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House Price Crash Forum


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  1. Q1 2022 NIRPPI REPORT Link Quarter Change +3.4% Annual Change +10.4% Provisional Number of Sales 5,436, down 28% on Q1 2021
  2. Q4 2021 NIRPPI REPORT Link Quarter Change +0.1% Annual Change +7.9% Provisional Number of Sales 6,150 for quarter 29,769 for year (highest since 2006)
  3. I expect he is just crying out for stock. My advice is never to listen to either car sales men or estate agents.
  4. NI House prices have gained aprox £61k in the past 7 years since the bottom in 2013. However, current average prices are still aprox £65k below what they were at the height of the boom in 2007. Therefore, even if house prices were to continue on this path, which almost certain not to happen, it would not be until 2028 until we reached the peek prices again, some 21 years later. For the record I don't believe that will happen unless general inflation (including wages) takes over.
  5. Q3 2021 NIRPPI REPORT Link Quarter Change +3% Annual Change +10.7% Number of Sales 7,529
  6. We have next to no area plans and most zoned land is exhausted. there has been constraint on supply for years. of course it will have an impact.
  7. Q2 2021 NIRPPI REPORT Link Quarter Change +2.9% Annual Change +9% Number of Sales 7,187
  8. The 2007 crash was fueled by a credit boom with the banks pushing out debt with few questions asked with valuers egar to rubber stamp this. The price of property had little connection to the cost of construction. The banks are certainly not doing that now and NI houseprices (thankfully) are no where near 2007 prices. Prices today would have to grow by over 50% to reach 2007 levels. What we have is a massive shortage of supply coupled with a boom in demand caused mainly by a change in lifestyle choices as a result of lockdown (my opinion). Low interest rates (10y fixed repayment at sub 4%) means the cost of ownership is much less than the cost of renting in many cases and this fuels decisions. We are also seeing a massive increase in cost of construction. I am hoping some of this will ease but it will never return to where it was with the cost to construct increasing by around 10%.
  9. Yes, if the garage is part of the approved planning permission. Provided you first comply with any pre-commencement conditions such as forming sightlines, submitting and obtaining approval of land scaping etc. Any clause that states "before commencement of.." needs to be sorted before you excavate the foundations. You can then apply for a Commencement of Legal Development Certificate (may be slightly different wording, where Planning Service, for a fee will confirm that the Planning Approval has been legally commenced.
  10. The only impact local politicians have had on house prices in NI is their continuous practice limiting supply via no area plans and the slowest planning system in these islands. At a national level the only decision to have any impact in the Covit era was the STAMP holiday which had little impact here as it was free up to £125k in any event.
  11. I am a big fan of McWilliams but he is talking about house prices in Dublin which are on a different planet They have the surrounding areas busy de-zoning land. what could possibly go wrong. Dublin has a major housing crisis. Rents are falling with people being able to work from home but to rent a bedroom in a house was €2,400 per month and multi-national funds, who had been given major tax breaks, are buying up all the newbuild in the city. The average price in Dublin is €380,000 (£325,000), Belfast is £142,000 (43% of Dublin Prices).
  12. SDLT was free up to £125k and was 2% on anything over that to £250k. with the average NI house sale of £150k the normal SDLT payment would be £3k. Removal of this, at best should only increase prices by that £3k or 2%. I think when you get into very expensive houses this would become a factor. we are booking houses today that will complete long after this SDLT holiday is over and it is not a factor.
  13. Q1 2021 NIRPPI REPORT LINK Quarter Change +1.1% Annual Change +6% Q4 Sales figure revised up from 7,401 to 8,063 Number of sales 6,732 (Increase of 26% on Q1 last year but allowance for Covid needs to be made)
  14. The first condition on your outline approval usually gives the time scale. It normally says that you must apply for Reserved Matters within 5 years. It looks like that has happened and been approved, albeit it for a house you don't want. That new Jan 21 Full Approval will again, in the first condition give a timescale for legal commencement, normally two years. If you are to apply for a different house type it will not be under the old Outline but will be a new Full, stand alone, planning application. Obviously the precedent has been set under the current approval and as long as your scale, massing and ridge heights are not out of sync you should be ok. Your only rick is if your application is slow and is drifting towards the expiry date of the current approval. At that stage you would be advised to commence the approved house, making sure you perform all the pre-commencement conditions such as sight lines and perhaps submitting a landscape plan for approval.
  15. the only thing local politicians can do is zone more land to increase the supply of new housing but there are no votes in that.
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