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About bear_or_bull

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  1. Wasn't it CGNAO that 1st warned of this? Protect yourself etc. Came across two references today. It's the 1st I've read about it in the MSN. From the IMF via the FT: "Fear me, for I am a liquidity-giving economy" Again, from the FT... http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ad9ffab2-4741-11df-b253-00144feab49a.html Interesting... ...
  2. Which is why averages matter. Also, you didn't buy in 2007, did you?
  3. Sorry sunshine, you're confusing real and nominal. You can't take a nominal figure and say you "had it so bad".
  4. You can't do that without inflation. Idiot. Haven't been around this site for a while and that seems to have been forgotten. It's not about magnolia paint and elbow grease, it's about inflation and money. It worked then, but not now. Applying yesterdays high inflation strategy (the property ladder) in a low inflation world just means debt - lots of it. Buying a house today really is MUCH more expensive than EVER before. End of. It's just maths. This thread reflects a gradually growing theme in the press & general conversations; something you couldn't see 5 years ago. It's the dawning realisation that things aren't the same. That they can't be. That a generation has been turned over & made to work longer and harder to pay both for shelter and to keep an older generation in the benefits to which they feel entitled. In fact there are only two options: a price adjustment (read, crash) or social change. So far, the establishment HAS prevented a crash. This may be temporary, it may not. It's genuinely too early to tell, no matter what folks say. But if they have pushed it out, if the asset rich (and there are a LOT of them) really can keep the thing going through handouts and investment, then what you're left with is a return to a pre-victorian class system. This could really happen. It is already beginning. Look around. You will NOT have the chances your parents had. Their parents bought it for them through fighting in WWII. Then that generation, and the start of x, sold it all down the swannee to keep the party going in the absence of a property functioning economy. Sad really. I'm gobsmacked people aren't downright angry. It turns out you really can bribe people with cheap tat and hypnotise them with property shows. An idiocracy.
  5. Has anyone done the maths yet on the HPI we could have from here, at current nominal interest rates, before "affordability" equals that of the last peak? I'm betting it's something crazy like 50% increase, or more. Of course by then the country will be maxed 'til our eyeballs roll back on debt and the rates will have nowhere to go for a second go at moral hazard. Unfortunately no one seems to care - cue another 5 years in the wilderness of "doom-mongery" and "pessimism" and other good poop people throw about when you don't agree with their inbred idiocy. But at 3% mortgage rates, hell -call it 4%, GBP1500 buys you a 450k house. You know someone, somewhere is gonna think a two bed house is "good value" for GBP1500 a month... ... It happened before. Don't rely on people being smart this time round. We almost learned something, but the minute it started looking better the world coughed, wiped their eyes, and moved on. And when the end comes, what do you do? I for one am not sure I want to be holding cash, and I don't want gold in the short term. Thank god I don't earn in Sterling. You can't fight the fed (or BOE).
  6. Look, you've got no choice. You've been done over by your government. No one reads this site. Its quality has gone markedly downhill since the "upturn". Everyone believes in the religion of HPI. Debt? Schmedt... It's a done deal. The government decided they were happy to hobble the pound and raise taxes in the future (on the young or unborn generations) rather than suffer the calamity of (shock) falling prices. Can you smell the greed? Or at least the ignorance. But who knows? Who understands out there? No one. It's now over. The shock/denial bit of the psychology curve is not the market, it's our reaction to the bail out. "They wouldn't dare", "oh my god, how can they do that?", "what about future taxes?", "they've only kicked the can down the road", "they've risked the our sovereign rating", "dear god, that's BOLD", "why, why, why?'".... People haven't quite realised how f*cked they are. And even if they did they'd do nowt about it. We get the government we deserve. 8-12% hpi by Q3 2010 is baked in the pie. Can you begin to imagine the general elation? Feeling the panic yet? Others will, and they'll happily sign up to a slave box and commit more of their hard earned than you will. And the genius is you have the play the game. There are no prizes for being smart. 3-5 years later it will all come crashing down hard. What do you want then? More paper money? I think not. It's over. You've been turned over. Walk away, riot, or give up. There is no try.
