Tiiiimmmmmbeeeeeeerrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

[GrillsBears]

I don't think it is in the interest of EAs to offer houses for sale at unrealistically high prices- they only earn their bread if transactions take place- and I imagine that most of them will by now be being more realistic with sellers about the likely market value of their properties.

I don't agree. I think we're seeing a phony war at the moment. Some estate agents will not have spent all the money they made during the boom years. This will allow them to continue to function for some considerable time. I'm near Reading myself and whilst some properties are beginning to slide I have been told by an estate agent not to drop the price on a property my girlfriend owns because "noone will buy it anyway" and it's "only a matter of time" and that i should rent it out....Needless to say ignored and took 15% off initial price. Still not enough will be going back to take another 10% off.

I think estate agents will be enjoying the current rush to rent. It'll be a while yet before the full horror of what they are facing sinks in. Plus of course there are still idiots out there. Houses are still selling in this area.

[peahead]

Definitely head in sand stuff for many. A few doors down the road from me is a house still for sale (will be a year next month) - dropped by 40K during that time but now priced at OIEO £180,000 (bought for £160, 4 months earlier and spent approx 15-20k on it) - probably refusing to 'lose' money on it.

Was worried that it was going to get repo'd and boarded up but apparently according to the EA it was bought for cash - I suppose there could have been money taken out of their own property which the EA wouldn't know about??!

[forcryingoutloud]

I'm starting to notice an increasing number of significant drops now in Manchester. City centre flats are going to take an absolute hammering. When I moved here I'd decided to rent, but while I was looking round a kindly EA offered me the opportunity to look at a flat on Newton Street that was for sale. Although I had no intention of buying, I thought I'd have a look out of curiosity. It was pretty shoddy, not unliveable, but definitely not a place you'd choose to live. So she told me the asking price was 120K. I just said to her, that's ridiculous, you're never going to sell it at that price, it's clearly not worth that kind of money, I wouldn't pay half that. And she assured me it was going to sell like a proverbial hot cake, that it was a good investment, etc. And I said, just wait and see. That was in May 2007, and it's still unsold now, asking price now 89K. She also told me that in that particular building, only 3 flats in the whole building were privately owned, everything else was BTL. It's just a matter of time before we see a huge number of bailouts and repossessions, I think.

I've also been monitoring one particular block of flats in Didsbury, and every flat for sale there has been cut in asking price at least slightly (some by a rather pathetic 3 or 4%, but some by up to 20%). And none of them are selling, and this is a very desirable suburb (apparently, I've only lived here for a year), so the snowball is beginning to roll down the hill. We're moving from the state of denial now, but I don't think we've fully reached anger yet. And acceptance is still a long way away for a lot of people.

Ironically, in my old home town of Grimsby, there are still several flats on the market that had been on before I sold my flat (in February 2007), and none of them have dropped the asking price at all. Well, it's not excatly the intellectual capital of Great Britain...

[Speak&Spell]

No change in Stanmore Middlesex. Rents have dropped by about 5% in the odd instance. Other than that ,houses for sale haven't budged. One 2 bed house that was on the market months ago at 250k is STILL on the market at 250k. This isn't 'it'. Long way to go still until prices fall everywhere.

[SPEN555]

Skipton (small market town in Yorkshire). It is almost as if somebody has pulled out all of the supports. If I didn't know better, I'd think that all of the estate agents have been ringing round their customers instructing them to drop the price or find a new agent.

There again, the supply of rental properties is exploding also.

I heard that The Green Partnership were closing their Skipton office and conducting business from Keighley/Bingley offices. That may have caused some movement?

[jenko3000]

Just had a quick squizz on Rightmove at Brighton. Propertybee shows three 30 grand drops (210 down to 180) on page 1 alone.

[red]

Some people still just don't get it...or are simply greedy:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-106...=1&tr_t=buy

It wasn't selling at 12.5 million so what shall we do...? Raise the asking price to 15 million. Genius.

[swissy_fit]

Did my usual search on rightmove again today after a while where asking prices seem to be stagnant but nothing selling. Anyway, this time, I found that almost overnight, nearly all of my bellweather/watchlist properties have been reduced, some by significant amounts.

This. Is. It.

This is not "It".

"It" has only happened for sh*t properties, mostly in Northern sh*tholes.

Show me evidence of the crash anywhere in the South with semi-civilised neighbours, good schools, rare pitbulls and pavement pizzas every 100m instead of every 10m.

Yes prices have eased from the silly-b*ggers prices last year, but only people who are being forced to sell are taking a big hit if they can't find a sucker.

The southern middle-classes are waiting for GB to ride to the rescue and inflate away their debts - and he will IMO.

He's dead meat if he doesn't, politicians don't care about the long term.

