Mr Blek Posted March 8, 2006 Share Posted March 8, 2006 Imupnorth has been lucky that i've not had the chance to drive to Malton to take pictures of the 'heaving' EAs. If they're any reflection of the ones in York, they're gonna be empty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrashBear Posted March 8, 2006 Share Posted March 8, 2006 The trend across all the surveys, as you well know, is upwards thats why the 12 month averages are all +ve expect Hometrack, which is likely to go +ve in the next month or two. Now ask me a better question that is harder to answer. A crash is never very easily to predict. It happens when most of the muppets think everythings fine and dandy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dead Cat Bounce Posted March 8, 2006 Share Posted March 8, 2006 Might I suggest that the bulls take a stroll along any High Street in the UK and see how the retail sector has been shafted. After lay-offs and redundancies in the manufacturing sector the next to suffer will be retail. The only guys rubbing their hands with glee are the insolvency practitioners with individual bankruptcies and corporate liquidations setting new records month after month. Can a bull please explain to poor ignorant me how house prices can go on rising given the state of the UK economy WITHOUT any government backed spin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMupNorth Posted March 8, 2006 Author Share Posted March 8, 2006 The reason why the market is crashing? Well I wouldn't say it is crashing yet. But the turnover of sales (for the whole year) explains alot: 2005 vs 2004 - Down 17.22% 2005 vs 2003 - Down 15.04% 2005 vs 2002 - Down 21.70% Info from the Land Registry Go back to pre-boom times and tell me what you see - you wouldn't expect a normal market to look like the boom years of 2002-2004. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pluto Posted March 8, 2006 Share Posted March 8, 2006 I can't believe how much credence some people give these VI reports. Everybody knows you can say whatever you want with statistics. Does anybosdy reading this know what thwe stats mean? How they are compiled? How they are 'adjusted'? Unless you have all the answers you might as well pop into you local EA and ask if it's a good time to buy a house. Figures can be manipulated to mean a number of different things. For an accurate account of what is going on you have to poll folks that are trying to sell their house as well as those who have already sold. Like I've said before, 10% interest base interest rates are on their way. All this cheap money has to be reigned in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sammysnake Posted March 8, 2006 Share Posted March 8, 2006 simple reply...they are not rising! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Given Up Posted March 8, 2006 Share Posted March 8, 2006 It seems to be regional. Those in the South East and London post about rises and those in other parts of the country post about stagnation. I spoke to our EA today, one of the two who were selling our property, and he keeps asking if we can go with his buyer not the one from the other agent and he says he has loads of other people lined up. That's why I am worried that we have underpriced the place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMupNorth Posted March 8, 2006 Author Share Posted March 8, 2006 Imupnorth - When i read your posts you are so full of doom and gloom - we won't see the crash till after it has happened - i think it's happening now. I get the impression that because it hasn't happened yet you think it will never happen. Snap yourself out of this delusion, and cheer up! I live up in the North, and i am not seeing good news for house prices (Harrogate/Skipton down) - it can only go down. Things are not moving like they were - look at the comparison to two years ago - they were selling like hot cakes - it's going to happen. We've been stitched up for it. Please to meet you BPE, fellow Northerner. I ain't gloomy about it I can assure you ! The 'crash' will only happen if IRs go up and stay up and destroy any confidence that they will come down again. Even then, you may not be any better off as affordability may be no better. But .... Irs aren't rising and are unlikely to rise to the level sufficient to cause a crash in the forecastable future - i.e. 2 years out. Let's get this straight, House Prices are NOT going to crash at the moment, they will roughly stagnate in real terms. In nominal terms they will rise slowly. This is my opinion. House prices can crash but we need a completely diffferent economic outlook to what we've got. Even when they crash you still may not be in a position to afford one depending on what happens to wages, investments, jobs etc. Anyway, I'm off for my dinner now and ain't logging back on tonight ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Badger Posted March 8, 2006 Share Posted March 8, 2006 Dead cat bounce, back of the rollercoaster still going up while the fronts going down, bus with the gold in the front causing it to teeter up and down, up and down etc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoubleBubbleTrouble Posted March 8, 2006 Share Posted March 8, 2006 Go back to pre-boom times and tell me what you see - you wouldn't expect a normal market to look like the boom years of 2002-2004. Exactly and you can't expect a "normal market" to sustain the legacy of prices left by the boom years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted March 8, 2006 Share Posted March 8, 2006 (edited) Go back to pre-boom times and tell me what you see - you wouldn't expect a normal market to look like the boom years of 2002-2004. I knew you would say that. So here it is: 2005 vs 2004 - DOWN 17.22% 2005 vs 2003 - DOWN 15.04% 2005 vs 2002 - DOWN 21.70% 2005 vs 2001 - DOWN 14.74% 2005 vs 2000 - DOWN 1.15% 2005 vs 1999 - UP 0.97% 2005 vs 1998 - UP 9.45% I can't be bothered to go back any further! But as DoubleBubbleTrouble says... Edited March 8, 2006 by Jason Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertPaulson Posted March 8, 2006 Share Posted March 8, 2006 Please to meet you BPE, fellow Northerner. I ain't gloomy about it I can assure you ! The 'crash' will only happen if IRs go up and stay up and destroy any confidence that they will come down again. Even then, you may not be any better off as affordability may be no better. But .... Irs aren't rising and are unlikely to rise to the level sufficient to cause a crash in the forecastable future - i.e. 2 years out. What research have you uncovered on your travels that makes you think this to be true? IMHO inflationary pressures are going to be one of the key macro drivers over the next 2 years, so I would be interested to understand why you think rates either will not rise, or only rise by a token amount over that period. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
29929BlackTuesday Posted March 8, 2006 Share Posted March 8, 2006 Please to meet you BPE, fellow Northerner. I ain't gloomy about it I can assure you ! The 'crash' will only happen if IRs go up and stay up and destroy any confidence that they will come down again. Even then, you may not be any better off as affordability may be no better. But .... Irs aren't rising and are unlikely to rise to the level sufficient to cause a crash in the forecastable future - i.e. 2 years out. Let's get this straight, House Prices are NOT going to crash at the moment, they will roughly stagnate in real terms. In nominal terms they will rise slowly. This is my opinion. House prices can crash but we need a completely diffferent economic outlook to what we've got. Even when they crash you still may not be in a position to afford one depending on what happens to wages, investments, jobs etc. Anyway, I'm off for my dinner now and ain't logging back on tonight ! Sorry - I don't believe you believe what you're writing. I think you're just here to give us some meat to have a chew on. Nice idea though! Got to keep the bears growling eh? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brainclamp Posted March 8, 2006 Share Posted March 8, 2006 (edited) Interest rates rising are not enough. Houseprices may fall back, stagnate, but they will not crash. With higher interest rates, credit will continue to polarise, and become more unaffordable for ordinary buyers, forced to pay rising rents. A swathe of investors will provide the rental market via REITS or other tax advantaged investment schemes. Watching the indexes for swiggles for years is pointless. The reasons for the ever rising prices are mass immigration which fuels low interest rates by deflating wages. Edited March 8, 2006 by brainclamp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jon Posted March 8, 2006 Share Posted March 8, 2006 The trend across all the surveys, as you well know, is upwards thats why the 12 month averages are all +ve expect Hometrack, which is likely to go +ve in the next month or two. Now ask me a better question that is harder to answer. I asked you one. Still waiting for an answer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrashIsUnderWay Posted March 8, 2006 Share Posted March 8, 2006 why are u lot wasting your time repeating the obvious to this pair of brainless morons??? OimOopNorf and DumFvckSunTosser are clearly estate agents with NOTHING to do except bait you guys... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Given Up Posted March 8, 2006 Share Posted March 8, 2006 why are u lot wasting your time repeating the obvious to this pair of brainless morons??? OimOopNorf and DumFvckSunTosser are clearly estate agents with NOTHING to do except bait you guys... Yawn. Another of your brilliant well constructed posts, adding such value to the debate. Finished your homework then? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest muttley Posted March 8, 2006 Share Posted March 8, 2006 I asked you one. Still waiting for an answer. I think he's gone home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ferret Posted March 8, 2006 Share Posted March 8, 2006 QUOTE(IMupNorth @ Nov 1 2005, 05:40 PM) The BIG problem as far as I see it is that the world (6 billion and rising) can't cope with 6 billion rampant consumers, consuming raw materials, energy and food, creating pollution etc etc at the rate we do in the Western world. The whole thing has to go bang at some point in the future. The exponential curve of consumerism can't go on forever. In nature, nothing keeps increasing exponentially forever. I've no idea, when the party has to stop, but stop it will. Thats when it all comes home to roost as it will simply be impossible to pay back all that borrowed money. In fact, it will all have to get written off. When we get to this point. Buy a gun with your last few quid. He is a bear really. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertPaulson Posted March 9, 2006 Share Posted March 9, 2006 The BIG problem as far as I see it is that the world (6 billion and rising) can't cope with 6 billion rampant consumers, consuming raw materials, energy and food, creating pollution etc etc at the rate we do in the Western world.The whole thing has to go bang at some point in the future. The exponential curve of consumerism can't go on forever. In nature, nothing keeps increasing exponentially forever. I've no idea, when the party has to stop, but stop it will. Thats when it all comes home to roost as it will simply be impossible to pay back all that borrowed money. In fact, it will all have to get written off. When we get to this point. Buy a gun with your last few quid. He is a bear really. It is (i.e most of what IMUPNORTH has said) a fair point to be honest, I don't believe the property market will explode under its own weight. Prices are 'sticky down' for the majority until a trigger forces the marginal majority to sell. Whilst we are still witnessing the bullrun in capital flow/credit availability in the UK, prices will still rise. I don't yet think we have seen a concrete reversal in the uptrend of property prices. However, I also believe that we are now seeing the end of the cheap money and 'triggers' for a correction are lining up to have a crack. IMHO I have never seen such a bearish outlook for the world economy and in particular the UK - racking my brains I cannot find a single bullish driver for the UK economy over the next decade. The problem with a low inflationary environment is that without the level of debt being eroded by inflation, it sticks around that much longer at the level where it will cause people problems if economic conditions become anything other than exceptionally benign. Given the current market fundamentals I think we have already reached a point where prices cannot rise significantly higher (without a total ponzi scheme taking off, which will correct on its own), simply as affordability is constraining the market as a whole. I don't see these fundamentals improving at any point in even the medium term future and I also believe that we will see a trigger for the crash crystalise within the next few years (until then I'm happy to rent at less than half the price of an interest only mortgage on the property I live in). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
laurejon Posted March 9, 2006 Share Posted March 9, 2006 The reason for the increase in prices is simple. Low interest rates!!!. Despite the rates rising slightly from all time lows, Banks and Building Societies backed by Government have become more creative in their lending. Fixed rates for 5 yrs below the base rate................hello smell a fish Low Start Mortgages. 50/50 Ownership (Promoted by Labour) Wake up and smell the coffee, they will stop at nothing to make sure it all keeps going up. In the future owning 50% of a property will put you in the high roller bracket. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertPaulson Posted March 9, 2006 Share Posted March 9, 2006 Fixed rates for 5 yrs below the base rate................hello smell a fish sniff..sniff..sushi? The reason they can lend at these rates is that the money isn't coming from the UK repo markets. Take a look at the volume of lending from the BOJ since 2003 and their wonderful 'quantitative easing' strategy, which has been the footpump to just about every asset bubble around the world. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frugalista Posted March 9, 2006 Share Posted March 9, 2006 It is (i.e most of what IMUPNORTH has said) a fair point to be honest, I don't believe the property market will explode under its own weight. Prices are 'sticky down' for the majority until a trigger forces the marginal majority to sell. Whilst we are still witnessing the bullrun in capital flow/credit availability in the UK, prices will still rise. I don't yet think we have seen a concrete reversal in the uptrend of property prices. However, I also believe that we are now seeing the end of the cheap money and 'triggers' for a correction are lining up to have a crack. IMHO I have never seen such a bearish outlook for the world economy and in particular the UK - racking my brains I cannot find a single bullish driver for the UK economy over the next decade. The problem with a low inflationary environment is that without the level of debt being eroded by inflation, it sticks around that much longer at the level where it will cause people problems if economic conditions become anything other than exceptionally benign. Given the current market fundamentals I think we have already reached a point where prices cannot rise significantly higher (without a total ponzi scheme taking off, which will correct on its own), simply as affordability is constraining the market as a whole. I don't see these fundamentals improving at any point in even the medium term future and I also believe that we will see a trigger for the crash crystalise within the next few years (until then I'm happy to rent at less than half the price of an interest only mortgage on the property I live in). That was an excellent post. frugalista But the median asking price has fallen almost £3k between November 2005 and now and hasn't gone back up again. The number of properties in this sample area has increased by 6,000+ in the same period. That is very interesting. The median is a really good indicator of (1) the typical house price and (2) the direction which the whole distribution is moving in. Unfortunately, medians seem to be rather hard to come by in the UK (they are the standard measure in the US). How did you go about collecting the median? frugalista Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Annie Posted March 9, 2006 Share Posted March 9, 2006 Prices aren't rising where we're looking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jon Posted March 9, 2006 Share Posted March 9, 2006 That was an excellent post. frugalista That is very interesting. The median is a really good indicator of (1) the typical house price and (2) the direction which the whole distribution is moving in. Unfortunately, medians seem to be rather hard to come by in the UK (they are the standard measure in the US). How did you go about collecting the median? frugalista I gather all the asking prices from RightMove for the properties in my area, then chuck 'em in Excel. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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