don't have the manpower, the investment capital, the capacity, or the timeframe to get something done. It's much easier just to go to war. After all it's a well tried and tested technique. Ideally you'd pick the most prospective oil rich country in the world and ensure that the global market has access to their cheaply producible reserves, driving down prices and keeping us in cheap credit, low inflation nirvana. Somewhere like... Iraq.
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