Northerners with vulture funds who aren't too picky about the neighbours can begin looking IMO, Southerners may find GB inflates away your funds' value before your dream house in Oxford or Bath is in reach.

[The Inside Man]

About time.. prices in Stockton Heath and Grappenhall are way too high still.

I agree... and I'd add Appleton too.

But I'm still seeing prices unchanged from 6, 12 and 18 months ago as houses languish on the market in the 500-800k range. I think a lot of people put their houses on to see if they could cash in on the HPI, but haven't dropped them in line with the HPC. I hope they take 20% off soon, then another 20%, and another...

Interestingly, I recently saw an 800k property that needed a LOT of work. Ok, in current prices it would probably be on nearer the 1m mark with the work done, but it's been on 18 months already and is going nowhere fast. I offered 650k, 18% off list, and although the EA wasn't surprised I was given a firm "I don't think so" by the vendor, with the impression conveyed that it was an insult. Maybe they will come back to me in a few months...

[campervanman]

Skipton (small market town in Yorkshire). It is almost as if somebody has pulled out all of the supports. If I didn't know better, I'd think that all of the estate agents have been ringing round their customers instructing them to drop the price or find a new agent.

There again, the supply of rental properties is exploding also.

I've noticed too in West Wales where I've been keeping an eye on. Some agents now have a "reduced" section on their websites for sellers who have woken up to the new reality. Where prices have dropped by 15%+ there is some interest. It's now possible to find 2 bed properties in Ceredigion around the 100k mark - almost affordable.

[expatowner]

This is not "It".

"It" has only happened for sh*t properties, mostly in Northern sh*tholes.

Agree entirely.

I keep an eye on E14 (London docklands) and prices have not dropped at all.

[nikaso]

This is not "It".

"It" has only happened for sh*t properties, mostly in Northern sh*tholes.

Skipton is about as far from a "Northern sh*thole" as you can get, its primarily populated by middle class high earners and even has a Betty's tea room

I personally am looking at properties in south Leeds (which in some areas is a sh*thole) and they are usually only doing a token 3-5% drop, the odd house with 15% plus knocked off was pie-in-the-sky priced anyway.

So i agree it hasn't happened yet but the Skipton info is good news.

[Fergie]

My vague prediction over the past few months is that the end of 2008 (Sept-Dec) will see reality hit. I suspect over the past 6 months or so sellers and agents have been in a form of denial, thinking it's a blip and it'll all be over soon. But the end of July was when huge numbers of fixed rates came to an end, and people struggling with mortgages they can't pay won't be able to hold on too long.

Round about now is when students are flooding into student towns, to I can well imagine sellers and agents (both sales and lettings) wanting to maintain a status quo in prices hoping that will bring back business as parents buy and students rent. If (and when) that doesn't help the situation, and an increasing number of properties are coming in and not selling, that will be the point where denial starts to lift, and as it approaches Xmas, that's when sellers will start getting desperate.

That's my vauge and unsupportable theory anyway - big drops between uni starting and Xmas...

Edited August 20, 2008 by Fergie

[The Inside Man]

Agree entirely.

I keep an eye on E14 (London docklands) and prices have not dropped at all.

Yes, but then again nothing is selling either!

Might be something to do with the local population. The docklands is full of BTL (heavily leveraged, and therefore can't afford to drop) and young mortgagees that have never experienced a correction ("what do you mean, Kirsty told me that this would only go up in value...") - therefore they can't drop or won't drop, but then again they won't sell either. Until their bank makes them redundant and then they will dump it fast, or be repossessed. Then you'll see the drops.

BTW, I've spent years working in WC2, EC1, EC2 and E14... and I'd take my northern s***hole over these areas anyday. I can walk to my pub without getting mugged, go running without having to take mace, and the last graffitti I saw was at an art exhibition. The reason we spread the rumour that it's grim up north was to keep southerners from getting on a train out of Euston and overcrowding our towns and villages.

[expatowner]

Might be something to do with the local population. The docklands is full of BTL (heavily leveraged, and therefore can't afford to drop) and young mortgagees that have never experienced a correction ("what do you mean, Kirsty told me that this would only go up in value...") - therefore they can't drop or won't drop, but then again they won't sell either. Until their bank makes them redundant and then they will dump it fast, or be repossessed. Then you'll see the drops.

What does redundancy stand at today?

We dont hear much news about it rising.

Full employment means people wont need to move, they may want to move but unless they drop the price they cant.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

This is not "It".

"It" has only happened for sh*t properties, mostly in Northern sh*tholes.

Show me evidence of the crash anywhere in the South with semi-civilised neighbours, good schools, rare pitbulls and pavement pizzas every 100m instead of every 10m.

Yes prices have eased from the silly-b*ggers prices last year, but only people who are being forced to sell are taking a big hit if they can't find a sucker.