  7. Does anyone have the historic figures, going back to at least 2001 say, for actual house purchase mortgages only? As no one is MEWing any more we need to strip this part out. It might make a surprising graph, if MEW was 30% of mortgages... Perhaps things are actually "better" than they look. The more I look at it, the more I think this is a done deal. They've kicked the can 5-10 years down the road. It'll be nasty, but no one seems to care. They'd prefer social change than the pain of economic re-adjustment. Our only chance to safely rebalance the UK economy may have passed.
  8. There will be no civil war. The young have been bribed by cheap electronic tat (or some weird belief that the world is fair and this is just a misunderstanding). I mean, when was the last demonstration? The last riot? Even the last well organised campaign? I mean, they haven't even managed to get a good PR person and get some articles out. I fear they we'll get the society we deserve. It's all talk, talk, talk. I'm as guilty as any, as I simply left.
  9. It does if you have rich parents, which... he does. Jobs a goodun. And lo, the government saw this and thought that it was good. In future there will be no inheritance tax, they said, for then we shall always have prosperity (or at least, the people we know will). Another anecdote pointing the way to a new victoriana, and everyone sleepwalking into it. Cute really.
  10. Steady on - there is quite a lot happening in Europe, it's just behind the curve compared to the US. Plenty of (major) IOCs shopping around looking for the right shale. Think Poland and E. Europe. Watch the US majors slug it out. Exxon is basically sounding the death knell of convetionals with its recent purchase. All this could put the willies up the russkies (god bless 'em) when it's in their back yard though. Also there are more potential projects in, of all places, the Middle East. But you're right, i can't see us digging up dorset. I'm pretty bearish on Nat Gas prices all in all. Not sure I'd want to be building lots of LNG at the moment miles away from the markets. Woodside is certainly sweating. You'd have to be hoping that the shale technology doesn't work, or most of your markets are going to go away. What I'd give to be using these technology (bit of a stretch of the term to be honest) in China. 1 billion customers on your doorstep. Nice.
  11. It's nice and everything. I applaud that. But revolution through facebook is a non starter. No one gets it. Most people don't know what APR is. And the modern zeitgeist means that anyone questioning HPI still gets labelled "doomsters". It's still location, location, location. The cultural shift you've described is already a done deal. Nothing is gonna change that short of some serious investment in PR and some pitchforks. And who on earth is going to do that? The generation most affected have been bribed by cheap consumer goods and the prospect of some parental handouts.
  12. Seriously - where on earth did you hear it was as big as Ghawar? Falklands has potential, but not that sort of potential, and definitely not in one field. It's all pretty hairy stuff. Working system, but challenging geology to get working fields. That said, I think the shares are worth a punt, just don't get carried away with the hyperbole...
  13. For reference, or a fact based conversation, here is a link to a meta-analysis of gasoline elasticity of demand. http://www2.cege.ucl.ac.uk/cts/tsu/papers/transprev243.pdf mind the politics, given the date of the study... but it's not that elastic. Lots of other things will give before we stop spending on oil. Like consumerism, and look where that got us. We have designed the perfect economy for not being able to deal with energy stress. Also, before getting carried away about short-term peak oil (not the concept, but the timing), think about what Iraq has to offer. If you want to keep the world's lights on invading iraq is rational in a realpolitik kinda way. If you can keep the peace and pump the oil. http://grandemotte.wordpress.com/iraq/
  14. At $300 bbl you don't have to worry about coal, uranium, or wind getting more expensive (and thus built). We don't have the manpower, the investment capital, the capacity, or the timeframe to get something done. It's much easier just to go to war. After all it's a well tried and tested technique. Ideally you'd pick the most prospective oil rich country in the world and ensure that the global market has access to their cheaply producible reserves, driving down prices and keeping us in cheap credit, low inflation nirvana. Somewhere like... Iraq.
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