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GrillsBears

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Everything posted by GrillsBears

  1. My parents lived in the states for 15 years. $1k covered the bare minimum for my mother (healthy 45 year old). Unless you get healthcare for work covering a family will be more than that I reckon.
  2. Er did surely. I find your mentality worrying. As Abe Lincoln said. "how many legs does a dog have if you call a tail a leg? Four, calling a tail a leg doesn't make it one." Labour have made everyone poor. They have made the next generation poor too. We just haven't seen it yet.
  3. Commonly "debt revulsion" is used to refer to the populace is it not? What you're talking about is credit revulsion? It could be a mechanism for further falls but it's not the same as the populace deciding that debt poses an unacceptable risk / burden is it?
  4. Wow! You're actually a hero. Actually, I don't feel attacked most of the time. Part of learning is hypothesising to see what opposing views can be gleaned. The alternative is to just ignore any counter arguments. Which appears to be your chosen methodology. I could write a dances with sheeple bot to do your job for you if it'll save you some time?
  5. What's your plan? Drag me down to moron level and then beat me with experience? I give up. I will however reiterate my earlier thoughts. You are someone that adds no value to this site whatever.
  6. Eh? You honestly think if they were still passing out 125% loans people wouldn't be taking them? There is no revulsion at all. Personal debt is being paid down due to massive cuts in mortgage payments. Given the size of mortgage debt it's not surprising that people aren't jumping in to acquire more. This recession has been characterised by credit availability being constrained. In the aftermath there is less appetite for debt but given the size of the crisis there's still significant mortgage activity. Given that you accept that Governments will continue to act irrationally why do you believe they will suddenly abandon their key policies? Some of which involve directly intervening in the housing market? Without forced sellers there will be no crash, I am absolutely certain of this.
  7. I tend to get angry when idiots assert their righteousness without evidence. Please show you evidence that house prices are currently falling. Please show that mortgage finance isn't available to support prices at these transaction levels. Finally please try and grow up. You are exactly what has gone wrong with this site. You contribute nothing to the debate. You make blithe assertions and then attempt to shore up those positions with aggression.
  8. That's you argument is it? Why not just stick your tongue out and go "na na na na na na I'm not listening" I have no interest in property. I own mine outright and have significant cash reserves that would allow me to survive pretty much any shock to the financial system. I abhor the Labour party and its policies. Additionally I see no evidence whatever that hpi is a positive for wider society. Where I differ from you is the fact I'm not in denial. You are. House prices at current transaction levels are rising. Please explain why a vendor cognisant of this fact would entertain an offer of 30% off?
  9. You mean people that have seen through your idiot bluster? Perhaps people are finally sick of being told that house price armageddon is looming only to find out it isn't. You may be happy never to participate in the housing market again. That's your choice. The vast majority of the public can and will. That's what makes me laugh about some hpcers the assumption that it'll nicely fall in your laps and you'll be picking up properties at 40% off. That assumes there isn't a whole cadre of people that aren't as bearish as you are. Which of course there are. The hpc extremists have effectively decided not to participate yet are happy to advise others how to participate. It is frankly laughable. The chain of events required to lead to such falls must include debt revulsion. Where's the evidence of that? This place used to have some high quality posters who could explain the mechanisms and methods by which a crash would occur. Strangely they all went a bit quiet when prices did fall by 20% and many declared that they would buy at that level. Then the hpc doomsters effectively mounted a noise campaign driving some erudite people away. Now only the loudest and bitterest remain. No analysis, no facts just faith that it's just about to happen and bitterness that it isn't happening now. Any opposing view is assaulted as either a VI trying to talk the market up or absurdly, Labour party paid employees trying to do the same. It's a parade of wishful thinkers assuring each other that they are in fact correct. Having driven off all opposition even the slightly less mental McTavish types, they now stand unopposed. Which is funny given that Hamish's predictions have been pretty much correct thus far. Sock puppets indeed.
  10. Don't worry about it Mikey. You have hit the nail on the head. The loudest voices on this thread are the most bitter and deluded. We were told that last year was the start and further falls were inevitable. Then it was wait until winter. Now it's wait till the GE, IR raises, Bond vigilantes etc. etc. All the time saying that what is happening isn't happening. On low supply houses are rising. Offers of 30% now will be laughed at. Almost every single one will be treated with utter derision. There are few forced sales and their limited number is supporting prices. Banner might be right, In fact house prices might even fall 99% the year after next. At the same time I might be going out with Kelly Brook and my hair will have grown back. However, now sentiment is largely positive and those that are participating in the market have finance to enable that participation. Making stupid offers will just piss off the vendor and the estate agent. 30% isn't a sensible opening gambit. It just makes you look like a dick.
  11. I saw this earlier and can't believe it hasn't attracted more comment. Basically the BBC were saying that as long as free money was available all would be fine. The builders have bought land at bubble prices and as my dad would have said are proper ******ed if people don't spend bubble money. Basically the current builders need to go bust, their land banks need to be released and people need to build houses that people can afford with the finance genuinely available. I couldn't give a ****** what Taylor Wimpey paid for a plot. That's their issue. If they paid too much, ****** 'em. What is happening here is a state bailout of house builders. It's a disgrace.
  12. Well if you are buying now you'll have to ignore people like Mr Banner. As much as he would like it to be true, sentiment has not turned. If you offer 30% below, you'll get laughed at. However, 20% off as a taster might be worth starting at. You'll still get laughed at mind. In today's climate regardless of the doom mongers here you'll be lucky to get more than 10% off. If you're a chicken you'll go in at 15% off and get 10%. If you go in at 20% you may end up paying 12% off. It's your money bargain as hard as you want.