The southern middle-classes are waiting for GB to ride to the rescue and inflate away their debts - and he will IMO.

He's dead meat if he doesn't, politicians don't care about the long term.

Northerners with vulture funds who aren't too picky about the neighbours can begin looking IMO, Southerners may find GB inflates away your funds' value before your dream house in Oxford or Bath is in reach.

You want to see this: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-997...=4&tr_t=buy

This house in Kingswood Surrey ( a fairly exclusive area, many £2.5m+ houses) has fallen from originally £1.955m, though we think that was a typo as it next went to £1.5995m (I didn't get this first change captured in my property bee software). But since then it has fallen as shown in my property bee output down from £1.5995m to £995k in several stages. Granted it was over priced to start with, but a few guys who know the area reckoned it would have got £1.3m last summer, so either way the owner has lost at least 25%, but in reality deals are going through 10% below asking price.

At the moment the only house that are selling are the ones with substantial cuts, and with agents getting more desperate, but with reduced competition as other agents close branches, they are able to exert a lot more pressure on sellers. Some are now even refusing instructions where the vendor won't reduce their price.

Output from Property bee (price logging software for the Firefox browser)

29th Aug 2008 05:41:14

* Status changed: from 'Available' to 'Sold STC'

* Subtitle changed: from '5 bedroom detached' to '£995,000'

16th Aug 2008 14:06:49

* Subtitle changed: from '£995,000' to '5 bedroom detached'

14th Aug 2008 06:20:28

* Subtitle changed: from '5 bedroom detached' to '£995,000'

5th Aug 2008 07:37:38

* Subtitle changed: from '£995,000' to '5 bedroom detached'

3rd Aug 2008 09:02:44

* Subtitle changed: from '5 bedroom detached' to '£995,000'

3rd Aug 2008 08:59:18

* Subtitle changed: from '£995,000' to '5 bedroom detached'

2nd Aug 2008 15:24:10

* Subtitle changed: from '5 bedroom detached' to '£995,000'

2nd Aug 2008 08:02:42

* Price changed: from 'Guide Price £1,100,000' to '£995,000'

26th Jul 2008 18:41:05

* Detailed Description found: Located on one of Kingswood's premier roads, this fine detached home offers five bedrooms in the main house with a further annexe room that could be used as bedroom six. Approached via a gated drivewa...

26th Jul 2008 10:51:25

* Price changed: from '£1,250,000' to 'Guide Price £1,100,000'

29th May 2008 05:49:34

* Price changed: from '£1,450,000' to '£1,250,000'

28th Mar 2008 22:45:25

* Price changed: from '£1,599,950' to '£1,450,000'

9th Mar 2008 20:34:38

* Agents Address found: 1 Station Approach, Tadworth, KT20 5AG

2nd Mar 2008 15:11:41

* Agent found: Frost Brothers

* Agents Location found: Tadworth

* Agents Telephone found: 08454086122

* Brief Description found: Located on one of Kingswood's premier roads, this fine detached home offers five bedrooms in the main house with a further annexe room that could be used as bedroom six. Approached via a gated drivewa...

* Price found: £1,599,950

* Status found: Available

* Subtitle found: 5 bedroom detached

* Title found: KINGSWOOD

Edited August 29, 2008 by mikelivingstone

[libspero]

Interestingly, I recently saw an 800k property that needed a LOT of work. Ok, in current prices it would probably be on nearer the 1m mark with the work done, but it's been on 18 months already and is going nowhere fast. I offered 650k, 18% off list, and although the EA wasn't surprised I was given a firm "I don't think so" by the vendor, with the impression conveyed that it was an insult. Maybe they will come back to me in a few months...

Thanks for sharing your local experience.

Interesting, I've not actually approached any EAs yet.. I expect I will wait at least another year before I even start to look. I think that the problem with looking so close to the top is that sellers have yet to adjust their expectations. I am expecting a lot of properties to come off the market when people realise that they can't sell for what they think it's worth.. they would rather stay put than lose face.

Then you will be left with the real motivated sellers. If you do want to look now it might be worth mentioning to the EA that you are really only interested in motivated sellers, you will only consider houses discounted by at least 20%. They probably have a good feel for who really wants to sell. Just watch out for them trying to mark up the prices in order to offer you the discount. Property bee is pretty good for Stockton Heath, Grappenhall, Appleton etc.

[the primitive]

Did my usual search on rightmove again today after a while where asking prices seem to be stagnant but nothing selling. Anyway, this time, I found that almost overnight, nearly all of my bellweather/watchlist properties have been reduced, some by significant amounts.

This. Is. It.

Hmmmm I don't see it. Cack all is being reduced where i live (a paltry 1 out of 125 in the last Property Bee weekly search i did - and that by 3%). In fact the number of properties for sale is going down, and several are going to sold STC. I am simply not seeing HPC where I live (east herts). COME ON YOU F*CKERS REDUCE THE PRICES!!!

