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VeryMeanReversion

Nationwide +1.6% August

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Ok, I really don't believe this now.

What I find odd is that the NW and Hali seem to have managed upticks over the spring bounce period, but when the LR data finally came in it was still negative.

Either they are approving mortgages and then withdrawing them at the last minute, and only allowing the fair valued deals through, or they are cooking the books.

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More info:

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Aug_2009.pdf

A couple of months ago, Dr Bubb said that if it gets back to £160k, it would set a new trend upwards. I wonder if he will stick to that.

I still think there is a supply crunch which is causing buyers to panic. I know several cases where buyers feel forced to purchase now since there is very little for sale. One friend went SSTC at the weekend, offerered full asking on a small 4 bed the day after it went on the market, probably around £210K.

VMR.

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Some numpty on BBC still appeared to be saying house prices up is good, although not out of the woods yet.

Yet more proof of the global recovery.

I didnt hear the guy being introduced, but BBC Breakfast had a guest on to talk about the Nationwide figures. The banner across the screen said 'Housing Expert'!

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They could rise 6% but is anyone able or willing to buy?

Still, you can't dispute this is good news for bulls. The recovery is here. I'm off to buy a yacht.

In the black country? ;)

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In the black country? ;)

Yachts are traditionally bought by the (virtually) rich-but-clueless who live inland on the premise that they will use the Range Rover Sport to tow it to a seaside town for rugged seafaring fun.

In fact, the yacht never moves.

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It is simply amazing. The figures behind the index calculations should be open to scrutiny, specially in times like these when supply is contrained to historical lows. I really would like to see what property portfolio forms the basis of August's index. Mortgages used going ahead or cancelled? house types? locations? everything. It feels like driving blind.

Edited by Old_Traveller

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_46273669_house_prices_26aug09.gif

from

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8223540.stm

This cat has been vulcanised.

VMR.

That graph is such a VI joke. Makes it look like house prices are just about back to the highs, til you realise that it's a graph of RATE OF CHANGE not the INDEX. Everyone desperately trying to make people feel wealthy again...

The real meat of the BBC article is later on where even the Nationwide economist is worried about the effect of higher interest rates.

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It seems even the Nationwide are sceptical about these figures.

Quoted from the document

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Aug_2009.pdf

… but rates are unlikely to stay this low forever

“While low interest rates have clearly played a part in reversing the downward pressure on house prices, they

are unlikely to stay at the current level forever. It is important to keep this in mind when interpreting recent

price trends.

“If the various monetary and fiscal stimulus measures that have been introduced over the last year are

successful in reviving growth on a sustained basis, then inflationary pressures will eventually re-emerge and

necessitate an increase in interest rates to more normal levels. When this happens, it will probably have the

effect of releasing additional supply back onto the market and dampening the recent rise in buyer interest.

Under such conditions, the strong price increases of recent months would become difficult to sustain. At the

moment, a rise in interest rates is probably still some way off. However, the eventual exit from exceptionally

loose monetary policy could make the recovery in the housing market bumpier than some might expect after

the last few months of price increases.â€

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That graph is such a VI joke. Makes it look like house prices are just about back to the highs, til you realise that it's a graph of RATE OF CHANGE not the INDEX. Everyone desperately trying to make people feel wealthy again...

The real meat of the BBC article is later on where even the Nationwide economist is worried about the effect of higher interest rates.

Oh dear where were you for the last 18 months? That graph has been used regularly.

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I didnt hear the guy being introduced, but BBC Breakfast had a guest on to talk about the Nationwide figures. The banner across the screen said 'Housing Expert'!

I agree. It's far too easy to present oneself (or be presented) as a 'Housing Expert'. You only have to look on this site for the evidence.

Edited by The Realist

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Oh dear where were you for the last 18 months? That graph has been used regularly.

Agreed. We are looking at the same calculations on the way up as we did on the way down. Pretending the figures have somehow been 'massaged' without proof just makes us look stupid. For the moment house prices are rising again.

From a personal point of view, this is a major setback. Things were starting to look interesting, however, now it is back to the simple argument that it is more expensive to buy than rent. I know this vaires around the country and in the South East rents are higher I think. However, in the North, house prices are massively higher than rental prices, so it looks like a further year of staying where I am.

Edit: to add verbs and other words frequently used when constructing a sentence.

Edited by the end is a bit nigher

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I agree. It's far too easy to present oneself (or be presented) as a 'Housing Expert. You only have to look on this site for the evidence.

In the same way it is easy to present oneself as the definitive "realist"?

Edited by kilroy

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In the black country? ;)

I don't live in the black country... but I take your point. ;)

Yachts are traditionally bought by the (virtually) rich-but-clueless who live inland on the premise that they will use the Range Rover Sport to tow it to a seaside town for rugged seafaring fun.

In fact, the yacht never moves.

Yup. That's my intention. Just stick it on the drive next to the 4x4 to give the impression of wealth. Ridiculous to actually use it. That sea water ruins stuff you know. Ah the sea. I get to see it sometimes when I take the train down to Weston-super-Mare...

An extra 1.6% on the value of my property. Wonderful. I'm going to withdraw £20 from the cash point this morning and rub it over my groin. I also intend to withdraw that extra 1.6% of equity from my mortgage this afternoon and buy myself a dapper little scooter.

And I can do all this because I am considerably richer than yow are.

Oh wait. I rent. Sh!t. Stoopid renter. What do I know.

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