  13. What sort of mentalness is this? What rate did you income inflate by? If 0 then house prices to you have gone up have they not?
  14. Alternatively in the months most likely to see falls none occurred, now spring will see bigger gains.
  15. The bank couldn't give a ****** about the potential losses as long as they can reclaim their money. Who knows what Mr and Mrs Numpty put up as collateral?
  16. It's simply a town / village in the SE of England. Deny all you want Pike Smith and Kemp Hunters property management Davis Tate Ballards Wentworths Stuarts Parkers (incorporating Simmons and Lawrence) So that's 8 really. You can probably work it out from that if you are so inclined. Though you could just assume that I'm making it up. Living standards can decline and certain asset prices will remain high. You are making the common mistake of assuming that a housing market requires active participation from the full spectrum of the populace. Has the last 10 years taught you nothing? The transfer of wealth to those with property from those without will continue. House prices fell reaching a nominal bottom in Feb 2008 this low will not be tested again for a decade. Real terms may differ significantly but for the vast majority of people housing will continue to be unaffordable. I have stated before I see no positives to hpi at all. That won't change a damn thing of the reality of it. That's why I am a neither. I'm not looking to invest or tell other people to do so. I believe that the property market in the U.K is a rigged game. Expecting to win in casinos is a mug's game.
  17. What? Who said anything about a mortgage. If you bought an "average" house in Feb 2008 and sold it now you'd be what 12-13% better off? Even better if you'd rented it out. The same amount of money in a bank would have attracted what? Gold?, Other currencies? Am I going mental of have the indices shown that prices have been going up? Or are we simply going to deny that it is happening? If so there's not point in contuing is there? As for risk, when entire government policy is obviously designed to protect an asset class betting against it would be foolish in my view.
  18. Er, apart from it's not performing badly at reduced supply levels despite the denial on this site.
  19. Kind of, apart from those holding up for 50% falls in the near term and the ability to purchase at this level are deluding themselves. There will be increased unemployment and reduced finance. However supply will be further constrained in part due to lack of finance and that in itself will stop any nominal HPC. It just isn't going to happen.
  20. I love the sense of certainty. Why would they? What have been the consequences so far? None that I can see, apart from the desires result of asset inflation. So you're assuming the Tories win, which they may not? There will be no emergency budget should they not win and quite possibly in a hung Parliament. For some reason you assume that those most able to protect themselves won't disadvantage others despite massive historical precedent to the contrary. People couldn't give a monkeys about facts. They would much rather aspire to riches than be told they can't have them. Politicians have to recognise this fact. You sure. The village in which I live had 6 pre crash and has 6 now. One mothballed another office that it has just reopened. Their letting arms seemed to have picked up any sales slack. There's no signs of them going anywhere. Contrary to the claims of Bull denial that seem to be all the rage hereabouts I see nothing but wishful thinking by Bears. it's just about to go wrong we hear. The Bond vigilantes will sort it, IR raises will kill the market etc. etc. All well and good but absolutely none of them have happened yet. I see no evidence they will. The U.K will undergo a decline in living standards imo this is guaranteed, but HPC? If the world's biggest banking crash can't do it, nothing can.
  21. They won't you know. The standard of living will decline by 50% over then next 10 years and the plebs will applaud as house prices at worst stagnate. Boiling a frog if you will. Drop a frog in boiling water and it will jump out. Put a frog in cold water and then boil it it'll sit there compliant till the end.
  22. There's the truth of it. This country if fuked. The client state that Brown and Labour have created are an electoral force in their own right. The only way the Tories can get in is to try and pretend they aren't going to cut job. But cut jobs they will have too. Either the IMF or international investors will demand it. However trying to get Turkeys to vote for Christmas is a forlorn hope. Even if the Turkeys are sailing on the Titanic due to sink and kill them all in 4 months time. There's simply no hope in getting Mr Diversity outreach co-ordinator to realise that he's worth absolutely ****** all to a real economy. Labour have subjugated democracy, they are a disgrace and should be out on their ear. As it stands they will win the election and complete the destruction of this nation. Anyone doubting this need only see Mandelson's invokation of patriotism this morning. What a ****. By the way the Public sector now extend to the likes of Capita. That 6 million is probably more like 8 million in reality. The state is pervasive in everything now. From parking attendants to Elf and safety types. It's a rigged game. In order to succeed the entire apparatus needs to be dismantled but that means rolling back state power. How much chance is there of that? Less chance than me banging Kelly Brook.
  23. Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha Stops pumping money in ha h ah ha hah ah Sorry. There's about as much chance of that as Andy Murray beating Roger Federer.
  24. Doesn't sound sensible to me. The Bond vigalantes thus far have been noticeable by their absence. What would trigger them to rise now? I see no evidence whatever to suggest that in the current environment Bond holders would judge the U.K to be more at risk than several other major economies. These mystical bond vigilantes are wishful thinking. As for your second point I think you underestimate the stupidity of the public. They won't care about commodity inflation as long as their "wealth" is being maintained by the mechanism of hpi. Contrary to opinion on here I do foresee wage inflation in the sectors that can afford it. This will maintain prices when supply remains low. As much as it pains me to say so the Government have engineered the soft landing the bulls were on about. There will be no nominal falls from here for several years. Those with STR funds in Sterling are in serious peril.
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