[red]

This is not "It".

"It" has only happened for sh*t properties, mostly in Northern sh*tholes.

Show me evidence of the crash anywhere in the South with semi-civilised neighbours, good schools, rare pitbulls and pavement pizzas every 100m instead of every 10m.

East Finchley, N2. Very solid, affluent suburb of North London. Falls of 10-15% on last year's prices are common. Here's one example, still for sale:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-176...=8&tr_t=buy

There are many more like this.

Yes prices have eased from the silly-b*ggers prices last year, but only people who are being forced to sell are taking a big hit if they can't find a sucker.

And that's all it takes. Those who have to sell are setting the market price, not those who withdraw from the market thinking it'll blow over by next year.

[bagsos]

I've also been monitoring one particular block of flats in Didsbury, and every flat for sale there has been cut in asking price at least slightly (some by a rather pathetic 3 or 4%, but some by up to 20%). And none of them are selling, and this is a very desirable suburb (apparently, I've only lived here for a year), so the snowball is beginning to roll down the hill. We're moving from the state of denial now, but I don't think we've fully reached anger yet. And acceptance is still a long way away for a lot of people.

Didbsury was desirable when I lived there. We (ex and I) sold a house in Didsbury in 2004, banking a 322% profit since buying it in 1996. The same house very recently came back on the market; the new owners put it up initially for 10% more than the 2004 price, dropped this to 5% more than the 2004 price 2 weeks later and sold it instantly. Bearing in mind the people to whom we sold had actually spent some money on it (new kitchen replacing 1970's wreck, new garden fence (120' garden so not cheap) 2 new bathrooms), I cannot believe they made any money at all, even before taking into account legals and stamp duty. We are to my mind back to 2004 prices at least in Didsbury, and the owners of my old place seem to have got to the acceptance phase very quickly, although I understand they have already emigrated so it may be easier to get there for them.

[NotMyHouse]

Skipton is about as far from a "Northern sh*thole" as you can get, its primarily populated by middle class high earners and even has a Betty's tea room

Nikaso, you aren't by any chance confusing Skipton with Ilkley? Skipton is more Yorkshire market town with a wide socio-economic mix from scallies to solicitors. Ilkley, however, is known for being "fur coat and no knickers" and is very wealthy. Ilkley also has a Betty's.

[billyslad]

Hmmmm I don't see it. Cack all is being reduced where i live (a paltry 1 out of 125 in the last Property Bee weekly search i did - and that by 3%). In fact the number of properties for sale is going down, and several are going to sold STC. I am simply not seeing HPC where I live (east herts). COME ON YOU F*CKERS REDUCE THE PRICES!!!

[billyslad]

Hmmmm I don't see it. Cack all is being reduced where i live (a paltry 1 out of 125 in the last Property Bee weekly search i did - and that by 3%). In fact the number of properties for sale is going down, and several are going to sold STC. I am simply not seeing HPC where I live (east herts). COME ON YOU F*CKERS REDUCE THE PRICES!!!

Typical East Herts ,around Bishops Stortford they are all obsessed with how much their house was worth ( or not ) .It will take a lot for reality to set in around there, they all kid themselves that the airport ( that they all object to ) will provide them a unique safety net ,wakey wakey ...........

[polkadotspeedo]

How does one calculate what a house is really worth?

Is there an absolute house price that can serve as a standard for comparison? I tried searching this forum for an answer but could not find one clear answer. Some say that an (average) and reasonable house price is about 2.5-3.5x the (average) salary. Shouldn't median be used instead of mean (which I presume what "average" means)?

If a house is only worth what the buyer can pay, then all talks about house price increase/decrease/crash does not appear tangible to me as the relative time points keep shifting. Statements such as "house price crashed by 10% compared with last year, or last quarter, or last month etc., " are ambiguous at best.

If there is already a thread talking about this, please show the link.

[Lumsden]

How does one calculate what a house is really worth?

Is there an absolute house price that can serve as a standard for comparison? I tried searching this forum for an answer but could not find one clear answer. Some say that an (average) and reasonable house price is about 2.5-3.5x the (average) salary. Shouldn't median be used instead of mean (which I presume what "average" means)?

If a house is only worth what the buyer can pay, then all talks about house price increase/decrease/crash does not appear tangible to me as the relative time points keep shifting. Statements such as "house price crashed by 10% compared with last year, or last quarter, or last month etc., " are ambiguous at best.

If there is already a thread talking about this, please show the link.

Sorry, to be picky. But a house is only worth what the buyer WANTS to pay. I could have afforded to buy an over priced asset 2 - 3 years ago, but it wasn't worth it.

What a buyer CAN pay got us into this mess. The Bank will lend it to me so it must be OK.